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Coronavirus.

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Peter Kelford

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'COVID-19' is the WHO name for this disease or 'SARS-CoV-2'
Covid is the name of the disease - (i.e. the group of symptoms), SARS-CoV-2 the virus which causes the disease.

Why do all the journalists have to ask two (or today it has become three) questions when they get their turn? I'm surprised the bods on the podiums (podia?) can keep up, and I'm sure the viewers get confused - well I do anyway.

Edit: I see Andrew Neil agrees with me on Twitter.
Quantity, not quality, that's how journalists tick their boxes and get paid/evaluated I imagine.

the young business people
For some reason, young people believe that they are immune, regardless of the fact behind it.
 
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Mojo

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Manchester appears to be incredibly quiet, although I get the impression London is taking things less seriously. Partly, that has to do with higher public transport modal share, but I think there is also a defiant attitude, especially among the young business people.
I love how there are photos & videos of packed trains at 6 in the morning, mostly full with key workers and immigrant construction workers in their 40s, yet it is “Londoners” and the “young” and “business people” who always seem to get the blame.

The reality is, that central London is just as quiet as every other town and city centre across the country right now.
 

Bantamzen

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For this virus though?

Why not. Given the current infection vs hospitalisation vs mortality rates, the vast majority of the population that are exposed to this virus are surviving and presumably developing immunity. And as the recovery figures grow, the slower the virus will spread, and thus herd immunity becomes reality. If this were a potential species killer, the mortality rates would surely be much, much higher even at this stage?
 

Bletchleyite

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For some reason, young people believe that they are immune, regardless of the fact behind it.

Or they believe the risk is adequately low, which when coupled with the typical younger-male low appreciation of risk is no great surprise. But to be fair, if catching it was only a risk to me I would consider it low-risk as well, certainly not enough risk to bother doing much more than handwashing. And I'm not that young (40) and have (very mild) asthma.

The problem is the effect on others of it spreading is far more important than on the individual. Perhaps part of it is that a lot of younger people living in London and the SE are miles away from their parents and thus have no real scope to spread it to them at all (same for me) and can't quite manage to extend their thinking to include older people they've never met, which is to some extent understandable? Particularly as there is often a political dislike of such people, them being referred to as "gammons" etc? (Not saying they are wished dead, but rather that there would be a lack of consideration for them as a result).

Much as I'd never like to see it in real life, I wonder how this would differ if it was like the Spanish flu and mainly killed younger people and people with strong immune systems through cytokine storm? (COVID19 can do this but it seems to be very rare).
 

AM9

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Or they believe the risk is adequately low, which when coupled with the typical younger-male low appreciation of risk is no great surprise. But to be fair, if catching it was only a risk to me I would consider it low-risk as well, certainly not enough risk to bother doing much more than handwashing. And I'm not that young (40) and have (very mild) asthma.

The problem is the effect on others of it spreading is far more important than on the individual. Perhaps part of it is that a lot of younger people living in London and the SE are miles away from their parents and thus have no real scope to spread it to them at all (same for me) and can't quite manage to extend their thinking to include older people they've never met, which is to some extent understandable? Particularly as there is often a political dislike of such people, them being referred to as "gammons" etc? (Not saying they are wished dead, but rather that there would be a lack of consideration for them as a result).

Much as I'd never like to see it in real life, I wonder how this would differ if it was like the Spanish flu and mainly killed younger people and people with strong immune systems through cytokine storm? (COVID19 can do this but it seems to be very rare).

The other issue that younger people can't seem to understand is that for every COVID-19 patient in hospital, there is one less bed for somebody with any other critical need, eg., pregnancy, meningitis, measels (thanks to Andrew Wakefield and his antivac adherants), concussion, sepsis, knife wounds, motoring injuries, sports injuries, (and that's before the all-age ailments are included like heart attacks, strokes, etc.). I doubt that most of them have thought that one through despite official bodies regularly pointing out that fact of life during the COVID-19 epidemic.
 

Peter Mugridge

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If the antibodies were the same for every type of coronavirus, wouldn't we be immune already?

That's correct - and the best analogy I've seen on the TV recently about this is that if you imagine each different virus as being like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle, the immunity would only be against the specific shaped piece of puzzle that we had been previously infected with. As each virus is a slightly different shape, like the pieces of the puzzle, the immunity depends on that specific shape matching the protection our bodies have developed.


Why not. Given the current infection vs hospitalisation vs mortality rates, the vast majority of the population that are exposed to this virus are surviving and presumably developing immunity. And as the recovery figures grow, the slower the virus will spread, and thus herd immunity becomes reality. If this were a potential species killer, the mortality rates would surely be much, much higher even at this stage?

Again - correct; the diseases that we as a species would really need to worry about would be along the lines of a hemorrhagic fever - think of the mortality rate of Ebola and similar diseases combined with the ease of spread of a cold or the flu. That's when things would get completely nasty worldwide.
 

Domh245

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The other issue that some younger people...

ftfy. And fwiw, in my experience it's mainly been younger people taking the advice more seriously whilst older generations aren't, but I'm not going to go around tarring everyone with the same brush.
 

edwin_m

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Again - correct; the diseases that we as a species would really need to worry about would be along the lines of a hemorrhagic fever - think of the mortality rate of Ebola and similar diseases combined with the ease of spread of a cold or the flu. That's when things would get completely nasty worldwide.
We are to some extent protected by the laws of evolution - a virus that kills its host too quickly has limited ability to spread. The worst case would have to include a long period when infected people were infectious but showed no symptoms, which might include people who never showed significant symptoms at all. However this probably correlates with something that has a less severe effect on average, and is therefore less likely to be fatal.
 

Jozhua

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I love how there are photos & videos of packed trains at 6 in the morning, mostly full with key workers and immigrant construction workers in their 40s, yet it is “Londoners” and the “young” and “business people” who always seem to get the blame.

The reality is, that central London is just as quiet as every other town and city centre across the country right now.

Fair, I guess that's the unintended consequence of service cuts.

I know Metrolink up here has been running double sets to help with social distancing, despite reduced service.

Why not. Given the current infection vs hospitalisation vs mortality rates, the vast majority of the population that are exposed to this virus are surviving and presumably developing immunity. And as the recovery figures grow, the slower the virus will spread, and thus herd immunity becomes reality. If this were a potential species killer, the mortality rates would surely be much, much higher even at this stage?

1 out of 5 who get this will find themselves hospitalised, so yeah, not a minor illness.

Mortality rates lag behind infections, it will peak a lot in the coming days.

The issue isn't that it is a potential species killer, it's about the people who will lose their lives, many of which would have lived quite healthily for a while, especially those below 60 with pre-existing health conditions. Even then, death rates for the otherwise healthy are considerably worse than your average flu. Plus, with the amount of hospitalisation, non-covid patients will not be able to access the care they need.

The risk is too, if the virus is let to eat through the population, more strains can appear, some of which may be more deadly. If there is more than one strain, after a few months we may lose immunity, and get right back to square one, where we have another deadly virus, possibly with a 2% death rate ripping through the population. Herd immunity doesn't work with the common cold, some strains of which are a Coronavirus!

There is also a lot we don't know. The disease itself or pneumonia could cause permanent damage to people's lungs, or leave them at risk of future disease such as cancers due to DNA damage, etc. The death rate is still up in the air, and this is highly dependent on the health systems ability to take in new patients.
 

Jozhua

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We are to some extent protected by the laws of evolution - a virus that kills its host too quickly has limited ability to spread. The worst case would have to include a long period when infected people were infectious but showed no symptoms, which might include people who never showed significant symptoms at all. However this probably correlates with something that has a less severe effect on average, and is therefore less likely to be fatal.

Yeah, ultimately, I think this disease will likely kill more than ebola has over all of its outbreaks, purely because it is more sucessful in its spread.
 

Bantamzen

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1 out of 5 who get this will find themselves hospitalised, so yeah, not a minor illness.

Mortality rates lag behind infections, it will peak a lot in the coming days.

The issue isn't that it is a potential species killer, it's about the people who will lose their lives, many of which would have lived quite healthily for a while, especially those below 60 with pre-existing health conditions. Even then, death rates for the otherwise healthy are considerably worse than your average flu. Plus, with the amount of hospitalisation, non-covid patients will not be able to access the care they need.

The risk is too, if the virus is let to eat through the population, more strains can appear, some of which may be more deadly. If there is more than one strain, after a few months we may lose immunity, and get right back to square one, where we have another deadly virus, possibly with a 2% death rate ripping through the population. Herd immunity doesn't work with the common cold, some strains of which are a Coronavirus!

There is also a lot we don't know. The disease itself or pneumonia could cause permanent damage to people's lungs, or leave them at risk of future disease such as cancers due to DNA damage, etc. The death rate is still up in the air, and this is highly dependent on the health systems ability to take in new patients.

One in five of the known cases, once again its worth noting that those people self-isolating are not being tested & therefore not counted in these statistics. Its really quite an important piece of information, that will only start to show itself when tests begin for anti-bodies and the wider extent of exposure is known. There some suggestion that a third of the people exposed to it will suffer virtually no ill-effects at all. We've a long way to go before we know the true impact, but there is a very strong possibility at this stage that it will be nothing like the original forecasts made.
 

Jozhua

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One in five of the known cases, once again its worth noting that those people self-isolating are not being tested & therefore not counted in these statistics. Its really quite an important piece of information, that will only start to show itself when tests begin for anti-bodies and the wider extent of exposure is known. There some suggestion that a third of the people exposed to it will suffer virtually no ill-effects at all. We've a long way to go before we know the true impact, but there is a very strong possibility at this stage that it will be nothing like the original forecasts made.

The one in five figure is correcting for the fact not everyone gets tested, as is the quoted death rate.

Still, If we cannot be sure of the true impact or statistics, the point stands we should be very careful going forwards.
 

Bantamzen

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The one in five figure is correcting for the fact not everyone gets tested, as is the quoted death rate.

Still, If we cannot be sure of the true impact or statistics, the point stands we should be very careful going forwards.

In the model, however we do not yet have the data and some thinking is that hospitalisation & mortality rates could end up being significantly lower. Yes we have to be careful, but both ways, overstating the rates as well as understating can have serious consequences.
 

Mogster

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Manchester appears to be incredibly quiet, although I get the impression London is taking things less seriously. Partly, that has to do with higher public transport modal share, but I think there is also a defiant attitude, especially among the young business people.

I feel the opposite. Driving into Manchester for work and back each day around 7am and 3pm I’m actually surprised by how much traffic there still is. Surely all these journeys can’t be essential?

Construction seems to have stopped pretty much now, at least the forrest of tower cranes on Manchester’s skyline look to be all parked. I do wonder if all these new tower blocks will ever be finished now, are we going to be left with a city cluttered by half completed monoliths...
 

DarloRich

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I happened to catch the governor of new york giving a press conference on the news. Clear, straightforward and transparent. So different to the uk
 

DarloRich

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You really are ridiculously biased!

Thanks. Sorry my views aren't acceptable to you. Sometimes the truth hurts.

I despise Tories and Michael Gove is no exception. That said can we have him do the daily briefing from now on please?

Calm, clear, confident, reassuring, concise, no silly flourishes and firm where needed. Much better than Johnson and Raab. The other decent ones were Jenrick and the chancellor
 

scotrail158713

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I feel the opposite. Driving into Manchester for work and back each day around 7am and 3pm I’m actually surprised by how much traffic there still is. Surely all these journeys can’t be essential?

Construction seems to have stopped pretty much now, at least the forrest of tower cranes on Manchester’s skyline look to be all parked. I do wonder if all these new tower blocks will ever be finished now, are we going to be left with a city cluttered by half completed monoliths...
It might be people who have decided to drive to work now instead of using public transport. I know my Mum is now driving to work instead of getting the train as the parking restrictions around her work have been lifted so it’s much easier to get parked. (And the roads are a bit quieter)
 

R G NOW.

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There was something on a piece of news today before the six o'clock news that there is to be massive testing. Does this mean everyone will be called to a special place to be tested even the ones staying indoors. I ask because I got worried.
 

The Ham

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The other issue that younger people can't seem to understand is that for every COVID-19 patient in hospital, there is one less bed for somebody with any other critical need, eg., pregnancy, meningitis, measels (thanks to Andrew Wakefield and his antivac adherants), concussion, sepsis, knife wounds, motoring injuries, sports injuries, (and that's before the all-age ailments are included like heart attacks, strokes, etc.). I doubt that most of them have thought that one through despite official bodies regularly pointing out that fact of life during the COVID-19 epidemic.

It's been reported that with the closure of pubs (reducing the number of drunks hurting themselves) and the lack of Sunday league matches (reducing the number of people taking lumps it if each other/over doing it) and the reduction in traffic (reducing the number of incidents on the roads) that actually A&E isn't too bad.
 

Bletchleyite

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There was something on a piece of news today before the six o'clock news that there is to be massive testing. Does this mean everyone will be called to a special place to be tested even the ones staying indoors. I ask because I got worried.

The mass antibody testing will be via simple home test kits. That's to establish who's had it, not who has it, to get a better figure.
 

9tfrizzco

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When the Italy deaths per day went into three figures rapidly(weeks ago now) I found it shocking and depressing as I knew then it meant we would be in the situation we find ourselves in now, but I am comparably unmoved by what's happening now in england as I have had weeks of coming to terms with this.
This illness is just that bit more of a threat than the idea the general populace is carrying around in their heads at any one time. My family for instance, still relatively unfazed and not taking it seriously enough in my eyes.
 
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Peter Sarf

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It's been reported that with the closure of pubs (reducing the number of drunks hurting themselves) and the lack of Sunday league matches (reducing the number of people taking lumps it if each other/over doing it) and the reduction in traffic (reducing the number of incidents on the roads) that actually A&E isn't too bad.

That is my belief. And people being able to drive instead instead of rubbing shoulders with infected people/handrails on public transport is a benefit.

However, on the down side, what I have noticed more recently when I drive to work in the morning is a few people driving significantly faster now that the roads are clear enough. I would like to see them get nailed for being so selfish.
 

AM9

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It's been reported that with the closure of pubs (reducing the number of drunks hurting themselves) and the lack of Sunday league matches (reducing the number of people taking lumps it if each other/over doing it) and the reduction in traffic (reducing the number of incidents on the roads) that actually A&E isn't too bad.
And the fact that most adults are being responsible and staying at home. However, if there was mass disobedience on the population over the stay at home rule, any spare places in hospitals would be quickly filled with new cases. A&E is just a gateway for accidents and emergencies strangely enough, unless every arrival can be discharged without being admitted, more precious beds are occupied.
 

Jozhua

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There was something on a piece of news today before the six o'clock news that there is to be massive testing. Does this mean everyone will be called to a special place to be tested even the ones staying indoors. I ask because I got worried.

Doubt it, they can't even get testing up to the numbers required to test everyone presenting symptoms. Healthcare workers only recently have begun to be tested too.

And the fact that most adults are being responsible and staying at home. However, if there was mass disobedience on the population over the stay at home rule, any spare places in hospitals would be quickly filled with new cases. A&E is just a gateway for accidents and emergencies strangely enough, unless every arrival can be discharged without being admitted, more precious beds are occupied.

Yeah, apparently after lockdown was enacted A&E was almost silent (this is from a flatmate nurse)
 

Peter Kelford

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Why not. Given the current infection vs hospitalisation vs mortality rates, the vast majority of the population that are exposed to this virus are surviving and presumably developing immunity. And as the recovery figures grow, the slower the virus will spread, and thus herd immunity becomes reality. If this were a potential species killer, the mortality rates would surely be much, much higher even at this stage?
I'm not sure how responsible leaving a number of people to die from a disease we know little about is.

Yeah, apparently after lockdown was enacted A&E was almost silent (this is from a flatmate nurse)
I'm not actually surprised.
 

Bantamzen

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I'm not sure how responsible leaving a number of people to die from a disease we know little about is.

I'm not sure how you got to that statement from what I previously said? Just to be clear I'm not saying we should "leave people to die", however this is not a species killer although it will claim lives no matter how hard we try, just like all the viruses out there.
 

hooverboy

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And the fact that most adults are being responsible and staying at home. However, if there was mass disobedience on the population over the stay at home rule, any spare places in hospitals would be quickly filled with new cases. A&E is just a gateway for accidents and emergencies strangely enough, unless every arrival can be discharged without being admitted, more precious beds are occupied.
that is certainly a concern.you are seeing the effects of lockdown starting to bite in italy now, they are beginning to get stressed out.
It was jovial enough in the beginning with singing from balconies etc, but you are seeing the beginnings of non-compliance and civil disobedience there now.

I think probably a month is about the limit of this sort of action before people get restless.
We're only a week in here, so I think for now things will remain relatively orderly, but there's no guarantee that things can't/won't go south in a big way the longer this goes on.

(most people working from home/locked in are juggling between working from home part time and doing projects around the house they've been meaning to get round to for a while, but once those projects are completed they will need to invest some time and effort into other interests to keep themselves out of mischief/occupied....maybe a good time to look at some online tuition/education, as well as a bit of some physical activity.must keep both mind and body in good nick.)
 

hooverboy

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I'm not sure how responsible leaving a number of people to die from a disease we know little about is.


I'm not actually surprised.

if you were looking at this as a cold ruthless profit/loss exercise then that makes total sense to have a cull of those who are "non contributors/net takers"
thinning out of those drawing pensions means less pension payable

likewise with medical attention/costs.
it is logical to focus attention to those of an age that they can have 30 or 40 years of productive payback time,rather than 5 years or so of drawing from the system.

not nice to hear,certainly not compassionate,but logical.
The medical establishment unfortunately has to make these kind of decisions on a daily basis vis a vis stuff like organ transplants.
 
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Bantamzen

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that is certainly a concern.you are seeing the effects of lockdown starting to bite in italy now, they are beginning to get stressed out.
It was jovial enough in the beginning with singing from balconies etc, but you are seeing the beginnings of non-compliance and civil disobedience there now.

I think probably a month is about the limit of this sort of action before people get restless.
We're only a week in here, so I think for now things will remain relatively orderly, but there's no guarantee that things can't/won't go south in a big way the longer this goes on.

(most people working from home/locked in are juggling between working from home part time and doing projects around the house they've been meaning to get round to for a while, but once those projects are completed they will need to invest some time and effort into other interests to keep themselves out of mischief/occupied....maybe a good time to look at some online tuition/education, as well as a bit of some physical activity.must keep both mind and body in good nick.)

Its not just in Italy, in France domestic violence has risen sharply in just one week, up by a third. And even here with us a little behind in terms of measures the strain is already starting to show (remembering that some people, myself included started working from home / distancing two weeks ago). I can't say exactly what, but yesterday I saw some rather worrying figures that point to future problems. As people get stuck in more, and as finances are stretched, & as many people may not receive any income for many more weeks, the relative calm that we see at the moment will be pushed more and more. It won't last.

Some, including the experts talk in terms of months of these kinds of measures. What they don't talk about are the social, mental, financial and even physical impacts this is already having on large populations. Put simply in our societies locking down for months is going to cause countless and as yet untold problems, problems that will dwarf the pandemic. Nobody in the decision making process, with perhaps one or two notable leaders, wants to risk jeopardising their contingency plans for the virus by talking down the crisis, for now they are running with the worst case scenario modelling. But behind closed doors they will already be drawing the lines in the sand, the line between mitigating for the virus & mitigating for all the other issues. They will know only too well that there is only so much people will take before social distancing becomes social unrest.

My prediction will be if some semblance of normality is not being restored by the end of this month, things will start to turn ugly.
 
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