• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Coronavirus.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Wilts Wanderer

Established Member
Joined
21 Nov 2016
Messages
2,462
Who has projected an 80% infection rate?

Someone in the government mentioned it I think - that was a worst-case projection across a prolonged (multi-months) outbreak period.

Personally I think looking elsewhere gives a reasonable idea of what to expect. UK is clearly some weeks behind Italy so if you want a worst-case scenario in the short-medium term, the numbers they’re getting is a yardstick IMO.

Worth remembering even if we hit 700000 cases showing symptoms in the UK, this is barely more than 1 in 100 people given our population of roughly 68 million. Then the death rate based on China’s analysis (thanks for the link Darlo) for anyone under 50 doesn’t even break 0.5%, and under 70 doesn’t go much beyond 3%. And that includes those with pre-conditions such as lung disease and diabetes etc. For those over 80 the numbers aren’t so reassuring but 16% of 1% still isn’t a very large number.

As a mid-30s male with mild seasonal asthma I feel somewhat reassured typing this myself. It’s the headlines that make my stomach twist, but using rational common sense it really isn’t that worrying.
 
Last edited:

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
For goodness sake, are you working for the tabloid media? It is a variant of the flu virus, admittedly one that has a potential higher mortality rate amongst the most vulnerable, but nonetheless it is not so far as horrific as you want to imply.

Did I say it was horrific? Just that I believe it will spread very widely.
 

MidlandsChap

Member
Joined
15 Apr 2018
Messages
194
I think the projection of 80% infected is highly likely myself.

Agreed, its an extremely transmissable virus and possible that 80% could end up infected eventually. But for some reason anybody who agrees with this opinion is considered scaremongerong.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,668
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...

And in other news we are about to have the worst winter in 10,000 years, the hottest summer in a million, and a cluster of moon sized asteroids are about to pound the planet.

This thread has rapidly turned into the Daily Express. Get a grip people...
 

Wilts Wanderer

Established Member
Joined
21 Nov 2016
Messages
2,462
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...

And in other news we are about to have the worst winter in 10,000 years, the hottest summer in a million, and a cluster of moon sized asteroids are about to pound the planet.

This thread has rapidly turned into the Daily Express. Get a grip people...

I don’t see that at all - seems the discussion is quite calm and rational?
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Really? Talk of 80% infection rate? This is calm and rational? Would it sound the same if blazed over the headlines of tabloid newspapers?

I bet the common cold gets rather near that each winter...not at the same time, but when it's "going round"...

I'm not scared of getting it but I'm pretty certain I will.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Really? Talk of 80% infection rate? This is calm and rational? Would it sound the same if blazed over the headlines of tabloid newspapers?

Just because it isn’t necessarily something we want to hear doesn’t mean it’s not calm or rational. It’s an estimate, and allegedly a worst-case one at that.

No point in getting overly worked up about it, as short of taking the precautions most of us already there’s precious little else we can do but wait and see how things pan out.

Hopefully Boris summed things up well the other day when he said something along the lines of “for most people this will amount to little more than a mild illness”.
 

Struner

Member
Joined
13 Dec 2018
Messages
767
Location
Ommelanden, EU
I bet the common cold gets rather near that each winter...not at the same time, but when it's "going round"...

I'm not scared of getting it but I'm pretty certain I will.
Indeed. It will go round. Most containment measures will just slow down the spread. It is in hospitals/old peoples’s homes & the like where they may make a difference. (being well into my 70s & having some conditions as well, I have more reason to be scared though).
 

nlogax

Established Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
5,352
Location
Mostly Glasgow-ish. Mostly.
Really? Talk of 80% infection rate? This is calm and rational? Would it sound the same if blazed over the headlines of tabloid newspapers?

It's perfectly calm and rational. We're all likely to get this at some stage or other and it's going to become just another thing for which we'll want a vaccination once one is developed. While we wait for that all we can do is try to limit a potential steep increase of demand on the NHS by slowing down the spread. Common sense should prevail.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
It's perfectly calm and rational. We're all likely to get this at some stage or other and it's going to become just another thing for which we'll want a vaccination once one is developed. While we wait for that all we can do is try to limit a potential steep increase of demand on the NHS by slowing down the spread. Common sense should prevail.

Indeed. Flu can be deadly, yet many younger people don’t even bother taking a vaccine until they get older. Time will tell if this applies here.
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
14,191
Location
St Albans
It's perfectly calm and rational. We're all likely to get this at some stage or other and it's going to become just another thing for which we'll want a vaccination once one is developed. While we wait for that all we can do is try to limit a potential steep increase of demand on the NHS by slowing down the spread. Common sense should prevail.
It does seem that the COVID19 infection numbers are transitioning from daily arithmetric increases to geometric increases so the impact will be felt in many areas simultaneously very soon.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,668
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
I bet the common cold gets rather near that each winter...not at the same time, but when it's "going round"...

I'm not scared of getting it but I'm pretty certain I will.

Just because it isn’t necessarily something we want to hear doesn’t mean it’s not calm or rational. It’s an estimate, and allegedly a worst-case one at that.

No point in getting overly worked up about it, as short of taking the precautions most of us already there’s precious little else we can do but wait and see how things pan out.

Hopefully Boris summed things up well the other day when he said something along the lines of “for most people this will amount to little more than a mild illness”.

The 80% figure was one, worst case scenario. That does not necessarily make it likely. Currently around 80K cases have been confirmed in China, from a population of nearly 1.5 billion. Now that's not to say that the 80K covers all cases, but China does seem to be very proactive in chasing the virus and confirming cases, so on that basis in the country where this virus first emerged, 80% infection rate scenarios seem very high. I have seen other articles in newspapers like The Guardian suggesting a infection rate of 60% if left unchecked, which it clearly isn't.

I suspect the infection rate will be somewhat lower than these estimates.

It's perfectly calm and rational. We're all likely to get this at some stage or other and it's going to become just another thing for which we'll want a vaccination once one is developed. While we wait for that all we can do is try to limit a potential steep increase of demand on the NHS by slowing down the spread. Common sense should prevail.

There's no evidence to suggest that we are all likely to get it, more likely that we may come into contact with some people that have. But as you say common sense should prevail, a simple hygiene routine, and no rushing to A&E at the first sign of flu-like symptoms will go a long way to keep this in check. However a vaccine isn't going to be ready for mass distribution this year, so I wouldn't be holding out for that.
 

hooverboy

On Moderation
Joined
12 Oct 2017
Messages
1,372
Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...

And in other news we are about to have the worst winter in 10,000 years, the hottest summer in a million, and a cluster of moon sized asteroids are about to pound the planet.

This thread has rapidly turned into the Daily Express. Get a grip people...
you forgot the alien invasion!:D
 

C J Snarzell

Established Member
Joined
11 Apr 2019
Messages
1,506
The new James Bond film scheduled for general release on the 2nd April has now been postponed until November. Clearly film producers are now having second thoughts about imminent releases because cinemas are potentially contagious environments!!!
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
14,191
Location
St Albans
The new James Bond film scheduled for general release on the 2nd April has now been postponed until November. Clearly film producers are now having second thoughts about imminent releases because cinemas are potentially contagious environments!!!
No, it's a commercial decision to maximise box office takings. Most of the income of major films comes from the first three months after release. If the pandemic reduces cinema audiences (as a part of the general avoidance of crowded places), overall receipts for the enterprise will be less, and as a side effect, the epithets of 'greatest box office on release' and 'record gross earnings' etc., will be missing when the success of the film is recorded for history and any potential awards are considered. It would be a token respect for their potential customers' health.
 

433N

Guest
Joined
20 Jun 2017
Messages
752
It is a variant of the flu virus, admittedly one that has a potential higher mortality rate amongst the most vulnerable ...

I'm generally interested to know if you have a source for that as I'd quite like to read it. I would like to see some hard statistics published on the epidemiology of this virus in comparison with seasonal flu vira.

I'd also be interested to know why a vaccine is so far away when vaccines were developed for ebola and swine flu pretty quickly - is there something in the covid-19 structure which make it hard to target ? News reporters seem to think that we are all a bit too thick to understand the reasons (or are too lazy to actually doing any research)

I find the reporting to be Power of Nightmares stuff
 
Last edited:

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
29,181
Location
Fenny Stratford
The new James Bond film scheduled for general release on the 2nd April has now been postponed until November. Clearly film producers are now having second thoughts about imminent releases because cinemas are potentially contagious environments!!!

They are not bothered about that! They are bothered about ticket sales which will be poor if we are all lurgied!
 

AM9

Veteran Member
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
14,191
Location
St Albans
I'm generally interested to know if you have a source for that as I'd quite like to read it. I would like to see some hard statistics published on the epidemiology of this virus in comparison with seasonal flu vira.

I'd almost be interested to know why a vaccine is so far away when vaccines were developed for ebola and swine flu pretty quickly - is there something in the covid-19 structure which make it hard to target ? News reporters seem to think that we are all a bit too thick to understand the reasons (or are too lazy to actually doing any research)

I find the reporting to be Power of Nightmares stuff
Ebola had beed studied during the 2014-16 outbreak and much of the research and development of immunisation products was at an advance stage. The actual treatment was introduced in 2019 following use under a 'compassionate use protocol' to expedite a protection mechanism. Ebola has a 50% death outcome, so the need for an urgent mitigation was far more pressing than for a version of influenza with an estimated 1-5% death rate. However, an immunisation development programme is running on a global scale and there are already reports of a solution working at research lab levels. That (or any other solution) will need to be put through a full programme of tests even before human guinea pigs are given it, and then there is the need to start mass production before is gets any routine distribution.
The history of medicine is littered with dire unforseen consequences of drugs and other treatments rushed into general use by mass hysteria and political pressures.
 
Last edited:

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,668
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
I'm generally interested to know if you have a source for that as I'd quite like to read it. I would like to see some hard statistics published on the epidemiology of this virus in comparison with seasonal flu vira.

Off the top of my head I can't remember where I read about Covoid 19, I'll see if I can dig it out.

I'd almost be interested to know why a vaccine is so far away when vaccines were developed for ebola and swine flu pretty quickly - is there something in the covid-19 structure which make it hard to target ? News reporters seem to think that we are all a bit too thick to understand the reasons (or are too lazy to actually doing any research)

I find the reporting to be Power of Nightmares stuff

The vaccine itself won't take that long, but this isn't Hollywood, you can't just test it on a couple of people and then distribute it. Even if it became available in the next few weeks, it needs trials & certification before any mass production can be considered. That process will likely take many months. And when it does go into mass production, it will have to be funded & prioritised, all of which takes time.
 

nlogax

Established Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
5,352
Location
Mostly Glasgow-ish. Mostly.
There's no evidence to suggest that we are all likely to get it, more likely that we may come into contact with some people that have. But as you say common sense should prevail, a simple hygiene routine, and no rushing to A&E at the first sign of flu-like symptoms will go a long way to keep this in check. However a vaccine isn't going to be ready for mass distribution this year, so I wouldn't be holding out for that.

The likelihood of this becoming 'just another coronavirus we'll become accustomed to' was flagged at least a month ago. There's also potential for the coming warmer months to slow the spread, at least in the northern hemisphere. Remains to be seen if that will happen.

Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/


See also,

You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus - Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top