Coronavirus.

[Pakenhamtrain]

The Australian Grand Prix has been cancelled.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1238240420548751365?s=20

And what a cockup to get it to that point. Everyone outside the gates waiting to get in then pull the pin.
*It's a nice city melbourne BTW. Do come and visit*

The current ODI series between Australia and New Zealand is currently being played behind closed doors.


Our utter idiot of a PM has banned crowds above 500 people..........On Monday.
Obviously starting it today stops him from going to see the Cronulla Sharks and his hillsong stuff.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think it's clear that Bojo is genuinely leaving this one to the experts, which is reassuring.

I never thought I'd find myself saying this, but watching the press conference yesterday did reassure me that BoJo was making informed decisions on this.

(Phew, I need to lie down now!).

Seriously though, it was a very well informed and considered press statement, and hopefully will explain to people why we don't need to run around panic buying loo-roll & bottled water. Of course for some it won't, and the need to getting overworked & overheated about the situation will fuel more social media hysteria. And of course one of the key points about the change in plan yesterday was to ask people to self-isolate, and if they can deal with the symptoms not to call 111 or their GP. So statistics on COVID-19 will now be concentrated on those seeking further medical assistance from their GP or hospitals, meaning this will actually skew the mortality figures as it will be mainly those at increased risk from the virus reported on. So when those figures start to appear, I fully expect another round of media / social media fuelled hysteria.

 

[Mogster]

Yes. PHE are bringing more testing capacity online so the number of tests done daily will increase so correspondingly the number of confirmed infections will jump. Prepare for more raving headlines in the media... Although apparently going forward testing is going to be focused towards those requiring hospital treatment.

 

[433N]

So, here is my personal situation with regard to covid-19.

I am mid-50s.

I have no doubt that my two young adult offspring will be fine if they get it given current medical evidence.

I still have both of my elderly parents who are now in their 80s and, I suppose, are at high risk. They have had good lives (from very humble beginnings) and live comfortably. They don't go out much, still have all their faculties and I guess they don't have much left to do that they haven't already done. If covid-19 takes them, obviously I will be extremely upset but ... there will be the consolation that there are nastier ways to go, they have had good inningses and, at the end of the day, it is nature's way and it comes to us all.

My wife, slightly more risky but she's fit and healthy and I'm sure she'll be fine.

Me. I've had a life in which I've been closer to death than life on a number of occasions. I've had four major, high risk, life-saving surgeries that have dragged me back to the world of the living. My last surgeon told me that I can't afford any more surgery and so I am now on monoclonal antibody (i.e. strong) immunosuppressants. I am on these long term (5 years currently) with the risk of quite a number of adverse reactions (including respiratory infections), the risks for which are largely unknown. Do I fear getting coronovirus ? Not much, no. Do I fancy my chances if I do ? Yes.

What depresses me on a daily basis is peoples' general lack of perspective and stoicism ; panic and hysteria seems to be ruling the day now. I mean yesterday, world financial markets back at financial crisis levels. Really ? A virus which kills a small number of its infectees (not generally very economically active ones at that) is more of a threat to the world economy than the world running out of money ? It's madness.

I'll try to remember to panic today as I sip my coffee from a 'Keep Calm and Carry On' mug.

 

[Meerkat]

If my mum gets it then she probably dies, due to her general poor health.
I think the difficult/scary thing for me is that if I make the wrong decisions (and get unlucky) then it could be my fault, and also that she might die alone, lacking care in an overworked ICU, with no visitors.
I get anxious when I don’t have procedures and rules to base decisions and actions on, so it’s stressful that even the experts don’t seem to agree on what to do, and don’t even know the basic facts about the virus.

 

[Bantamzen]

If my mum gets it then she probably dies, due to her general poor health.
I think the difficult/scary thing for me is that if I make the wrong decisions (and get unlucky) then it could be my fault, and also that she might die alone, lacking care in an overworked ICU, with no visitors.
I get anxious when I don’t have procedures and rules to base decisions and actions on, so it’s stressful that even the experts don’t seem to agree on what to do, and don’t even know the basic facts about the virus.

In terms of coming into contact with your mum, the advice is simple. Maintain a rigorous hygiene routine before, during & after visiting her. Help her clean surfaces and areas where virus might linger with effective household cleaners, help her maintain a decent diet to ensure her immune system can at least be partly effective. And this is true of all potential viruses and bacteria. Elderly people are way more vulnerable to everything, so just help her keep a regime that minimises the risk. You will not be at fault for anything.

 

[furnessvale]

BTW I am simply suggesting that the government make a few token gestures that have little overall impact to ensure public confidence is retained and enhanced.

And you don't believe that the media, opposition and armchair pundits would immediately dismantle this as gesture politics and attack Boris?

 

[Meerkat]

In terms of coming into contact with your mum, the advice is simple. Maintain a rigorous hygiene routine before, during & after visiting her. Help her clean surfaces and areas where virus might linger with effective household cleaners, help her maintain a decent diet to ensure her immune system can at least be partly effective. And this is true of all potential viruses and bacteria. Elderly people are way more vulnerable to everything, so just help her keep a regime that minimises the risk. You will not be at fault for anything.

Thanks - that is the sensible response, but it’s not foolproof, and the consequences are so serious that logical assessments of risk levels go out the window a bit.

 

[Bantamzen]

Thanks - that is the sensible response, but it’s not foolproof, and the consequences are so serious that logical assessments of risk levels go out the window a bit.

I'm afraid when it comes to the elderly (or frankly anyone who is ill), nothing is fool proof. You just have to risk assess as best as you can, and try to mitigate for each level of risk. I lost my little sister at just 30 after she contracted pneumococcal meningitis whilst being ill with influenza. I spent a lot of years wondering if we could have helped more, or made different decisions, or pressed medical staff to make different ones. But after a lot of reflection, and no small amount of research I had to accept that sometimes we can do no more than be there for our loved ones when they need it most.

Like I say, take the sensible precautions but try not to make yourself stressed because there is no one way of making your situation fool proof.

 

[Meerkat]

Like I say, take the sensible precautions but try not to make yourself stressed because there is no one way of making your situation fool proof.

The stress is about how much risk I am adding if I go to the pub/football/etc
If they could say “social distance for 3 weeks” that would be fine, but it could be six months.....

 

[Belperpete]

Just had an email from Gov.uk with the travel update for the Czech Republic saying that the border will be closed from tomorrow for UK and visitors from some other countries. Was booked on a train into the country within the next month. The tickets are still on sale but I wonder if they'll cancel the trains soon?

I understand from the Czech government web-site that all cross-border train and bus services are being suspended:
https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centr...ransport-will-take-effect-on-saturday-180270/

This on the visit Prague web-site (my highlighting) https://www.prague.eu/en:
On 12 March, the Czech government has declared a 30-day state of emergency, closing all pubs and restaurants from 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. and banning all events with more than 30 people. Most monuments, museums, galleries, cinemas, and cultural institutions are closed.------------PLEASE NOTE:------------- Citizens of Austria, Belgium, China, Denmark, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK will not be admitted from midnight on Friday, with the exception of those with permanent or long-term residence in the Czech Republic. Border controls will also be tightened from midnight on Friday. All international bus and train connections will be suspended. Stay safe and healthy and visit us in better times!

I have a trip to Prague booked just after the 30-day state of emergency there is due to end. Whether it will end then or not, or be further extended, is currently anyone's guess. The airline I was booked with has offered free re-bookings. The hotel chain is currently only offering free re-bookings for those coming/going to China and similar - will have to check whether or not they extend this to other countries now in lock-down.

Various countries are now starting to shut their borders, with almost no notice. Although this was on the news last night, you only had to blink to miss it (the situation in Ireland did get more mention). Anyone travelling anywhere abroad needs to keep a very close eye not only on the UK government travel advice but also their destination country's travel advice. Things are likely to change very quickly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Doesn’t he have a reputation for leaving stuff to the experts (or people he chooses to delegate to), because he isn’t interested in details and gets bored easily?

Possibly so, though it's debatable as to whether Brexit was left to experts as if it had it would have been canned. But hey

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am saying the confidence that people have in the information given AND the confidence they have in the government to look after us is crucial. People will look at what has been implemented ( stay at home/don't go on a cruise) and compare that with the words of the PM which were "the worst public health crisis for a generation" and many families will "lose loved ones before their time". They will then look at other countries and the actions taken there and start to wonder if the words and the actions taken here match up. Many already think not.

Largely because they don't understand that it is a delay phase (so the NHS can cope-ish) and that we are essentially all going to get it in the end whatever happens (and indeed the herd immunity that is needed pretty much requires that). The question is how long a period it needs to be delayed over, and that defines what strictness of measures are needed.

 

[Journeyman]

I'm no fan of our incompetent bloody fool of a PM, but I think he's called it right on this one - an over-reaction could have worse long-term consequences, and there's no point in that. The vast majority of people are not going to get anywhere near this virus, or have more than a minor illness out of it, and it seems crazy to act like something apocalyptic is happening.

I'm personally far more annoyed with Nicola Sturgeon, who in typical fashion is using the whole thing to score political points and drive yet another wedge between Scotland and the rest of the UK. There's no evidence to suggest that what she's doing is necessary or useful, and like most other things she does, it seems to be yet another attempt to build up support for independence.

Distracting from the devastating allegations around Salmond is probably part of it too.

 

[Bantamzen]

The stress is about how much risk I am adding if I go to the pub/football/etc
If they could say “social distance for 3 weeks” that would be fine, but it could be six months.....

In all honesty it could be longer than 6 six months, nobody knows what it will do over the warmer months when viruses like these tend to become more dormant. And a vaccine isn't likely to be widely available until next year at the earliest, so don't assume anything. Set yourself a rigorous cleaning regime when you've interacted with others, and before your visit your mum. Honestly at this stage that is as much as you can reliably do.

 

[geml90]

I understand from the Czech government web-site that all cross-border train and bus services are being suspended:
https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centr...ransport-will-take-effect-on-saturday-180270/

...

I have a trip to Prague booked just after the 30-day state of emergency there is due to end. Whether it will end then or not, or be further extended, is currently anyone's guess. The airline I was booked with has offered free re-bookings. The hotel chain is currently only offering free re-bookings for those coming/going to China and similar - will have to check whether or not they extend this to other countries now in lock-down.

Various countries are now starting to shut their borders, with almost no notice. Although this was on the news last night, you only had to blink to miss it (the situation in Ireland did get more mention). Anyone travelling anywhere abroad needs to keep a very close eye not only on the UK government travel advice but also their destination country's travel advice. Things are likely to change very quickly.

Thank you for the reply. I can see now that DB Bahn have put up a message on the website and it mentions that the restrictions may be extended beyond the middle of April.

I've also received an email update from gov.uk about the Netherlands but it just seems to be general information rather than restrictions. I think the travel to and from Europe can be rebooked but I'm not sure about the non refundable trains and hotels, unless more restrictions are put in place.

 

[bahnause]

I'm personally far more annoyed with Nicola Sturgeon, who in typical fashion is using the whole thing to score political points and drive yet another wedge between Scotland and the rest of the UK. There's no evidence to suggest that what she's doing is necessary or useful, and like most other things she does, it seems to be yet another attempt to build up support for independence.

But all the evidence shows that what she does is necessary and useful. Where do you have your informations from? Social distancing is considered as the way to go almost worldwide now. It worked with the flu epidemic in 1918 as well.

 

[Mogster]

The likely long term picture seems to be that SARS CoV2 will join the other handful of circulating coronavirus’s that we live with. As the months go by we’ll become more confidant that we understand the virus and how it behaves. Before we get to that stage it’s a difficult time. The current situation could go on for months, or infections could subside over the summer only to resurface next winter.

 

[notlob.divad]

Looks like Football has taken the decision out of the PMs hands.

Premier League, EFL and WSL suspended until April
So, confirmation from the powers that be that the Premier League, Football League and Women’s Super League will shutdown until at least 3 April. In a statement, the EFL said this action “will be kept under constant review” and a further update will be given following another EFL board meeting next week. The postponements include all matches in the Championship, League One and League Two, as well as all academy and youth-team fixtures. In addition, clubs have been advised to suspend indefinitely all non-essential activities, including player appearances, training-ground visits and fan meetings. “This decision has not been taken lightly, but the EFL must prioritise the health and well-being of players, staff and supporters while also acknowledging the Government’s national efforts in tackling this outbreak,” said the EFL in a statement.

From the Guardian Live feed.

 

[Meerkat]

Possibly so, though it's debatable as to whether Brexit was left to experts as if it had it would have been canned. But hey

Really shouldn’t start this but Brexit was a value choice - even if you believe the experts educated guessing on economic consequences they were nation rather than equality based, and the economics weren’t the sole argument.
Whereas the experts on the virus are working to the same best outcome (though risk v economic damage is still a judgment call)

 

[3rd rail land]

Looks like Football has taken the decision out of the PMs hands.

Premier League, EFL and WSL suspended until April
So, confirmation from the powers that be that the Premier League, Football League and Women’s Super League will shutdown until at least 3 April. In a statement, the EFL said this action “will be kept under constant review” and a further update will be given following another EFL board meeting next week. The postponements include all matches in the Championship, League One and League Two, as well as all academy and youth-team fixtures. In addition, clubs have been advised to suspend indefinitely all non-essential activities, including player appearances, training-ground visits and fan meetings. “This decision has not been taken lightly, but the EFL must prioritise the health and well-being of players, staff and supporters while also acknowledging the Government’s national efforts in tackling this outbreak,” said the EFL in a statement.

From the Guardian Live feed.

With the Arsenal manager and and an England player testing positive it was inevitable. I expect most professional sport will get cancelled/postponed/re-scheduled.

I play sport as a hobby and the club I am a member of has not closed but says they will up their cleaning efforts. Other than that it is business as usual unless the government instruct otherwise.

The question I have is if the government order all public gatherings/sports matches to be cancelled or postponed will they compensate the organisers? Some can't afford to cancel their events as it would be disastrous for their bottom line and may even put them out of business.

 

[Mogster]

Looks like Football has taken the decision out of the PMs hands.

Premier League, EFL and WSL suspended until April
So, confirmation from the powers that be that the Premier League, Football League and Women’s Super League will shutdown until at least 3 April. In a statement, the EFL said this action “will be kept under constant review” and a further update will be given following another EFL board meeting next week. The postponements include all matches in the Championship, League One and League Two, as well as all academy and youth-team fixtures. In addition, clubs have been advised to suspend indefinitely all non-essential activities, including player appearances, training-ground visits and fan meetings. “This decision has not been taken lightly, but the EFL must prioritise the health and well-being of players, staff and supporters while also acknowledging the Government’s national efforts in tackling this outbreak,” said the EFL in a statement.

From the Guardian Live feed.

Not too surprising as several EPL teams have players and staff in isolation.

Apparently there have been meetings between the government and organisers of sports and other large events. Some were actually keen to be seen to be helping, others said “hell no” cancellations would leave them in financial dire straights. I did assume the EFL was probably in the wanting to help camp. Hopefully they can roll out a hardship fund as this could hit small clubs very hard.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Distracting from the devastating allegations around Salmond is probably part of it too.

Nail. Head.

Tbf yesterday the Salmond story was the only non-Coronavirus story in rotation on the BBC News channel, but those over 25 might remember a minor scandal about "burying bad news"... (the bad news being buried was railway related, by the way).

 

[Domh245]

Apparently there have been meetings between the government and organisers of sports and other large events. Some were actually keen to be seen to be helping, others said “hell no” cancellations would leave them in financial dire straights. I did assume the EFL was probably in the wanting to help camp. Hopefully they can roll out a hardship fund as this could hit small clubs very hard.

Coming back to the Melbourne GP example, it's become clear that it became a bit of a standoff between teams, the sanctioning body, Formula One Management, and the promoter because of all the money on the line.

Half the teams said they didn't want to race in a late-night vote but it became clear that they shouldn't race. It was then a case of who would blink first between FOM/FIA/Promoter because dependant on who called it first would change who would be paying penalties. FOM have contracts to provide a certain number of broadcasted races with broadcasters, Promoter only gets money from ticket sales and so cancelling it means penalties from FOM and also a hit to refund tickets, FIA have to hit a certain number of races for it to be a 'world championship' and are under pressure from FOM, but also have to protect their own staff, etc, resulting in the crazy situation of nobody wanting to actually call it off until the last possible minute. It's a similar case in other motorsports as well, Formula e have cancelled all race fixtures before June, various US series (where TV rights are even more of a factor) are surrounded in uncertainty, etc.

It would be nice if all the parties could declare force majeure and allow things to be cancelled/postponed as necessary to avoid the uncertainty over whether things are going ahead, but seems like some people aren't being sensible despite everything that's going on!

 

[edwin_m]

Just had a safety warning round - alcohol hand sanitizer is flammable and smokers etc should beware just after using it.

 

[Mogster]

Nail. Head.

Tbf yesterday the Salmond story was the only non-Coronavirus story in rotation on the BBC News channel, but those over 25 might remember a minor scandal about "burying bad news"... (the bad news being buried was railway related, by the way).

Sadly I’d imagined this situation was too serious for political posturing. It seems not, Sturgeon, Hunt, Stewart et al.

 

[The Ham]

Looks like Football has taken the decision out of the PMs hands.

Premier League, EFL and WSL suspended until April
So, confirmation from the powers that be that the Premier League, Football League and Women’s Super League will shutdown until at least 3 April. In a statement, the EFL said this action “will be kept under constant review” and a further update will be given following another EFL board meeting next week. The postponements include all matches in the Championship, League One and League Two, as well as all academy and youth-team fixtures. In addition, clubs have been advised to suspend indefinitely all non-essential activities, including player appearances, training-ground visits and fan meetings. “This decision has not been taken lightly, but the EFL must prioritise the health and well-being of players, staff and supporters while also acknowledging the Government’s national efforts in tackling this outbreak,” said the EFL in a statement.

From the Guardian Live feed.

BBC Radio news was referring it to as Elite Football earlier, que the question:

Who are [insert team of choice of someone else] playing then whist the rest of the league aren't playing?

 

[Wivenswold]

As much as I hate Boris, this is one of those situations where he shines. He's focused and appears to be leaning heavily on expert advice. I voted Labour, but I think Corbyn's ability to dither and insist on 500 meetings before making a decision would have represented a woeful response to a crisis.

If you want to see how it's not done, watch US news (not Fox though), Trump apparently held up the supply of testing kits because he wanted to keep "numbers low" so he could boast about how well he handled the crisis and boost his re-election chances. Not being the smartest, he forgot that you can't bully a virus on Twitter. It doesn't care what the Republican party will say about it. This could finish him off, he's like a rabbit trapped in the headlights.

One other thing, a Harvard scientist was on MSNBC this morning and mentioned that the virus can be transmitted in the aerosol around us. He described "aerosol" as the dust and moisture you see in the air indoors behind direct sunlight. That's not something that's been mentioned in the UK, yet. Plans are in place for the shutting down of UK cities next week if need be, that's according to my contact at the Foreign Office, many companies in the City of London are having (often global) mandatory home-working days today to test systems, deep clean offices and be prepared for the worst.

I think we may see reduced transport services next if Boris raises the threat level.

 

[krus_aragon]

If you want to see how it's not done, watch US news (not Fox though), Trump apparently held up the supply of testing kits because he wanted to keep "numbers low" so he could boast about how well he handled the crisis and boost his re-election chances. Not being the smartest, he forgot that you can't bully a virus on Twitter. It doesn't care what the Republican party will say about it. This could finish him off, he's like a rabbit trapped in the headlights.

I think Jon Sopel put it very well, a few days ago:

President Trump is used to fighting from his bunker when a crisis arrives - and let's face it, the past three and a bit years haven't lacked drama. But the coronavirus is quantitatively and qualitatively different from anything he has faced. With the Robert Mueller investigation (remember that?), there were names. People: lyin' Jim Comey, Bob Mueller, little Jeff Sessions, Michael Cohen, Andrew McCabe etc. And during the impeachment trial there was a whole host of people that Donald Trump could swing a haymaking left hook at: shifty Schiff, nervous Nancy, cryin' Chuck Schumer. As Donald Trump will tell you, he's a great counter-puncher.

But how do you hit a virus? Who's to blame? Who's the guilty party? Who do you tweet at? Covid-19 doesn't have a Twitter account.

 

[bramling]

As much as I hate Boris, this is one of those situations where he shines. He's focused and appears to be leaning heavily on expert advice. I voted Labour, but I think Corbyn's ability to dither and insist on 500 meetings before making a decision would have represented a woeful response to a crisis.

If you want to see how it's not done, watch US news (not Fox though), Trump apparently held up the supply of testing kits because he wanted to keep "numbers low" so he could boast about how well he handled the crisis and boost his re-election chances. Not being the smartest, he forgot that you can't bully a virus on Twitter. It doesn't care what the Republican party will say about it. This could finish him off, he's like a rabbit trapped in the headlights.

One other thing, a Harvard scientist was on MSNBC this morning and mentioned that the virus can be transmitted in the aerosol around us. He described "aerosol" as the dust and moisture you see in the air indoors behind direct sunlight. That's not something that's been mentioned in the UK, yet. Plans are in place for the shutting down of UK cities next week if need be, that's according to my contact at the Foreign Office, many companies in the City of London are having (often global) mandatory home-working days today to test systems, deep clean offices and be prepared for the worst.

I think we may see reduced transport services next if Boris raises the threat level.

I agree with all of this. Boris is at least making decisions, ones that are backed up with an audit trail behind them. Corbyn would have been a disaster - we’d probably be hearing more about food banks and Palestine than anything useful.

Where I am there are now multiple drivers going sick with symptoms, and an emergency booking on point has had to be established. I don’t think that situation is going to be sustainable. Clearly it’s all starting to happen now.