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Coronavirus.

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Nicholas Lewis

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I reckon you will start to see TOCs failing. WFH and reduced leisure travel is going to depress passenger numbers comhoned with large levels of staff sickness resulting in performance fines
They will ALL end up on direct awards in all but name but for expediency they will just chuck cash at them in the short term. More urgently they need to introduce emergency timetables and reduced hours of operation so a reasonable level of certainty can be maintained for those workers who we need to get from A-B.
 
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Busaholic

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That's fair enough. I hope I didn't come across as brash or offensive in my asking! I think it's because I personally have one tablet every so often if I have a headache and can't afford a nap (which usually gets rid of it for me!). I did have an incident a few years ago involving a paracetamol overdose though which does make me a bit more wary of taking them - unfortunately I cannot take aspirin or ibuprofen because of an allergy so when it comes to pain relief I have little choice!
Absolutely no offence taken. I can't take ibuprofen or aspirin because of my medical condition, and no antibiotic has ever worked for me, though they have on occasion possibly made things worse! I'd never bother with them now, unless a doctor insisted. I'm fortunate in that I don't suffer much pain: one advantage in having lost nerve endings!
 

Bletchleyite

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I reckon you will start to see TOCs failing. WFH and reduced leisure travel is going to depress passenger numbers comhoned with large levels of staff sickness resulting in performance fines

<tries to be sad>
<fails>

A golden opportunity for more renationalisation. Heck, we could stick them all together and call them, let's say, British Rail?
 

Bletchleyite

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They will ALL end up on direct awards in all but name but for expediency they will just chuck cash at them in the short term. More urgently they need to introduce emergency timetables and reduced hours of operation so a reasonable level of certainty can be maintained for those workers who we need to get from A-B.

Avanti might have to think differently as there's barely any difference from day of the week to day of the week, but for most TOCs switching to an all-week Sunday timetable (Saturday service on routes that normally have no Sunday service; these are typically shuttle type routes anyway) may well be prudent and quite easy to do if all TOCs did it at the same time. That should handle a 1/5 reduction in staff which is the projection.
 
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Shaw S Hunter

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They declare national emergencies all the time in the US. Especially Trump.

This is true. It's often just a technicality to allow FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) to access the funds needed for its activities. In this case it will also allow more direct federal involvement in delivery of medical services, especially testing, as well as relaxing the rules around health insurance cover.

On a wider point it's already being suggested that Covid-19 could spell the end for Donald Trump. Parallels are being drawn with previous presidents who were slow or indifferent to the unavoidable hardship being suffered by citizens, ie Hoover's insistence that easing conditions during the Great Depression was a matter for charities and more recently George W Bush's glacial reaction to Hurricane Katrina. By all accounts the warning signs that Covid-19 was "loose" in the community were evident over a month ago yet the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) adopted a head-in-the-sand attitude and as such the recent travel ban from Europe is a complete waste of time and is just anti-EU politicking on Trump's behalf. If the US turns out even worse than Italy, which is distinctly possible, then Trump may have to carry the can.
 

The Ham

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I reckon you will start to see TOCs failing. WFH and reduced leisure travel is going to depress passenger numbers comhoned with large levels of staff sickness resulting in performance fines

Probably not as bad as the impact on airlines, bit that people will notice them going under with so few people flying.
 

notlob.divad

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Probably not as bad as the impact on airlines, bit that people will notice them going under with so few people flying.
I would be surprised if we see some of the legacy flag carriers re-nationalised. If the politicos don't get control of this the industry could well be restarting from rock bottom. They are already talking of >9/11 losses.
 

Shaw S Hunter

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I would be surprised if we see some of the legacy flag carriers re-nationalised. If the politicos don't get control of this the industry could well be restarting from rock bottom. They are already talking of >9/11 losses.

Given the growing environmental concerns being expressed by an ever increasing range of people there might actually be a lot of support for the idea of forcing the industry to reset and restart with a different set of priorities. The complication is that it is inevitably a trans-national industry but with the actual needs varying greatly from one country to another. In the US aviation is effectively the national provider of anything other than local public transport and multi-island nations like Indonesia and the Philippines have been moving in a similar direction. OTOH Europe and China with their HSR networks could arguably manage with much less flying. I wonder how much we will look back at this moment in history and see it as a significant turning point. Or not...
 

AM9

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Given the growing environmental concerns being expressed by an ever increasing range of people there might actually be a lot of support for the idea of forcing the industry to reset and restart with a different set of priorities. The complication is that it is inevitably a trans-national industry but with the actual needs varying greatly from one country to another. In the US aviation is effectively the national provider of anything other than local public transport and multi-island nations like Indonesia and the Philippines have been moving in a similar direction. OTOH Europe and China with their HSR networks could arguably manage with much less flying. I wonder how much we will look back at this moment in history and see it as a significant turning point. Or not...
I was thinking along the same lines this evening but in regards to climate change. If the records show a significant reduction of CO2 levels in this year down to the reduced industrial activity, they will be there to undermine those in denial of man's actions being the primary cause of global warming. It's strange to think that the natural world is likely to benefit from this human only episode.
 

433N

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I was thinking along the same lines this evening but in regards to climate change. If the records show a significant reduction of CO2 levels in this year down to the reduced industrial activity, they will be there to undermine those in denial of man's actions being the primary cause of global warming. It's strange to think that the natural world is likely to benefit from this human only episode.

Even if all industrial activity stopped for the whole year, it would not be a dramatic effect on atmospheric CO2 levels since they are pretty much cumulative. People will see what they want to see and it will be far from a definitive effect, if any. This graph :

https://www.co2levels.org/

has 'noise' on its long term upward trajectory. If you zoom in, you will see an approximate annual increase of 2 ppm but a peak-to-trough noise of 10 ppm over a year - I'm sure there'll be some 'experts' in the Torygraph who will be able stare at any small effect due to industrial activity and try to argue the converse ; that industrial activity actually reduces CO2. Then there's the small issue of convincing those people that there is a link between CO2 levels and climate change ...
 
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Bunsenburner

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Has anyone working for a Toc/Foc given any info about the repercussions of self isolating, or contracting Covid-19? Mine has basically said that the usual sickness policy will be implemented. This means that you could be subject to MFA disciplinary procedures. Lovely.
 

Bletchleyite

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Has anyone working for a Toc/Foc given any info about the repercussions of self isolating, or contracting Covid-19? Mine has basically said that the usual sickness policy will be implemented. This means that you could be subject to MFA disciplinary procedures. Lovely.

Wouldn't worry, the Government is likely to intervene on that soon enough.
 

AshBod

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A BBC article suggested they currently have 30 ongoing "national emergencies".

I haven't sought out a list, yet.

The list is on wikipedia but most of the emergencies in the US are sanctions are definitely not what a normal person would consider an emergency. For example sanctions on WMDs or on withholding the property of persons from various countries etc. I think it's just a way of accessing funding as Trump used it to get his wall money I believe.
 

Jimstar

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Hi all,

Just a thought about our industry and coronavirus. Is there scope for redundancies as a result of coronavirus reducing travel? Or are all TOCs underwritten by government so much it’s unlikely?

thanks!
 

Robertj21a

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I wouldn't expect redundancies but there is plenty of evidence emerging of major companies reducing the need for travel to meetings, relying on video conferencing Skype etc. Many expect this to become the norm in future.

Perhaps we won't need HS2 after all......
 

JonathanH

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I wouldn't expect redundancies but there is plenty of evidence emerging of major companies reducing the need for travel to meetings, relying on video conferencing Skype etc. Many expect this to become the norm in future.

Maybe not redundancies but some employees in certain sectors are going to have to accept lower pay or layoffs for a while the economy grinds to a halt or their employers are going to go bust.
 

flymo

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From an Asian perspective on this, well a Geordie living in Asia, we've had this thing in Hong Kong now for well over 2 months and life still goes on. People are going to work though it should be noted quite a few do still work from home, people will self isolate if ill, restaurants and shops are getting back to normal but some are still slow or closed (particularly in the Central business district), supermarkets are mostly well stocked and can't give loo roll away now but flights to/from HK are still decimated. Cathay Pacific had only 32 flights in the air around the whole word this afternoon (normally nearer a hundred) and over half or these 32 were cargo. Domestic transport is still a little disrupted, bus companies are parking buses up and giving staff unpaid leave - due to fewer commuters and no school kids, MTR trains are less frequent off-peak and schools remain closed til after Easter. As it stands schools may open for older students around Apr 20-ish. China is starting to open up also if only a little and factories are getting things done.
The Gov't here is now enforcing a quarantine for all incoming passengers from most of Europe, except UK - at least for now. They are more worried about imported cases now rather than home-grown as the domestic situation is fairly stable now. Long story short, this place is still basically locked down and little way in or out (nowhere to fly to !! ) but life within these walls is showing some semblance of normality, people are still working etc, and more returning to work week by week.
I do watch Sky News every day (The BBC stuff we get overseas is pants by comparison) to get the latest info on what is going on in UK and I honestly believe this is only the start based on what happened here. It will get worse there before it gets better but life will still go on, it has to.
 

Baxenden Bank

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From an Asian perspective on this, well a Geordie living in Asia, we've had this thing in Hong Kong now for well over 2 months and life still goes on. People are going to work though it should be noted quite a few do still work from home, people will self isolate if ill, restaurants and shops are getting back to normal but some are still slow or closed (particularly in the Central business district), supermarkets are mostly well stocked and can't give loo roll away now but flights to/from HK are still decimated. Cathay Pacific had only 32 flights in the air around the whole word this afternoon (normally nearer a hundred) and over half or these 32 were cargo. Domestic transport is still a little disrupted, bus companies are parking buses up and giving staff unpaid leave - due to fewer commuters and no school kids, MTR trains are less frequent off-peak and schools remain closed til after Easter. As it stands schools may open for older students around Apr 20-ish. China is starting to open up also if only a little and factories are getting things done.
The Gov't here is now enforcing a quarantine for all incoming passengers from most of Europe, except UK - at least for now. They are more worried about imported cases now rather than home-grown as the domestic situation is fairly stable now. Long story short, this place is still basically locked down and little way in or out (nowhere to fly to !! ) but life within these walls is showing some semblance of normality, people are still working etc, and more returning to work week by week.
I do watch Sky News every day (The BBC stuff we get overseas is pants by comparison) to get the latest info on what is going on in UK and I honestly believe this is only the start based on what happened here. It will get worse there before it gets better but life will still go on, it has to.
Just thinking ahead.
How do they enforce quarantine over there?
In the UK we had flights back from China where people were bussed to a disused nurses home for 14 days and from a cruise ship bussed to a conference venue.
 

flymo

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Just thinking ahead.
How do they enforce quarantine over there?
In the UK we had flights back from China where people were bussed to a disused nurses home for 14 days and from a cruise ship bussed to a conference venue.

Depends where you come from. There are new public housing estates and holiday camps being used to house those with forced quarantine on some arrivals, these are highly secured and cordoned off and no visitor entry or occupant leaving allowed. To be honest unless you are in one of these places then a lot of it is down to the individual to police, visitors in hotels are told to stay put in their rooms for 14 days. The Police have been checking on people that have been told to home quarantine by doing video calls and voluntary location tracking by phone but basically it is down to the individual. I'd say most people will generally comply but of course people may still need to go out for food or other necessities, home deliveries are not quite up to the same level as UK.
 
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