Coronavirus.

[Ianno87]

That will be because the deal means we still are until 31/12/20.

So it may prove to be a bloody good job we were unable to get our act together in time for the original 29th March date last year. We'd have almost certainly been out on our arse at this point.

 

[Class 466]

Currently on Holiday on Germany, Booked to travel back from Stuttgart to Ashford via Paris on Friday. Incredibly quiet out here. Many restaurants and bars didn’t even open yesterday (I’m in Wuppertal until Tuesday).

Not even going to consider coming back early to what appears to be a mess in the UK.

 

[js1000]

In another thread, there is discussion about train services being cut which is just part of the retraction of the economy.

At what point are people going to have to be redeployed to construct things that might help the fight against the virus.

A lot of people are going to lose jobs if the economy retracts - how quickly can they be redeployed in some way fighting the virus?

The thread for possible service reductions due to Coronavirus is in the Allocations, Diagrams & Timetables sub-forum:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/drop-in-passenger-numbers-sees-train-services-cut.202145/page-2

 

[JonathanH]

The thread for possible service reductions due to Coronavirus is in the Allocations, Diagrams & Timetables sub-forum:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/drop-in-passenger-numbers-sees-train-services-cut.202145/page-2

With respect my post was about retraction of the economy and the redeployment of staff in all industries (not train drivers) to the effort against the virus.

 

[AndrewE]

Talk on BBC News just now about the EU coordinating medical equipment, response and resources fairly across member states. UK interestingly seemingly being treated as also being 'in the tent' rather than a Third Country.

Especially important when the UK does not make all required equipment domestically. Ventilators for example are not currently made by any UK manufacturer.

Another bit of evidence, if it were needed, about what an unquestionably terrible idea Brexit is...when we're effectively now solely reliant on the (very welcome) goodwill of the EU27.

...which is the exact opposite of what I thought BBC radio said early this morning. I wonder what the truth is?

 

[js1000]

But.....the bit that I really don’t like is that they are talking about deaths being a month after infection. My mum hates hospitals - the idea of her dying untreated, drowning on her own sputum, with a lack of available nursing and no visitors for a month - not good.

re the calcs on herd immunity - I assume the aim would be that the herd immunity comes from the ‘healthy’ catching it whilst the vulnerable are isolated away, so the death rates shouldn’t be applicable

Yes. I have a sneaky suspicion the UK government are potentially ahead of the curve on this one despite the criticism in the UK and from other countries.

Keep the elderly and vulnerable away for a few months as these are by far the most at risk. Let the younger population - child, young adults, working people in 30s - take the mild illness on the chin. In the vast majority of cases this will be a mild illness and should theoretically provide some immunity and limit new infections towards the later half of the year.

The kneejerk idea of locking down countries like China, Italy, Spain etc is just not feasible. In the long term there is a potential for it to lead to civil unrest in my view. And once normality returns there is a likelihood that cases will simply increase again - not to mention a stronger form as happened with Spanish Flu in 1918 as there was a lack of immunity in the population.

We are led to believe France are quietly following the UK's approach of letting the fit acquire some immunity and protecting the elderly and vulnerable.

 

[R G NOW.]

It looks like all of the football matches got cancelled yesterday. As a result, match of the day got replaced with a Mrs browns boys instead. The virus is killing more people in the uk than I thought.

 

[Meerkat]

Ventilators for example are not currently made by any UK manufacturer.

The other day the BBC said 40% of uk ventilators were made here, but google isn’t helping me prove that. There is Nippy Ventilators who are a UK manufacturer but can’t be sure they actually make them here....

 

[The Ham]

Indeed, and of course has substantial physical and psychological benefit. According to my phone, I have spent 34 hours walking this month so far, consuming 10K Kcal. Most of this has been on the streets, in parks, woodland or the nearby hills. Not continuing to do so would impact my waste-line, sleep patterns, probably alchohol consumption, and likely damage my cardiovascular system and mental health. Edit: add musculo-skeletal condition to that.

Avoid all enclosed spaces is good advice. Stay at home is not.

When I was in my teens, I quite often lied about my age. Luckily I am only 69 so I won't have to.

I'd argue that more exercise is something that we should all be doing so as to have nice strong lungs to help us survive, even if we are well below the 70 age boundary.

If anyone is still smoking it'll probably be a good time to stop that too (see the difference in death rates between men and women in China where women's smoking rates were something like 15 to 20 times smaller than that of the men).

 

[yorksrob]

They'll have to keep that going for the next 2 years.

Bearing in mind the privations being considered at this stage, that seems like a reasonable price to pay.

 

[R G NOW.]

I'd argue that more exercise is something that we should all be doing so as to have nice strong lungs to help us survive, even if we are well below the 70 age boundary.

If anyone is still smoking it'll probably be a good time to stop that too (see the difference in death rates between men and women in China where women's smoking rates were something like 15 to 20 times smaller than that of the men).

Does that include vaporisers as well?

 

[krus_aragon]

It looks like all of the football matches got cancelled yesterday. As a result, match of the day got replaced with a Mrs browns boys instead. The virus is killing more people in the uk than I thought.

S4C replaced the cancelled-at-short-notice rugby match with a repeat of the 2010 match. Naturally, they selected a year with a good win for Wales.

 

[An_Engineer]

I'm in a vulnerable group and I agree with the possible self-isolation of the vulnerable and elderly, but I think it will only work for a limited time. Two weeks to a month is unpleasant, but doable. Longer, and it starts getting very problematic. If it extends to multiple months I think it will fail (and 4 months is getting towards untenable), so it is important to try and get this under control quickly. Better to introduce restrictions for everyone now, than basically telling old and vulnerable groups to not leave their homes again (slight exaggeration )

Take me for example....I'm fairly young (early 30s), but I have Asthma and am immuno-suppressed thanks to the medicines I have to take. I also happen to be a contractor, just coming off contract with no new contract to go to yet. I can definitely do up to a month with little hardship. Four months has implications:

• If I don't work, I don't get paid.
  • For 2 weeks to a month, absolutely fine (though others may not be so lucky)
  • For 4 months.......I will probably be ok, but it will be eating up nearly all my savings (yay for being immuno-suppressed). Say goodbye to the deposit on a house
• If I'm self-isolating, but not actually ill, do I qualify for statutory sick pay?
  • It's not much, £94.25 a week
  • Insurance will only cover if I'm actually ill AND under contract, so no money there
• I rent my home. While unlikely, my Landlord is well within their rights to end my contract with two months notice
  • Many elderly also still rent, so they may be in the same boat
  • Most tenancys in England (not sure about Scotland) allow for no-fault evictions
  • What happens then? It almost certainly needs an answer
• I'll go crazy after a few months
  • Crazier than normal.
  • On a more serious note, I have a very small flat. Not enough room to swing a cat. I think several months of isolation will definitely have a negative effect on both mental and physical health

 

[yorkie]

2 months at the least, in my own opinion.

It would do more harm than good in my opinion. Why do you think it's such a good idea? Do you not think it could increase the pressure on staff in crucial sectors such as the NHS, police etc. if more of them have to stay at home to look after children?

 

[Bevan Price]

There is no way I could be confined at home for several months. Apart from driving me bonkers, I would starve. I need to go to some food shops at least once every week or two. There are no nearby relatives or neighbours to help - most are at least as old as me.

 

[Ianno87]

I'm in a vulnerable group and I agree with the possible self-isolation of the vulnerable and elderly, but I think it will only work for a limited time. Two weeks to a month is unpleasant, but doable. Longer, and it starts getting very problematic. If it extends to multiple months I think it will fail (and 4 months is getting towards untenable), so it is important to try and get this under control quickly. Better to introduce restrictions for everyone now, than basically telling old and vulnerable groups to not leave their homes again (slight exaggeration )

Take me for example....I'm fairly young (early 30s), but I have Asthma and am immuno-suppressed thanks to the medicines I have to take. I also happen to be a contractor, just coming off contract with no new contract to go to yet. I can definitely do up to a month with little hardship. Four months has implications:

• If I don't work, I don't get paid.
  • For 2 weeks to a month, absolutely fine (though others may not be so lucky)
  • For 4 months.......I will probably be ok, but it will be eating up nearly all my savings (yay for being immuno-suppressed). Say goodbye to the deposit on a house
• If I'm self-isolating, but not actually ill, do I qualify for statutory sick pay?
  • It's not much, £94.25 a week
  • Insurance will only cover if I'm actually ill AND under contract, so no money there
• I rent my home. While unlikely, my Landlord is well within their rights to end my contract with two months notice
  • Many elderly also still rent, so they may be in the same boat
  • Most tenancys in England (not sure about Scotland) allow for no-fault evictions
  • What happens then? It almost certainly needs an answer
• I'll go crazy after a few months
  • Crazier than normal.
  • On a more serious note, I have a very small flat. Not enough room to swing a cat. I think several months of isolation will definitely have a negative effect on both mental and physical health

This video gives a compelling argument why a quarantine now isn't the best idea:

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is no way I could be confined at home for several months. Apart from driving me bonkers, I would starve. I need to go to some food shops at least once every week or two. There are no nearby relatives or neighbours to help - most are at least as old as me.

There is going to need to be community help on this. As someone who is relatively low risk (and lives alone, so nobody really to give it to) I am already considering how I might volunteer.

 

[nidave]

I have no words to describe the distaste I have for Trump over this action - he refused the WHO test kit and and is now trying to buy his way out of the mess he has created for the USA with tax payers money - I am sure any vaccine would be available world wide once ready (yes it will cost money)

The Trump administration has offered a German medical company “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German media have reported.

According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”.

(My bold)
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...s-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

 

[RichT54]

Just had a text from my GP's surgery saying "Due to the Coronavirus all booked GP appointments will now be done over the telephone. Do not come into the surgery".

Fortunately, I don't need an appointment at the moment. I hope I will still be able to renew my repeat prescriptions online.

 

[miami]

Better to introduce restrictions for everyone now, than basically telling old and vulnerable groups to not leave their homes again (slight exaggeration )

Not really. There's no need for restrictions for anyone at the moment, other than those with symptoms.

However lets assume we do a complete lockdown for 4 months

Then what. Still no vaccine, what happens when cases start growing again?

 

[R G NOW.]

Just had a text from my GP's surgery saying "Due to the Coronavirus all booked GP appointments will now be done over the telephone. Do not come into the surgery".

Fortunately, I don't need an appointment at the moment. I hope I will still be able to renew my repeat prescriptions online.

Funny thing, I had one of those about two hours ago.

 

[The Ham]

2 months at the least, in my own opinion.

What will change in the two months?

We won't have developed a vaccine, even if we had one to start injecting into people tomorrow, we wouldn't get through all that many people in that timeframe.

I suspect that once China (or any other country) starts to open up again that there would be lots of cases starting to spread again.

Of the methods proposed probably the best is to restrict personal contact (social distancing) and keep our hygiene up.

That would allow some people to get ill a few at a time and for then to recover before (ideally) those covering for them then became ill.

Large organisations, where is possible, are getting people to work from home. Others they are splitting into teams which are kept separate so that the risk of the whole department being out of action is limited.

It is likely that the world will look very different at the start of the next decade compared to the start of this, unlike the start of 2010 which wasn't all that different to the start of 2020.

 

[Cowley]

Not really. There's no need for restrictions for anyone at the moment, other than those with symptoms.

However lets assume we do a complete lockdown for 4 months

Then what. Still no vaccine, what happens when cases start growing again?

Do you have underlying health problems or are you in the age group that’s the most vulnerable to this virus?
I’ve just been in contact with my father and stepmother (who are both in their 70s) to say that we can run food/provisions down to them if need be. My other half is on the phone at the moment to her mother who lives in Northern Ireland and is also in her 70s.
I don’t particularly relish catching this, but it’s our parents that I’m actually concerned about at the moment.

 

[The Ham]

Does that include vaporisers as well?

I'd suggest so, given that they are supposed to increase the risk of catching colds. If you get Covid-19 at the same time as a cold that's going to put you at a much higher risk of needing treatment than otherwise would be the case.

 

[RichT54]

Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus...

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...il-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

 

[Peter Kelford]

I notice that South Korea appears to have slowed down new cases for the timebeing.

This appears to have been achieved with a high level of testing and quick identification of cases, rather than mass lock downs.

In a young population and cases largely centred around a religious cult. We don't even have the testing capacity.

So it may prove to be a bloody good job we were unable to get our act together in time for the original 29th March date last year. We'd have almost certainly been out on our arse at this point.

No, transition time was due to go until the end of this year anyway.

Do you have underlying health problems or are you in the age group that’s the most vulnerable to this virus?
I’ve just been in contact with my father and stepmother (who are both in their 70s) to say that we can run food/provisions down to them if need be. My other half is on the phone at the moment to her mother who lives in Northern Ireland and is also in her 70s.
I don’t particularly relish catching this, but it’s our parents that I’m actually concerned about at the moment.

Of course. I'm sure that Stanley Johnson has been told by his son to build a fortress around his house and that the British state will pay for a wall.

Of the methods proposed probably the best is to restrict personal contact (social distancing) and keep our hygiene up.

That's sadly not happening though.

 

[Peter Kelford]

A quick comparison between the flu and the coronavirus Covid19. Apparently PHE says that they are comparable:

Is medication available:
Flu: Y
Coronavirus: N

Mortality Rate:
Flu: <0.1%
Coronavirus: 3.5%+

Incubation Period:
Flu: 1 to 4 days
Coronavirus: 4 to 14 days

Hospitalisation Rate:
Flu: 1.4%
Coronavirus: 15%

Infection Rate:
Flu: 1.4
Coronavirus: 2.25

Infection Window:
Flu: From one day prior to symptoms until recovery
Coronavirus: Unknown

 

[Mogster]

People are grousing but at 20.5 currently our cases per 1M of population are lower than most countries with significant confirmed case numbers.

The list is too long but the UK is only just in the top 30 even with today’s confirmed cases, of course this chould change, but for now whatever we are doing (or not doing) seems to be working.

 

[The Ham]

That's sadly not happening though.

Social distancing is starting to happen, with lots of companies starting to strongly encourage people to work from home and splitting of teams.

Hygiene is also improving, with many children being taught at school how to wash their hands and many adults realising that they've not been doing it right. As such many are now much better and more aware of how they are doing.

 

[Tom B]

There is going to need to be community help on this. As someone who is relatively low risk (and lives alone, so nobody really to give it to) I am already considering how I might volunteer.

I was thinking about this, too.

Suppose I'm told to work from home or even just stay off work - I'm a healthy 30 year old who is fit, practical, has a motor vehicle. I'd certainly be up for doing my bit.