Coronavirus.

[Bantamzen]

I would say quite the opposite in terms of tests - tests and contact tracing are no longer being used other than on severe cases (those which end up in hospital, basically) so loads of cases are going to go undetected.

The effect of this will also be a significant and progressive increase in the death rate, not because a higher proportion of sufferers are dying, but because the mild cases will no longer be recorded, so the death rate will become the death rate of serious cases and so will go well into double figures - people need to understand this otherwise it is going to cause a lot of alarm.

Exactly this, and indeed it should be applied globally as most people with the virus will not be recorded, and so this will drive the mortality rate way down. People need to start learning how to understand the data, or just leave well alone.

As if coronavirus weren't enough to deal with, I now find myself having to suffer Daily Mail headlines of ...

"Let's pull together for our elderly, Britain"

Funny how there is such a thing as society after all, when it suits.

Frankly choking on my cornflakes at such headlines and the rise in blood pressure they cause is probably more of an imminent threat to my health than coronavirus ... oh, and the loss of bodily fluids which I feel are being taken.

I wouldn't look at the Express this morning then, they've got full apocalypse....

 

[ainsworth74]

The problem which has been identified in other countries is that children can carry the virus to vulnerable groups, say Jack catches a virus at school, then goes to see grandpa for the holidays, now grandpa has it. Now imagine that grandpa is a railway modeller, and goes to an exhibition, where he meets up with a few acquaintances from the other side of the country. Now they have it.

Or, alternatively, Jack's school is closed so Jack's parents who have to go to work and can't find alternative childcare ask grandpa to help out. Now grandpa has it and spreads accordingly. Or maybe Jack's a but older so whilst the parents are out he goes out to hang out with his friends anyway.

 

[bahnause]

Or, alternatively, Jack's school is closed so Jack's parents who have to go to work and can't find alternative childcare ask grandpa to help out. Now grandpa has it and spreads accordingly. Or maybe Jack's a but older so whilst the parents are out he goes out to hang out with his friends anyway.

Our schools are closed. But they still provide childcare in smaller groups for those who really need it. So are a lot of businesses.

 

[ainsworth74]

Our schools are closed. But they still provide childcare in smaller groups for those who really need it. So are a lot of businesses.

Sadly there's many things we Brits could learn from our Swiss friends but I fear things like the above are something that we'll steadfastly refuse to!

 

[Philip]

I'd say it's quite likely all pubs and restaurants and bars will be told to temporarily shut in a week or two, following Ireland's lead.

 

[433N]

Why buy it then? I haven't bought a newspaper in years.

Reported in the papers summary on the BBC news website - I'm neither old enough nor hateful enough to even contemplate buying it.

(I feel that implying I might buy the Daily Mail is sailing pretty close to the wind on forum guidelines regarding showing respect to other forum members but I won't report you on this occasion. )

 

[krus_aragon]

Frankly choking on my cornflakes at such headlines and the rise in blood pressure they cause is probably more of an imminent threat to my health

Don't worry, the Daily Mail's spent years telling us all about the health benefits of statins!

 

[Mogster]

A running nose is not a symptom of Coronavirus as far as I'm aware.


The problem which has been identified in other countries is that children can carry the virus to vulnerable groups, say Jack catches a virus at school, then goes to see grandpa for the holidays, now grandpa has it. Now imagine that grandpa is a railway modeller, and goes to an exhibition, where he meets up with a few acquaintances from the other side of the country. Now they have it.

The infection capacity of just the current 1000-odd cases is 31 million+ (WHO estimates that 1 person infects between 2 and 2.5 others. Therefore, an average of 2.5 is reasonable).

On a side note, the French government has told people not to consume ibuprofen, aspirin or other immuno-suppressant anti-inflammatory medication. It is better to use paracetamol.

From reports from China the WHO hasn’t identified schools as a serious source of infection. Schools have been closed here for cleaning then re-opened with the implicated individuals told to stay at home.

Ibuprofen is an NSAID so suppresses inflammation relieving pain. To do this it suppresses your immune system so some studies say it extendeds the recovery time of flu or cold. I tend to take Ibuprofen for pain like headache or toothache and paracetamol for relief of cold or flu symptoms.

 

[Mogster]

Or, alternatively, Jack's school is closed so Jack's parents who have to go to work and can't find alternative childcare ask grandpa to help out. Now grandpa has it and spreads accordingly. Or maybe Jack's a but older so whilst the parents are out he goes out to hang out with his friends anyway.

This. It’s quite obvious that changing people’s movement patterns can have unwanted effects also. Reference the huge crowds mingling at US airports yesterday, just what you don’t want.

 

[westv]

Funny how there is such a thing as society after all, when it suits.

Ah, that famous phrase that has been quoted out of context numerous times.

 

[Bantamzen]

This. It’s quite obvious that changing people’s movement patterns can have unwanted effects also. Reference the huge crowds mingling at US airports yesterday, just what you don’t want.

Similarly people congregating at supermarkets to panic buy. This is why its important not to generate panic by rushing to be seen to be doing something, which I suspect has been the case in many countries. I fully expect another round of panic buying here when more measures are announced. Frankly I'd feel safer in a pub or restaurant with everyone observing reasonable hygiene practices, than find myself stuck for hours in a supermarket panic buying loo roll.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Thusfar there’s already the traditional British dirty look being traded, but someone I work with says they got a “ticking off” on a train from a woman for sniffing.

Which is a bit bizarre, as while sniffing is considered antisocial it is much more hygienic than blowing your nose.

 

[Bletchleyite]

(I feel that implying I might buy the Daily Mail is sailing pretty close to the wind on forum guidelines regarding showing respect to other forum members but I won't report you on this occasion. )

Well, there is a bog roll shortage.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Don't worry, the Daily Mail's spent years telling us all about the health benefits of statins!

Do they not cause cancer?

(Note: they don't, but the Mail likes to think everything does, I'm surprised they haven't alleged COVID19 does too).

 

[xydancer]

Or, alternatively, Jack's school is closed so Jack's parents who have to go to work and can't find alternative childcare ask grandpa to help out. Now grandpa has it and spreads accordingly. Or maybe Jack's a but older so whilst the parents are out he goes out to hang out with his friends anyway.

Another Asian perspective on this...

I'm in Taiwan, just across the Taiwan Strait from where it all started. Schools here had an extra two weeks holiday after Chinese New Year but are now fully open and running with absolutely no issues. I was at a high school last week (I teach and choreograph for pre-professional students part time) and was pleasantly surprised at how normal it was. I was expecting face masks to be compulsory but not so. In fact, probably 25% were not wearing them.

Regarding public transport, ridership on the Taipei MRT is noticeably down, especially off-peak. But there's no move to cut services. The view is that it's better to space people out than have them crowding into fewer trains. Refunds have been given on unused portions of monthly travelcards for those now working from home.

Flights have been decimated. Cathay Pacific used to have almost hourly flights to Hong Kong. Now it's just one or two a day. Apparently the airport is a ghost town.

Big theatres are closed and many big public events are cancelled, but there's no government ban on them. Organisers are doing risk assessments and being responsible. Smaller 300 or so seat theatres are open. Indeed, I was at a performance yesterday, although part of the deal was that face masks were compulsory, door staff were armed with thermometers and hand sanitizers, and we had to write names and phone numbers on ticket stubs.

We have zero panic buying too. Not even for toilet tissue!

What is especially striking here is how open the government are. Daily news briefings have been the norm for weeks with quite a lot of detail given about new cases (as at this morning we were still in the 50s, with just a few at most each day, which helps). They have even put on-line a list of which hospitals are doing COVID-19 tests and which are catering for cases. The government is also trusted. It probably helps that the vice-president is an epidemiologist by training and was formerly vice president of the Taiwan's premier research institution. Of course, Taiwan has been here before with SARS, so it was also in part a case of simply re-activating existing plans.

What people here don't get is how badly (as they see it) Europe and the US is handling it, and why they didn't pick up on the seriousness of it earlier. They think it's absolutely nuts that borders remain open and that there's not even a health declaration or temperature check on arrival. It's hard to argue with them.

The bad news for me is that I have to leave by mid-April (I'm on a 90-day visa-free stay with no extensions allowed). Should I fill my suitcase with dried noodles and toilet tissue, I wonder.

 

[Mogster]

Another Asian perspective on this...

I'm in Taiwan, just across the Taiwan Strait from where it all started. Schools here had an extra two weeks holiday after Chinese New Year but are now fully open and running with absolutely no issues. I was at a high school last week (I teach and choreograph for pre-professional students part time) and was pleasantly surprised at how normal it was. I was expecting face masks to be compulsory but not so. In fact, probably 25% were not wearing them.

Regarding public transport, ridership on the Taipei MRT is noticeably down, especially off-peak. But there's no move to cut services. The view is that it's better to space people out than have them crowding into fewer trains. Refunds have been given on unused portions of monthly travelcards for those now working from home.

Flights have been decimated. Cathay Pacific used to have almost hourly flights to Hong Kong. Now it's just one or two a day. Apparently the airport is a ghost town.

Big theatres are closed and many big public events are cancelled, but there's no government ban on them. Organisers are doing risk assessments and being responsible. Smaller 300 or so seat theatres are open. Indeed, I was at a performance yesterday, although part of the deal was that face masks were compulsory, door staff were armed with thermometers and hand sanitizers, and we had to write names and phone numbers on ticket stubs.

We have zero panic buying too. Not even for toilet tissue!

What is especially striking here is how open the government are. Daily news briefings have been the norm for weeks with quite a lot of detail given about new cases (as at this morning we were still in the 50s, with just a few at most each day, which helps). They have even put on-line a list of which hospitals are doing COVID-19 tests and which are catering for cases. The government is also trusted. It probably helps that the vice-president is an epidemiologist by training and was formerly vice president of the Taiwan's premier research institution. Of course, Taiwan has been here before with SARS, so it was also in part a case of simply re-activating existing plans.

What people here don't get is how badly (as they see it) Europe and the US is handling it, and why they didn't pick up on the seriousness of it earlier. They think it's absolutely nuts that borders remain open and that there's not even a health declaration or temperature check on arrival. It's hard to argue with them.

The bad news for me is that I have to leave by mid-April (I'm on a 90-day visa-free stay with no extensions allowed). Should I fill my suitcase with dried noodles and toilet tissue, I wonder.

Airport temperature checks are woefully inaccurate. The US checks are causing chaos and haven’t found any cases. All that’s happening is large numbers of people are milling around at airports coming into contact with people randomly they wouldn’t have had contact with otherwise. They do make it look like you’re doing something though, even though it’s a complete waste of time...

Isolating people who arrive for 14 days probably is effective. But really not practical.

 

[Meerkat]

Airport temperature checks are woefully inaccurate

Worked for the Chinese, but with a massive set up behind to deal with fails (in a pretty authoritarian way)

Isolating people who arrive for 14 days probably is effective. But really not practical.

Again the Chinese are doing it - and you have to pay for it yourself

 

[xydancer]

Isolating people who arrive for 14 days probably is effective. But really not practical

It obviously depends on the numbers. Precisely that is being done here in Taiwan. If you have a place of your own, you isolate yourself at home, otherwise it's in a government centre. Given there are few visitors these days, numbers for the latter are not a problem. And if you get caught breaking quarantine - and a few people have been - the fines are big.

 

[433N]

Ah, that famous phrase that has been quoted out of context numerous times.

Oh well. She should have expressed herself a bit better then

... although isn't another part of that diatribe 'It is our duty to look after ourselves' . So why is the Daily Mail imploring us to look after our elderly when clearly it is their duty to look after themselves and our duty to look after ourselves which is not putting ourselves at risk by looking after them ?

As a species, to survive we must look after ourselves as individuals but also work together to defeat external threats. Successive Tory governments have emphasised the former at the expense of the latter by their divide-and-rule I'm-alright-Jack politics and so you must excuse me if listening to this hypocritical stuff sticks in my craw (just to mix my metaphors a bit).

 

[Meerkat]

Oh well. She should have expressed herself a bit better then

She expressed it just fine - it is just shortened as a political attack
They are casting their problems at society. And, you know, there's no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look after themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours.

 

[yorksrob]

Another Asian perspective on this...

I'm in Taiwan, just across the Taiwan Strait from where it all started. Schools here had an extra two weeks holiday after Chinese New Year but are now fully open and running with absolutely no issues. I was at a high school last week (I teach and choreograph for pre-professional students part time) and was pleasantly surprised at how normal it was. I was expecting face masks to be compulsory but not so. In fact, probably 25% were not wearing them.

Regarding public transport, ridership on the Taipei MRT is noticeably down, especially off-peak. But there's no move to cut services. The view is that it's better to space people out than have them crowding into fewer trains. Refunds have been given on unused portions of monthly travelcards for those now working from home.

Flights have been decimated. Cathay Pacific used to have almost hourly flights to Hong Kong. Now it's just one or two a day. Apparently the airport is a ghost town.

Big theatres are closed and many big public events are cancelled, but there's no government ban on them. Organisers are doing risk assessments and being responsible. Smaller 300 or so seat theatres are open. Indeed, I was at a performance yesterday, although part of the deal was that face masks were compulsory, door staff were armed with thermometers and hand sanitizers, and we had to write names and phone numbers on ticket stubs.

We have zero panic buying too. Not even for toilet tissue!

What is especially striking here is how open the government are. Daily news briefings have been the norm for weeks with quite a lot of detail given about new cases (as at this morning we were still in the 50s, with just a few at most each day, which helps). They have even put on-line a list of which hospitals are doing COVID-19 tests and which are catering for cases. The government is also trusted. It probably helps that the vice-president is an epidemiologist by training and was formerly vice president of the Taiwan's premier research institution. Of course, Taiwan has been here before with SARS, so it was also in part a case of simply re-activating existing plans.

What people here don't get is how badly (as they see it) Europe and the US is handling it, and why they didn't pick up on the seriousness of it earlier. They think it's absolutely nuts that borders remain open and that there's not even a health declaration or temperature check on arrival. It's hard to argue with them.

The bad news for me is that I have to leave by mid-April (I'm on a 90-day visa-free stay with no extensions allowed). Should I fill my suitcase with dried noodles and toilet tissue, I wonder.

What's Taiwan's position regarding shops, restaurants etc ?

This seems to be one of the areas where countries are diverging over here.

 

[Mogster]

It obviously depends on the numbers. Precisely that is being done here in Taiwan. If you have a place of your own, you isolate yourself at home, otherwise it's in a government centre. Given there are few visitors these days, numbers for the latter are not a problem. And if you get caught breaking quarantine - and a few people have been - the fines are big.

Your higher temperatures and UV are probably helping to a point also. The virus is supposed to like 8°C, low UV and low humidity. >30°C+ destroys its lipid envelope rapidly leading to inactivation. Unfortunately it can still find a home indoors and inside vehicles with modern AC.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

Findings:
To date, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has established significant community spread in cities and regions along a narrow east west distribution roughly along the 30-50o N’ corridor at consistently similar weather patterns consisting of average temperatures of 5-11oC, combined with low specific (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There has been a lack of significant community establishment in expected locations that are based only on population proximity and extensive population interaction through travel.

 

[westv]

Oh well. She should have expressed herself a bit better then

... although isn't another part of that diatribe 'It is our duty to look after ourselves' . So why is the Daily Mail imploring us to look after our elderly when clearly it is their duty to look after themselves and our duty to look after ourselves which is not putting ourselves at risk by looking after them ?

As a species, to survive we must look after ourselves as individuals but also work together to defeat external threats. Successive Tory governments have emphasised the former at the expense of the latter by their divide-and-rule I'm-alright-Jack politics and so you must excuse me if listening to this hypocritical stuff sticks in my craw (just to mix my metaphors a bit).

This part of her speech seems quite apt now
"There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour."

 

[notlob.divad]

Same here in Poland 14 day self-isolation for anyone returning from abroad.

4 of my colleagues are working from home this morning having returned from a weeks business trip to Finland on Saturday. One of them feeling unwell with an elevated temperature.

 

[433N]

This part of her speech seems quite apt now
"There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It's our duty to look after ourselves and then, also to look after our neighbour."

Daily Mail : Thought for the Day

Our thought for the day is taken from the teachings of St Margaret of Finchley.

"There are individual men and women .... "

We are indeed fortunate that St Margaret documented her wisdom in order to guide us through these difficult times.

 

[westv]

Daily Mail : Thought for the Day

Our thought for the day is taken from the teachings of St Margaret of Finchley.

"There are individual men and women .... "

We are indeed fortunate that St Margaret documented her wisdom in order to guide us through these difficult times.

The meaning is completely over your head then.

 

[ainsworth74]

Enough of the cryptic Margaret Thatcher and Daily Mail chat thank you. Take it to a new thread if you wish to continue.

 

[bramling]

Which is a bit bizarre, as while sniffing is considered antisocial it is much more hygienic than blowing your nose.

It’s no more bizarre than hoarding toilet rolls!

I suspect the reason people don’t like sniffing is because they find the noise irritating. With the practice established on the dislike list because of that, uninitiated people probably assume that there must be a more significant reason why the practice is frowned upon, so jump on the proverbial bandwagon without knowing why!

 

[notlob.divad]

This video gives a compelling argument why a quarantine now isn't the best idea:

It provides some good information, but it misses out some key details:
#1 Quarantine does not immediately bring down the infection rates, there will be a delay of between 5 and 14 days between stopping the water leave the green bucket and the level in the bottle ceasing to rise.
#2 It doesn't take into account the reduction in your health care capacity as all the doctors and nurses treating the ill catch the disease in the initial phases and all get sick together. This is what crippled the health care services in Wuhan and now Italy.
#3 We don't actually have any scientific proof that this virus leads to immunity being developed. Imagine all those people coming out of the hole in the bottle as recovered, finding themselves back in the green bucket having to go through the same bottle over and over again.
#4 Everyday water is coming out of the bucket the rate that the water comes out of the bucket increases. So the point where you try to stop the water flowing out of the bucket is the point where you also have the highest flwo of water.

Implementing sensible precautions now, short of a full quarantine, could rapidly slow the rate of water coming out of the bucket. It would also buy time for preparatory work, such as learning from other countries that are in crisis. Potentially developing some immunity within healthcare proffessionals, and allow for them to free up space within the hospitals for the inevitable peak in infection rates.

Basically, an overly simple model doesn't help. Particularly when it comes to point 2, as it assumes your healthcare capacity is a constant. When we know it isn't. It can go down, due to the medics getting sick, and equally it can go up if sensible preperations are made to free up bed space.

 

[TheEdge]

Exactly this, and indeed it should be applied globally as most people with the virus will not be recorded, and so this will drive the mortality rate way down. People need to start learning how to understand the data, or just leave well alone.

This, a million times this.

If you are only recording serious cases that end up in hospital it looks worse.

Mortality rate based on diagnosed cases: 2.5%
Based on 10,000 infections (PHE estimate of how many people actually likely have it currently): 0.3%

Stats need qualification.