Coronavirus.

[Bletchleyite]

If you genuinely can get it really mild, there's loads of us who think we might already have had it, possibly brought in by Chinese tourists. I can't remember if I posted it here, but I had something really nasty late Jan-early Feb, which lasted about the magic 2 weeks and certainly had some of the main symptoms. The most noticeable thing was a very nasty sore throat (so I thought bacterial throat infection) but I was also running a bit hot and my asthma was playing up (mild breathing difficulties - I was certainly off running!)...it was nothing like anything I've had before...so it's just possible...

It went away just as I thought "I'm going to the doc's if I get another day of this"...

 

[Bantamzen]

If you genuinely can get it really mild, there's loads of us who think we might already have had it, possibly brought in by Chinese tourists. I can't remember if I posted it here, but I had something really nasty late Jan-early Feb, which lasted about the magic 2 weeks and certainly had some of the main symptoms. The most noticeable thing was a very nasty sore throat (so I thought bacterial throat infection) but I was also running a bit hot and my asthma was playing up (mild breathing difficulties - I was certainly off running!)...it was nothing like anything I've had before...so it's just possible...

It went away just as I thought "I'm going to the doc's if I get another day of this"...

Well it certainly sounds like it, of course it could just as easily not be. However there are reports from people officially diagnosed with it where the symptoms have been similar, or even milder.

 

[miami]

I'd really like to see random sampling - say 10,000 tests, with truly random selections, to see the rate of actual transmission. That's assuming the test can detect past exposure.

The Diamond princess was interesting. Despite close quarters for a month, 80% did not test positive, 11% showed no symptoms at all, and 0.2% died. That's with an above average number of elderly people on the ship too.

 

[xydancer]

What's Taiwan's position regarding shops, restaurants etc ?

Everything is open as normal. Coffee shops (and they are very popular here) seem as busy as ever as do the local restaurants out where I live. In the mall in the city they are a bit quieter. Sports centres are all open too.

I think the only changes re opening/closing has been for museums, which are closing around an hour earlier to allow for extra cleaning time.

 

[nlogax]

It went away just as I thought "I'm going to the doc's if I get another day of this"...

Should tests become more immediately available do you think you'll get one to see if you're now a goldmine of Corona-hatin' antibodies?

 

[johntea]

I’ve been in Amsterdam this weekend which was on the whole ‘business as usual’ excluding large events and tourist attractions until 6pm Sunday evening when it was decided everything should start closing down just like flicking a light switch, quite surreal really!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd really like to see random sampling - say 10,000 tests, with truly random selections, to see the rate of actual transmission. That's assuming the test can detect past exposure.

It can't. The presently available test is a virus test, not an antibody test. The latter would identify recent exposure.

If it's found it can't reinfect or is unlikely to, such a test would be a useful thing to have, as it would identify people who are already immune, which might be rather useful in a healthcare setting.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Should tests become more immediately available do you think you'll get one to see if you're now a goldmine of Corona-hatin' antibodies?

If an antibody test becomes available (which would establish that, the current one won't as it's a virus test and only identifies an active infection) I'd happily cough up (ha!) a couple of hundred quid to find out, yes (that being what privately done diagnostic tests tend to cost). I wouldn't waste the NHS's money on curiosity, nor take a test that's more needed for someone else.

 

[Mogster]

If you genuinely can get it really mild, there's loads of us who think we might already have had it, possibly brought in by Chinese tourists. I can't remember if I posted it here, but I had something really nasty late Jan-early Feb, which lasted about the magic 2 weeks and certainly had some of the main symptoms. The most noticeable thing was a very nasty sore throat (so I thought bacterial throat infection) but I was also running a bit hot and my asthma was playing up (mild breathing difficulties - I was certainly off running!)...it was nothing like anything I've had before...so it's just possible...

It went away just as I thought "I'm going to the doc's if I get another day of this"...

Yes. Early Jan-Feb two co-workers had a flu type illness which developed into a chest infection. Both were off work, one for 3 weeks. Both have returned to work now. As you say it does make you wonder. I suspect as with 2009 H1N1 swine flu we’ll never know the true extent of this. The main differences with swine flu is are that there’s no vaccine available for CoV2 and H1N1 predominantly affected younger people while CoV2 affects the elderly. I do remember the final conclusion was that 2009 H1N1 outbreak was no worse overall than a bad flu year. Hmmm.

 

[Mogster]

I'd really like to see random sampling - say 10,000 tests, with truly random selections, to see the rate of actual transmission. That's assuming the test can detect past exposure.

The Diamond princess was interesting. Despite close quarters for a month, 80% did not test positive, 11% showed no symptoms at all, and 0.2% died. That's with an above average number of elderly people on the ship too.

To indicate previous infection you’d be testing antibody levels so you need serology test kits to be available which as I understand it they aren’t at the moment, although the Chinese are supposed to be working on it. Then there’s how good the test actually is, specificity wise, cross reactivity with the other circulating coronavirus’s could be a problem. It’s not a simple task.

Scientific efforts seem to be directed at fire fighting measures currently, checking infectivity, keeping people alive possibly with existing antivirals. The Chinese appear to be pumping every available antiviral known to man into their patients...

 

[Cambus731]

If you genuinely can get it really mild, there's loads of us who think we might already have had it, possibly brought in by Chinese tourists. I can't remember if I posted it here, but I had something really nasty late Jan-early Feb, which lasted about the magic 2 weeks and certainly had some of the main symptoms. The most noticeable thing was a very nasty sore throat (so I thought bacterial throat infection) but I was also running a bit hot and my asthma was playing up (mild breathing difficulties - I was certainly off running!)...it was nothing like anything I've had before...so it's just possible...

It went away just as I thought "I'm going to the doc's if I get another day of this"...

Ive been thinking pretty much the same myself. About three weeks ago I went down with a sudden fever and had a really nasty sore throat, which afffected my sleep for about three or four nights. And aggravated my mild asthma. The symptons did fade away but it was a fortnight before I felt 100%. So yes I also wonder if that could have been it

 

[miami]

Looking at Italy stats vs South Korea stats on age. South Korea has far more cases detected in 20-29 year olds than any other age range. This could mean that 20-29s are not practicing social distancing as much as 30-39 or 10-19 year olds. There's big dip in 30-39 year olds. I suspect the reason for that is the number of 20-29s being sampled is far higher than other ranges.

In Italy, 40% of the population is under 40, but they account for just 11% of the cases. Another 11% are 40-49 (15% of population), and 40% are over 70.

Italy results mean either
1) Older people are in positions to meet infectious people (very unlikely generally older people being less likely to be on crowded public transport means older people are less likely to be in a position to be infected)
2) The virus spreads to older people far more easily (possible, but less likely given Korea's results)
3) The virus affects older people far worse, so they are more likely to have severe symptoms and be tested (in the west)

I think 3 is most likely. This suggests the percentages who have it will be far higher than thought, and backs up the government view on thursday that 5-10k people have (or have had) it already.

This bodes very well for survivability, however over 70s are still at high risk.

More evidence to back this idea is that most confirmed cases on the diamond princess were asymptomatic.

 

[Philip]

What do people think of these theories about drinking regular fluids at an early stage helping to prevent the infection getting worse? Theory seems to be that it washes the virus into the stomach where the acid kills it. I know the WHO rejected this early on based on no scientific evidence, but interestingly the source came from a Japanese doctor, and Japan's case numbers have quietly dropped off after initially having a large outbreak, and I don't believe they have gone into lockdown unless I've missed something?

 

[edwin_m]

What do people think of these theories about drinking regular fluids at an early stage helping to prevent the infection getting worse? Theory seems to be that it washes the virus into the stomach where the acid kills it. I know the WHO rejected this early on based on no scientific evidence, but interestingly the source came from a Japanese doctor, and Japan's case numbers have quietly dropped off after initially having a large outbreak, and I don't believe they have gone into lockdown unless I've missed something?

Probably wouldn't help if the virus got in by some route other than the mouth, which seems most likely.

The Japanese outbreak was mainly on the Diamond Princess which was docked in Yokohama so counted towards their figures. It was also by definition pretty much self-contained and probably didn't spread to anyone else, as when the people on board were eventually brought onto land appropriate isolation measures would have been followed.

 

[notlob.divad]

Looking at Italy stats vs South Korea stats on age. South Korea has far more cases detected in 20-29 year olds than any other age range. This could mean that 20-29s are not practicing social distancing as much as 30-39 or 10-19 year olds. There's big dip in 30-39 year olds. I suspect the reason for that is the number of 20-29s being sampled is far higher than other ranges.

In Italy, 40% of the population is under 40, but they account for just 11% of the cases. Another 11% are 40-49 (15% of population), and 40% are over 70.

Italy results mean either
1) Older people are in positions to meet infectious people (very unlikely generally older people being less likely to be on crowded public transport means older people are less likely to be in a position to be infected)
2) The virus spreads to older people far more easily (possible, but less likely given Korea's results)
3) The virus affects older people far worse, so they are more likely to have severe symptoms and be tested (in the west)

I think 3 is most likely. This suggests the percentages who have it will be far higher than thought, and backs up the government view on thursday that 5-10k people have (or have had) it already.

This bodes very well for survivability, however over 70s are still at high risk.

More evidence to back this idea is that most confirmed cases on the diamond princess were asymptomatic.

3 is likely and to me it seems all evidence worldwide is pointing towards this.
But 1 also. My understanding is that Italy still has quite a high proportion of inter-generational households, which could be a factor.

 

[Esker-pades]

I met up with a group of friends yesterday, one of whom is now self-isolating with symptoms. Here we go....

 

[yorksrob]

Everything is open as normal. Coffee shops (and they are very popular here) seem as busy as ever as do the local restaurants out where I live. In the mall in the city they are a bit quieter. Sports centres are all open too.

I think the only changes re opening/closing has been for museums, which are closing around an hour earlier to allow for extra cleaning time.

Ah, thanks for the info

 

[Bletchleyite]

But 1 also. My understanding is that Italy still has quite a high proportion of inter-generational households, which could be a factor.

There is likely something in this.

In the UK, other than London, we are mostly a country of house dwellers and live in generally very low density housing, with mostly one front door per family. We also typically don't have multi-generational households - you do get "granny flats" but again they tend to have separate front doors.

So you can't catch it off the communal block stairwell banister, nor as easily give it to your Gran.

We also don't tend towards hugging and kissing on meeting people, or not anything like the extent they do in the Romance countries.

And we don't do big family meals all the time either. In most households people rarely sit down at the table together.

All this (despite often being considered downsides of British culture) does reduce the opportunities for spread.

 

[The Ham]

It provides some good information, but it misses out some key details:
#1 Quarantine does not immediately bring down the infection rates, there will be a delay of between 5 and 14 days between stopping the water leave the green bucket and the level in the bottle ceasing to rise.
#2 It doesn't take into account the reduction in your health care capacity as all the doctors and nurses treating the ill catch the disease in the initial phases and all get sick together. This is what crippled the health care services in Wuhan and now Italy.
#3 We don't actually have any scientific proof that this virus leads to immunity being developed. Imagine all those people coming out of the hole in the bottle as recovered, finding themselves back in the green bucket having to go through the same bottle over and over again.
#4 Everyday water is coming out of the bucket the rate that the water comes out of the bucket increases. So the point where you try to stop the water flowing out of the bucket is the point where you also have the highest flwo of water.

Implementing sensible precautions now, short of a full quarantine, could rapidly slow the rate of water coming out of the bucket. It would also buy time for preparatory work, such as learning from other countries that are in crisis. Potentially developing some immunity within healthcare proffessionals, and allow for them to free up space within the hospitals for the inevitable peak in infection rates.

Basically, an overly simple model doesn't help. Particularly when it comes to point 2, as it assumes your healthcare capacity is a constant. When we know it isn't. It can go down, due to the medics getting sick, and equally it can go up if sensible preperations are made to free up bed space.

Any such video is going to be overly simplistic.

However any such plan to bring in Quarantine would likely be mindful that cases would continent to rise. The main point of the video is that the time to start Quarantine isn't when the number of cases is low.

With regards to healthcare, whilst it's true that there will be a reduction in staff it would also be true that there are steps to cater for this:
- use army medics
- cut some services
- less medics needed on duty at major events
- possibly better use of time due to telephone consultations (no waiting for people to turn up).

The risk of secondary infections is unknown for sure, but there's been some evidence that reinfection in some/many cases was down to the testing not being that reliable.

The rate of cases is going to get higher the longer it goes by, and so you (as indicated above) need to begin quarantine well before you actually reach the capacity limit. However again this needs to be later than where we are at now.

 

[bahnause]

Switzerland will probably "shut down" tonight or tomorrow morning. I expect public transport to be cut in half by the beginning of the next week.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

Anyone who is waiting for a non-urgent elective operation on the NHS is likely to have it cancelled/postponed

 

[The Ham]

There is likely something in this.

In the UK, other than London, we are mostly a country of house dwellers and live in generally very low density housing, with mostly one front door per family. We also typically don't have multi-generational households - you do get "granny flats" but again they tend to have separate front doors.

So you can't catch it off the communal block stairwell banister, nor as easily give it to your Gran.

We also don't tend towards hugging and kissing on meeting people, or not anything like the extent they do in the Romance countries.

And we don't do big family meals all the time either. In most households people rarely sit down at the table together.

All this (despite often being considered downsides of British culture) does reduce the opportunities for spread.

Someone joked that being British was going to save us, given that even close friends often nod and day "alright mate". No Physical contact or long conversations.

We don't even like making eye contact!

 

[The Ham]

The bad news for me is that I have to leave by mid-April (I'm on a 90-day visa-free stay with no extensions allowed). Should I fill my suitcase with dried noodles and toilet tissue, I wonder.

Yes, even if you just sell it onto others...

 

[miami]

The bad news for me is that I have to leave by mid-April (I'm on a 90-day visa-free stay with no extensions allowed). Should I fill my suitcase with dried noodles and toilet tissue, I wonder.

If you can leave. They may start offering humanitarian visa extensions

 

[bramling]

There is likely something in this.

In the UK, other than London, we are mostly a country of house dwellers and live in generally very low density housing, with mostly one front door per family. We also typically don't have multi-generational households - you do get "granny flats" but again they tend to have separate front doors.

So you can't catch it off the communal block stairwell banister, nor as easily give it to your Gran.

We also don't tend towards hugging and kissing on meeting people, or not anything like the extent they do in the Romance countries.

And we don't do big family meals all the time either. In most households people rarely sit down at the table together.

All this (despite often being considered downsides of British culture) does reduce the opportunities for spread.

I don’t see any of these things as downsides, in fact the current situation demonstrates positives from them.

Going forward I suspect there will be a backlash against the densification of British society, something which has been enforced by certain politicians like Sadiq Khan rather than something British people have ever really desired to happen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

T'railway is nice and quiet. It's a bit like it was in the 1990s - table to yourself easily. Well, for most of the journey, until I was joined by someone snivelling away with a cold, cheers, just what I need when COVID19's knocking around as well.

And, with a tickle in my nose, it appears the so-and-so has indeed given me said cold[1]. Just what I need with COVID19 knocking around as well, it must be hell if you get both at once. Cheers, mate.

[1] Well, I suppose I could say I have coronavirus, as the cold is one

 

[Mogster]

Any such video is going to be overly simplistic.

However any such plan to bring in Quarantine would likely be mindful that cases would continent to rise. The main point of the video is that the time to start Quarantine isn't when the number of cases is low.

With regards to healthcare, whilst it's true that there will be a reduction in staff it would also be true that there are steps to cater for this:
- use army medics
- cut some services
- less medics needed on duty at major events
- possibly better use of time due to telephone consultations (no waiting for people to turn up).

The risk of secondary infections is unknown for sure, but there's been some evidence that reinfection in some/many cases was down to the testing not being that reliable.

The rate of cases is going to get higher the longer it goes by, and so you (as indicated above) need to begin quarantine well before you actually reach the capacity limit. However again this needs to be later than where we are at now.

How do you actually enforce quarantine in a society like ours anyway. You can close “non essential” businesses like restaurants, bars and sports clubs but after that? People need to buy food and essentials, people need to work to supply these life essentials and healthcare.

The absolute last thing you want is civil unrest... There’s a video circulating of British holidaymakers and expats arguing with the Spanish police in Benidorm... Close the bars if you feel it’s necessary but what’s the purpose of aggressively preventing people walking on the beach in March?

 

[Domh245]

You can close “non essential” businesses like restaurants, bars and sports clubs but after that? People need to buy food and essentials, people need to work to supply these life essentials and healthcare.

Looking at countries that have enforced quarantines, food stores and pharmacies are still open, so I'd expect a similar situation here if (when) we go into 'lockdown'

 

[Bletchleyite]

From the other thread:

My father is in his 80s and I fear that someone will need to tie him in his chair!

An interesting question is whether over 70s should be able to give an effective "do not resuscitate" instruction, i.e. refuse the quarantine on the basis that they will not receive NHS treatment if they do get it? If I was elderly and in poor health it might be a far better way to go than some of the other options, and there will be people who if they aren't taken out by this it'll be next winter's flu.

On a wider basis I'm already thinking about things like that (I'm only 40!) - what I mean is if I'm in hospital with it and I know there is a ventilator shortage should I decline one in favour of someone with children, say? It's a bit morbid but it's worth thinking about.

 

[Mogster]

Without sounding callous I do wonder how many of the people who are now being reported as Coronavirus “related” deaths would have died anyway, or certainly would have died from “normal” seasonal cold or flu. I understand the need for transparency but Coronavirus isn’t necessarily even the primary cause of these deaths.

After all 1500 people die in the UK every day and routine mortality hasn’t been suspended for Coronavirus.