Could Covid-19 impact on the Scotrail HST project?

[Northhighland]

Moderator note: Split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/scotrail-hst-introduction-updates-discussion.137911/

The virus could be a significant blow to the HST project. I travel weekly or fortnightly on the HML as do others in my office. We have used technology to carry out meetings for years but we’re always hampered by lack of same adoption by colleagues, customers, suppliers in the central belt.

They have now at last got it. They are all using it and doing so productively. I won’t be going back to 5:30 starts again. Neither will my co workers.

Neither will those we do business with be travelling to Inverness.

I think this going to have a major impact. The capacity the HST provides may not be needed.

 

[Highland37]

That was going to happen either way and the current situation has forced the issue.

Leisure travel will form a bigger proportion I think.

 

[Steven_G]

Contracts are signed so what’s been asked pre lockdown will be delivered. ScotRail could increase number of 4 carriage sets rather than have any 5.

But ultimately, the refurb project will complete and any DMU’s they replace will be reallocated or go back to leasing company.

 

[InOban]

Third time lucky? Hope so.

How much of the off season traffic to Inverness and Aberdeen was the sort of business travel which could be affected by the belated discovery of the internet?

 

[BRX]

The right response to a reduction in travel demand would be to cancel the A9 widening.

 

[47827]

Third time lucky? Hope so.

How much of the off season traffic to Inverness and Aberdeen was the sort of business travel which could be affected by the belated discovery of the internet?

There is a possibility that summer of next year will see an increase in what they term staycation holidays with some increased nervousness about foreign travel, a reduced airline industry etc. and possibly less cheap flights due to reduced departures for the next few years. That assumes all countries will even be over the virus by next summer. Whilst many will use cars now as that habit seems to be becoming popular again via social distancing it's still possible there will be healthy loadings on internal Scottish Intercity routes over the summer period. The rest of the time people will still be nervous and perhaps prefer a 50% full hst rather than a packed 2 car 158 when there is a lifting of all or most restrictions eventually. Technology is OK but sometimes face to face meetings are still more useful than relying on connections and there being no background distractions in everybody's households (e.g noisy toddlers, barking dogs, jumping cats and unscheduled knocks at the door) so not everyone and every business will operate that way. Also for those who don't do office/admin work they cannot all simply work from home if they have to deal with customers in person. I think there is a healthy balance between home and face to face work patterns and wouldn't wish to be restricted to do only 1 or the other. And for employers recruiting, mentoring or appraising employees doing everything over an Internet connection just wouldn't suit everyone all of the time.

Effectively we are about to see a reset button being pressed both in travel demand and other behaviours. It could be akin to putting passenger numbers back in time to say 10, 15 or 20 years ago or even longer. But as pressure comes to get people back onto public transport for the good of the environment and to reduce car emissions (which is something that may shoot up post lockdown) the railways will see loadings steadily rise again especially if there is a drive to revive the economy following a long recession. In the meantime big subsidies and service cuts on some routes where use has declined the most are likely with some older and a little bit of newer rolling stock going into store or even ending its lives early.

So in terms of hst use in Scotland, agree or disagree with their use, there is still likely to be merit in the medium term to completing a plan that is a little to advanced to pull the plug on and getting at least several years out of them up until the next big spend is needed and decisions have to be taken. At least by then we should know what way the country is going longer term.

 

[route:oxford]

The virus could be a significant blow to the HST project. I travel weekly or fortnightly on the HML as do others in my office. We have used technology to carry out meetings for years but we’re always hampered by lack of same adoption by colleagues, customers, suppliers in the central belt.

They have now at last got it. They are all using it and doing so productively. I won’t be going back to 5:30 starts again. Neither will my co workers.

Neither will those we do business with be travelling to Inverness.

I think this going to have a major impact. The capacity the HST provides may not be needed.

You say that now, but if your competitors are turning up on your customer's doorstep with a few tubs of M&S chocolate mini rolls for the office kitchen and supporting the local businesses by taking the team out for lunch - you'll be 150 miles away waiting for them to respond to a diary request.

 

[scotrail158713]

I think this going to have a major impact. The capacity the HST provides may not be needed.

In the short term that may be no bad thing though - it’s more room for social distancing.
In the long term I also believe it will be needed. As mentioned already, there’ll likely be an increase in “staycations” where a number of people will choose to travel by train. I know that I have always wanted to travel the HML as well as the other rural Scottish lines, but never got round to it. However when the restrictions are lifted it seems like it’ll the perfect time to do it.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The right response to a reduction in travel demand would be to cancel the A9 widening.

Hear hear.

Contracts are signed so what’s been asked pre lockdown will be delivered. ScotRail could increase number of 4 carriage sets rather than have any 5.

if social distancing is the new norm should that not be the other way- more 5 car sets?

 

[Northhighland]

You say that now, but if your competitors are turning up on your customer's doorstep with a few tubs of M&S chocolate mini rolls for the office kitchen and supporting the local businesses by taking the team out for lunch - you'll be 150 miles away waiting for them to respond to a diary request.

Doesn't really work like that here. People are realising how much more productive you can be without the travelling. Savings are huge.

Our industry we don’t do all that lunching stuff. Doesn’t work that way. The world has changed business travel will most likely never go back to what it was. Office space will be seen as a cost that can be cut. Space will be reduced as companies struggle to get to grips with newmodels of work and a recession.

 

[the sniper]

The right response to a reduction in travel demand would be to cancel the A9 widening.

Given that people will be abandoning public transport wherever possible for the foreseeable future, I'm sure all those who'll be spending hours driving up and down the A9 will be more desperate than ever not to have to crawl along at 47mph behind lorries... I hope there's still money for it.

 

[37424]

Given that people will be abandoning public transport wherever possible for the foreseeable future, I'm sure all those who'll be spending hours driving up and down the A9 will be more desperate than ever not to have to crawl along at 47mph behind lorries... I hope there's still money for it.

Indeed Public Transport is a risk not worth taking if can avoid it at present especially if your in the older age range, we don't know how long a vaccine will take and even if we can get an effective one, assuming that we do get one by next year I'm not sure I will be rushing back to the train or bus now.

Last time I went to Scotland I did a trip around the Far North coast, I went by Train to Inverness then hired a car, I want to do a similar trip in the future but I will taking my own car.

 

[BRX]

Given that people will be abandoning public transport wherever possible for the foreseeable future, I'm sure all those who'll be spending hours driving up and down the A9 will be more desperate than ever not to have to crawl along at 47mph behind lorries... I hope there's still money for it.

While it looks like 'social distancing' and virus nervousness is going to be with us for a while, let's hope it's not going to be on the same timescale as the A9 dualling will/would require.

Many cities (somewhat to my surprise) around the world appear to be taking a positive approach to post-corona transport: rather than bracing themselves for mass car use and a return to heavy congestion and pollution, they are looking at schemes that provide safe alternatives, by re-allocating road space to pedestrians and cyclists. It might be that the effect of the covid crisis is to push forward a reduction in car dependancy, something that is being pushed for in cities anyway.

I hope the opposite doesn't happen in rural areas such as the highlands - with the already scant public transport given up on, and things thrown backwards by many years instead.

 

[Mag_seven]

Can I remind everyone that this thread is for the discussion of the impact of COVID-19 on the Scotrail HST Project.
If anyone else wants to discuss anything else they are welcome to start a new thread in the appropriate forum. Thanks.

 

[Highland37]

The right response to a reduction in travel demand would be to cancel the A9 widening.

That is not going to happen as there is huge public support for it.