Could HS2 lead to airport closures or consolidations? If so where/how?

[David Goddard]

Living in the Thames Valley we are constantly hearing about the debate over the additional runway at Heathrow, further growth for our busiest airport, which will need even more supporting infrastructure, but with HS2 improving connectivity to Birmingham I have long thought that the midlands airport would be a better site for the additional runway, which could then be developed to relieve LHR as well as being more convenient for the rest of the country who would otherwise have to go down to London.

The ability of the two sites to then compliment each other at times of disruption (dropping a Heathrow flight from the US at Birmingham will be less inconvenient than sending it to Gatwick as people can then use HS2 & connections to complete their journey).

 

[Purple Orange]

Living in the Thames Valley we are constantly hearing about the debate over the additional runway at Heathrow, further growth for our busiest airport, which will need even more supporting infrastructure, but with HS2 improving connectivity to Birmingham I have long thought that the midlands airport would be a better site for the additional runway, which could then be developed to relieve LHR as well as being more convenient for the rest of the country who would otherwise have to go down to London.

The ability of the two sites to then compliment each other at times of disruption (dropping a Heathrow flight from the US at Birmingham will be less inconvenient than sending it to Gatwick as people can then use HS2 & connections to complete their journey).

I don’t see Birmingham airport playing that role at all. If there is disruption, many flights would be redirected and where is best to process multiple planes with 200-300 people on board? Stansted & Gatwick would prove to be a better fit still.

 

[Bald Rick]

Living in the Thames Valley we are constantly hearing about the debate over the additional runway at Heathrow, further growth for our busiest airport, which will need even more supporting infrastructure, but with HS2 improving connectivity to Birmingham I have long thought that the midlands airport would be a better site for the additional runway, which could then be developed to relieve LHR as well as being more convenient for the rest of the country who would otherwise have to go down to London.

The ability of the two sites to then compliment each other at times of disruption (dropping a Heathrow flight from the US at Birmingham will be less inconvenient than sending it to Gatwick as people can then use HS2 & connections to complete their journey).

Building a second runway at Birmingham is not easy, as it couldn’t be near the current one.

However, making more use of the existing runway is entirely possible. In 2019 it had 36% of the air traffic movements, and 27% of the passengers of Gatwick, also a single runway airport. It could more than double in size before a new runway is needed. I know the airport is certainly banking on picking up some of the ‘overspill’ from Heathrow when HS2 is open. From the West End of London it will be quicker to get there than to Stansted (Elizabeth line to OOC in 9 mins from TCR, HS2 32 mins). And at some times of the day it probably won’t be that much more expensive. There’s no doubt BHX will benefit from HS2. Stansted are worried!

I don’t see Birmingham airport playing that role at all. If there is disruption, many flights would be redirected and where is best to process multiple planes with 200-300 people on board? Stansted & Gatwick would prove to be a better fit still.

Birmingham already is the alternate airport for many Heathrow flights at times of disruption. It has the capability (pre Covid it handled A380s from Dubai and several long haul flights from Asia) and the spare capacity. Gatwick has very little spare, and while Stansted does, it’s not that much in terms of terminal / stand capacity.

 

[The Planner]

Building a second runway at Birmingham is not easy, as it couldn’t be near the current one.

Indeed, I think their aspiration is to build it on the other side of the A452 on the Packington Estate.

 

[Bald Rick]

Indeed, I think their aspiration is to build it on the other side of the A452 on the Packington Estate.

Yep - it would effectively be a different airport as far as the passenger is concerned.

 

[edwin_m]

Yep - it would effectively be a different airport as far as the passenger is concerned.

Some pretty hefty engineering needed to get the planes from one to the other past all the roads, railways, the NEC and HS2 station in between. Might end up as two separate airports as far as the planes are concerned too?

 

[Bald Rick]

Some pretty hefty engineering needed to get the planes from one to the other past all the roads, railways, the NEC and HS2 station in between. Might end up as two separate airports as far as the planes are concerned too?

Yes, I think that was the plan. Although, for clarity, that plan has now been officially dropped.

 

[class26]

Indeed, I think their aspiration is to build it on the other side of the A452 on the Packington Estate.

deleted

 

[Purple Orange]

Birmingham already is the alternate airport for many Heathrow flights at times of disruption. It has the capability (pre Covid it handled A380s from Dubai and several long haul flights from Asia) and the spare capacity. Gatwick has very little spare, and while Stansted does, it’s not that much in terms of terminal / stand capacity.

BHX is one of many alternatives for Heathrow and not the alternative, which is kind of the point here.

 

[class26]

BHX is one of many alternatives for Heathrow and not the alternative, which is kind of the point here.

Now maybe but when HS2 is open it will be easier and quicker to reach from parts of London than Heathrow and quicker than Luton or Stansted
It also has better facilities than say Luton which long haul carriers demand.

 

[fishwomp]

Now maybe but when HS2 is open it will be easier and quicker to reach from parts of London than Heathrow and quicker than Luton or Stansted
It also has better facilities than say Luton which long haul carriers demand.

Will it? Everything has to channel via Euston or OOC..! if you're south west of the London, not a chance.... and everywhere else it's less convenient (no turn up and go like the underground or other public transport) but near exact same journey time as LHR.

Journey Time from Euston to BHX -> 40 mins on HS2 (?)
Journey Time from Central London to LHR -> 45-55 mins on Piccadilly (a number of station options to depart from); 20 mins on HEX ex Pad.

.. and then the ticket price - versus the tube?

Sure, if the Northern section is opened, Birmingham Interchange will be closer to Leeds and Sheffield than Manchester airport is to those I'd expect, but not by much and then what about the price again..? However, the intermediate towns don't see a benefit from HS2 to journey times and will continue to go to Manchester.

Luton/Stansted/Gatwick have their issues - but they're already in the 45m - 1 hour from London terminus territory and significantly closer for the stations en route, they won't be quaking about this.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Just as a note, my original premise behind this thread wasn't that air travel would be replaced by HS2 - some of it will (I could see Manchester-London flights ending) but not all of it. It was more that if HS2 makes getting to an alternative easier, it could cause some consolidation.

The idea of Luton being threatened by easyJet moving away is I guess not really HS2-related - more that it's known it is interested in moving to LHR and has been for years, and COVID might give it an "in" if it leaves spare slots.

 

[Purple Orange]

Will it? Everything has to channel via Euston or OOC..! if you're south west of the London, not a chance.... and everywhere else it's less convenient (no turn up and go like the underground or other public transport) but near exact same journey time as LHR.

Journey Time from Euston to BHX -> 40 mins on HS2 (?)
Journey Time from Central London to LHR -> 45-55 mins on Piccadilly (a number of station options to depart from); 20 mins on HEX ex Pad.

.. and then the ticket price - versus the tube?

Sure, if the Northern section is opened, Birmingham Interchange will be closer to Leeds and Sheffield than Manchester airport is to those I'd expect, but not by much and then what about the price again..? However, the intermediate towns don't see a benefit from HS2 to journey times and will continue to go to Manchester.

Luton/Stansted/Gatwick have their issues - but they're already in the 45m - 1 hour from London terminus territory and significantly closer for the stations en route, they won't be quaking about this.

Upon completion of phase 2b to Leeds, the Trans Pennine route upgrade would have been completed and a connection to the Piccadilly HS2 station would be up and running, giving a minimum time of 45 mins on a turn up and go service vs 49 mins on a 3 tph service. The biggest ‘threat’ to MAN would be the fact that Heathrow is just a smidge longer on the tra8n plus a change which is not that much of a hassle.

 

[fishwomp]

Upon completion of phase 2b to Leeds, the Trans Pennine route upgrade would have been completed and a connection to the Piccadilly HS2 station would be up and running, giving a minimum time of 45 mins on a turn up and go service vs 49 mins on a 3 tph service. The biggest ‘threat’ to MAN would be the fact that Heathrow is just a smidge longer on the tra8n plus a change which is not that much of a hassle.

Either way - LHR or BHX are further - so more expensive by rail, so /if/ the flight is available to where you want to go also goes from MAN, you'll use MAN.

If you're already travelling to LHR as a connection from MAN for a transatlantic, say, then you might find those MAN or LBA => LHR services disappear. It's bonkers that they exist today.. LHR doesn't need a third runway, it needs a third railway!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Either way - LHR or BHX are further - so more expensive by rail, so /if/ the flight is available to where you want to go also goes from MAN, you'll use MAN.

If you're already travelling to LHR as a connection from MAN for a transatlantic, say, then you might find those MAN or LBA => LHR services disappear. It's bonkers that they exist today.. LHR doesn't need a third runway, it needs a third railway!

They largely exist because Euston to Heathrow is a faff, and because there's no integration of ticketing (so to ensure the connection you need to book a through ticket by air). OOC will solve the former, and if anyone has any sense they will solve the latter by offering train services to OOC as a codeshare to all the main airline alliances, so when you go to book a flight on the airline's website (or Expedia or whatever) it just comes up as a flight. That should be enough to kill off Manchester to London flights.

 

[Bald Rick]

It also has better facilities than say Luton which long haul carriers demand.

Not sure about that. I regularly use Luton, and occasionally BHX, and I’d say that Luton has better facilities now. It has the ‘must have’ for an airport to be declared (by me) to think itself decent, and that is a duty free that sells a bottle of whisky costing more than £1000.

There is, however, one thing most long haul carriers do need, and that is a runway long enough to take their aircraft. Luton doesn’t have one, and isn’t going to.

But, that is not an issue. Luton will do just fine.

The idea of Luton being threatened by easyJet moving away is I guess not really HS2-related - more that it's known it is interested in moving to LHR and has been for years, and COVID might give it an "in" if it leaves spare slots.

Easyjet might get in to LHR, but they sure as hell are not going to leave Luton!

 

[37424]

As well as not closing Airports I'm not even sure it will entirely eliminate such as Heathrow to Manchester, some Business travellers may still find the Plane more suitable for their requirements, personally I have only used Manchester to Heathrow as a connection to and from Europe and the US and I have to admit it was much more convienent than using the train and the fare to the US was cheaper than booking from Heathrow and then the cost of getting there by train or even coach.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Easyjet might go to LHR, but they sure as hell are not going to leave Luton!

They do have a lot invested in it in historical/"emotional" terms, but I really would not consider that a given.

As well as not closing Airports I'm not even sure it will entirely eliminate such as Heathrow to Manchester, some Business travellers may still find the Plane more suitable for their requirements, personally I have only used Manchester to Heathrow as a connection to and from Europe and the US and I have to admit it was much more convienent than using the train especially as the fare to the US was cheaper than booking from Heathrow and getting there by train.

You can, as I said, resolve those aspects once HS2 opens.

 

[Bald Rick]

They do have a lot invested in it in historical/"emotional" terms, but I really would not consider that a given.

No chance.

Leaving aside the number of head office people they’d have to move, Luton serves a substantial area of population where it is much easier (and frankly, nicer) to get to and use Luton than Heathrow (or Stansted, or Gatwick, etc). Luton also generates a critical mass of services and frequency that EZY just couldnt be delivered at Heathrow, and that makes it very efficient.

Also, Landing / terminal fees are *much* cheaper

 

[HST43257]

I mainly thing we should just put an end to these small airports which have flights to London and Amsterdam, and nothing else. Just not worth it. All it’s doing is providing worthless jobs.

 

[Meglos]

IMHO. Birmingham is more likely to be at risk than any of the London Airports or Manchester/Liverpool. With HS2 completion travelling from the West Midlands into Heathrow (via OOC) is actually likely to increase. Birmingham as a non-hub already can't attract enough long-haul routes, and a lot of it's pre-COVID long-haul passenger traffic was already travelling via changes at Amsterdam or Paris. HS2 will just make it easier for people in the Birmingham area to access Heathrow (and Manchester Airport) quicker that now.

The land released if Birmingham Airport closed would go a long way to solving the housing land shortage in Birmingham.

 

[BrianW]

It's a great question to wrestle with- so many imponderables, known and unknown unknowns, and so far ahead to project.
It's so exciting to consider moving these chess pieces around on the board without any notion of 'rules'. I cannot see a great planner in Whitehall or Leeds or anywhere deciding, other than in termas of approving ot not this or that plan from a 'provider' responding to 'market economics'.
Hopefully HS2 WILL change the patterns of movement.
I imagine that people's travel choices at present are influenced if not determined by a complex of arrival and departure times, frequencies (esp for return), ease of access, congestion, parking, fares, fees, anxieties.
Into the future the same plus fewer business journeys related to meetings, conferences, more, or less. to China or Dubai and less to Amsterdam and Paris, or more ... More holidays, or fewer ...
Airports around the world will be adjusting too, including to their political perspectives.
To put my 'hat in the ring' I would expect Heathrow to continue to see itself as the Hub for Europe to/from global capitals/ Hubs, with most England 'connections' by HS2 and maybe 'peak time' planes to/from Glasgow/ Edinburgh and maybe Aberdeen Dyce.
UK 'provincial' airports to service Global 'provincials' where a direct flight can be filled- eg Manchester- Dallas/ Forth Worth, Birmingham- Singapore?? (maybe crazy 'examples' just pulled out of the sky!!
Hell for airport and airline planners ...

 

[ABB125]

Indeed, I think their aspiration is to build it on the other side of the A452 on the Packington Estate.

I initially thought that was a typo for A45... Packington is miles away! (Well, maybe 3 or so!)

 

[Bald Rick]

I initially thought that was a typo for A45... Packington is miles away! (Well, maybe 3 or so!)

Type “Birmingham airport second runway map” into google, and you’ll see where it was proposed.

 

[ABB125]

Type “Birmingham airport second runway map” into google, and you’ll see where it was proposed.

Well, it would be more convenient for access via HS2! M42 j6 would probably implode into singularity though....

 

[Aictos]

Not sure about that. I regularly use Luton, and occasionally BHX, and I’d say that Luton has better facilities now. It has the ‘must have’ for an airport to be declared (by me) to think itself decent, and that is a duty free that sells a bottle of whisky costing more than £1000.

There is, however, one thing most long haul carriers do need, and that is a runway long enough to take their aircraft. Luton doesn’t have one, and isn’t going to.

But, that is not an issue. Luton will do just fine.




Easyjet might get in to LHR, but they sure as hell are not going to leave Luton!

I used Luton three times in the last 2 years with Easyjet and Wizz Air and found it a pleasant airport to use, I certainly don't want it to close down due to lack of airlines.

 

[Bald Rick]

To put my 'hat in the ring' I would expect Heathrow to continue to see itself as the Hub for Europe to/from global capitals/ Hubs, with most England 'connections' by HS2 and maybe 'peak time' planes to/from Glasgow/ Edinburgh and maybe Aberdeen Dyce.
UK 'provincial' airports to service Global 'provincials' where a direct flight can be filled- eg Manchester- Dallas/ Forth Worth, Birmingham- Singapore?? (maybe crazy 'examples' just pulled out of the sky!!

Heathrow will continue to be the main european hub for North America. It is hoping to be the main hub for China and the emerging Asian economies, but is up against stiff competition from CDG, Schiphol, and to a lesser extent Frankfurt. Istanbul is making a play there too, as a closer version of Dubai.

U.K. connections to Heathrow will stay - Belfast (obviously!), Glasgow & Edinburgh at relatively high frequency (although this frequency may well reduce a little); Aberdeen and Inverness lower (unlikely to change). Manchester and Newcastle will be interesting post HS2. Both have 2-3 morning flights designed to connect with the outbound wave of services to North America, and take back Early morning arrivals on the return. I can’t see those being removed entirely, but possibly reduced to just a couple. There’s also, typically a late service to connect with overnight flights eastbound, again that’s unlikely to change.

Hell for airport and airline planners ...

Not really. Covid is much, much more of a problem than HS2 will be. HS2 impact on domestic aviation will be very limited.

 

[class26]

IMHO. Birmingham is more likely to be at risk than any of the London Airports or Manchester/Liverpool. With HS2 completion travelling from the West Midlands into Heathrow (via OOC) is actually likely to increase. Birmingham as a non-hub already can't attract enough long-haul routes, and a lot of it's pre-COVID long-haul passenger traffic was already travelling via changes at Amsterdam or Paris. HS2 will just make it easier for people in the Birmingham area to access Heathrow (and Manchester Airport) quicker that now.

The land released if Birmingham Airport closed would go a long way to solving the housing land shortage in Birmingham.

are you seriously suggesting the airport for the UK`s second largest city would close ?
There are more long haul services than many imagine. Before covid there was -
3 x daily Emirates to Dubai including the A380
1 x daily Qatar to Doha
1 x daily Air India to Delhi
Pakistan airways frequency fluctuating
2 x daily to Turkish Istanbul

plus many of the European carriers that do not serve such airports as Stansted or Luton

 

[Bald Rick]

IMHO. Birmingham is more likely to be at risk than any of the London Airports or Manchester/Liverpool. With HS2 completion travelling from the West Midlands into Heathrow (via OOC) is actually likely to increase. Birmingham as a non-hub already can't attract enough long-haul routes, and a lot of it's pre-COVID long-haul passenger traffic was already travelling via changes at Amsterdam or Paris. HS2 will just make it easier for people in the Birmingham area to access Heathrow (and Manchester Airport) quicker that now.

The land released if Birmingham Airport closed would go a long way to solving the housing land shortage in Birmingham.

No chance. Birmingham Airport will be a big winner from HS2.

 

[camflyer]

I mainly thing we should just put an end to these small airports which have flights to London and Amsterdam, and nothing else. Just not worth it. All it’s doing is providing worthless jobs.

Presumably the people working there don't think their jobs are worthless. Airports are always hubs of economic activity attracting businesses with easy connections to the rest of the world. It would be a brave MP who supported the closure of their local airport.