COVID-19 and the weather - could the UK see an increase in cases towards or during winter?

[infobleep]

I looked up COVID-19 and weather on here but didn't see a thread so decided to start one.

Are we due a continued reduction in COVID-19 cases until it starts to get colder again? Could we actually see a second wider peak towards or during winter? I think that may be possible, assuming the virus survives that long.

Hot Weather May Make It Harder for the Coronavirus to Survive on Surfaces

The virus is most often spread via respiratory droplets but can also be spread via contaminated surfaces.

While it seems clear that hot weather won’t stop the virus from spreading, new data finds it may help keep the virus from surviving for long periods of time on surfaces.

An important factor in virus transmission is how long it takes a droplet to evaporate, because it can't spread a dry environment.

Hot Weather May Make It Harder for Coronavirus to Survive on Surfaces

Not only does COVID-19 spread by contact with contaminated surfaces, but new research finds that weather can influence how long the virus survives. Scientists found that higher humidity could allow the virus to remain infectious longer.

www.healthline.com

Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health

The current study focuses on the relationship between environmental parameters and the growth rate of COVID-19. The statistical analysis suggests that the temperature changes retarded the growth rate and found that -6.28°C and +14.51°C temperature is the favorable range for COVID-19 growth. Gutenberg- Richter's relationship is used to estimate the mean daily rate of exceedance of confirmed cases concerning the change in temperature. Temperature is the most influential parameter that reduces the growth at the rate of 13-16 cases/day with a 1°C rise in temperature

Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health

The undefendable outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) lead to a global health emergency due to its higher transmission rate and longer symptomatic duration, created a health surge in a short time. Since Nov 2019 the outbreak in China, the virus is spreading exponentially everywhere. The...

www.medrxiv.org

The above is research paper is quoted in the following news report:

Temperature changes have an effect on the COVID-19 infection rate, influencing it at the rate of 13-16 cases a day per 1°C rise in temperature, the study said.

The researchers postulate that all the countries which suffered substantial infection rates, in particular the USA, Italy, Spain, and China, exhibited a temperature gradient which was less than 15oC. On the other hand, countries that reported lower infection and death tolls like India, Africa, and Australia, had temperatures higher than 15oC.

Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia seemed to be exceptions. The study hypothesized that this could be because of their difference in elevation, or seasonal location changes.

The effect of weather on COVID-19 infection rate

Viral epidemics are nothing new in human history. Several viruses circulate freely every year among human beings, causing seasonal outbreaks of disease and death, such as the seasonal flu. A new study published on the preprint server medRxiv* reports that temperature plays a significant role in...

www.news-medical.net

 

[Horizon22]

While weather is probably a minor factor, it is probably a considerably smaller factor than having a competent and adhered to lockdown for example. In that regard its hard to make strong conclusions. There's lots of "hypothesis" and "may" in the quotes. That being said the association of other corona-viruses suggests that lower temperatures will make things potentially worse.

 

[johnnychips]

It is speculated that longer nights and shorter days lead to less uptake of vitamin D, which may play a role in the immune system. Sorry I can’t find a link.

 

[Bantamzen]

I pretty sure early on in the pandemic I read somewhere that the virus's outer layer starts to break down when the surface it is on starts to exceed 24C, although as above I cannot find a link. However some viruses do struggle more with transmission at certain times of the year, partly because of weather conditions, but as also noted above because of localised effects within humans such as better uptake / production of key chemical components that can improve the efficiency of our immune systems.

So it is possible that the much mooted "second wave" could occur later in the year when conditions get worse in this country at least, and it is probably more likely than not that the virus will survive until then, and even much longer. However when thinking about a possible second wave in the winter, its also worth thinking about the kind of measures that have been taken thus far & how viable they will be in colder weather. Its not just about people queuing outside stores, but walking / cycling becomes far less desirable, and despite what some people would have us believe, standing / walking / cycling in cold & wet weather can & does have a detrimental effect on both our physical and mental wellbeing. What might have worked during an unusually mild & dry Spring won't necessarily work when the wind is blowing and the rain coming in sideways.

 

[DelayRepay]

its also worth thinking about the kind of measures that have been taken thus far & how viable they will be in colder weather. Its not just about people queuing outside stores, but walking / cycling becomes far less desirable, and despite what some people would have us believe, standing / walking / cycling in cold & wet weather can & does have a detrimental effect on both our physical and mental wellbeing. What might have worked during an unusually mild & dry Spring won't necessarily work when the wind is blowing and the rain coming in sideways.

I would agree with this point. Also socialising outdoors becomes less attractive and I doubt people will stop socialising so a lot of the things currently taking place in parks and gardens will move indoors. And indoor spaces will be less well ventilated as people tend not to have their windows open when it's cold. I think the risk comes from November onwards, when we are likely to have bad weather combined with people wanting to socialise for Christmas. Whilst we might not have traditional Christmas parties this year, I doubt people would comply with a rule that prevented all Christmas related gatherings.

I shudder to think what the supermarkets will be like in the run up to Christmas if the current queues and social distancing measures are still in operation then.

 

[Bantamzen]

I would agree with this point. Also socialising outdoors becomes less attractive and I doubt people will stop socialising so a lot of the things currently taking place in parks and gardens will move indoors. And indoor spaces will be less well ventilated as people tend not to have their windows open when it's cold. I think the risk comes from November onwards, when we are likely to have bad weather combined with people wanting to socialise for Christmas. Whilst we might not have traditional Christmas parties this year, I doubt people would comply with a rule that prevented all Christmas related gatherings.

I shudder to think what the supermarkets will be like in the run up to Christmas if the current queues and social distancing measures are still in operation then.

I can offer an insight into what supermarkets would be like, as a couple of years ago my wife and I found ourselves queuing outside our local Morrisons on a Christmas Eve when the store would be closed for the following two days. On arrival we were greeted with the sight of dozens of people queuing for trollies, as none where available and there seemed to be only a trickle of people coming out. So in the freezing sleet blasting down on us from the nearby moors, we joined the happy crew of queuers. Tempers were already frayed, the queue stretched around the side of the supermarket towards the cash machines as people sought what shelter from the freezing wind, and this started to cause arguments. And as we got tantalisingly closer to the entrances, the mood further deteriorated as some of our fellow shoppers were insisting on multiple trollies, or trying to queue jump. And once inside we discovered the reason for the pathetic trickle of shoppers leaving, massive queues along all the isles as people bought in droves. The mood inside was prickly and we encountered many clashes as people become increasingly impatient. Even I, normally a calm patient soul ( ) started to get a bit angry, and had to fight off the desire to go into isle-rage and ram a number of my fellow shoppers...

It was not a great experience, and one that I would not wish to repeat. Supermarkets have had it easy thus dar, but winter could / will be a whole different ball game. Sure some like Asda might be eyeing up reserving slots and sitting in cars, but these systems will easily start to fall apart when the weather turns and (some) people will not want to be standing around watching other people suddenly leaping out of their cars and into the store in front of them. Mark my words, because I will be one of them....

 

[underbank]

I can offer an insight into what supermarkets would be like, as a couple of years ago my wife and I found ourselves queuing outside our local Morrisons on a Christmas Eve

Surely the answer is not to go shopping at the last minute in the first place. Christmas Eve is always a busy time. We go about a week before for non perishables and then 2 or 3 days before for fresh produce (fruit, veg, meat etc). We've not been shopping anywhere on Christmas Eve for about 20 years. We usually do something "fun" instead - like when our son was young, we'd go on a Santa train - far more pleasurable than shopping with last minuters.

Covid has made people think about when and where to shop. Nearly everyone I know has found a store/time that works for them where the stores are less busy. My wife used to go to Morrisons every Friday - she's not been for weeks as the queues are long virtually every day, staff pretty unpleasant and the store itself felt "unclean" - grimy surfaces, fridge handles etc - now she goes to Tesco on a Tuesday. If people continue to spread their shopping over all the hours the stores are open, there's really no need for stupidly long queues, etc, even at Christmas. It's stopped the "I want it now" mentality of people just doing what they want, when they want to. That can only be a good thing if it encourages people to think ahead and plan for things.

 

[Bantamzen]

Surely the answer is not to go shopping at the last minute in the first place. Christmas Eve is always a busy time. We go about a week before for non perishables and then 2 or 3 days before for fresh produce (fruit, veg, meat etc). We've not been shopping anywhere on Christmas Eve for about 20 years. We usually do something "fun" instead - like when our son was young, we'd go on a Santa train - far more pleasurable than shopping with last minuters.

We were away in the week before visiting family.

​

Covid has made people think about when and where to shop. Nearly everyone I know has found a store/time that works for them where the stores are less busy. My wife used to go to Morrisons every Friday - she's not been for weeks as the queues are long virtually every day, staff pretty unpleasant and the store itself felt "unclean" - grimy surfaces, fridge handles etc - now she goes to Tesco on a Tuesday. If people continue to spread their shopping over all the hours the stores are open, there's really no need for stupidly long queues, etc, even at Christmas. It's stopped the "I want it now" mentality of people just doing what they want, when they want to. That can only be a good thing if it encourages people to think ahead and plan for things.

Its far easily to spread shopping out when you are a) Working from home or b) Furloughed from work. Once the furloughed staff get back to work as well as some WFH staff travelling in more this becomes more difficult. But I suspect you know this.

 

[philosopher]

In Australia and New Zealand, where the outbreak started at the start of their Autumn, they both had quite small outbreaks. New Zealand now has eliminated Covid-19. Australia is now in Winter but now has very few cases a day which can likely be dealt with through contact tracing.

Argentina and Chile’s outbreaks were quite small in March but have been growing very quickly over the last month as they headed in winter.

In the seasonal Northern Hemisphere countries, despite easing of restrictions, there has not really been any second wave. A few places such as North Macedonia have had recent increases in infections, but this is generally the exception.

This to me suggests Covid-19 does spread more easily in colder weather.

 

[Mag_seven]

I suspect the reason why all viruses spread more in the winter is because we are indoors more.

 

[MattA7]

Both weather conditions are bad in different ways warm weather causes people to want to go outside and into public places such as beaches and parks possibly spreading the virus
however cold weather weakens the immune system and may encourage people to meet up indoors etc which has a higher risk of transmission So either way it’s all bad

 

[infobleep]

I suggested this to a friend and they said we'll Brazil is hot and they are having it bad. However, that might be due to their policies.