COVID 19 - Brexit Implications

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The Ham

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Quite a lot of people are saying the 31st December deadline should be pushed on 12 months (i.e. to 31st December 2021) to allow time for negotiations to be concluded properly, and I do agree with this, and think it would be very ill-advised to rush things in the circumstances.
Indeed, however that's very different to calling for Brexit to be cancelled.
 

Starmill

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Quite a lot of people are saying the 31st December deadline should be pushed on 12 months (i.e. to 31st December 2021) to allow time for negotiations to be concluded properly, and I do agree with this, and think it would be very ill-advised to rush things in the circumstances.
I don't see what that has to do with "anti democratic forces" trying to make sure that the "final Brexit deal should not happen"?

On the seperate subject of an extension to the transition period, the polling indicates that an overwhelming majority of the British public, and a majority of Conservative voters, want an extension. The options for extension are none, one year and two years. No extensions to the extension are permitted. In my opinion the disruption is so great that only the two year extension is appropriate, and that the government should have already submitted the request for this around a month ago. If they had shown some leadership it would have been accepted and agreed with the 27 by now. But we are drifting rather for Sir William Cash's latest self-important declarations.
 

Domh245

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In my opinion the disruption is so great that only the two year extension is appropriate, and that the government should have already submitted the request for this around a month ago. If they had shown some leadership it would have been accepted and agreed with the 27 by now.
I partially agree - Boris had always planned for only a year's negotiation (unless that was just bravado that he was willing to throw aside later down the line) so if any extension is agreed, I can't see it being any more than the length of time lost to this pandemic. We also can't forget that a fair chunk of the negotiations should still be going on behind the scenes with video conferencing and working from home between the people writing up the nuances of the deal - it's only the big face to face meetings between Barnier and whoever our representative is that are really impacted. I certainly think that whilst the EU may have said "only a 1 or 2 year extension" is allowed, under the circumstances, a brief extension to allow for any lost time caused by this pandemic to finish the formalities will be allowed - nobody could have predicted this to occur.
 

Ianno87

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Given what 2020 will turn out as, I bet most of the electorate honestly won't care less whether Brexit happens or not by the end of the year. Or even at all.

Will put 4 years of national childish squabbling in some real, much needed perspective.
 

Neen Sollars

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Given what 2020 will turn out as, I bet most of the electorate honestly won't care less whether Brexit happens or not by the end of the year. Or even at all.

Will put 4 years of national childish squabbling in some real, much needed perspective.
I rest my case.
 

Ianno87

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I rest my case.
If Brexit didn't happen (or was delayed), would most people be bothered? Probably not now, irrespective of what a 4 year old referendum said. It's no longer the priority it once was to the majority of people.

(I'm not saying it should be stopped...I'm saying if it was quietly stopped, few people would actually care)
 

Bletchleyite

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I dunno. I suspect the Southern European economies in particular are going to end up in a much worse state than ours, and I can't see Mr Farridge's minions wanting to pay for that; they're going to moan enough about the tax increases that will be required here.
 

Ianno87

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I dunno. I suspect the Southern European economies in particular are going to end up in a much worse state than ours, and I can't see Mr Farridge's minions wanting to pay for that; they're going to moan enough about the tax increases that will be required here.
On the one hand, yes all it needs is Mr Farage and co. to kick up noises in the right places.

On the other, people will have other priorites to focus on like finding work again, getting financial stability, seeing friends/relatives for the first time in months, getting out an enjoying life again. And perhaps a renewed appreciation for the workers of the NHS.
 

AM9

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On the one hand, yes all it needs is Mr Farage and co. to kick up noises in the right places.

On the other, people will have other priorites to focus on like finding work again, getting financial stability, seeing friends/relatives for the first time in months, getting out an enjoying life again. And perhaps a renewed appreciation for the workers of the NHS.
I doubt that Farage would dare destroy what little credibility he has with most of the population by bringing up the subject when everybody else has rather more important things to deal with. So far, this pointless anti-EU for the sake of it attitude has lost the UK a chance to jointly procure PPE, ventilators and virus test materials. Part of our inadequate and late response to the arrival of cases here is directly attributable to this stance.
 

CaptainHaddock

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Given the petty squabbling between the main EU countries over a co-ordinated response to the covid-19 pandemic, I reckon the EU is pretty much finished anyway. We"re better off out of it.
 

paddington

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I think that people will start caring about Brexit very quickly once the virus is out of the news every day.

The end of 2020 deadline is supposed to be BJ's way of putting pressure on the EU. I would guess that if closer to the time, BJ claims we need 1 or 2 months to finalise the deal then it will be extended, but not if there is no progress at all.
 

YorkshireBear

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Given the petty squabbling between the main EU countries over a co-ordinated response to the covid-19 pandemic, I reckon the EU is pretty much finished anyway. We"re better off out of it.
With all the petty squabbling that goes on in Westminster, the dft, network rail, heritage railways. We are better off out of them, just close the railway network down. The entire world squabbles at every level of society.
 

SuperNova

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I rest my case.
I'm not sure what case your resting. The only people thinking about Brexit now are ardent Brexiteers and some Remainers - most are worried about the immediate future of their livelihoods RE Covid-19.

Given that we've got until the end of the year to achieve a suitable trade deal with the EU, postponing the deadline while the world comes to terms with Covid-19 is entirely sensible.

And, with France entering recession due to Covid-19 and the UK not far behind, the threat of a cliff edge Brexit will be a worry for many businesses up and down the country. Pragmatic to delay trade deal talks and continue with the transition period for as long as feasibly possible.
 

Starmill

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I partially agree - Boris had always planned for only a year's negotiation (unless that was just bravado that he was willing to throw aside later down the line) so if any extension is agreed, I can't see it being any more than the length of time lost to this pandemic. We also can't forget that a fair chunk of the negotiations should still be going on behind the scenes with video conferencing and working from home between the people writing up the nuances of the deal - it's only the big face to face meetings between Barnier and whoever our representative is that are really impacted. I certainly think that whilst the EU may have said "only a 1 or 2 year extension" is allowed, under the circumstances, a brief extension to allow for any lost time caused by this pandemic to finish the formalities will be allowed - nobody could have predicted this to occur.
This might require Treaty Change, but yes in principle it might be possible to fudge.
 

Tetchytyke

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Given the petty squabbling between the main EU countries over a co-ordinated response to the covid-19 pandemic
What petty squabbling?

The only petty squabbling I've seen was the EU inviting us to be involved in joint planning and procurement, and Boris telling them to sod off.

I think the main implication of Covid-19 on Brexit is that Boris now has an oven-ready excuse for when it all goes to pot.
 

Tom B

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What petty squabbling?

The only petty squabbling I've seen was the EU inviting us to be involved in joint planning and procurement, and Boris telling them to sod off.

I think the main implication of Covid-19 on Brexit is that Boris now has an oven-ready excuse for when it all goes to pot.
Pre-cisely. Boris (& Cummings) must be rubbing his hands at the opportunity to deflect blame.
 

edwin_m

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I think that people will start caring about Brexit very quickly once the virus is out of the news every day.

The end of 2020 deadline is supposed to be BJ's way of putting pressure on the EU. I would guess that if closer to the time, BJ claims we need 1 or 2 months to finalise the deal then it will be extended, but not if there is no progress at all.
Any extension has to be agreed by June I think, and would require repeal of a law that Boris got Parliament to agree that makes extension illegal. So if we are to avoid a further (and totally avoidable) disruption to our national recovery then something needs doing soon.
 

CaptainHaddock

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What petty squabbling?

The only petty squabbling I've seen was the EU inviting us to be involved in joint planning and procurement, and Boris telling them to sod off.
This petty squabbling!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52224838

Italy's prime minister has told the BBC that the European Union risks failing as a project in the coronavirus crisis.

Giuseppe Conte says the EU must act in an adequate and co-ordinated way to help countries worst hit by the virus.

He was speaking as Italy and some other EU countries try to push more frugal members of the bloc to issue so-called "corona bonds" - sharing debt that all EU nations would help to pay off. The Netherlands in particular has opposed the idea, leading to a clash between finance ministers of the eurozone.

The Italian prime minister told the BBC that Europe's leaders were "facing an appointment with history" that they could not miss.

"If we do not seize the opportunity to put new life into the European project, the risk of failure is real.
"
 

Tetchytyke

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I do actually think that (demands for Germany to bankroll southern Europe again) could cause a complete collapse.
I'm not so sure it will.

"Bankroll us or we will leave" is one of the weaker threats available to a country, when you think about it. It's not like Greece, Hungary, Italy or Spain have the financial clout to play hardball. "Give us more money or we'll leave the organisation that gives us money, and get nothing".

If the EU does collapse, it won't be because of those countries which take more from the EU than they give back.
 

Chester1

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I don't see what that has to do with "anti democratic forces" trying to make sure that the "final Brexit deal should not happen"?

On the seperate subject of an extension to the transition period, the polling indicates that an overwhelming majority of the British public, and a majority of Conservative voters, want an extension. The options for extension are none, one year and two years. No extensions to the extension are permitted. In my opinion the disruption is so great that only the two year extension is appropriate, and that the government should have already submitted the request for this around a month ago. If they had shown some leadership it would have been accepted and agreed with the 27 by now. But we are drifting rather for Sir William Cash's latest self-important declarations.
This is a bit simplistic. They are the options for the transition as defined by the withdrawal agreement. There is no legal block on the EU and UK agreeing an alternative temporary arrangement and this would have advantages for both sides. I think something like rolling over the single market membership and customs union but leaving common fishery and common agricultural policy etc i.e. Norway + customs union. I am far from convinced that the EU want the current transition to be extended. They are having enough trouble agreeing the EUs next 7 year budget (from 1st January 2021), without complicating it more than necessary. Norway pays a similar net contribution (relative to population) as the UK, but it puts less in and recieves less than EU members.

I am not convinced that brexiteer support for extending the transition would be maintained in light of a third option that keeps the vast majority of the economic continuity but still moves us closer to a long term deal. Support for changing nothing whatsoever is strongest amongst remainers. There was a funny slip by a journalist yesterday who told the Chancellor that many supported delaying the UK leaving the EU at the end of the year. Everyone knew what he actually meant but the slip was telling.

Edit:

I partially agree - Boris had always planned for only a year's negotiation (unless that was just bravado that he was willing to throw aside later down the line) so if any extension is agreed, I can't see it being any more than the length of time lost to this pandemic. We also can't forget that a fair chunk of the negotiations should still be going on behind the scenes with video conferencing and working from home between the people writing up the nuances of the deal - it's only the big face to face meetings between Barnier and whoever our representative is that are really impacted. I certainly think that whilst the EU may have said "only a 1 or 2 year extension" is allowed, under the circumstances, a brief extension to allow for any lost time caused by this pandemic to finish the formalities will be allowed - nobody could have predicted this to occur.
This option would get very messy because it would require reopening the withdrawal agreement and ratifying it again. There is very little justification for us to stay involved in several aspects of the EU for another 2 years. The problems caused by the pandemic do advance a case for not having a big change next year but 'an off the shelf" single market and / or customs union deal for 1-2 years wouldn't need long to negotiate or ratify.
 
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Chester1

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And you accused me of being too simplistic.

This is a ridiculous thing to say.
I meant because of Covid-19. It doesn't provide justification to retain every aspect of the transition i.e. non voting EU membership for 2 years. If you read the rest of my post I am very sympathetic to staying in the single market and or customs union longer because of the disruption caused. No change whatsoever for 1 to 2 years more does seem to motivated by not liking brexit full stop. I voted remain, but we have left and stuff will change over next 2 and a half years. Covid-19 does not provide meaningful justification to stay in the common fisheries policies for 2 years for instance.
 

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