COVID 19 Good News Stories

adc82140

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It seems that the Leicester outbreak was down to working conditions in a couple of sweatshop type clothing factories, combined with high density multi generational living conditions.
 
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317 forever

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If the combined total of tomorrow and Monday does not exceed 77 (which I shouldn't imagine it will) then the Tuesday-Monday rolling average will be a double-digit figure too. That's just as positive as the Saturday figure of 67 from today.
Yesterday the average from the last 7 days finally dipped below 100. Today it is 96.
 

Jamesrob637

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Yesterday the average from the last 7 days finally dipped below 100. Today it is 96.
Encouraging stuff. It's 107 if we go from Tuesday to today but only divide by 6. Tomorrow should still be in the twenties if not even lower still. I used a realistic figure of 20 for tomorrow which brings things down just a notch to 95. Also the weekly death toll overall is no higher than normal for the time of year.
 

Jamesrob637

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Even better news is today's death toll of only 16 and the seven-day rolling average has dropped to 94. That is a tenth of what we were seeing around Easter.

Obviously tomorrow won't realistically be 16 or 22 much as those stats look much better, however Tuesdays are on the steady decline too.
 

MikeWM

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Infections are way down too - the rolling daily average is well below 1000 now. Infections are a complex measure - going up isn't *necessarily* a problem, as you may just be picking up less serious or asymptomatic cases, which explains a good amount of what is happening in the USA (and possibly Leicester). But going down is always good news.

I'd think the best measure to look at now is hospitalisations and/or ICU use. Happily, they're continuing the downwards trend too.
 

adc82140

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Where are you getting your hospitalisation figures? My usual source on the gov.uk website hasn't been updated since Friday.
 

MikeWM

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Where are you getting your hospitalisation figures? My usual source on the gov.uk website hasn't been updated since Friday.
Mostly graphs on twitter - that I can never find again when I want them :-/ Sorry that's not more helpful.


Edit : I think you're right, I can't find anything later than Friday's data. Hopefully there wasn't a massive uptick over the weekend, though I don't see any reason to believe there would have been ;)
 
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adc82140

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It's frustrating. Almost as if they don't want us to see the low level of hospitalisations. At the end of last week there were just 50 in hospital in the south west. That covers Truro to Salisbury, with Plymouth, Exeter and Bristol in the middle.
 

Class 33

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It's frustrating. Almost as if they don't want us to see the low level of hospitalisations. At the end of last week there were just 50 in hospital in the south west. That covers Truro to Salisbury, with Plymouth, Exeter and Bristol in the middle.
Also there have been no Coronavirus deaths in the South West for the past 7 days.
 

Bletchleyite

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I'd think the best measure to look at now is hospitalisations and/or ICU use. Happily, they're continuing the downwards trend too.
They're probably the important one, as it wouldn't overly matter if 1/3 of the population got it if they were all mild cases of which none or almost none ended up in hospital. They're one to watch to see if the virus is getting less dangerous.
 

Class 33

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Even better news is today's death toll of only 16 and the seven-day rolling average has dropped to 94. That is a tenth of what we were seeing around Easter.

Obviously tomorrow won't realistically be 16 or 22 much as those stats look much better, however Tuesdays are on the steady decline too.
155 total deaths today. Which isn't good. Coincidentally exactly the same number as last Tuesday. Tuesday's figures are never good, as they are such a big jump up from the previous day, due to the reporting lag of the weekend's figures. On a 7 day rolling average though, we are still going down, albeit fairly slowly now. But as you say, things are a hell of a lot better now up to those horrendous days back in April when daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's.
 

MikeWM

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Number of 'infections' still well below 1000. Though I'm not sure how anyone - including myself - can put much faith in the accuracy of 'positive tests' reports when they come with disclaimers like this:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
The total number of tests has been revised since yesterday’s total after the following changes to the historical data:
  • 15,935 tests removed from the pillar 2 cumulative total
  • 204 tests added to the pillar 3 cumulative total
  • 4,855 tests added to the pillar 4 cumulative total
The daily tests reported today have been added to this revised total rather than the total reported yesterday, so the cumulative total today is 10,876 lower than if you added the daily tests to yesterday’s total.

For pillar 2, the cumulative number of processed tests is 16,405 lower, and the number of tests sent out is 470 higher.

Due to data not being made available, it is likely that pillar 2 numbers for the 6 July are over-reported. The figures will be revised, once the necessary data has been made available this week. This affects the ‘tests made available’ and the ‘tests processed’ totals.
I think I'm losing the will to live :(
 

Jamesrob637

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155 total deaths today. Which isn't good. Coincidentally exactly the same number as last Tuesday. Tuesday's figures are never good, as they are such a big jump up from the previous day, due to the reporting lag of the weekend's figures. On a 7 day rolling average though, we are still going down, albeit fairly slowly now. But as you say, things are a hell of a lot better now up to those horrendous days back in April when daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's.
Tuesday is just a crap day period (comment all you like on my thread on Tuesdays under 'General Discussion'), though a good news story from my part is that I managed to get a barber's appointment at midday today and subsequently do not resemble Wurzel Gummidge anymore
 

Yew

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Slightly O/T, but back in late April, I remember stories saying that we should have preliminary indications that the oxford vaccine does/doesn't work in about 6 weeks. Given that that was 9 or 10 weeks ago, has anyone seen any articles actually discussing this?
 

MikeWM

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Mostly graphs on twitter - that I can never find again when I want them :-/ Sorry that's not more helpful.


Edit : I think you're right, I can't find anything later than Friday's data. Hopefully there wasn't a massive uptick over the weekend, though I don't see any reason to believe there would have been ;)
Ok, here's one up till yesterday.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1280582671941410816
1594215414391.png

Still going down nicely.

Note even this figure is potentially over-reporting, as it is 'people in hospital *with* coronavirus', not *due to*. It will include people who are in hospital for other reasons but tested for covid anyway, even if it isn't anything to do with why they are in hospital and may well be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. As eg. hospitals get back to doing elective surgery, more seem likely to be picked up.
 

adc82140

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The government figures website has returned. A significant drop in both ventilated patients and patients in hospital with Covid.
 

scotrail158713

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The government figures website has returned. A significant drop in both ventilated patients and patients in hospital with Covid.
That’s certainly a good thing. It’s also a more useful figure than infections as a high number of infections doesn’t matter too much as a large number won’t require hospital treatment anyway.
 

Chester1

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Slightly O/T, but back in late April, I remember stories saying that we should have preliminary indications that the oxford vaccine does/doesn't work in about 6 weeks. Given that that was 9 or 10 weeks ago, has anyone seen any articles actually discussing this?
It doesn't provide immunity. The early trials showed it is safe. They are trialing now in large numbers, particularly in Brazil (they need a decent proportion of participants to come into contact with virus). Its looking reasonably likely that it reduces fatality rate but they need to continue trials to know. They are supposed to be making a decision in the next month or so whether offer to roll it out in Autumn (they have already started production). Its the best prospect for a vaccine this year.
 

Yew

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It doesn't provide immunity. The early trials showed it is safe. They are trialing now in large numbers, particularly in Brazil (they need a decent proportion of participants to come into contact with virus). Its looking reasonably likely that it reduces fatality rate but they need to continue trials to know. They are supposed to be making a decision in the next month or so whether offer to roll it out in Autumn (they have already started production). Its the best prospect for a vaccine this year.
Excellent, I'd not seen any formal results from the first stage traials?
 

Jamesrob637

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155 total deaths today. Which isn't good. Coincidentally exactly the same number as last Tuesday. Tuesday's figures are never good, as they are such a big jump up from the previous day, due to the reporting lag of the weekend's figures. On a 7 day rolling average though, we are still going down, albeit fairly slowly now. But as you say, things are a hell of a lot better now up to those horrendous days back in April when daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's.
But 126 is at least the lowest Wednesday by a fair margin.
 

Yew

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It looks like we're down to 1 in 3,900, based on the latest ONS statistics (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53349888)
Two reports charting coronavirus cases in England show the number of people in the community with the disease is falling.

The Office for National Statistics estimates one in 3,900 people have Covid - 0.03% of the population, down from one in 2,200 the previous week.

And data from Public Health England shows confirmed cases fell by 25% in the week to 5 July.

In Leicester, they fell to 120 per 100,000 from 140 per 100,000 last week.

The latest data shows the top 10 local authorities in the UK, after Leicester, all saw fewer than 30 cases per 100k people.

Out of 150 authorities, about three-quarters had falling or static case numbers - with relatively small increases in the other quarter.

The ONS estimate is based on swab tests collected from 25,662 participants, of which eight people tested positive for Covid-19.

If you scaled that up, it would work out as about 14,000 infections in England.
 
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AdamWW

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Ok, here's one up till yesterday.

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1280582671941410816
View attachment 80519

Still going down nicely.

Note even this figure is potentially over-reporting, as it is 'people in hospital *with* coronavirus', not *due to*. It will include people who are in hospital for other reasons but tested for covid anyway, even if it isn't anything to do with why they are in hospital and may well be asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms. As eg. hospitals get back to doing elective surgery, more seem likely to be picked up.
I could also imagine that as time goes by the bar to being admitted to hospital with it has been lowered, so some fraction of the people being admitted now would have been left to do the best they could at home if they'd had the same symptoms earlier. So the 'true' drop may be better than it looks.
 

MikeWM

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I could also imagine that as time goes by the bar to being admitted to hospital with it has been lowered, so some fraction of the people being admitted now would have been left to do the best they could at home if they'd had the same symptoms earlier. So the 'true' drop may be better than it looks.
Yes; I hope that is the case.

I saw many worrying reports around April of people who were really ill who were being brushed off by the 111 'service' and even by ambulance paramedics and told to stay home. It seemed for some that the only way to get into hospital was to be at death's door. I think that may be part of the cause of our higher death rate, compared to say Germany, who seemed to start treating people before they got quite so ill.
 

Jamesrob637

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Although still very sad today's UK death figures are 48. This is the lowest weekday figure since March and is encouraging.
Very encouraging if still tragic for the affected. The rolling average is 103 over the four days since Tuesday. I can't foresee much if anything of an uptick for tomorrow and the weekend will be very low too. The seven-day rolling average from Tuesday to Monday could be down at around 70 at this rate, 20-30% down on the mid-90s we saw last week and itself 10-20% down on the low-100s we saw the previous week.
 

AdamWW

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Yes; I hope that is the case.

I saw many worrying reports around April of people who were really ill who were being brushed off by the 111 'service' and even by ambulance paramedics and told to stay home. It seemed for some that the only way to get into hospital was to be at death's door. I think that may be part of the cause of our higher death rate, compared to say Germany, who seemed to start treating people before they got quite so ill.
Likewise. It's hard to know how common that was from anecdotal reports like that though.

I do find it very surprising that they told people with symptoms not even to contact NHS Direct unless they got seriously ill.
I can see they wanted to keep phone lines free, but not to ask people to log the fact on a web site so they had some idea of who had symptoms? It seems completely bizarre not to want to have that information.

It's certainly not as simple as saying that the hospitals weren't ovewhelmed here or in Germany so the differences in death rate can't be anything to do with hospital capacity.
 

AdamWW

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Very encouraging if still tragic for the affected. The rolling average is 103 over the four days since Tuesday. I can't foresee much if anything of an uptick for tomorrow and the weekend will be very low too. The seven-day rolling average from Tuesday to Monday could be down at around 70 at this rate, 20-30% down on the mid-90s we saw last week and itself 10-20% down on the low-100s we saw the previous week.
All very encouraging.
 

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