COVID 19 Good News Stories

Jamesrob637

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That I think gives a distinct possibility we may see a zero figure on Sunday or Monday. I know that's a quirk of the figures, but it would still be a big psychological step.
If we see that (God I'd love to) will we see a double-digit figure next Tuesday also?!
 
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RailUK Forums

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Although still very sad today's UK death figures are 48. This is the lowest weekday figure since March and is encouraging.
Yes, pretty much what I was going to post. I was pleasantly surprised to find that we've at long last reached a sub 50 deaths on a weekday.

The rolling average for this week is looking very likely that it's going to be quite a fair drop compared to last week.
 

Yew

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Yes, pretty much what I was going to post. I was pleasantly surprised to find that we've at long last reached a sub 50 deaths on a weekday.

The rolling average for this week is looking very likely that it's going to be quite a fair drop compared to last week.
It does seem like a noticeable drop form the increasingly plateau looking curve we were seeing. I wonder if it's related to the new treatments starting to pay off.
 

adc82140

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Or to put it bluntly, everyone who was going to die has. An anaesthetist friend of mind told me that they have been giving Dexamethasone to critically ill patients for years. Matt Hancock was effectively telling us that bears sh*t in the woods
 

AdamWW

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Or to put it bluntly, everyone who was going to die has. An anaesthetist friend of mind told me that they have been giving Dexamethasone to critically ill patients for years. Matt Hancock was effectively telling us that bears sh*t in the woods
To put it bluntly, I think there is very little evidence that this is the case.

Let's wait a few more weeks and see.

The numbers are looking good, but we are now (thankfully) looking at small numbers which means there is a lot of variation. Deaths are also lag infections so it will take a while to know if the fairly rapid opening up (in England) is having an effect or not.

With luck cases will keep dropping, it will turn out that the government has been much too cautious and we can rapidly get back to normal.

But I think it's a bit early to assume that's where we're heading.
 

Peter Mugridge

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Very encouraging if still tragic for the affected. The rolling average is 103 over the four days since Tuesday. I can't foresee much if anything of an uptick for tomorrow and the weekend will be very low too. The seven-day rolling average from Tuesday to Monday could be down at around 70 at this rate, 20-30% down on the mid-90s we saw last week and itself 10-20% down on the low-100s we saw the previous week.
On the official Government website it gives the 7 day rolling average as 74.1 for the most recent calculation, being that made based on Tuesday's figures.
 

yorkie

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Likewise. It's hard to know how common that was from anecdotal reports like that though.

I do find it very surprising that they told people with symptoms not even to contact NHS Direct unless they got seriously ill.
I can see they wanted to keep phone lines free, but not to ask people to log the fact on a web site so they had some idea of who had symptoms? It seems completely bizarre not to want to have that information.

It's certainly not as simple as saying that the hospitals weren't ovewhelmed here or in Germany so the differences in death rate can't be anything to do with hospital capacity.
Just a gentle reminder this thread is to discuss Covid 19 Good News Stories.

(The main intention is to share genuine breakthroughs and other interesting developments, rather than be a discussion on the death rate)
 

Mag_seven

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Some further good progress to report on the Oxford University vaccine study:


Researchers at the University of Oxford believe they have made a breakthrough in the development of a coronavirus vaccine.

Human trials are reported to have shown promising results after the team discovered the jab could provide "double protection" against the virus.

Blood samples taken from volunteers in phase one trials have shown the vaccine stimulated the body to produce antibodies and T-cells, according to a report in The Daily Telegraph.

T-cells play a central part in the body's immune response.
 

adc82140

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Seems the R rate was over egged in May. Was nearer to 0.5 rather than 1 as previously thought. Source: Imperial College.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53414363

The rate of coronavirus infections in the community in England was significantly reduced before lockdown eased in May, according to a government-commissioned study.

Imperial College research showed there were, on average, 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people.

This means the R number was lower than thought at 0.57, the study suggests.

But the figure does not take into account infections in care homes and hospitals at the time.

Calculated using this information, the national overall reproduction number - or R - was estimated to be between 0.7 and 1 during May.

The study of 120,000 volunteers also suggested young adults aged 18 to 24 were more likely to test positive. The researchers said this could be due to young people having more social contacts over lockdown.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the findings showed the impact of lockdown.

He said: "As a country we have made great strides towards beating this virus but we mustn't take our foot off the pedal, and such studies will be vital as we continue to fight this virus."
According to government figures, there are now no patients on ventilators in the south west.
 
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Mag_seven

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Some more good news in terms of a treatment for COVID:


The preliminary results of a clinical trial suggest a new treatment for Covid-19 dramatically reduces the number of patients needing intensive care, according to the UK company that developed it.

The treatment from Southampton-based biotech Synairgen uses a protein called interferon beta which the body produces when it gets a viral infection.

The protein is inhaled directly into the lungs of patients with coronavirus, using a nebuliser, in the hope that it will stimulate an immune response.

The initial findings suggest the treatment cut the odds of a Covid-19 patient in hospital developing severe disease - such as requiring ventilation - by 79%.
 

yorkie

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This sounds very promising:
New 90-minute tests that can detect coronavirus and flu will be rolled out in care homes and laboratories from next week.

The "on-the-spot" swab and DNA tests will help distinguish between Covid-19 and other seasonal illnesses, the government said.

The health secretary said this would be "hugely beneficial" over the winter.

Currently, three quarters of test results are returned within 24 hours and a quarter can take up to two days
 

adc82140

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A step in the right direction. However I take issue with the comment in the article that it can be carried out by untrained people. Sticking a swab up someone's nose can cause damage if done incorrectly.

I await the outcome of the spit in a tube test evaluation in Southampton. That really would be a game changer.
 

adc82140

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I have more details. The 90 minute test Is the spit test. This really is a game changer. If there's a local outbreak, you can test an entire town if necessary door to door. If you want to run a big event like a wedding, you can test everyone before arrival. This may be the way out of this, short of a vaccine.
 

AdamWW

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I have more details. The 90 minute test Is the spit test. This really is a game changer. If there's a local outbreak, you can test an entire town if necessary door to door. If you want to run a big event like a wedding, you can test everyone before arrival. This may be the way out of this, short of a vaccine.
The article mentioned swabs so I assumed not saliva.
They say it's the lamPORE test, of which the article here says
It is designed to test saliva and swab RNA samples
A test of under 90 minutes start to look as if could work for people boarding (at least long haul) flights.
 

Richard Scott

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The article mentioned swabs so I assumed not saliva.
They say it's the lamPORE test, of which the article here says


A test of under 90 minutes start to look as if could work for people boarding (at least long haul) flights.
This really would be good, can start travelling again! That would help my wellbeing no end.
 

adc82140

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The article mentioned swabs so I assumed not saliva.
They say it's the lamPORE test, of which the article here says


A test of under 90 minutes start to look as if could work for people boarding (at least long haul) flights.
I assumed nasal swabs earlier for the same reason you did, but said swabs are now a quick swipe round the inside of the mouth. The BBC are reporting that the dementia care sector is pleased about this, because basal swabbing a patient with dementia is nigh on impossible.

Edit:

Here's an excerpt from their press release:

"It is designed to test saliva and swab RNA samples, whether gathered from people who are showing symptoms of COVID, or those who do not have symptoms."

So basically it'll do both.
 

AdamWW

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I assumed nasal swabs earlier for the same reason you did, but said swabs are now a quick swipe round the inside of the mouth. The BBC are reporting that the dementia care sector is pleased about this, because basal swabbing a patient with dementia is nigh on impossible.

Edit:

Here's an excerpt from their press release:

"It is designed to test saliva and swab RNA samples, whether gathered from people who are showing symptoms of COVID, or those who do not have symptoms."

So basically it'll do both.
This does sound good.
 

AdamWW

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This has a lot of potential for use at airports on arrival back from lower risk countries (obviously for higher risk ones retaining quarantine would be sensible, though it could be used for "early release").
With that as always there's the problem of someone in the incubation period, I presume. But even catching some infected travellers would be better than nothing.

Depending on costs and availability of materials, I could see something like that being useful for companies that want to do their own screening on staff.

(I know of one university that is setting up its own Covid testing lab for staff and students and I suspect it's not the only organisation with such aims).
 

Yew

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With that as always there's the problem of someone in the incubation period, I presume. But even catching some infected travellers would be better than nothing.

Depending on costs and availability of materials, I could see something like that being useful for companies that want to do their own screening on staff.

(I know of one university that is setting up its own Covid testing lab for staff and students and I suspect it's not the only organisation with such aims).
Indeed, catching those with detectable levels of Covid in their saliva before they can board a plane as significant ramifications for air travel, it might not be 100% coverage, but it should get the most infectious.
 

Bletchleyite

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Indeed, catching those with detectable levels of Covid in their saliva before they can board a plane as significant ramifications for air travel, it might not be 100% coverage, but it should get the most infectious.
Perhaps rail travel too? Wouldn't be practical to do it at the station, but could requiring proof of a test within say one day be required to be shown for travel, and that could allow the removal of distancing measures other than masks?
 

yorkie

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If anyone wishes to discuss any of the good news stories in detail please create a new thread (if there isn't an existing one already)
 

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