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COVID-19 was already in Italy in September 2019?

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Bantamzen

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Link/source: https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...y-as-september-2019-scientists-claim-12133825

What do you make of this? There are several other news stories on similar lines. If it is true it changes the whole story of the virus to date.
Ah, this may have already been covered before. There have been studies into blood samples taken long before the outbreak that showed antibody and B/T-Cell genetic memory giving potential SARS-COV-2 immunity. What this may mean is that exposure to other coronviruses may actually provide some level of immunity to the current virus due to some commonality of the proteins this family of viruses produce. Or in other words not everyone might be susceptible to it, an assumption still used in covid models today.

That's not to say the virus wasn't around much sooner, in reality it could well have been as it. However the more we learn about it, the more we learn that it has many similarities to other viruses in it's family & that we really need to start taking this in account going forward instead of treating it like the Plague.
 

yorksrob

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They found something similar in France by looking at blood samples, although I don't think it went back all the way to September.
 

birchesgreen

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Imagine the plot twist if it was found the virus had started elsewhere and had been imported into China (where it was identified). That would be the perfect cherry on the 2020 cake.
 

yorksrob

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Imagine the plot twist if it was found the virus had started elsewhere and had been imported into China (where it was identified). That would be the perfect cherry on the 2020 cake.

Given that Wuhan had the massive overload in hospital cases first, this seems an unlikely hypothesis.
 

brad465

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They found something similar in France by looking at blood samples, although I don't think it went back all the way to September.
Yes it was over last Christmas, someone who a French hospital thought had pneumonia had retrospective sample testing to find they actually had covid.
Imagine the plot twist if it was found the virus had started elsewhere and had been imported into China (where it was identified). That would be the perfect cherry on the 2020 cake.
Given that Wuhan had the massive overload in hospital cases first, this seems an unlikely hypothesis.
There was also another investigation that Wuhan had a surge in hospital admissions in August. The investigation looked at apparent increases in traffic around hospitals in the area. If that were found to be Covid-related, it would retain that region as being the source.


An apparent surge in traffic outside Wuhan hospitals from August 2019 may suggest the coronavirus hit the area earlier than reported, a study says.

Harvard researchers say satellite images show an increase in traffic outside five hospitals in the Chinese city from late August to December.

The traffic spike coincided with a rise in online searches for information on symptoms like "cough" and "diarrhoea".

China said the study was "ridiculous" and based on "superficial" information.
 

Ianno87

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Yes it was over last Christmas, someone who a French hospital thought had pneumonia had retrospective sample testing to find they actually had covid.


There was also another investigation that Wuhan had a surge in hospital admissions in August. The investigation looked at apparent increases in traffic around hospitals in the area. If that were found to be Covid-related, it would retain that region as being the source.


Am I alone in thinking that there could be a million reasons (that aren't Covid-related) that traffic volume has changed from one year to the next? Strikes me as slightly flimsy "evidence".
 

DelW

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It was reported some months ago that the virus can be detected in sewage effluent, even after it's been treated. In several Spanish and Italian cities, testing of routine samples that had been taken in autumn 2019 found coronavirus to be present.

The 2019 Military World Games were held in Wuhan in late October. It's quite possible that athletes and supporters may have picked up the virus there, but being mainly young and healthy, were either asymptomatic or just thought they had a normal winter bug. They will then have returned to their home countries, potentially spreading it widely well before it had even been recognised.

(Edited to add link to story)
The Italian National Institute of Health looked at 40 sewage samples collected from wastewater treatment plants in northern Italy between October 2019 and February 2020.

An analysis discovered samples taken in Milan and Turin on 18 December showed the presence of COVID-19 - more than two weeks before China reported its first cases.
 
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yorksrob

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The virus seems to have had a habit of circulating around in populations for a while before catching hospital services on the hob. It seems likely that wherever such a surge happenned, there would have been a similar lengthy build up "below the surface".
 

kevin_roche

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One of my friends who lives in The Netherlands had symptoms very like Covid-19 in November 2019. Just prior to that she visited Crete for several weeks.
 

kevin_roche

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I just saw that the Daily Mail web site has an article which says:

Brian Stoodley, a 67-year-old bricklayer from Dorset, suspects he may have been Britain’s coronavirus patient zero. Stoodley returned from Rome in September last year with what he described as a ‘mystery illness’ and nearly died in hospital. Research has shown that Covid-19 was circulating in Italy in September last year, as mentioned in yesterday’s Covid-19 update.

 
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142blue

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My wife had symptoms early December 2019 after a trip to Sweden and Denmark
 

kevin_roche

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One of my friends who lives in The Netherlands had symptoms very like Covid-19 in November 2019. Just prior to that she visited Crete for several weeks.
Actually, it is also possible her Mother might have passed it on as she was teaching in Italy just before and may have had a mild version.
 

Logan Carroll

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Imagine the plot twist if it was found the virus had started elsewhere and had been imported into China (where it was identified). That would be the perfect cherry on the 2020 cake.
The CCP still tried to cover up and downplay the virus at fatal effect to the rest of the world.

Never forget that they bumped off the brave doctor who leaked it, more of a hero than any healthcare staff could ever be.
 

Skimpot flyer

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The virus seems to have had a habit of circulating around in populations for a while before catching hospital services on the hob. It seems likely that wherever such a surge happenned, there would have been a similar lengthy build up "below the surface".
That sounds like a recipe for disaster

(@birchesgreen)
 

yorkie

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One of my friends who lives in The Netherlands had symptoms very like Covid-19 in November 2019. Just prior to that she visited Crete for several weeks.
My wife had symptoms early December 2019 after a trip to Sweden and Denmark
Maybe, but all of my work colleagues who have been very ill with potential Covid symptoms recently had other viruses, such as colds or 'flu. Had they been as ill as they were before testing was widespread they may have thought they had caught Sars-Cov-2.

Actually, it is also possible her Mother might have passed it on as she was teaching in Italy just before and may have had a mild version.
It's not that it's a mild "version" as such; let's not forget most people seem to have no symptoms at all, and of those that do have symptoms, it's likely to be mild. Everyone I know so far who has had Sars-Cov-2 was either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.
 

142blue

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One thing I have learned after having to isolate for nearly two weeks and then contracting it myself is how hard this is mentally and emotionally

It seems unfair when people get really ill but it's also difficult being confined to being at home. It's given me respect for people that have done this to prevent others being unwell and even more respect for those who were told to shield for three months.
 

kevin_roche

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It's not that it's a mild "version" as such; let's not forget most people seem to have no symptoms at all, and of those that do have symptoms, it's likely to be mild. Everyone I know so far who has had Sars-Cov-2 was either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms.
You are right. I used the wrong word there. When I tested positive last month I did not have any symptoms and was shocked to find I had it. Luckily, I had not been out much before that and nobody I had met in the few days before got any symptoms either.

Unfortunately, I do know one person who died from it in April and one who had to spend a month in hospital and has since mostly recovered.

In April I had two other friends who died of strokes, they were not tested for Covid-19. I think there is a possibility that the 'sticky blood' symptoms sometimes seen due to covid caused that.
 

C J Snarzell

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From stories I have heard, there is strong evidence to suggest Covid was already present in the UK around October/November last year.

CJ
 

cuccir

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I must admit I've been skeptical of these claims of a low-level circulation of covid-19. People forget that flu, pneumonia and bronchitis can all be pretty rotten diseases that hospitalize people quite readily.

2019 had lower deaths-per-population than any other year (continuing a downward trend btw; this was not an 'outlier' that can explain excess deaths this year, 11 of the last 20 years have been "lowest death" years as medical practice continues to improve). Indeed, Jan-Feb of 2020 also trended well beneath the rolling deaths average. There was no surge in hospital admissions across Europe. That said, I can't quite account for the findings in the reported study but: it's one study, that hasn't been replicated. I find it easier to imagine that a well-designed study could be producing results that are being misinterpreted or could have some sort of contamination or other error, than to imagine that a virus suddenly sprung to life in March 2020 and started killing people.

I wouldn't discount the possibility of it having circulated in Wuhan for a few months, or that there were isolated cases or clusters associated with travel to/from Wuhan (eg Andy Gill of Gang of Four), but to me it seems more likely that one study is incorrect than a virus would suddenly 'switch-on' in some way. I could be convinced otherwise, but I'd also be surprised.
 

hwl

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I must admit I've been skeptical of these claims of a low-level circulation of covid-19. People forget that flu, pneumonia and bronchitis can all be pretty rotten diseases that hospitalize people quite readily.

2019 had lower deaths-per-population than any other year (continuing a downward trend btw; this was not an 'outlier' that can explain excess deaths this year, 11 of the last 20 years have been "lowest death" years as medical practice continues to improve). Indeed, Jan-Feb of 2020 also trended well beneath the rolling deaths average. There was no surge in hospital admissions across Europe. That said, I can't quite account for the findings in the reported study but: it's one study, that hasn't been replicated. I find it easier to imagine that a well-designed study could be producing results that are being misinterpreted or could have some sort of contamination or other error, than to imagine that a virus suddenly sprung to life in March 2020 and started killing people.

I wouldn't discount the possibility of it having circulated in Wuhan for a few months, or that there were isolated cases or clusters associated with travel to/from Wuhan (eg Andy Gill of Gang of Four), but to me it seems more likely that one study is incorrect than a virus would suddenly 'switch-on' in some way. I could be convinced otherwise, but I'd also be surprised.
The seasonal prevalence of cases of the 4 traditionally circulating human coronaviruses is about 9 times greater in winter than summer, hence early last autumn there could have been very few cases (of "pneumonia" which didn't ring pandemic alarm bells ) which then started to accelerated from October '19 onwards but not noticeable against the general flu background.
The grwoth rates in Jan -March make more sense if there was some low level circulation outside China in late 2019.
 

Carlisle

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and even more respect for those who were told to shield for three months.I
Possibly, although i think you’ll find the majority of able bodied folk who stayed indoors for months on end, had, for a multitude of personal reasons, chosen pretty reclusive lifestyles prior to the Pandemic anyway
 
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CrispyUK

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but to me it seems more likely that one study is incorrect than a virus would suddenly 'switch-on' in some way. I could be convinced otherwise, but I'd also be surprised.
The virus was activated in March by 5G wasn’t it? :lol:
 

6Gman

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Possibly, although i think you’ll find the majority of able bodied folk who stayed indoors for months on end, had, for a multitude of personal reasons, chosen pretty reclusive lifestyles prior to the Pandemic anyway
Not my experience. For example, the elderly, but active, couple (their gardening puts mine to shame) for whom I shopped during their shielding were very active beforehand, and have been very active since.

The virus was activated in March by 5G wasn’t it? :lol:
Even in the areas where 5G hasn't even been switched on.

Cunning!

:D
 

LAX54

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Was it not also suspected that it was in the UK before last Christmas, and mant people were 'ill' in Jan / Feb, but not with the normal flu symptoms.
 
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