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Covid : Infection rates v death rates and a possible second wave

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bramling

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Well indeed.

I don't think there's a depth this government won't plumb. I'm just not convinced that the current situation is because Boris doesn't want to admit he cocked up the first time. Especially as his own backbenchers- including, importantly, the Chair of the 1922 Committee- are starting to revolt.

The whole thing is rather a mess, isn't it?

I think the last bit sums it up really. They’ve got themselves into a hole, and it’s proving difficult to find a way out.
 
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cactustwirly

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With respect Wikipedia can be a very accurate source of information especially when the subject has been well researched, and has the advantage over other encyclopedias in that you can see who has edited the article and when. Now i am not saying its perfect but just blanketly disregarding it is very lazy.

It is nowhere near as accurate as an independently peer reviewed article, from a very well respected scientific journal.
 

Domh245

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:D

I've almost given up with local newspapers - the articles are misinformed clickbait, and the comments are largely garbage, often clearly not having even read the article.

There are articles on local newspaper sites? I thought they were just a selection of dodgy ads!
 

Tetchytyke

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It is nowhere near as accurate as an independently peer reviewed article, from a very well respected scientific journal.

I'm not sure we need to go to that level when we're talking about the several waves* of Spanish Flu, to be quite honest. It's not a controversial thing that needs a citation, surely? Wikipedia is fine as a source if an article on "lockdown sceptics" is!

(*Some journals say three, most say four, both count as "several").

I think the last bit sums it up really. They’ve got themselves into a hole, and it’s proving difficult to find a way out.

Absolutely. And some of it is crap, there's no evidence face masks (one of the more controversial things) make the blindest bit of difference, for instance.

I'm very much on the fence about lockdowns. Happy to be swayed either way. I started out a sceptic and still think Lockdown One was OTT.

But I'm not sure what the other options are, and clearly some of the SAGE experts think it necessary even if other experts don't.

If there is/this is a second wave it needs to be managed one way or another. There are 3.2m people aged over 80 in the UK and 1.6m people working in social care, so "managed shielding" is a big undertaking, and equally can't last forever.

Superspreader events happen in enclosed workspaces, as the Husqvarna factory in Darlington showed, not to mention Trump's entourage all getting it recently. As for hospitality, Andy Burnham said information showed a spike in Bolton was caused by someone going on a pub crawl when they should have been isolating.
 
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brad465

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If there is/this is a second wave it needs to be managed one way or another. There are 3.2m people aged over 80 in the UK and 1.6m people working in social care, so "managed shielding" is a big undertaking, and equally can't last forever.
There would be a large number yes, but if this policy was voluntary (for as long as infections are over a certain level say), you would not have everyone over 80 shielding, given there are folk in such groups who would rather live out their last days to the fullest they can instead of just "existing".
 

Bantamzen

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There is no political advantage whatsoever in making the second wave look worse than it is. "We had lockdown, it worked" is a wonderful message to give, especially in an election year. The incentive is to make the second wave look better than it is.

Lockdown rules were eased right off. That's the crucial thing to remember. It's why the idea that governments are locking down again because of not wanting to lose face doesn't logically work. There's no face to lose. "Lockdown was necessary, lockdown worked, lockdown ended, I'm amazing" is the strongest politicial message. Nobody has to admit they were wrong, even if they were.

As Johnson is showing, a second wave and a second lockdown just makes you look incompetent.

I'm well aware that people stick to dogmatic beliefs to avoid losing face. There are those like lockdown sceptic Prof Sunetra Gupta who, back in June, said half the UK had had Covid, there was herd immunity, and so it was on its way out. Clearly not, eh.


Did I mention political advantage in my last post? I'm pretty certain I didn't. What I am talking about is saving face, the public sector, and indeed Westminster is full of people who don't like to be wrong, who don't like to admit errors. It is not uncommon for these people to simply double down on crap decisions in the hope that somehow they will either suddenly work, or that someone will come along and give them a newer & better paid for job to get them out of the way. This has been the case for decades. What you are witnessing now is that very same process in play.

"OK so a national lockdown somehow didn't work, so how do we 'defeat' the virus"
"Let's have more lockdowns because sooner or later the virus is bound to give up, you know just like the EU will our Brexit demands"
"And Prime Minister if that for some reason doesn't work?"
"Well I say we have more lockdowns. I mean the law of averages means that sooner or later we have to get it right, yes?"
"Yes Prime Minister"
 

jtuk

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I think that would work were it not for the “worst death rate in Europe” badge which Boris reluctantly now wears. He knows there’s a real danger of ending up with a reputation as bad or worse than Blair’s.

Danger of ending up? At this stage he should be on the book for mass criminally negligent manslaughter, crimes against humanity, genocide, take your pick. Not sure what else he has to do - Blair by contrast was just a simple war criminal
 

cactustwirly

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I'm not sure we need to go to that level when we're talking about the several waves* of Spanish Flu, to be quite honest. It's not a controversial thing that needs a citation, surely? Wikipedia is fine as a source if an article on "lockdown sceptics" is!

(*Some journals say three, most say four, both count as "several").

If you actually read about Spanish Flu, it was the exact same virus as Swine flu in 2009 of which there was only 1 wave.
Most of the deaths from Spanish Flu actually resulted from bacterial infections from the poor wartime conditions and not the flu.
 

bramling

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Danger of ending up? At this stage he should be on the book for mass criminally negligent manslaughter, crimes against humanity, genocide, take your pick. Not sure what else he has to do - Blair by contrast was just a simple war criminal

I don’t think history has judged just yet. We haven’t had the inevitable inquiry yet either. The thought of that probably does terrify Boris, though no doubt Cummings is probably busy trying to come up with a mitigation strategy to handle it.
 

trebor79

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Well indeed.

I don't think there's a depth this government won't plumb. I'm just not convinced that the current situation is because Boris doesn't want to admit he cocked up the first time. Especially as his own backbenchers- including, importantly, the Chair of the 1922 Committee- are starting to revolt.

The whole thing is rather a mess, isn't it?
For me this whole situation illustrates why governments should not attempt to legislate us out of an epidemic.
The response should be let by the public health bodies, with advice and information for the population on how to look after ourselves.
Government should be focused on the infrastructure needed to support that, surveillance testing, field hospitals etc. Not legislating how many people you can see, whether it's legal or not in this area to visit your own family etc etc. It's just politicised it and made for a toxic atmosphere.
Government can't win now. Bet they wish they'd stuck with the light touch strategy and not gone down this road.
 

AndyY

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No it's not out of order it's a request for information. If a statement like that is made I'd just like to know statistics behind it. If someone asked me the same then I'd provide the info.

I note that while nitpicking on the word "overwhelmed" and arguing that hospital is 80% not 95% full, no one has not responded to the point I was trying to make: Liverpool was also hit badly in the first wave, and now they have a second wave. For the argument that herd immunity has been reached (note: may not actually exist if there are cases where people can be infected again after recovering), surely there would be no second wave?

A very minor point, but I’ve noticed my local news always announces deaths on social media as deaths “due to” the virus. I’ve tried to explain in the comments section that it’s actually with (past 28 days) and I’ve been called heartless, selfish and other names I cannot repeat on here. People don’t even want to hear the truth because it’s against their agenda/beliefs. What on Earth is going on?

How do you distinguish between someone who died with the virus and someone who died due to the virus?
For example, if a lung cancer patient dies and then tests positives in post mortem, did that person die with the virus? If the patient experienced breathing . difficulties shortly before death, it could be due to both? If you work in the medical profession, is it be possible to provide a simple example?
 

takno

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I note that while nitpicking on the word "overwhelmed" and arguing that hospital is 80% not 95% full, no one has not responded to the point I was trying to make: Liverpool was also hit badly in the first wave, and now they have a second wave. For the argument that herd immunity has been reached (note: may not actually exist if there are cases where people can be infected again after recovering), surely there would be no second wave?
It's not a simple binary concept though. As you get closer to herd immunity in a community, the R value should start to fall until it finally falls to around or below 1 for that community. If we accept that Liverpool was hard-hit in the first wave (there was some dispute about that earlier but I can't be bothered to find the post for you), then that means that the existing population of Liverpool will be closer to herd immunity than most of the rest of the country. That doesn't mean that nobody in Liverpool can get it, or that R can't be more than 1, just that all other things being equal, if people carry on meeting up in the same networks they usually meet up in, and people don't move into Liverpool in large numbers, then R will on average be lower than in other less-hard-hit places.

As it happens neither of those conditions apply to Liverpool (or most cities). We've disrupted the network by sending the kids back to school, exposing millions of families to the wider world who were previously not exposed. In addition, lots of new students have arrived in Liverpool.

The students come from different communities, often in less-hard-hit places with lower population density, and from nice middle class families where mum and dad have worked from home throughout the lockdown, so there has been very little opportunity for them to catch it. As these people are at peak spreading age, and are crowded into relatively small spaces and exposed to the virus for the first time you can expect it to run through them like wildfire. It will cause high numbers but little damage, since they the overwhelming majority of them are in the absolute lowest risk category for the disease. The sudden infections, Combined with the very high levels of testing that have been laid on at lots of unis, will make for some dramatic rises in positive test results. It's a bit of a one-time thing though.

The families with kids at school will also cause a bulge. It will be less large and somewhat longer in the case of kids at school, since kids under about 14 don't appear to infect each other all that well, and they are being kept somewhat distanced in the schools. A likely shape of that change would be a ramp up of the base level of infection over a few weeks, followed by a plateau as you reach approximate herd immunity within the schools.

Depending on how it is calculated, all of this may make it look like Liverpool suddenly has a very bad rate of R for a month. The students as an individual bubble or community will reach and in fact go past herd immunity quite quickly, and probably see numbers start to fall off quite dramatically as a result. The families with kids in school will probably hover at about R=1 for some time.

As both these groups start to mix with the wider population of Liverpool they will infect other people. That will happen based on the prevailing R value for Liverpool as caused by the initial wave of infections. That number is greater than one because Liverpool hasn't reached herd immunity, but may be lower than it is for other areas of the country which were not affected so badly the first time around.

You may, if you like, refer to all of this as a second wave. The main takeaways though are that there is good reason to believe that it will start to blow itself out over the next couple of weeks, that R isn't a single number that exists for a region in a vacuum. Nothing that is happening is unexpected, or nothing provides evidence against the notion that herd immunity is an achievable state. We are probably even quite close to it in a lot of places, possibly including Liverpool.
 
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Richard Scott

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I note that while nitpicking on the word "overwhelmed" and arguing that hospital is 80% not 95% full, no one has not responded to the point I was trying to make: Liverpool was also hit badly in the first wave, and now they have a second wave. For the argument that herd immunity has been reached (note: may not actually exist if there are cases where people can be infected again after recovering), surely there would be no second wave?
There isn't a second wave, the first one didn't go away. A wave is a complete cycle, we haven't had a complete cycle.
 

jumble

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It's not a simple binary concept though. As you get closer to herd immunity in a community, the R value should start to fall until it finally falls to around or below 1 for that community. If we accept that Liverpool was hard-hit in the first wave (there was some dispute about that earlier but I can't be bothered to find the post for you), then that means that the existing population of Liverpool will be closer to herd immunity than most of the rest of the country. That doesn't mean that nobody in Liverpool can get it, or that R can't be more than 1, just that all other things being equal, if people carry on meeting up in the same networks they usually meet up in, and people don't move into Liverpool in large numbers, then R will on average be lower than in other less-hard-hit places.

As it happens neither of those conditions apply to Liverpool (or most cities). We've disrupted the network by sending the kids back to school, exposing millions of families to the wider world who were previously not exposed. In addition, lots of new students have arrived in Liverpool.

The students come from different communities, often in less-hard-hit places with lower population density, and from nice middle class families where mum and dad have worked from home throughout the lockdown, so there has been very little opportunity for them to catch it. As these people are at peak spreading age, and are crowded into relatively small spaces and exposed to the virus for the first time you can expect it to run through them like wildfire. It will cause high numbers but little damage, since they the overwhelming majority of them are in the absolute lowest risk category for the disease. The sudden infections, Combined with the very high levels of testing that have been laid on at lots of unis, will make for some dramatic rises in positive test results. It's a bit of a one-time thing though.

The families with kids at school will also cause a bulge. It will be less large and somewhat longer in the case of kids at school, since kids under about 14 don't appear to infect each other all that well, and they are being kept somewhat distanced in the schools. A likely shape of that change would be a ramp up of the base level of infection over a few weeks, followed by a plateau as you reach approximate herd immunity within the schools.

Depending on how it is calculated, all of this may make it look like Liverpool suddenly has a very bad rate of R for a month. The students as an individual bubble or community will reach and in fact go past herd immunity quite quickly, and probably see numbers start to fall off quite dramatically as a result. The families with kids in school will probably hover at about R=1 for some time.

As both these groups start to mix with the wider population of Liverpool they will infect other people. That will happen based on the prevailing R value for Liverpool as caused by the initial wave of infections. That number is greater than one because Liverpool hasn't reached herd immunity, but may be lower than it is for other areas of the country which were not affected so badly the first time around.

You may, if you like, refer to all of this as a second wave, but the main takeaway is that there is good reason to believe that it will start to blow itself out over the next couple of weeks, that R isn't a single number that exists for a region in a vacuum, and that nothing that is happening is unexpected or provides evidence against the notion that herd immunity is a thing and that we are quite close to it in a lot of places, possibly including Liverpool.

I understood from what Matt Hancock told parliament that herd immunity was impossible and had not worked for measles

( What he thought happened before the measles vaccine was invented is anyone's guess )

This is an excellent example of how some people making decisions about how to deal with the Pandemic are talking out of their elbows
 

HSTEd

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I understood from what Matt Hancock told parliament that herd immunity was impossible and had not worked for measles

Normal R for Measles is also believed to be above 10, and possibly above 20!


Also worth noting that Polio was in large part eradicated by infecting populations with a weakened strain of Poliovirus that spread from person to person naturally!
 

duncanp

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Does anyone know how the government calculates the population of a local authority area for the purposes of determining infection rates?

I say this because the current outbreak/second wave/whatever you want to call it is due in part to the return of students to university, and certainly areas where there are large numbers of students have seen high numbers of cases.

For example, if a student whose family home is in Bristol goes to study at University in Nottingham and tests positive whilst at university, he or she will be included in the number of cases for Nottingham. However, will that student also be included in the population of Nottingham for the purposes of calculating the infection rate?

If not, then that means the infection rate in cities where there are large number of students could be overstated, and in other areas it will be understated.

And I hope the student in my example is not included in the population of Nottingham and Bristol at the same time, although anything is possible with the shambolic test and trace system.
 

Freightmaster

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There isn't a second wave, the first one didn't go away. A wave is a complete cycle, we haven't had a complete cycle.
This.

Transmission of the virus beyond London was artificially suppressed back in March/April due to the closure
of factories/offices/schools/universities coupled with large swathes of the the public, vulnerable or otherwise,
being too scared to leave their homes.

Six months on and although most offices remain closed, schools, universities and factories are all open,
and most people are no longer petrified of meeting others, so the virus is able to pick up where it left off
and the only way to stop it from doing so would be to completely shut down education and manufacturing
completely for at least six months, which is obviously not viable.








MARK
 

Jozhua

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In terms of a second wave peak, it appears we are at it now. I think at most we will see 200-250 deaths per day from Coronavirus in the next month or so.

There will probably be quite a major peak after Christmas and I will be suprised if hospitals don't begin to quite heavily lean on the Nightingales to cope with demand. There is already a peak in deaths post Christmas due to family & friends passing germs to the old and frail and seeing A&E departments getting completely swamped is not uncommon. Coronavirus will probably worsen this, so the nightingales will be very useful. In fact, maybe we should have more hospital beds in general... :rolleyes:

Heard rumours on the vaccine front of things getting a little tricky. Summer 2021 seems likely to be the earliest.

This winter will be the true test of how bad Coronavirus can get. People tired of endless restrictions, cold weather getting people to socialise indoors, etc.

I think any prospect of a "circuit breaker" lockdown is ill conceived, a circuit break implies you are stopping something, which it will not. Perhaps you could call it a "Increased circuit resistance" lockdown, but maybe that's less catchy. The end result is the same though, as soon as you take that resistive load off, cases will increase. Except now you'll be deeper into flu season when it happens.

To save lives this winter we should:
Rollout of the flu Vaccine is more important than ever, especially to stop infections compounding.

Be very careful when meeting elderly/vulnerable relatives, try and keep it outdoors, or wear a mask inside. Get some blankets out if need be!

Keep washing hands frequently, sanitising when this is not possible.

Try to avoid an absolutely mad Christmas shopping rush, maybe do shopping during the week. Stores should extend opening hours and make sure to not let maximum capacity standards slip.

To save lives this winter we should not:
Lockdown and push more people into isolation, depression and poverty, especially when this coincides with bad weather and long nights.

Treat people like children - they will rebel, eventually!

Send out mixed, confused and frustrating messaging.

This.

Transmission of the virus beyond London was artificially suppressed back in March/April due to the closure
of factories/offices/schools/universities coupled with large swathes of the the public, vulnerable or otherwise,
being too scared to leave their homes.

Six months on and although most offices remain closed, schools, universities and factories are all open,
and most people are no longer petrified of meeting others, so the virus is able to pick up where it left off
and the only way to stop it from doing so would be to completely shut down education and manufacturing
completely for at least six months, which is obviously not viable.








MARK
Sounds about right, yes.
 

Bantamzen

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In terms of a second wave peak, it appears we are at it now. I think at most we will see 200-250 deaths per day from Coronavirus in the next month or so.

There will probably be quite a major peak after Christmas and I will be suprised if hospitals don't begin to quite heavily lean on the Nightingales to cope with demand. There is already a peak in deaths post Christmas due to family & friends passing germs to the old and frail and seeing A&E departments getting completely swamped is not uncommon. Coronavirus will probably worsen this, so the nightingales will be very useful. In fact, maybe we should have more hospital beds in general... :rolleyes:

Heard rumours on the vaccine front of things getting a little tricky. Summer 2021 seems likely to be the earliest.

This winter will be the true test of how bad Coronavirus can get. People tired of endless restrictions, cold weather getting people to socialise indoors, etc.

I think any prospect of a "circuit breaker" lockdown is ill conceived, a circuit break implies you are stopping something, which it will not. Perhaps you could call it a "Increased circuit resistance" lockdown, but maybe that's less catchy. The end result is the same though, as soon as you take that resistive load off, cases will increase. Except now you'll be deeper into flu season when it happens.

To save lives this winter we should:
Rollout of the flu Vaccine is more important than ever, especially to stop infections compounding.

Be very careful when meeting elderly/vulnerable relatives, try and keep it outdoors, or wear a mask inside. Get some blankets out if need be!

Keep washing hands frequently, sanitising when this is not possible.

Try to avoid an absolutely mad Christmas shopping rush, maybe do shopping during the week. Stores should extend opening hours and make sure to not let maximum capacity standards slip.

To save lives this winter we should not:
Lockdown and push more people into isolation, depression and poverty, especially when this coincides with bad weather and long nights.

Treat people like children - they will rebel, eventually!

Send out mixed, confused and frustrating messaging.


Sounds about right, yes.

I'd agree with most of those points, save meeting elderly relatives outside. Older people often have a hard time keeping warm without having to only see people outside. No far better to make sure everyone knows to wash their hands, don't go if you have got symptoms or have tested positive or may have been close to someone who has, maybe even help them with cleaning while there to keep surfaces safe for them. And most of all keep in contact with them so that you can spot any potential problems, and get them help if they need it.
 

AndyY

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In view of the fact that any vaccine will not be offered to <50, many people not taking this seriously and have no concern about others, etc. I am reluctantly coming to the view that the best option is to shield the >60 and vulnerable and getting on with it, instead of completing trashing the economy.

It is a shame that other countries have controlled it successfully (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, an international business + aviation hub), and this country is just refusing to learn through bloody mindedness, superiority complex (thinking that no other country can do better than UK), misconception of "freedom", or whatever you call it.
 

Crossover

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It is a shame that other countries have controlled it successfully (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, an international business + aviation hub)
Well, at least one of the places you mention there are generally draconian and my understanding is everyone bows to the leadership. Also I wouldn't trust any "news" that came from South Korea as far as I could throw it as it is unlikely the full truth will ever be publicised from such a country
 

Bletchleyite

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Well, at least one of the places you mention there are generally draconian and my understanding is everyone bows to the leadership. Also I wouldn't trust any "news" that came from South Korea as far as I could throw it as it is unlikely the full truth will ever be publicised from such a country

South Korea is a democracy. Are you mixing it up with North?
 

packermac

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In view of the fact that any vaccine will not be offered to <50, many people not taking this seriously and have no concern about others, etc. I am reluctantly coming to the view that the best option is to shield the >60 and vulnerable and getting on with it, instead of completing trashing the economy.

It is a shame that other countries have controlled it successfully (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, an international business + aviation hub), and this country is just refusing to learn through bloody mindedness, superiority complex (thinking that no other country can do better than UK), misconception of "freedom", or whatever you call it.
Have you not noticed that the countries you mention are all Oriental, where mask wearing is common, most people respect what their government instructs them to do and some have very severe laws and penalties, Singapore for example.
Yes Singapore may be an aviation hub, but not much of a hub when Chinese, Australian and European carriers are virtually or actually not operating flights.
 

DustyBin

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Have you not noticed that the countries you mention are all Oriental, where mask wearing is common, most people respect what their government instructs them to do and some have very severe laws and penalties, Singapore for example.
Yes Singapore may be an aviation hub, but not much of a hub when Chinese, Australian and European carriers are virtually or actually not operating flights.

Whilst I don't think mask wearing has anything to do with it, adherence to (often draconian) rules may be a factor.

Another possibility is that the populations of these countries have a higher level of natural immunity to the virus. SARS type viruses circulate more regulary in that part of the world and cross immunity is certainly possible. Research into this appears to be ongoing, it will be interesting to see.
 

philosopher

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Whilst I don't think mask wearing has anything to do with it, adherence to (often draconian) rules may be a factor.

Another possibility is that the populations of these countries have a higher level of natural immunity to the virus. SARS type viruses circulate more regulary in that part of the world and cross immunity is certainly possible. Research into this appears to be ongoing, it will be interesting to see.

For these reasons, I do really think we should really be comparing ourselves to other European countries that will have more similar cultures, climates and perhaps similar levels of cross immunity. This in mind it seems that almost every European country is now experiencing a second wave. Even Germany and Italy that a few weeks were lauded for apparently appearing to have the virus under control are now experiencing second waves.
 

DustyBin

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For these reasons, I do really think we should really be comparing ourselves to other European countries that will have more similar cultures, climates and perhaps similar levels of cross immunity. This in mind it seems that almost every European country is now experiencing a second wave. Even Germany and Italy that a few weeks were lauded for apparently appearing to have the virus under control are now experiencing second waves.

Agreed, 'apples with apples' as the saying goes....
 

C J Snarzell

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I read a Manchester Evening News article this morning that confirmed there had been two deaths from Covid19 in the last 24 hours. I appreciate it is Monday (Tuesday is the day of giving an accurate figure), but two deaths!!!

Clearly, there are two grieving families out there who have lost love ones and I don't want my comments here to sound disrespectful, but for the sake of two deaths, I can't believe why there is now all this madness between Yellowbelly Burnham and the PM over plunging Greater Manchester in Tier 3?

CJ
 
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