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Cross Country Cancellations - Emergency Timetable

Jamesrob637

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Only one morning and one evening departure/arrival at Manchester are affected

0730 and 2029 arrivals

0803 and 2125 departures
 
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Bikeman78

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I am not exactly a fan of Mr Joyner but every one of the above you can put down to the DfT and the way they have forced their will on the TOC. For instance, the scaling back of route knowledge and not allowing rest day agreements is something that has been imposed elsewhere.

You can add recruitment bans or restrictions on recruitment numbers (irrespective of how many long term sicks you have) and trying to curtail training costs generally. A few years down the line and it all starts to fall apart - I wonder why?!
This brings us back to the same question though. How have some TOCs managed to have plenty of drivers? Are they more profitable, e.g Greater Anglia? Some of their routes are lightly loaded off peak but perhaps the peaks make up for it.
 

louis97

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This brings us back to the same question though. How have some TOCs managed to have plenty of drivers? Are they more profitable, e.g Greater Anglia? Some of their routes are lightly loaded off peak but perhaps the peaks make up for it.
TOCs are not equal, they all have their own features and this all affects the situation they are in. GA were lucky they could continue training during COVID, most if not all other TOCs did no where near as much training during COVID. Depends on the age profile of staff too, any TOC with a significant amount of older drivers might be in a worse situation if a chunk decided to take early retirement during COVID. There are so many variables, another is things like timetable enhancements, if one was planned pre COVID and then dropped during/after, an operator might have more drivers than they otherwise would have had without the timetable enhancement.
 

FenMan

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TOCs are not equal, they all have their own features and this all affects the situation they are in. There are so many variables, another is things like timetable enhancements, if one was planned pre COVID and then dropped during/after, an operator might have more drivers than they otherwise would have had without the timetable enhancement.

GWR were planning 3tph on the North Downs and had recruited appropriately before COVID happened. Which has meant, until recently, staffing of services on this line has been spot on with virtually zero cancellations.

Fast forward to recent weeks and it's a very different story. Cancellations galore, 99% of which are down to "a problem with the train crew".

The service has fallen apart at times, with multiple sequential cancellations in a given direction - the worst I recall being a 3 hour gap in services to Reading during a timetabled 2tph service.

I've no idea what is going on at GWR but, from recruiting and training sufficient staff to deliver a significant service uplift into being incapable of delivering on the post-COVID 2tph timetable does beg serious questions about GWR's competence, at the very least. Digit extraction time.
 
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Bikeman78

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GWR were planning 3tph on the North Downs and had recruited appropriately before COVID happened. Which has meant, until recently, staffing of services on this line has been spot on with virtually zero cancellations.

Fast forward to recent weeks and it's a very different story. Cancellations galore, 99% of which are down to "a problem with the train crew".

The service has fallen apart at times, with multiple sequential cancellations in a given direction - the worst I recall being a 3 hour gap in services to Reading during a timetabled 2tph service.

I've no idea what is going on at GWR but, from recruiting and training sufficient staff to deliver a significant service uplift into being incapable of delivering on the post-COVID 2tph timetable does beg serious questions about GWR's competence, at the very least. Digit extraction time.
This was already the case last year. The day after the infamous OHL incident near Acton, I bailed off a Paddington train at Reading and travelled to Dorking. The two trains after mine were both cancelled owing to lack of crew.
 

Iskra

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Of course it's owned by Arriva; just look at what they did to Northern. Also can't Louise Haigh just end their contract early?
As we've seen on multiple other TOC's, ending a Franchise doesn't solve its problems overnight.
 

Clarence Yard

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Of course it's owned by Arriva; just look at what they did to Northern. Also can't Louise Haigh just end their contract early?

Who “owns” the TOC is now immaterial and has been since 2020. The owning groups don’t have the power to do things like they used to.

You do realise that TOC staff levels, recruitment and training are now effectively decided, in some detail, by the DfT through their annual TOC business plan process? And we are still in the middle of a dispute so covering rest days, especially in the summer holiday period, is still very difficult, even if you have a RD agreement.

Add into that the gaps caused by the increased off sick, waiting NHS attention, numbers and it’s not a great picture.
 

Dr Day

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waiting NHS attention
Going slightly OT, but in franchised days I am aware of several instances of TOCs paying for private medical treatment to get staff back working more quickly. Presume the DfT no longer sanctions such activities?
 

Adam Williams

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Letter from the SoS relating to this: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/crosscountry-service-performance
...I want to put on record my serious concern about the performance of CrossCountry services. Your passengers have been suffering from a substandard service for too long and I am determined to address this. Over the past year, the level of train cancellations across your company has increased significantly and by your own forecasts, you expected to breach your contractual targets for cancellations in the coming months.
I do not find this level of service provision acceptable, nor do I find a three-month reduced timetable to be a satisfactory response. Given your inability to run a full timetable, and the need to provide clear information for passengers I had little choice but to approve this
request...
It doesn't say what the govt will be doing to assist.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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Letter from the SoS relating to this: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/crosscountry-service-performance

It doesn't say what the govt will be doing to assist.
Heres the text
Dear Julian and Scott, Thank you for your letter of 26 July 2024, setting out the reasons why CrossCountry is reducing its timetable for three months. In response I want to put on record my serious concern about the performance of CrossCountry services. Your passengers have been suffering from a substandard service for too long and I am determined to address this. Over the past year, the level of train cancellations across your company has increased significantly and by your own forecasts, you expected to breach your contractual targets for cancellations in the coming months. I do not find this level of service provision acceptable, nor do I find a three-month reduced timetable to be a satisfactory response. Given your inability to run a full timetable, and the need to provide clear information for passengers I had little choice but to approve this request. Put simply, the only reason I accepted your proposal was to give passengers more certainty on which services will run. I did so on the condition that capacity will be increased on those which will operate, and that you will take steps to reduce the backlog of driver training, and demonstrate that you are moving towards better reliability. Furthermore, given your forecast breaches of your contractual cancellation targets, I have required CrossCountry to agree a Remedial Plan that formally contractualises your plan to improve services, and also ensures neither CrossCountry nor its owning group benefit financially from operating fewer services.
If you fail to deliver the Remedial Plan, I will not hesitate to take further action under the
contract.
The Rail Minister has discussed this, and CrossCountry’s wider performance issues, with you on 8th August 2024. The Minister has informed me that we will be expecting an early letter from you setting out, with timings, the improving, quantifiable, performance trajectory which you are able to guarantee passengers, and the Government, as a result of the short term reductions I have reluctantly agreed to, and your other management actions.
I am making this letter public on the Government’s website, and also copying it to the
Chief Executive of Arriva.
Have they reinforced trains that have been removed?
Why say an early letter - should given them two weeks max to respond. Lets see if DfT will publish that response which I doubt although I suspect if it was an OLR operator there wouldn't be the same public drubbing.
 

YorkRailFan

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Heres the text

Have they reinforced trains that have been removed?
Why say an early letter - should given them two weeks max to respond. Lets see if DfT will publish that response which I doubt although I suspect if it was an OLR operator there wouldn't be the same public drubbing.
It's TPE all over again.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Have they reinforced trains that have been removed?
Why say an early letter - should given them two weeks max to respond. Lets see if DfT will publish that response which I doubt although I suspect if it was an OLR operator there wouldn't be the same public drubbing.
There's no hint in the letter than the financial constraints on XC have been relaxed at all.
This is the "stick", but there appears to be no "carrot", beyond being allowed to continue the contract.
I doubt if DfT really wants to take over XC, it's much easier to bang the table with a contractor.
As far as I can see, DfT has yet to make a decision on the future of any TOC contracts beyond the Tory-set specs.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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There's no hint in the letter than the financial constraints on XC have been relaxed at all.
This is the "stick", but there appears to be no "carrot", beyond being allowed to continue the contract.
I doubt if DfT really wants to take over XC, it's much easier to bang the table with a contractor.
As far as I can see, DfT has yet to make a decision on the future of any TOC contracts beyond the Tory-set specs.
The SoS if she can detach herself from being political ought to realise its a lot easier to finger point at a TOC sitting outside the DfT than one thats under the auspices of OLR. Also i suspect if they saw a longer future as an operator they could be coerced more easily into remedying the issues. OLR is no better at delivery in my view and the halo has definitely fallen off LNER so SoS would be wise to get at least a shadow organisation setup before attempting to "nationalise" anymore operators.
 

YorkshireBear

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And what is she going to do about it? That's what we need, there isn't a GBR yet, so what is going to happen or are we just going to go out into the press and lambast them.
 

TUC

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There's no hint in the letter than the financial constraints on XC have been relaxed at all.
This is the "stick", but there appears to be no "carrot", beyond being allowed to continue the contract.
I doubt if DfT really wants to take over XC, it's much easier to bang the table with a contractor.
As far as I can see, DfT has yet to make a decision on the future of any TOC contracts beyond the Tory-set specs.
Why should a poorly performing operator be given a carrot? Do your job or don't bother bidding for contracts.

Having said that, nationalisation is not the answer. Northern and others have shown that a third rate operator continues to be so no matter who owns it.
 

GordonT

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Why should a poorly performing operator be given a carrot? Do your job or don't bother bidding for contracts.

Having said that, nationalisation is not the answer. Northern and others have shown that a third rate operator continues to be so no matter who owns it.
Roger Ford's mantra for years "structure not ownership" (is the significant factor).
 

yorkie

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If anyone would like to speculate, please create a new thread (or use an existing one) in the appropriate forum section.

Thanks :)
 

TheGuy77

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Clarence Yard

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It’s not a franchise, it’s a management contract, which is not going to be renewed.

The game here is that the Secretary of State dislikes private sector involvement in running DfT TOCs and is going to bring what she (with some cause) sees as “leeching” to an end. If she can do it earlier through non performance, especially in the TOCs whose CTED isn’t until 2026/7, all the better.

The owning groups obviously want their management fees till the very last minute so they will be trying to keep their contracts going, even if the DfT has caused some of the issues in the first place! Stay mum, take the rollicking and keep your contract going. Collect your fees, including the base fee and some of the contract performance elements (including the bits about keeping to the DfT set budget) and therefore keep your shareholders happy.

There is a cynical game being played here on both sides.
 

Towers

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It’s not a franchise, it’s a management contract, which is not going to be renewed.

The game here is that the Secretary of State dislikes private sector involvement in running DfT TOCs and is going to bring what she (with some cause) sees as “leeching” to an end. If she can do it earlier through non performance, especially in the TOCs whose CTED isn’t until 2026/7, all the better.

The owning groups obviously want their management fees till the very last minute so they will be trying to keep their contracts going, even if the DfT has caused some of the issues in the first place! Stay mum, take the rollicking and keep your contract going. Collect your fees, including the base fee and some of the contract performance elements (including the bits about keeping to the DfT set budget) and therefore keep your shareholders happy.

There is a cynical game being played here on both sides.
The balance, of course, is that whilst the owners will indeed want to continue to bank their fees for as long as possible, they also aren’t going to spend or invest a penny more than they have to, seeing as they have zero chance of retaining the TOC. So I suppose there may well be a degree of ‘pushing the boundaries’ going on, to see what they can get away with. You have to wonder if XC are increasing their overall profitability by doing what they’re doing. XC of course don’t have the luxury of paring back station staffing to the minimum to save money in their last days, which appears to be a popular tactic elsewhere.
 

Clarence Yard

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You don’t spend or invest your own money in a DfT TOC in any case - you are on management fees only as the DfT effectively now pays the bills and the Government also takes all your revenue.

So there is no overall “profitability” gain for the owning group in not spending money. The only gain is in keeping to the DfT TOC cost target because meeting that is part of your contract performance fee.

Your contract performance fee is a maximum of 2.5 times the base fee and has several components, it’s not just about train performance. All fees paid are “one way”, i.e towards the TOC. The base fee gets paid regardless of any performance.

This is the set up that was meant to be temporary (to keep the private sector interested in running TOCs) but it has been going on for several years now. That’s why there is the allegation by some of “leeching” because the private sector are taking no risk in order to get several million (per TOC) each year out of the DfT.
 

Towers

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You don’t spend or invest your own money in a DfT TOC in any case - you are on management fees only as the DfT effectively now pays the bills and the Government also takes all your revenue.

So there is no overall “profitability” gain for the owning group in not spending money. The only gain is in keeping to the DfT TOC cost target because meeting that is part of your contract performance fee.

Your contract performance fee is a maximum of 2.5 times the base fee and has several components, it’s not just about train performance. All fees paid are “one way”, i.e towards the TOC. The base fee gets paid regardless of any performance.

This is the set up that was meant to be temporary (to keep the private sector interested in running TOCs) but it has been going on for several years now. That’s why there is the allegation by some of “leeching” because the private sector are taking no risk in order to get several million (per TOC) each year out of the DfT.
Interesting. So XC, in this instance, have gained nothing at all by holding back on training, and will gain nothing at all by running a reduced timetable? Not even, for example, paying crews overtime to cover shifts, or stocking the catering provisions, access charges, fuel etc - every penny of every cost associated with running a train from A to B, and all TOC crew training activities, are provided by the DfT, and is varied accordingly if a timetable is enhanced or reduced?
 

Adrian1980uk

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This is first test for the new transport secretary, agree to reduced timetable but insist the following train is doubled up where infrastructure allows..
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Interesting. So XC, in this instance, have gained nothing at all by holding back on training, and will gain nothing at all by running a reduced timetable? Not even, for example, paying crews overtime to cover shifts, or stocking the catering provisions, access charges, fuel etc - every penny of every cost associated with running a train from A to B, and all TOC crew training activities, are provided by the DfT, and is varied accordingly if a timetable is enhanced or reduced?
More or less as any NRC just sends in the costs incurred each four weekly period and then gets the mgt fee added. At the end of each year if they have outperformed the operational and performance targets they can earn additional income. Not sure what XC terms were (its all redacted in the contract document) but for example First group in a stock exchange announcement over FSWR and FTPE at the time indicated that fee income could be tripled if they beat the highest target scores. So given the operational performance metric includes cancellations it wouldn't have been in their interest to cut back on driver training especially if they had included the cost of that in the annual business plan. Given DfT had strangled them on rolling stock until this year when there was some modest expansion agreed it would appear things were improving but clearly below the surface they weren't. I suspect also the last govt had thrown the towel in dealing with any issues being presented to them thus leaving the problem for the new govt. Ultimately new SoS is hell bent on nationalisation despite the track record of OLR is mixed yet we have good privately run operators like GA so hopefully they will be careful about how fast they absorb the NRC operators.
 

irish_rail

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Ultimately new SoS is hell bent on nationalisation despite the track record of OLR is mixed yet we have good privately run operators like GA so hopefully they will be careful about how fast they absorb the NRC operators.
Yes but the reason the current OLR ToCs aren't anything special is because they are still set up to run independently , with their own resources, staff etc. This is what is ineffective about the current system. Begin to amalgamate TOCs, the resources and staff, and suddenly you have a leaner more efficient railway able to respond better to problems. The current OLR TOCs really are not a good example of what life *should* be like under nationalised GBR.
 

Towers

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Yes but the reason the current OLR ToCs aren't anything special is because they are still set up to run independently , with their own resources, staff etc. This is what is ineffective about the current system. Begin to amalgamate TOCs, the resources and staff, and suddenly you have a leaner more efficient railway able to respond better to problems. The current OLR TOCs really are not a good example of what life *should* be like under nationalised GBR.
Absolutely; I certainly hope that as TOCs are taken back in-house we start to see some very substantial rationalisation of backoffice functions etc. Given the reportedly so far very ameniable tone of pay discsussions between the unions and the new government it seems possible that major cost savings are not being sought from frontline staff, so potentially the prize might be seen to be the ‘behind the scenes’ stuff.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Yes but the reason the current OLR ToCs aren't anything special is because they are still set up to run independently , with their own resources, staff etc. This is what is ineffective about the current system. Begin to amalgamate TOCs, the resources and staff, and suddenly you have a leaner more efficient railway able to respond better to problems. The current OLR TOCs really are not a good example of what life *should* be like under nationalised GBR.
Absolutely; I certainly hope that as TOCs are taken back in-house we start to see some very substantial rationalisation of backoffice functions etc. Given the reportedly so far very ameniable tone of pay discsussions between the unions and the new government it seems possible that major cost savings are not being sought from frontline staff, so potentially the prize might be seen to be the ‘behind the scenes’ stuff.
Yup both fair points and really make the case for getting the structure and right leadership in place before anymore NRCs are nationalised
 

HamworthyGoods

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Absolutely; I certainly hope that as TOCs are taken back in-house we start to see some very substantial rationalisation of backoffice functions etc. Given the reportedly so far very ameniable tone of pay discsussions between the unions and the new government it seems possible that major cost savings are not being sought from frontline staff, so potentially the prize might be seen to be the ‘behind the scenes’ stuff.

The back office functions will have the same issues as frontline staff in harmonising pay/T&Cs after nearly 30 years of each operator going their own way as there will be very little common ground.
 

Wyrleybart

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Who'd have thought a driver recruitment strategy based on poaching older types already qualified and inevitably going to retire and only introducing in house training when it's too late would turn into a farce at some point?
I think the XC driver training school at Derby might disagree with you. They are now on cohort No 18 of trainee drivers with courses either consecutive or even overlapping. I am pleased that new-to-grade drivers are in practically every driver depot
 

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