Cross Country franchise: should it be more radical?

[Class 170101]

Moderator note: split from

Cross Country get three-year extension

Great news for all their happy customers... Long-distance train operator CrossCountry, part of the Arriva Group, welcomed the announcement today by the Department for Transport (DfT) that it had been awarded a new three-year contract to keep operating its passenger services across Great...

www.railforums.co.uk

A three year extension to do very little, pretty disappointing really. This was the time to be radical and encourage people back to the railway. This announcement wasn't that.

 

[Starmill]

A three year extension to do very little, pretty disappointing really. This was the time to be radical and encourage people back to the railway. This announcement wasn't that.

That isn't happening anywhere in the whole UK. Indeed, the opposite is currently happening in many places.

 

[43096]

A three year extension to do very little, pretty disappointing really. This was the time to be radical and encourage people back to the railway. This announcement wasn't that.

You’re lucky the trains are still running. With the collapse in demand the Treasury is scrutinising everything - you could make a pretty compelling case for shutting a lot of railway down given the way it’s haemorrhaging cash right now. People really need to start grasping this reality and stop talking about more trains/services/growth as if there is some magic money tree to pay for it.

 

[Class 170101]

You’re lucky the trains are still running. With the collapse in demand the Treasury is scrutinising everything - you could make a pretty compelling case for shutting a lot of railway down given the way it’s haemorrhaging cash right now. People really need to start grasping this reality and stop talking about more trains/services/growth as if there is some magic money tree to pay for it.

You could make a case for shutting anything down during this COVID outbreak. We need to look forward to the future. If the railway isn't ready fopr people to return and customer driven when is over then the people never will return.

 

[47271]

You could make a case for shutting anything down during this COVID outbreak. We need to look forward to the future. If the railway isn't ready fopr people to return and customer driven when is over then the people never will return.

Agreed, but if in the present climate any franchise could have been trimmed back beyond its core with no real loss to public service then it's this one.

They could've cut it north of Newcastle and south of Bristol and improved capacity where it matters. How many old bids will be looking to travel between Montrose and Taunton without changing between now and the end of this deal? Very few I suspect.

 

[Speed43125]

You could make a case for shutting anything down during this COVID outbreak. We need to look forward to the future. If the railway isn't ready fopr people to return and customer driven when is over then the people never will return.

I think he wasn't referring to closing lines, but more just literally shutting train operations down for a month at a time and then restarting once demand was back or we've gotten a vaccine.

 

[Class 170101]

Agreed, but if in the present climate any franchise could have been trimmed back beyond its core with no real loss to public service then it's this one.

They could've cut it north of Newcastle and south of Bristol and improved capacity where it matters. How many old bids will be looking to travel between Montrose and Taunton without changing between now and the end of this deal? Very few I suspect.

Not sure I'd have cut it in the way you have but maybe cuts needed but as a railway it needs to show its here ready and waiting to go which cuts to normal service suggest the opposite.

I'd probably run Hourly as follows
Plymouth - Edinburgh (maybe every other one Glasgow as normal)
Bournemouth to Manchester Hourly
Cardiff to Nottingham Hourly
Cambridge to Birmingham New Street Hourly

No Doncaster or Crewe services, nothing south of Plymouth or Cambridge or north of Edinburgh, or to Paignton.

 

[The Planner]

Not sure I'd have cut it in the way you have but maybe cuts needed but as a railway it needs to show its here ready and waiting to go which cuts to normal service suggest the opposite.

I'd probably run Hourly as follows
Plymouth - Edinburgh (maybe every other one Glasgow as normal)
Bournemouth to Manchester Hourly
Cardiff to Nottingham Hourly
Cambridge to Birmingham New Street Hourly

No Doncaster or Crewe services, nothing south of Plymouth or Cambridge or north of Edinburgh, or to Paignton.

That isnt massively different to what they are doing in Dec 20.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think he wasn't referring to closing lines, but more just literally shutting train operations down for a month at a time and then restarting once demand was back or we've gotten a vaccine.

Doesn’t save much money though - essentially fuel and some consumables, unless you can persuade all the staff to take a month’s unpaid leave as well.

 

[Purple Orange]

It reads like this thread is breaking down to whether you believe in austerity or investing to stimulate growth. Austerity doesn’t work, but XC shouldn’t be a part of the long-term landscape either. It has a shelf life for another 15-20 years and after that I’d break it down to shorter journey patterns, primarily to serve the south west, due to the failure of HS2 to build through capacity in Birmingham.

 

[43096]

It reads like this thread is breaking down to whether you believe in austerity or investing to stimulate growth. Austerity doesn’t work, but XC shouldn’t be a part of the long-term landscape either. It has a shelf life for another 15-20 years and after that I’d break it down to shorter journey patterns, primarily to serve the south west, due to the failure of HS2 to build through capacity in Birmingham.

Invest with what though? The country is broke.

We also don’t know what travel demand will be like once the pandemic is over. The railway has made a fine job of telling us not to travel and making the experience pretty unpleasant - people now using cars may prefer not to use the railway in future (no mask required, no ticket restrictions, no being treated as an inconvenience by staff, comfortable seats etc etc). Investing now for something that may not be needed, using money we haven’t got, doesn’t have a lot going for it.

 

[Bald Rick]

It’s fair to say the industry is going to be in a holding pattern in terms of decisions re growth etc until a clear picture emerges on future demand.

Be thankful that decisions aren’t being taken now based on current forecasts. If they were, all decisions on growth projects would be to stop them.

 

[WestRiding]

Invest with what though? The country is broke.

We also don’t know what travel demand will be like once the pandemic is over. The railway has made a fine job of telling us not to travel and making the experience pretty unpleasant - people now using cars may prefer not to use the railway in future (no mask required, no ticket restrictions, no being treated as an inconvenience by staff, comfortable seats etc etc). Investing now for something that may not be needed, using money we haven’t got, doesn’t have a lot going for it.

Finally, someone not wearing Rose Tinted Glasses. I am going down to London soon, i would normally catch the train, but do not want to sit for 2 hours with a mask on. So i will drive. The railways are done, watch this space. The current service level is unsustainable. We will turn to a predominantly freight railway with minimum infrastructure investment, like the USA. Any upgrade like TPE or HS2, there is no point if people do not come back, and why would they. And as a slight aside, the guards and conductors have signed their own death certificate after months of not checking tickets etc. TOCs will use it as an excuse to get rid.

 

[Purple Orange]

Invest with what though? The country is broke.

It seems like you have swallowed the austerity mantra whole. We need to deal with the pandemic borrowing in the same manner we dealt with other cases of borrowing on a similar scale, (WW1, WW2, Napoleonic Wars, Abolishing slavery and now, the pandemic). Our national debt stands at 100% of GDP and those other cases it went to over 200%. It means paying off the debt for the pandemic over the next century, enabling economies to flow on the meantime.

We also don’t know what travel demand will be like once the pandemic is over. The railway has made a fine job of telling us not to travel and making the experience pretty unpleasant - people now using cars may prefer not to use the railway in future (no mask required, no ticket restrictions, no being treated as an inconvenience by staff, comfortable seats etc etc). Investing now for something that may not be needed, using money we haven’t got, doesn’t have a lot going for it.

You need to look beyond the pandemic. We will adapt and we won’t be living like this forever. Car usage is also not sustainable, given the bigger climate emergency. Electric train travel needs to happen.

To bring it back on topic, XC (or whatever is left after HS2) needs to have eliminated diesel under wires.

 

[43096]

You need to look beyond the pandemic. We will adapt and we won’t be living like this forever. Car usage is also not sustainable, given the bigger climate emergency. Electric train travel needs to happen.

You need to re-read what I actually wrote, rather than what you think I wrote.

 

[Purple Orange]

You need to re-read what I actually wrote, rather than what you think I wrote.

I did. I think you’re being too short term.

Anyhow, back to XC and being radical, it all depends on how HS2 phase 2b is delivered. In the next 15-20 years, not much will change for the XC routes so focus should be on the rolling stock. In the short term, get the 22X units from Avanti & EMR, refurbish, ensure 7, 8 or 9 car formations between Bristol, Reading, Manchester & Edinburgh. That in itself is it that radical.

If the eastern HS2 branch is built, I’d reform the network to be centred on serving Bristol (using Parkway as a pivot), given that it is completely ignored by HS2. Therefore the core of the network becomes Bristol Parkway-Birmingham, with branches splaying out to Liverpool, Manchester, Plymouth, Swansea & Leeds. I would cut the network north of Leeds.

 

[Starmill]

Not sure I'd have cut it in the way you have but maybe cuts needed but as a railway it needs to show its here ready and waiting to go which cuts to normal service suggest the opposite.

I'd probably run Hourly as follows
Plymouth - Edinburgh (maybe every other one Glasgow as normal)
Bournemouth to Manchester Hourly
Cardiff to Nottingham Hourly
Cambridge to Birmingham New Street Hourly

No Doncaster or Crewe services, nothing south of Plymouth or Cambridge or north of Edinburgh, or to Paignton.

This is broadly what's been uploaded already for December 2020. Worth noting it still leaves Bristol to Manchester on a 61 minute wait in Birmingham and increases journey time from 3 hours to 4 in addition to the removal of the through trains.

 

[tbtc]

This was the time to be radical

I think that, in years to come, we'll look back at "maintaining the status quo" (on a rail franchise) was quite an achievement, compared to all of the cuts to other public services - sometimes the railway doesn't realise how insulated it has been from austerity.

But, ignoring all of the optimistic "if you build it, they will come" stuff, I'd be interested to know what would have been a "radical" option for XC?

• Paths through Coventry/ Birmingham/ Leeds/ Stockport etc are pretty limited, so there's not much scope to increase services.
• Few trains will be able to match current Voyager timings, so there's not much else you can use right now to cascade to it (certainly not full length HSTs!).
• There's very little scope to use trains that don't match Voyager timings on the routes that Voyagers operate or to tweak the paths by a few minutes here and there (since anything unable to accelerate as well or match the same top speed will find itself stuck behind stoppers and delayed significantly)
• The trains that are able to match current Voyager timings are the Avanti 221s and EMR 222s that will be freed up in the medium term, so no franchise extension is going to be able to promise to use them
• By the mid 2030s, HS2 will make a big difference to journeys like Birmingham - Manchester/ Leeds, so any big improvements to HS2 today may not have long enough to pay off before HS2 becomes the main service for a number of XC journeys
• Electrification hasn't gone as planned (e.g. the route from Oxford to Southampton should have been wired up by now, but the Electric Spine was abandoned and the GWML electrification delayed/deferred), which limits scope to improve things
• Project Thor wasn't viable a decade ago, so will be even more costly/complicated today (given the limited life left for Voyagers, compared to when it was originally suggested)
• Too much local "politics" in trimming the Aberdeen/Penzance "fringes"

So what "radical" options are there for XC? Not a great deal. Grab some second hand centre coaches to bolster the 170 fleet? They're doing that. Replace the period features on the 1970s HSTs with power doors? That too. Sit around and wait for the 221/222s to be freed up? Maybe that's the plan too, but nobody can say that officially just yet.

Also, whilst the Government have plenty of other things not heir hands before they try to come up with a "solution" for the railways (subcontract the whole thing to SERCO, as they are doing with so much of their Covid response?), XC is realistically going to be the final piece in the jigsaw - they need to tackle the majority of other bits of the railway before they can fit XC into things - I think it was always going to be dumped in the long grass for a while, as the Government sit with other decisions to take (just as XC has been for most of the past decade, sadly).

 

[Class 170101]

I think that, in years to come, we'll look back at "maintaining the status quo" (on a rail franchise) was quite an achievement, compared to all of the cuts to other public services - sometimes the railway doesn't realise how insulated it has been from austerity.

But, ignoring all of the optimistic "if you build it, they will come" stuff, I'd be interested to know what would have been a "radical" option for XC?

• Paths through Coventry/ Birmingham/ Leeds/ Stockport etc are pretty limited, so there's not much scope to increase services.
• Few trains will be able to match current Voyager timings, so there's not much else you can use right now to cascade to it (certainly not full length HSTs!).
• There's very little scope to use trains that don't match Voyager timings on the routes that Voyagers operate or to tweak the paths by a few minutes here and there (since anything unable to accelerate as well or match the same top speed will find itself stuck behind stoppers and delayed significantly)
• The trains that are able to match current Voyager timings are the Avanti 221s and EMR 222s that will be freed up in the medium term, so no franchise extension is going to be able to promise to use them
• By the mid 2030s, HS2 will make a big difference to journeys like Birmingham - Manchester/ Leeds, so any big improvements to HS2 today may not have long enough to pay off before HS2 becomes the main service for a number of XC journeys
• Electrification hasn't gone as planned (e.g. the route from Oxford to Southampton should have been wired up by now, but the Electric Spine was abandoned and the GWML electrification delayed/deferred), which limits scope to improve things
• Project Thor wasn't viable a decade ago, so will be even more costly/complicated today (given the limited life left for Voyagers, compared to when it was originally suggested)
• Too much local "politics" in trimming the Aberdeen/Penzance "fringes"

So what "radical" options are there for XC? Not a great deal. Grab some second hand centre coaches to bolster the 170 fleet? They're doing that. Replace the period features on the 1970s HSTs with power doors? That too. Sit around and wait for the 221/222s to be freed up? Maybe that's the plan too, but nobody can say that officially just yet.

Also, whilst the Government have plenty of other things not heir hands before they try to come up with a "solution" for the railways (subcontract the whole thing to SERCO, as they are doing with so much of their Covid response?), XC is realistically going to be the final piece in the jigsaw - they need to tackle the majority of other bits of the railway before they can fit XC into things - I think it was always going to be dumped in the long grass for a while, as the Government sit with other decisions to take (just as XC has been for most of the past decade, sadly).

I would certainly be looking at Class 221/222s from Avanti / EMR coming to this Franchise and perhaps more HSTs with powered doors if its only for the short term such to as to allow existing services to run as full length trains vice 4/5 carriage trains.

If the above not available I would have ordered some IEPs (MML design) to replace HSTs and some 4/5 carriage workings Class 22x so they could be doubled up to either 8/9/10 sets. If it included 3rd Rail Capability then Manchester to Coventry, Didcot to Reading West, and Basingstoke to Bournemouth would be on electric power on the Bournemouth to Manchester service where I would probably deploy them. They could be deployed from Plymouth to Scotland but that would be less electrified operation (Doncaster to Edinburgh / Glasgow only). Of course if the MML was wired throughout as originally suggested then Derby to Sheffield (and maybe Doncaster / Wakefield Westgate) would have been on electric too.

Referring to HS2 I would very surprised if HS2b Eastern opens before 2035 and probably 2040. The DfT and especially the Treasury seem to have got cold feet on this and given £800m increase as reported elsewhere already I don't hold out a lot of hope.

Dumping it in the long grass is the worst thing to do. If crowded trains are what people are coming back to post covid they won't be coming back.

 

[JonathanH]

Dumping it in the long grass is the worst thing to do. If crowded trains are what people are coming back to post covid they won't be coming back.

The problem you aren't quite taking into account is that no one knows when 'post covid' is. It isn't tomorrow, it probably isn't 2021, it could be 2022, it could be 2025, it could be 2030, it could be never. (I hope it isnt too long but neither you nor me know. (I'm not quite sure what happens if it is between May and September each year for the forseeable future.))

The 'spare' 221s and 222s aren't going to be snapped up by anyone else so why commit to them now? It is actually a very sensible decision not to sign up to lease arrangements now in a period of uncertainty.

Even if the ROSCOs called the bluff of the DfT and found alternative use for the 221s and 222s, if there is a return to people travelling in the future, different units could be procured.

At the moment the money simply isn't there for the grandiose plans you suggest. At some point the Cross Country solution needs to include something radical but that time isn't now.

 

[43096]

The problem you aren't quite taking into account is that no one knows when 'post covid' is. It isn't tomorrow, it probably isn't 2021, it could be 2022, it could be 2025, it could be 2030, it could be never. (I hope it isnt too long but neither you nor me know. (I'm not quite sure what happens if it is between May and September each year for the forseeable future.))

The 'spare' 221s and 222s aren't going to be snapped up by anyone else so why commit to them now? It is actually a very sensible decision not to sign up to lease arrangements now in a period of uncertainty.

Even if the ROSCOs called the bluff of the DfT and found alternative use for the 221s and 222s, if there is a return to people travelling in the future, different units could be procured.

At the moment the money simply isn't there for the grandiose plans you suggest. At some point the Cross Country solution needs to include something radical but that time isn't now.

DfT is controlling the allocation of all trains to operators very tightly now - indeed the current agreements give DfT carte blanche to move trains between operators. So unless Beacon and Eversholt can find open access or export offers for the 221/222 fleets, it'll be up to DfT to decide what goes where. It would be highly foolish to commit XC to (say) taking the 221s off Avanti when they become free, only to find demand wasn't there to support it.

Those arguing otherwise really aren't in the real world of what's going on.

 

[geordieblue]

I did. I think you’re being too short term.

Anyhow, back to XC and being radical, it all depends on how HS2 phase 2b is delivered. In the next 15-20 years, not much will change for the XC routes so focus should be on the rolling stock. In the short term, get the 22X units from Avanti & EMR, refurbish, ensure 7, 8 or 9 car formations between Bristol, Reading, Manchester & Edinburgh. That in itself is it that radical.

If the eastern HS2 branch is built, I’d reform the network to be centred on serving Bristol (using Parkway as a pivot), given that it is completely ignored by HS2. Therefore the core of the network becomes Bristol Parkway-Birmingham, with branches splaying out to Liverpool, Manchester, Plymouth, Swansea & Leeds. I would cut the network north of Leeds.

Ignoring York, Newcastle, Preston, Carlisle and literally all of Scotland? Something tells me this isn't going to happen.

 

[Purple Orange]

Ignoring York, Newcastle, Preston, Carlisle and literally all of Scotland? Something tells me this isn't going to happen.

Preston & Carlisle are not on the XC network to begin with, so I’m not sure why they would be added. The ECML north of Leeds/York will be dominated by HS2 services. If you’re travelling from Newcastle a change from HS2 on to a Birmingham to Bristol will be far quicker. At the time you arrive in Birmingham, the XC service from Newcastle would still be an hour away further north.

 

[Jozhua]

You’re lucky the trains are still running. With the collapse in demand the Treasury is scrutinising everything - you could make a pretty compelling case for shutting a lot of railway down given the way it’s haemorrhaging cash right now. People really need to start grasping this reality and stop talking about more trains/services/growth as if there is some magic money tree to pay for it.

Magic money tree
A country's finance does not work like that of an individual.

BTW, have you actually been on a train in the last couple of months? They are far from empty. Most of the ones I've been on have been 50% full or more, especially on the leg between Birmingham and Manchester, where I was on a train at least 60-70% full.

Shutting "a lot of" the railway down would be absolutely ridiculous, they are probably still at higher loadings than they were 30 years ago.

Invest with what though? The country is broke.

We also don’t know what travel demand will be like once the pandemic is over. The railway has made a fine job of telling us not to travel and making the experience pretty unpleasant - people now using cars may prefer not to use the railway in future (no mask required, no ticket restrictions, no being treated as an inconvenience by staff, comfortable seats etc etc). Investing now for something that may not be needed, using money we haven’t got, doesn’t have a lot going for it.

Travel demand will absolutely recover. It has already begun to, despite restrictions and the risk of roni still being in place.

I agree the industry has been making things unpleasant, but this isn't unique to the railways. Moving people to cars - which kill tens of thousands through air pollution caused respiratory illnesses each year seems like not such a good idea.

We absolutely have money to invest and in fact, investing in infrastructure is a great idea right now. Instead of paying people to sit on their bums and watch TV, how about paying some of them to build something that will last for decades to come and help the move to sustainable transport?

Pretending that people aren't absolutely bursting to get back out travelling and socialising is silly, when they do so, how about providing them a safe, fast, convenient, environmentally friendly and, if we really bang some heads together, cheap way of getting around. Remote working is only viable for something like 1/4 of the population and even for those, it will provide the opportunity to travel while they work, staying with friends/family more often.

 

[43096]

BTW, have you actually been on a train in the last couple of months? They are far from empty. Most of the ones I've been on have been 50% full or more, especially on the leg between Birmingham and Manchester, where I was on a train at least 60-70% full.

Yes, I have been on trains in the last couple of months. All very quiet - nowhere near 50% loadings, more like 10% maximum.

 

[Purple Orange]

I think it is very naive to think that travel on public transport will not recover and grow beyond 2019 levels. Such a belief needs to come with several big assumptions:

• The economy will not recover, ever.
• People will work from home for a majority of their time, on a permanent basis
• Car usage will increase proportionally and continue to do so
• There will be no vaccine
• Ignoring the huge number of people who have (post lockdown) taken to going out. Thousands of people in bars & restaurants.
• We all want to stay at home
• We have no desire to travel

It is too far fetched to think that the last 6 months represents the status quo going forward.

I will add this link for context, to show the equivalent year should we see a long-term fall.

Historical national rail passenger journeys in the United Kingdom 2023 | Statista

In the fiscal year 2022/23, more than 1.3 billion passenger journeys were made on national rail services in the UK.

www.statista.com

 

[Bevan Price]

There are a lot of points of uncertainty about how Cross Country may be affected in future.

1. There is going to be a big shortage of money to spend on "public" projects - including railways - possibly for at least 20-30 years.
2. The "Covid" problem will decline, and passenger traffic will slowly return, but that may take at least 5 - 10 years.
(And another malevolent virus could come into existence at some time -- probably again due to human stupidity with "wild food".)
3. The "Sturgeon" factor. If Scotland ever becomes independent, it will want to join the EU -- and the EU WILL require some kind of customs checks at the England / Scotland border. Inevitably, that will cut (but not eliminate) the number of passengers crossing the border.
So:
4. In consequence, I suspect that HS2 will terminate at Manchester, with little chance of an Eastern branch being built much before 2050.
5. Cross Country - if it still exists - may lose all services between Manchester & Birmingham.
6. East Coast Cross Country services may eventually not go further north than Newcastle.

Some Voyagers will almost certainly transfer from Avanti, to boost capacity (or enable less overcrowding) on XC routes. But - remember, they have done a lot of hard work, and cannot last for ever. How long before it becomes cheaper to replace rather than keep repairing ? 2030 ? 2040 ???

No easy solutions, I am afraid.

 

[geordieblue]

Preston & Carlisle are not on the XC network to begin with, so I’m not sure why they would be added. The ECML north of Leeds/York will be dominated by HS2 services. If you’re travelling from Newcastle a change from HS2 on to a Birmingham to Bristol will be far quicker. At the time you arrive in Birmingham, the XC service from Newcastle would still be an hour away further north.

Fair point about Preston and Carlisle - I'd got confused - but it's madness to not offer a classic service from Scotland to the south west instead of forcing one or possibly two changes (I can't imagine Aberdeen will be getting many HS2 trains).

 

[Jozhua]

There are a lot of points of uncertainty about how Cross Country may be affected in future.

1. There is going to be a big shortage of money to spend on "public" projects - including railways - possibly for at least 20-30 years.

There is no shortage of cash to spend on capital projects. Remember - infrastructure spending does not come from taxpayer's money - it is funded by bonds which are then paid for by the economic growth brought by the project. An unstable market for investment into businesses means more will be looking for the security of government bonds, lowering the interest the government will have to pay.
In the meantime, there is massive unemployment and a real need for a cash injection into the economy. Spending money on infrastructure - which if done correctly, will essentially pay for itself - is a fantastic way of boosting the economy and helping to lift us out of the Corona hole.
Economies are not run by the gods. We don't have to "repent for our sins". They are made by people. If we tighten our belts, the economy shrinks accordingly.

2. The "Covid" problem will decline, and passenger traffic will slowly return, but that may take at least 5 - 10 years.
(And another malevolent virus could come into existence at some time -- probably again due to human stupidity with "wild food".)
3. The "Sturgeon" factor. If Scotland ever becomes independent, it will want to join the EU -- and the EU WILL require some kind of customs checks at the England / Scotland border. Inevitably, that will cut (but not eliminate) the number of passengers crossing the border.
So:
4. In consequence, I suspect that HS2 will terminate at Manchester, with little chance of an Eastern branch being built much before 2050.
5. Cross Country - if it still exists - may lose all services between Manchester & Birmingham.
6. East Coast Cross Country services may eventually not go further north than Newcastle.

Some Voyagers will almost certainly transfer from Avanti, to boost capacity (or enable less overcrowding) on XC routes. But - remember, they have done a lot of hard work, and cannot last for ever. How long before it becomes cheaper to replace rather than keep repairing ? 2030 ? 2040 ???

No easy solutions, I am afraid.

If the government is sensible, it will set out a long term investment plan - including the eastern leg of HS2.

I think Scotland will have difficulty becoming independent, and if it does, a lot of people will be angry to lose their direct train connections.

The easiest solution would be to sit back and do nothing, while passengers continue to pay the price and more people turn to our ever congested and polluting road system. The "hard" solution will be to continue building HS2 and in the meantime investing into proper bi-modes for the Cross Country route.

Yes, I have been on trains in the last couple of months. All very quiet - nowhere near 50% loadings, more like 10% maximum.

All the ones around Manchester are still pretty busy. Even the Metrolink trams - seen quite a few roll by standing room only at rush hour.

 

[Purple Orange]

Fair point about Preston and Carlisle - I'd got confused - but it's madness to not offer a classic service from Scotland to the south west instead of forcing one or possibly two changes (I can't imagine Aberdeen will be getting many HS2 trains).

If an argument can be made for Aberdeen-Penzance, or even Edinburgh-Bristol, it can also be made for connecting distant cities that are not already connected too. Aberdeen-Ipswich or Norwich-Swansea. The issue is that there is very little passenger numbers for those journeys and if Glasgow-London struggles to compete with a flight in to Heathrow, a train from Aberdeen, Edinburgh or even Newcastle to Bristol is not going compete with air travel.