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Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by gavin, 31 Aug 2018.
That's the bit with no transitions between the CBTC signalling and other systems...
But it's only the completely new section (Abbey Wood to Paddington low level) which was due to open in December anyway, which has no interaction with existing lines
The power transformer blowout at Pudding Mill Lane severely delayed dynamic testing of the core CBTC by many months, as a new unit had to be built and thoroughly tested before trains could start to run.
Once they did, the problems with the core CBTC were discovered.
A train running between abbey wood and paddington doesnt nessescarily mean there is a signalling system in the core in a functional/ reliable enough state to provide an passenger operational service. And for depot moves there is interaction with the gwml.
Yes, many other rail developments have been or are still late. As well as new timetables for Northern Rail and Thameslink, other examples are electrifications for Bolton, Goblin and Edinburgh-Glasgow Queen Street. Also tram-train to Rotherham is late although promised for opening late Autumn.
Being late isn't necessarily a problem, but the poor and excessively late communication around it is just plain dishonest. I was involved with Crossrail in 2017 and we all knew December 2018 was impossible back then already (this was fact not speculation) - it pretty much came up in every discussion around the office, but we weren't allowed to acknowledge or plan around the delay we all knew was going to happen. This dishonesty forced down from the top caused wasteful expenditure (so many ops staff have been employed and now have to just sit around), corners to be cut (more corners than you'd imagine!) and endless amounts of stress to deliver the undeliverable. In the end, everyone was just looking for whoever would blink first - they would be blamed for all the delays and everyone else would just be the "unfortunate victims" of the delay. Honestly, when the sub-station exploded last year, I was hoping that someone would come to their senses and be upfront about what we knew about, just to take the stupid pressure off, but instead, they kept reassuring everyone that it would open "on time".
My fear is that this happened so late that corners were cut to make the original deadline - I doubt that decisions made to just deliver on time would now be revised in line with having some additional time and money to do things properly.
This was by far the worst project I have ever been involved with and it's all down to poor senior management. The manager I dealt with had no prior experience of railways, nor of delivering a large infrastructure project and he surrounded himself with a team who only told him what he wanted to hear.
As could have been anticipated, from the moment the delay was announced work seems to have stopped elsewhere. At the point I see at Custom House things have just been laft part-done as they were the day of the announcement, and you never see site labour there any more, who were very prominent in the days immediately beforehand.
Are they hoping to just all come back 3 months before September 2019 and pick up at speed where they left off?
It's probably to be expected that works will be reprioritised in light of the change of delivery date; to some extent, works in some locations can probably be pushed back now that there's a bit of breathing room. I'm still unclear on what the actual timetable for delivery now is, beyond "something will open in the autumn".
The sycophantic 'Yes' men & women. The cancer at the heart of many a project and organisation.
Then again a boss surrounded mostly by enemies might well achieve even less in a given time, considering the hours that will probably be wasted on arguing and point scoring routines
I suspect Crossrail are not yet certain themselves. Until they get a train / trains that have a "final" (for testing) set of signalling software and start testing them they can't know if they've got a bug ridden mess to fix or if things will proceed more smoothly. I expect those stations that have work outstanding are still proceeding at as fast a pace as can be delivered in terms of final construction / fit out / commissioning. I can understand why pressure may have been taken off at Custom House given it was largely complete when they allowed the public in.
The biggest question is when the NR sections get linked in. I expect the financial pressure to get revenues in from the wider network of services will be immense but, of course, there are a load of dependencies with other parties that need resolution before expanded services can happen.
Crossrail will open in 2020, between Easter and May, not in 2019.
And your source for this is…?
I was correct when I posted on 3 July that it would not open December 2018 (something I learnt in December 2017), multiple sources.
I feel that's too far away to have an accurate forecast of when it'll be. Assuming your sources are accurate, the most they should be saying at this stage is 'it will not be as early as Autumn 2019'.
Not very convincing.
It might be 2020 by the time we see full service on all branches, depending on what happens with the core. It seems unlikely that a delay of nine months would be announced if there was a serious chance of breaching a second deadline.
But anybody can post on here saying they have sources. Who are yours? Otherwise we cannot say if you are well connected or just making up lucky guesses!
True, we also need to clarify what 'crossrail will open' means. Given the December 2018 date was referenced I assumed it meant core. Easter 2020 isn't far beyond the original full completion date. As it stands I'm sceptical the full Great Western -> Abbey Wood services will be operational by May 2020 without any further announced delays. It's also disappointing that at this late stage I don't think there's been any official announcement about the service pattern. People keep discussing the direct trains from the Stratford branch out to Ealing Broadway / Heathrow etc. that are delayed and I don't have the heart to tell them.
Does 'open' mean core open or fully open? I can well imagine through trains from Shenfield and Reading may only start in early 2020 given recent announcements.
However I thought the conventional wisdom was a bit more optimistic on Paddington to Abbey Wood services.
If you are so desperate to show you have much more knowledge than anyone, one wonders why you didn't post it in December 2017.
I will not give away my sources, but lets give you some help!
Do some maths on the works still programmed, where work actually is at on some core stations (and how long it was proposed to get from there to ready to open when this information was public), the need for Xmas possessions in 2018 AND 2019 to get the railway ready, read about the change of director of Crossrail & why; go look at some of these sites and where they are construction wise (ignoring the few that are visually nearly there).
Think of the politics, change of director, opportunity to announce further delay following his review of where Crossrail is at. The £350 million given to tide TfL over etc, the signs are there in the public domain if you look & think about it.
Why should I?
Then why even try to claim you knew back then?
Ah, so in other words you're pulling the information entirely from your own bottom.
It's always possible that opening will be delayed further. Nothing substantive appears to have (publicly) happened since the delay was announced that suggests the planned opening date will slip further. You might have better information, of course – if you do, then I'd suggest that being a little less conspiratorial, vague and defensive might be better way to get your point across.
To be fair many people don't reveal their sources, especially if it could cost them their job/trust. I, like I think many, expected XR to be late and to me, there doesn't seem to be a load of confidence that it'll open in Autumn.
That isn't impossible.
But not unprecedented.
The problem with them doing that and the other criticisms against those who have posted further news, is that companies have a strict social media policy and if they put forward their sources and named them then they would fall foul of that and could be disciplined for it.
Either take the info as presented or do not - thats the only choice you have.
Except possessions on the existing railways would only be needed to ready connections to the Reading/Heathrow and Shenfield branches, none of which are needed to launch the core service.
Oversite developments were never intended to be finished when the railway opens, as a person on the street it's impossible to gauge readiness of the station underneath. For example I gather Farringdon is basically finished and ready for passengers, but above ground it still looks like a giant muddy hole as they're still piling for the office building that's going up on top.
That said I'm not necessarily a doubter. Just you have to accept there's no verifiable public evidence for your position.
There are lots of paths in RTT for testing from 1 December onwards, are these going to be used?
I found myself checking because the time between stations looked suspiciously short. But yes, it really is that fast. Only a couple of mins between stations in the Core, even though some of them are quite far apart compared to the tube.
There are ways of dealing with this problem in a friendly manner. 'Unfortunately I can't disclose who these sources are but they have assured me that etc. etc.' is better than 'I was right last time. Why should I have to tell you?'
That sort of reply does often lead people to suspect you're just making it up, even though you may not be. I don't have an issue with the source not wanting to be named, but I'd be much more inclined to accept "it'll be delayed further, probably Easter/May 2020 at least" than "will be between Easter and May 2020" as a definite. That's simply too far away to be so precise.
Those test diagrams have been in there for months, there were diagrammed services as far back as September I think which have been and gone. Yes, the timing is accurate. If you compare the distance between stations and the time taken, it still comes in slower than the fastest deep tube lines like the Jubilee and indeed is on a par with the existing timetable above ground services East of Stratford. It's easily achievable.