Crossrail opening delayed until sometime between October 2020 and March 2021

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by gavin, 31 Aug 2018.

  1. mrmartin

    mrmartin Member

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    I disagree, I thought the whole point of the new opening window was that it was extremely thoroughly researched (it took months and months to put together), and IIRC was more of a 'worst case scenario'. I remember the new chief executive saying something like that. It's already slipping massively from that.

    Looking at page 37 you can see what a mess things are. Bond street is totally unfinished, whitechapel not much better, other stations far off completion. Only custom house is anywhere close to finished. It's projecting basically a year delay to get the stations finished (not sure what the original date was meant to be for that in the programme).

    Regardless, the stations weren't even considered to be the most at risk parts of the programme, dynamic testing and railway software/signalling was.

    Consider that there is still no opening date for 345s to Heathrow which is by itself nearly 18 months late and I don't think that is looking too great either.

    I'd strongly suspect it being at least 2022 for first operating date after reading that report.
     
  2. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    There used to be a sign outside Bond street with an end date in 2016. There is a close up of it on the Hyde Park Now Blog.
    They took it down last year.
     
  3. Geogregor

    Geogregor Member

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    For me the most worrying bit is this one:
     
  4. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    There are two new letters from Mark Wild on the TfL website.

    The first is a response to the Jacobs Project Representative Report (dated 8th July) and the second is his monthly status report to the London Assembly Transport Committee (dated 12th July).

    In the response to the Jacobs Report he argues that emerging risks they have included cannot be expected to have mitigations.
    From my first reading of the monthly status report I see that there has been a delay to handing over assets which seems to me to have been predicted by Jacobs.
     
  5. Railwaysceptic

    Railwaysceptic Member

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    Being a Londoner of roughly the same vintage as you, I know what you mean. The trick is to know where all the public lavatories are. Several stations, including London Underground stations, do still have them, particularly in the outer suburbs. On the street, the most reliable source of relief is the big supermarkets, but that means you also have to know where they are!
     
  6. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    I agree that is worrying. In his his monthly status report letter, Mark Wild seems to think that more recent success indicates that testing the trains is on track.

    However I remain concerned that there are a number of issues that are not being addressed in a timely fashion. In particular there is a mention in the Jacobs reports of the testing in the Heathrow tunnels of the ETCS signalling. Unfortunately parts of these comments are redacted so it is difficult to see exactly what the issues are but Mark Wild doesn't mention them in his report.

    One other issue that I have recently become aware of is that there is a need to run more trains for more miles to get reach the targets set for approval of the use of the 345. Part of the reason for commencement running Passenger Services from Paddington to Reading in December 2019 is to build up mileage. This seems to me a bit like trying to pull yourself up by your shoelaces.
     
  7. Belperpete

    Belperpete Member

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    It is not unusual for there to be a lengthy period of in-service running (usually requiring an agreed MTBF to be achieved) before rolling stock is accepted by the purchaser.
     
  8. Belperpete

    Belperpete Member

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    My first reaction, as a signal engineer reading that, was to think that they must have set the bar very low. If I had had a pass rate of anything like 50% for any of my production I would of hung my head in shame. But then I suppose it depends on how they measure it. If they have a particular test that is carried out multiple times, say it needs doing for every signal and 99 out of 100 signals pass, then I would consider that a 99% pass rate for that test. However, if they consider that test to have failed because of the one errant signal, then I suppose it could lead to a very low pass rate. "Lies, damn lies and statistics" as the saying goes: you can make the statistics work for you or against you depending on how you measure them.

    We were often asked to give percentage completion rates for writing code. This was measured by comparing the number of lines actually written compared with the number of lines estimated to be needed (of course you didn't know how many lines would actually be needed until it was finished). Of course, some data writers racked up higher percentages than others, because they spread their code over more lines! I had to massage the figures to avoid reporting percentages of over 100%. And we were for ever having to explain why the percentage seemed to stall at 90% or so for several weeks, as the last 10% tended to be the most complex, and required the most thought.
     
  9. jellybaby

    jellybaby Member

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    It's getting off topic for this thread but there is an Underground / TfL rail map which can help.

    http://content.tfl.gov.uk/toilets-map.pdf

    Crossrail should have toilets everywhere except Heathrow, Canary Wharf, Bond Street, Liverpool Street, Woolwich and Paddington. All of those have other facilities available (eg in the attached NR station).
     
  10. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    I assume they have a target MTIN figure for the 345s to have reached before they start running core services with them, given the much higher frequency of those services. Presumably the 345s have yet to meet those figures. I also assume that 7-car reliability figures are not relevant to those tests. I wonder what figure they deem satisfactory.
     
  11. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    Reading between the lines the target would appear to be around 15k but only 9-10k for this December with 7.5k currently (new software drops may see steps in this). However only surface running with 5A from December (if NR get there on the DOO camera installation or mitigation) so no need to get the MTIN up to 15k immediately and running units in service from December will help find the issues that can then be sorted.
     
  12. matt_world2004

    matt_world2004 Established Member

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    Plenty of spare units too
     
  13. Roast Veg

    Roast Veg Member

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    LOC is a pretty awful statistic for anything other than the age of a piece of software, and in a project manager role it wouldn't even cross my mind to report it - much better to work under Test Driven Development and accurately work to those. With regards to the 50% success rating on XC that's hardly surprising when working across interconnected hardware where any loose timing will make the whole thing fall apart, there will be niggles for a while until they can get the two very closely synchronised.
     
  14. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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  15. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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  16. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    The current plan to to have the Heathrow Branch working a minimum of 6 months before the Central operating section.

    The Jacobs report points at something related to the ETCS signaling being at fault. This could be either GSM-R signalling messages but the Jacobs also mentions an issue with train position. To determine position the train software needs to be sucessfully reading the Eurobalise in the Heathrow tunnels.

    If this is general issue the same Eurobalise technology is used in the COS so the train software needs to be reading them either way.

    Another mention in the report is that there is an issue with the platform screen doors. Alignment with the doors is also based on the train being able to read the Eurobalise correctly.

    OK, I admit ithis is pure spectulation as the relavant bits of the report are redacted but it looks that way to me.
     
  17. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    Sounds reasonable - I wonder if that has any relevance to the issues that prevented close-headway testing until recently?
     
  18. USBT

    USBT Member

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    And the Heathrow branch issue (345s unable to coexist with the existing HEX trains in the tunnels due to GW-ATP vs ETCS signaling incompatibility) is very different to the core.

    The solution is to replace the HEX stock with class 387s fitted with ETCS. If there’s a delay there that could be a delay in refurbishing/fitting ETCS to the 387s. Not that’s it’s not serious, just different. Indeed if the 387s aren’t ready by December the HEX stock won’t be able to vacate the Old Oak Common depot, which is scheduled for demolition.
     
  19. SamYeager

    SamYeager Member

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    I thought it had already been demolished?
     
  20. TFN

    TFN Member

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    Only the GWR depot was demolished. The Heathrow Express and ex-Heathrow Connect depot is scheduled for end of this year I believe.
     
  21. SamYeager

    SamYeager Member

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    Thanks for the clarification.
     
  22. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Today on the BBC News website details of a report from the Public Accounts Committee: London's Crossrail project will probably go even further over budget, according to a report by MPs.

    It seems to me that people in charge has a big incentive to hide the real state of the project so that they got their big bonus.
     
  23. bastien

    bastien Member

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    I wonder what the odds of Crossrail never opening - as currently advertised - are?

    (I'm talking WCML Pendolinos never hitting 140mph type compromises here.)
     
  24. Pshambro

    Pshambro Member

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    Do we know if the project was known to be behind schedule in the years they got their bonuses ? The videos I saw said "on time and on budget". Even if the schedule was deficient and unrealistic, unless this was known at the time, there is no reason to suspect foul play. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Especially on a project of this uniqueness and complexity.
     
  25. Mag_seven

    Mag_seven Established Member

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    Surly the people awarding the bonus would have checked if their targets had been met? I disagree with bonuses for meeting targets anyway. Bonuses should only be awarded if targets are exceeded!
     
  26. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    When you are in charge of the company you can cheat. For example it is alleged that they got a large bonus when the first train ran through the tunnels by a certain date so the tracks were laid in a temporary fashion with only every alternate sleeper installed. Later the whole track was taken up after the bonus was earned a put back again properly.
     
    Last edited: 19 Jul 2019
  27. bastien

    bastien Member

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    Indeed, and it's so common it has a name: Control Fraud.
     
  28. PR1Berske

    PR1Berske Established Member

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    It looks increasingly likely that what will open will be a diluted, reduced, and lacking version of Crossrail. In two or three years time, trains will run under London with far less fanfare as they would have done, and Londoners will be right to deplore the Farce they've had to endure to get there.
     
  29. civ-eng-jim

    civ-eng-jim Member

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    Could you be any more vague?

    What, specifically, will be different from the original proposal? What level of "fanfare" was envisaged for the running of trains when the project was conceived? (Out of interest, what are the SI units for fanfare?)
     
  30. matt_world2004

    matt_world2004 Established Member

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    Most of the compromises to crossrails design happened before 2017 l. There have only been enhancements to the original proposal since then.
     

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