Crossrail opening delayed until sometime between October 2020 and March 2021

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by gavin, 31 Aug 2018.

  1. bastien

    bastien Member

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    If I were a betting man my money would be on reduced frequency & increased journey times, 'cos the signalling doesn't work properly due to 'software issues'.
     
  2. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    It technically never will as I don't think the lack of through services from Shenfield beyond Paddington has been made public yet.
     
  3. matt_world2004

    matt_world2004 Established Member

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    At launch there was never planned to be a full timetabled frequency because the turn back at Westbourne park couldnt handle it. Only when the western branches ran tp the core was there going to be a full timetabled service.
     
  4. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    As per the second period Jacobs report, the current plan is:

    Stage 5A Paddington - Reading - Dec 2019
    Stage 2.2 Paddington - Heathrow - Mar 2020
    Stage 3 Paddington - Abbey Wood - Between Oct 2020 - Mar 2021
    Stage 4 Paddington - Abbey Wood & Shenfield (6 months after Stage 3)
    Stage 5B Reading & Heathrow - Abbey Wood (6 months after Stage 4)

    There is no mention in the Jacobs Report of Reading & Heathrow - Shenfield, but at that point there is no reason why it could not happen.
    They might possibly want to avoid it so that trains in the East don't risk being disrupted by problems in the West and vice versa.
     
    Last edited: 22 Aug 2019 at 12:32
  5. swt_passenger

    swt_passenger Veteran Member

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    The reasoning is that TfL have more recently published route maps showing explicitly that all the Shenfield services will originate at Paddington, and it is only the Abbey Wood branch services that will run to Heathrow, Maidenhead and Reading.

    IIRC services between all legs suddenly disappeared about when the extra peak Reading and Heathrow T5 services were first announced.
     
  6. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    They're the up to date dates? I thought the current plan was Oct 2020 - Mar 2021 for stage 3. Stage 2.2 I suppose hasn't really happened yet on 345s, but whether that matters for fulfilling the obligation I'm not sure.
     
  7. Bigbru

    Bigbru Member

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    Is stage 2.2 supposed to read March 2020
     
  8. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    virtually zero, it will deliver as advertised just very late
     
  9. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    Because the service pattern sees virtually all the GWML trains apart from few shoulder peak services go to Abbey Wood...
    Shenfield services terminate at Paddington and reverse in the Westbourne park sidings.

    See here in detail:
    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/crossrail-timetable-for-success/

    Are the right years after those months???
     
  10. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Yes sorry I'll update my post.
     
  11. ian1944

    ian1944 Member

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    Bransons
     
  12. RichardGore

    RichardGore Member

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    Energy spent shouting about something in proportion to the work done building it, which makes it unitless (joules per joule).
     
  13. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    I like it. Borrowing from another subject, perhaps that can go hand in hand with the SI unit of hype, the Molyneux.
     
  14. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    There is an interesting article on the London Reconnections website today which gives a short history of Crossrail 1 and ask how Crossrail 2 will fare in the light of events.

    Will government be inclined to support Crossrail 2 or have they convinced themselves that the Crossrail1 and HS2 projects show that the DfT is to incompetent to risk it?

     
    Last edited: 1 Aug 2019
  15. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    Depends which government is in power when the decision is made I think. I suspect a left-ish government (I'd say labour but who knows what will happen given the current political climate) would probably press ahead with it regardless, but the conservatives will certainly be having second thoughts after Crossrail 1 and I imagine it will likely be at the very least postponed, in so much as waiting to give the go ahead until after Crossrail 1 is actually up and running in its entirety, so probably 2022-2023 earliest when that decision will be made, hence a 2030 opening would not happen. 2035-2040 seems more realistic at this point assuming it isn't canned.
     
  16. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    The latest review at the Government behest suggests finalising for spending review starting in November...
     
  17. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

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    Conversely, there's a lot of Conservative MP's who's seats are in areas which would benefit from Crossrail 2 services or from the 8 paths out of Waterloo which would be released by building it.

    Add in a few hundred million extra (for improvements, such as more passing loops/redoubling, to the WofE line) and they could even add extra services to Exeter to the list of benefits (so as to not just be a London and South East project and as something to point to as investment in the South West whilst building HS2).

    Have a more fixed date for Northern Powerhouse Rail and a lot of the "why isn't the North getting more spending" argument would be more muted, especially if parts of it were due to open before Crossrail 2 (certainly the Western parts which use HS2 phase 2a infrastructure could be possible candidates for this).

    Scotland and Wales have devolved transport powers so it's up to them what other rail spending they have.

    As such there's the potential for Crossrail 2 to have an easier path through parliament and in the minds of the general population than otherwise would be the case (& it certainly needs it given the issues with Crossrail, however a few years of much higher than expected passenger use would ease things further).
     
  18. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Chris Grayling has released his Annual Update on Crossrail

    I wonder what Network Rail will not fund in CP6 as a result of the cost overrun?
     
  19. JonathanH

    JonathanH Established Member

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    The obvious project in the South of England not to fund is the work at Croydon.
     
  20. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    The cost overrun is already included in the additional funding announced later last summer after the 2018 Annual Update so is essentially reporting old news
     
  21. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Yes, there is nothing new here. I guess he might be clearing the deck on his last day.
     
  22. hwl

    hwl Established Member

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    The annual Crossrail update (mandated as part of the parliamentary approval) is always published in the early 20somethingth of July.
    Part of the thinking was that there had to be an easily digestible reporting / bad news capture to prevent burying bad news.
     
  23. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Well they certainly didn't try to hide it. It is published in three separate places on government websites. Though there might well be other things happening today to take MPs minds off this subject.
     
  24. Chris125

    Chris125 Established Member

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    More progress updates:





     
  25. RichardGore

    RichardGore Member

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    It’s great that they’re progressing, but how on earth did anyone ever think they would be ready in time for December 2018?
     
  26. Mikey C

    Mikey C Established Member

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    A massive failure of management/communication to not "fess up" much earlier.
     
  27. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    It is quite astounding! After watching these videos I re-read some of the reports to Mayor which have been posted on the London Assembly web site and they continue to be way too over optimistic right through until the last one on 19th December 2018. Some of what is said in the videos appears to repeat claims made early last year. I hope this time they are being more realistic.
     
  28. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Channel 5 on Saturday evening 8pm. (3rd August) New documentary about Crossrail and what went wrong.
     
  29. Searle

    Searle Established Member

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    Was it any good? Worth a watch on catch up (if one can bear the adverts)?
     
  30. RichardGore

    RichardGore Member

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    As far as I can tell 8pm on the 3rd of August is, at the time of writing, in the future.

    Leaks and/or mysterious time travel shenanigans notwithstanding it’s probably a little early to know whether the programme is worth watching.
     

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