Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

[HowardGWR]

Just now I referred to the Modern Railways correspondent. What he has also pointed out is that the class 345 has anything but sparkling reliability at present. It may be useful for TfL to attack this problem while they have the extra breathing space of this late delivery of the project.

 

[dosxuk]

While we're here, is there an update on Thameslink 2000's progress?

 

[Malcolmffc]

Just now I referred to the Modern Railways correspondent. What he has also pointed out is that the class 345 has anything but sparkling reliability at present. It may be useful for TfL to attack this problem while they have the extra breathing space of this late delivery of the project.

The appalling reliability of the 345s is likely one of the factors that has led to this postponement. Both the 315s and the 360s should have been long gone by now.

 

[hwl]

The appalling reliability of the 345s is likely one of the factors that has led to this postponement. Both the 315s and the 360s should have been long gone by now.

ex HC 360s is more an issue that ETCS in the Heathrow tunnels doesn't work while GW-ATP is turned on which is more than just a 345 issue. Worth noting ETCS fitment to GW 387s for HEx work so they can get rid of ATP.
the 9car 345s are also apparently already more reliable than the 7 car ones which should be no surprise given the 7 car 345s were meant to be withdrawn next May so all the focus has been on getting the 9 car (especially the software) working.

If the 315 were meant to be long gone why was their lease extended into 2020 several years ago?

 

[hwl]

Just now I referred to the Modern Railways correspondent. What he has also pointed out is that the class 345 has anything but sparkling reliability at present. It may be useful for TfL to attack this problem while they have the extra breathing space of this late delivery of the project.

As soon as an on board engineer and fitter go to inspect an issue you can guarantee it will take more than 3 minutes to resolve resulting in a technical incident compared to leaving it till it gets back to the siding /depot

 

[FOH]

Weren’t London Underground looking to tone down the Central line services following core opening, freeing up trains for major refurbishment? If so what’re the implications now?

 

[AlanFry1]

This could mean a bigger redevelopment over Christmas at LST next year, with the rumoured possibility of adding more platforms in between 10-11 and to the left of 1.

 

[NorthKent1989]

I'm not remotely annoyed by this decision, I appreciate TfL's honesty, id rather this much anticipated line be launched without any issues and of that means a ten month delay then by all.means do.so.

Unlike Thameslink which should have taken the same approach in truth considering its a much larger,.more intersecting network than Crossrail is,

 

[Taunton]

Do airliners not get tested and accumulate mileage before they get handed over ?

Have asked a colleague on the aviation side (to compare this with Class 345 and all other recent stock introduction).

He pointed to a recent Easyjet new Airbus airliner. Built at the Hamburg Factory, very advanced software. Very first flight at the factory on Friday 22 June. Fully tested, delivered over to Easyjet at their Luton airport HQ the following Tuesday, 26 June. Ran its first airline flight the NEXT DAY, Wednesday 27 June from Luton to Milan, so not even to a main base, from where it then operated about 6 flights a day ever since to and fro all around Europe, 6 am to midnight, without seemingly any major fault.

Surprised even me. 5 days from first test flight to passengers, including a weekend. Perhaps the Class 345 commissioning team would like to comment.

 

[samuelmorris]

Weren’t London Underground looking to tone down the Central line services following core opening, freeing up trains for major refurbishment? If so what’re the implications now?

Between this and the (in my opinion a bit premature) imminent DLR fleet replacement, I imagine budget constraints will probably push 92TS replacements into the 2030s, so there is plenty of time to carry out that refurbishment, even if it takes until well after Crossrail opens to complete.

 

[route101]

What are happening to the HC class 360s?

 

[Agent_Squash]

Have asked a colleague on the aviation side (to compare this with Class 345 and all other recent stock introduction).

He pointed to a recent Easyjet new Airbus airliner. Built at the Hamburg Factory, very advanced software. Very first flight at the factory on Friday 22 June. Fully tested, delivered over to Easyjet at their Luton airport HQ the following Tuesday, 26 June. Ran its first airline flight the NEXT DAY, Wednesday 27 June from Luton to Milan, so not even to a main base, from where it then operated about 6 flights a day ever since to and fro all around Europe, 6 am to midnight, without seemingly any major fault.

Surprised even me. 5 days from first test flight to passengers, including a weekend. Perhaps the Class 345 commissioning team would like to comment.

Milan is quite a big operation for easyJet - certainly a lot from Malpensa.

Definitely agree that once initial testing for a class is finished, there's no reason why aviation timescales (which are in a much more safety focused environment) can be met.

 

[c2c]

Have asked a colleague on the aviation side (to compare this with Class 345 and all other recent stock introduction).

He pointed to a recent Easyjet new Airbus airliner. Built at the Hamburg Factory, very advanced software. Very first flight at the factory on Friday 22 June. Fully tested, delivered over to Easyjet at their Luton airport HQ the following Tuesday, 26 June. Ran its first airline flight the NEXT DAY, Wednesday 27 June from Luton to Milan, so not even to a main base, from where it then operated about 6 flights a day ever since to and fro all around Europe, 6 am to midnight, without seemingly any major fault.

Surprised even me. 5 days from first test flight to passengers, including a weekend. Perhaps the Class 345 commissioning team would like to comment.

Yes but the A320neo had its first test flight 4 years ago:
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/pre...0neo-successfully-completes-first-flight.html

And its first delivery was not until 2 years later:
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/pre...ery-opens-new-era-in-commercial-aviation.html

My point is now only after over 300 deliveries the commissioning process runs smoothly as I'm sure it will for Class 345s after 50 or so.

 

[TheManWho]

Between this and the (in my opinion a bit premature) imminent DLR fleet replacement, I imagine budget constraints will probably push 92TS replacements into the 2030s, so there is plenty of time to carry out that refurbishment, even if it takes until well after Crossrail opens to complete.

It's only the B92 stock that is being replaced- the B07s will be around for a while yet. The oldest B92s are almost 28 years old and are really starting to show their age

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Have asked a colleague on the aviation side (to compare this with Class 345 and all other recent stock introduction).

He pointed to a recent Easyjet new Airbus airliner. Built at the Hamburg Factory, very advanced software. Very first flight at the factory on Friday 22 June. Fully tested, delivered over to Easyjet at their Luton airport HQ the following Tuesday, 26 June. Ran its first airline flight the NEXT DAY, Wednesday 27 June from Luton to Milan, so not even to a main base, from where it then operated about 6 flights a day ever since to and fro all around Europe, 6 am to midnight, without seemingly any major fault.

Surprised even me. 5 days from first test flight to passengers, including a weekend. Perhaps the Class 345 commissioning team would like to comment.

Was this a brand new design of airline specially built for EasyJet, and with that design having never been in public service before, or was it a standard Airbus, just like lots of others that were already in service, with perhaps just a few customizations for EasyJet?

 

[samuelmorris]

It's only the B92 stock that is being replaced- the B07s will be around for a while yet. The oldest B92s are almost 28 years old and are really starting to show their age

I was under the impression the B90s and B2Ks were going as well, which means 63% of them. Alright, not the whole fleet, but the majority of it. I'm not sure I see the 'showing their age' comment when riding them. When compared to the 72TS or 92TS? Hardly. Perhaps someone that maintains them would take a different view. Don't get me wrong, A/C on the DLR would be welcome but compared to some of TfL's other routes, I remain to be convinced it's where money currently needs to be spent most urgently.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Guardian article about the delay makes a couple of interesting claims, and I'm wondering what people her make of them:

Firstly, it quotes Lord Adonis as claiming that Crossrail won't actually open until 2020.

Lord Adonis said the full scale of the problems had yet to emerge, with the industry talking of major issues with signalling systems, and predicted the opening could now be delayed until 2020.

Secondly it suggests that the delay will hit TfL finances:

London politicians called for an inquiry. The Conservative assembly member Keith Prince said the mayor had no contingency plan, despite warnings. He said: “Sadiq Khan’s financial plans were hugely reliant on Crossrail opening on time, on budget and meeting incredibly optimistic passenger targets.”

Unions were equivocal, with jobs now extending on Crossrail for another year, However, the TSSA general secretary, Manuel Cortes, admitted it was “hard to see the mayor will be able to make ends meet” and called for the Commons and assembly’s transport committees to hold hearings.

This latter claim puzzles me because I would have expected that most Crossrail revenue, especially during the first few years, would be from passengers swapping from other parallel routes, such as the Central line - that would be roughly revenue-neutral to TfL. Some would transfer from SouthEastern, which would presumably hit SouthEastern's revenue to the benefit of TfL, but I can't imagine that making a significant difference on the scale of TfL's budge.

 

[TheManWho]

I was under the impression the B90s and B2Ks were going as well, which means 63% of them. Alright, not the whole fleet, but the majority of it. I'm not sure I see the 'showing their age' comment when riding them. When compared to the 72TS or 92TS? Hardly. Perhaps someone that maintains them would take a different view. Don't get me wrong, A/C on the DLR would be welcome but compared to some of TfL's other routes, I remain to be convinced it's where money currently needs to be spent most urgently.

The B2Ks are grouped as part of the B92s as they're basically the same in terms of operation, technology and components.

 

[samuelmorris]

Fair enough, I can't say I'd noticed - I'd ask for more information but that belongs in its own thread. Not sure if there's one already, I'll have a look, otherwise I may start one, not that there's much more info in the public domain yet that I know of.

 

[bramling]

Between this and the (in my opinion a bit premature) imminent DLR fleet replacement, I imagine budget constraints will probably push 92TS replacements into the 2030s, so there is plenty of time to carry out that refurbishment, even if it takes until well after Crossrail opens to complete.

The 92 stock is having investment regardless of what happens with replacement. As a minimum they will have retractioning, accessibility enhancements and various other works necessary to keep them going for the now.

I would imagine that the timing of their eventual replacement will depend upon how successful this work proves in reality.

DLR fleet replacement is a separate issue. The main issue with the B90/92 stock is unreliability, although I can’t claim to know what the underlying issues are. They are approaching 30 years old which is quite old in light rail terms.

 

[Busaholic]

The Guardian article about the delay makes a couple of interesting claims, and I'm wondering what people her make of them:

Firstly, it quotes Lord Adonis as claiming that Crossrail won't actually open until 2020.



Secondly it suggests that the delay will hit TfL finances:



This latter claim puzzles me because I would have expected that most Crossrail revenue, especially during the first few years, would be from passengers swapping from other parallel routes, such as the Central line - that would be roughly revenue-neutral to TfL. Some would transfer from SouthEastern, which would presumably hit SouthEastern's revenue to the benefit of TfL, but I can't imagine that making a significant difference on the scale of TfL's budge.

I've a gut feeling that signalling lies at the heart of this really, just as with the Jubilee extension. That explosion that occurred near Stratford a few months ago when a big switch-on was supposed to take place has never been satisfactorily explained either. To me, the silence spoke volumes.

 

[Bucephalus]

The appalling reliability of the 345s is likely one of the factors that has led to this postponement. Both the 315s and the 360s should have been long gone by now.

Stick a bunch of pacers in there and have done with I say.. stick a pantograph somewhere on top just for show. Sorted

 

[Dren Ahmeti]

I've a gut feeling that signalling lies at the heart of this really, just as with the Jubilee extension. That explosion that occurred near Stratford a few months ago when a big switch-on was supposed to take place has never been satisfactorily explained either. To me, the silence spoke volumes.

Another substation went boom at Royal Oak(?) when someone forgot to unplug Network Rail’s electricity from a switch and caused a fairly big bang that set the whole project very far behind, speculation at the time put it at 6 months until a replacement was found.

 

[JN114]

What are happening to the HC class 360s?

I suspect they’ll be offered up for sale to the ROSCOs (they’re owned by Heathrow Airport, and currently leased to TfL). With a glut of other EMUs idle either due or on their books already however it remains to be seen whether any of the like of Porterbrook, Angel etc will be interested.

They’ll more than likely have to leave Heathrow ownership before deployment elsewhere is even considered.

 

[pacenotes]

I've been traveling on the western section for 18 months now and except for the platforms being made a bit longer nothing has changed at the stations.

West Drayton, Hayes and Eailing Broadway are all to have new stations, All should of been completed by 2018. It seems like nothing has been done in years.

 

[si404]

Firstly, it quotes Lord Adonis as claiming that Crossrail won't actually open until 2020.

Surely more-Andrew-than- is just a talking head with a big axe to grind (I'm surprised it took until the second question before bringing up his hobby horse ranting subject), these days? It's like, having left the tent with a rather full bladder, he didn't leave to go over to a bush, but left so that he won't be thrown out of the tent as he empties his bladder into it.

This latter claim puzzles me because I would have expected that most Crossrail revenue, especially during the first few years, would be from passengers swapping from other parallel routes, such as the Central line - that would be roughly revenue-neutral to TfL. Some would transfer from SouthEastern, which would presumably hit SouthEastern's revenue to the benefit of TfL, but I can't imagine that making a significant difference on the scale of TfL's budge.

1. new stations (especially West Drayton westwards) = new revenue
2. more people travelling from those stations due to better services and development = more revenue from existing sources
3. transfers

• from non-TfL lines (eg c2c, which I gather sees City commuters from Ilford who struggle to get on and so head south to Barking) = existing revenue taken from other operators
• from TfL lines (eg the large number of people who use Northfields and then head north towards West Ealing), the latter freeing up capacity on existing lines and allowing more people to use them, meaning more people will - especially from Stratford, where the line is over saturated = similar revenue from existing sources, but all Liz revenue becomes additional rather than poaching off other lines.

The money was only going to properly kick in in 2020 anyway, and I suspect that the Reading services will be transferred in the Dec 19 timetable change as planned, even if they don't run through. So the prime funding source will still be there, though obviously won't reach its potential until connected to the core.

 

[Hadders]

Surely Crossrail will get revenue from people transferring from Heathrow Express, and people using Crossrail rather than the Piccadilly Line which will be more expensive.

 

[LeeLivery]

I haven't been along the Great Western in years. Last time I went along there, the electrification hadn't passed Airport Jun.

When are the station rebuilds expected to be complete?

I'm far more familiar with the Great Eastern - I was surprised a couple months back that refurbs seemingly still haven't started. Any change on that?

 

[SamYeager]

Have asked a colleague on the aviation side (to compare this with Class 345 and all other recent stock introduction).

He pointed to a recent Easyjet new Airbus airliner. Built at the Hamburg Factory, very advanced software. Very first flight at the factory on Friday 22 June. Fully tested, delivered over to Easyjet at their Luton airport HQ the following Tuesday, 26 June. Ran its first airline flight the NEXT DAY, Wednesday 27 June from Luton to Milan, so not even to a main base, from where it then operated about 6 flights a day ever since to and fro all around Europe, 6 am to midnight, without seemingly any major fault.

Surprised even me. 5 days from first test flight to passengers, including a weekend. Perhaps the Class 345 commissioning team would like to comment.

That's for an updated version of a plane that Easyjet already flies. I doubt that the differences course is more than a day per pilot and a few hours for cabin staff. If the plane itself was new to Easyjet then it's far more likely that the first few planes would have carried out a four to six weeks of familiarisation flights from their main maintenance base for pilots, cabin staff and maintenance staff before venturing overseas.

 

[hwl]

I've been traveling on the western section for 18 months now and except for the platforms being made a bit longer nothing has changed at the stations.

West Drayton, Hayes and Eailing Broadway are all to have new stations, All should of been completed by 2018. It seems like nothing has been done in years.

The stations design were ripped up after step free access was agreed, there was no funding for step free and then Carillion won the contracts and went bust after not doing too much so retendering at a much higher cost...