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Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

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bastien

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Could you be any more vague?

What, specifically, will be different from the original proposal? What level of "fanfare" was envisaged for the running of trains when the project was conceived? (Out of interest, what are the SI units for fanfare?)
If I were a betting man my money would be on reduced frequency & increased journey times, 'cos the signalling doesn't work properly due to 'software issues'.
 
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samuelmorris

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I wonder what the odds of Crossrail never opening - as currently advertised - are?

(I'm talking WCML Pendolinos never hitting 140mph type compromises here.)
It technically never will as I don't think the lack of through services from Shenfield beyond Paddington has been made public yet.
 

matt_world2004

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If I were a betting man my money would be on reduced frequency & increased journey times, 'cos the signalling doesn't work properly due to 'software issues'.
At launch there was never planned to be a full timetabled frequency because the turn back at Westbourne park couldnt handle it. Only when the western branches ran tp the core was there going to be a full timetabled service.
 

kevin_roche

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As per the second period Jacobs report, the current plan is:

Stage 5A Paddington - Reading - Dec 2019
Stage 2.2 Paddington - Heathrow - Mar 2020
Stage 3 Paddington - Abbey Wood - Between Oct 2020 - Mar 2021
Stage 4 Paddington - Abbey Wood & Shenfield (6 months after Stage 3)
Stage 5B Reading & Heathrow - Abbey Wood (6 months after Stage 4)

It technically never will as I don't think the lack of through services from Shenfield beyond Paddington has been made public yet.
There is no mention in the Jacobs Report of Reading & Heathrow - Shenfield, but at that point there is no reason why it could not happen.
They might possibly want to avoid it so that trains in the East don't risk being disrupted by problems in the West and vice versa.
 
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swt_passenger

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As per the second period Jacobs report, the current plan is:

Stage 5A Paddington - Reading - Dec 2019
Stage 2.2 Paddington - Heathrow - Mar 2019
Stage 3 Paddington - Abbey Wood - Between Oct 2019 - Mar 2020
Stage 4 Paddington - Abbey Wood & Shenfield (6 months after Stage 3)
Stage 5B Reading & Heathrow - Abbey Wood (6 months after Stage 4)


There is no mention in the Jacobs Report of Reading & Heathrow - Shenfield, but at that point there is no reason why it could not happen.
The reasoning is that TfL have more recently published route maps showing explicitly that all the Shenfield services will originate at Paddington, and it is only the Abbey Wood branch services that will run to Heathrow, Maidenhead and Reading.

IIRC services between all legs suddenly disappeared about when the extra peak Reading and Heathrow T5 services were first announced.
 

samuelmorris

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As per the second period Jacobs report, the current plan is:

Stage 5A Paddington - Reading - Dec 2019
Stage 2.2 Paddington - Heathrow - Mar 2019
Stage 3 Paddington - Abbey Wood - Between Oct 2019 - Mar 2020
Stage 4 Paddington - Abbey Wood & Shenfield (6 months after Stage 3)
Stage 5B Reading & Heathrow - Abbey Wood (6 months after Stage 4)


There is no mention in the Jacobs Report of Reading & Heathrow - Shenfield, but at that point there is no reason why it could not happen.
They might possibly want to avoid it so that trains in the East don't risk being disrupted by problems in the West and vice versa.
They're the up to date dates? I thought the current plan was Oct 2020 - Mar 2021 for stage 3. Stage 2.2 I suppose hasn't really happened yet on 345s, but whether that matters for fulfilling the obligation I'm not sure.
 

Bigbru

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They're the up to date dates? I thought the current plan was Oct 2020 - Mar 2021 for stage 3. Stage 2.2 I suppose hasn't really happened yet on 345s, but whether that matters for fulfilling the obligation I'm not sure.

Is stage 2.2 supposed to read March 2020
 

hwl

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I wonder what the odds of Crossrail never opening - as currently advertised - are?

(I'm talking WCML Pendolinos never hitting 140mph type compromises here.)
virtually zero, it will deliver as advertised just very late
 

hwl

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As per the second period Jacobs report, the current plan is:

Stage 5A Paddington - Reading - Dec 2019
Stage 2.2 Paddington - Heathrow - Mar 2019
Stage 3 Paddington - Abbey Wood - Between Oct 2019 - Mar 2020
Stage 4 Paddington - Abbey Wood & Shenfield (6 months after Stage 3)
Stage 5B Reading & Heathrow - Abbey Wood (6 months after Stage 4)


There is no mention in the Jacobs Report of Reading & Heathrow - Shenfield, but at that point there is no reason why it could not happen.
They might possibly want to avoid it so that trains in the East don't risk being disrupted by problems in the West and vice versa.

Because the service pattern sees virtually all the GWML trains apart from few shoulder peak services go to Abbey Wood...
Shenfield services terminate at Paddington and reverse in the Westbourne park sidings.

See here in detail:
https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/crossrail-timetable-for-success/

Are the right years after those months???
 

kevin_roche

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There is an interesting article on the London Reconnections website today which gives a short history of Crossrail 1 and ask how Crossrail 2 will fare in the light of events.

Will government be inclined to support Crossrail 2 or have they convinced themselves that the Crossrail1 and HS2 projects show that the DfT is to incompetent to risk it?

If Crossrail 1 is currently symbolised by ‘not on time, not on budget’, then how much does this tarnish, delay or otherwise impede progress with further rail schemes, particularly Crossrail 2? What other lions and elephant traps lie in the path of CR2? Does that scheme actually have a pathway? Is its current context happier than some navigational cairns on a inter-stellar journey to Planet Treasury? These articles aim to describe such matters.
 
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samuelmorris

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There is an interesting article on the London Reconnections website today which gives a short history of Crossrail 1 and ask how Crossrail 2 will fare in the light of events.

Will government be inclined to support Crossrail 2 or have they convinced themselves that the Crossrail1 and HS2 projects show that the DfT is to incompetent to risk it?
Depends which government is in power when the decision is made I think. I suspect a left-ish government (I'd say labour but who knows what will happen given the current political climate) would probably press ahead with it regardless, but the conservatives will certainly be having second thoughts after Crossrail 1 and I imagine it will likely be at the very least postponed, in so much as waiting to give the go ahead until after Crossrail 1 is actually up and running in its entirety, so probably 2022-2023 earliest when that decision will be made, hence a 2030 opening would not happen. 2035-2040 seems more realistic at this point assuming it isn't canned.
 

hwl

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There is an interesting article on the London Reconnections website today which gives a short history of Crossrail 1 and ask how Crossrail 2 will fare in the light of events.

Will government be inclined to support Crossrail 2 or have they convinced themselves that the Crossrail1 and HS2 projects show that the DfT is to incompetent to risk it?
The latest review at the Government behest suggests finalising for spending review starting in November...
 

The Ham

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Depends which government is in power when the decision is made I think. I suspect a left-ish government (I'd say labour but who knows what will happen given the current political climate) would probably press ahead with it regardless, but the conservatives will certainly be having second thoughts after Crossrail 1 and I imagine it will likely be at the very least postponed, in so much as waiting to give the go ahead until after Crossrail 1 is actually up and running in its entirety, so probably 2022-2023 earliest when that decision will be made, hence a 2030 opening would not happen. 2035-2040 seems more realistic at this point assuming it isn't canned.

Conversely, there's a lot of Conservative MP's who's seats are in areas which would benefit from Crossrail 2 services or from the 8 paths out of Waterloo which would be released by building it.

Add in a few hundred million extra (for improvements, such as more passing loops/redoubling, to the WofE line) and they could even add extra services to Exeter to the list of benefits (so as to not just be a London and South East project and as something to point to as investment in the South West whilst building HS2).

Have a more fixed date for Northern Powerhouse Rail and a lot of the "why isn't the North getting more spending" argument would be more muted, especially if parts of it were due to open before Crossrail 2 (certainly the Western parts which use HS2 phase 2a infrastructure could be possible candidates for this).

Scotland and Wales have devolved transport powers so it's up to them what other rail spending they have.

As such there's the potential for Crossrail 2 to have an easier path through parliament and in the minds of the general population than otherwise would be the case (& it certainly needs it given the issues with Crossrail, however a few years of much higher than expected passenger use would ease things further).
 

kevin_roche

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Chris Grayling has released his Annual Update on Crossrail

Updated costings for Network Rail’s programme show that the costs are now forecast at around £2.8 billion. The additional costs are the result of some work taking longer than planned and have been managed by Network Rail from within its own internal budgets. No further funding has been provided from Government, and this has not had an impact on any other programmes.

Further details on Crossrail Limited’s funding and finances in the period to 29 May 2019 are set out in the table below....

Total funding amounts provided to Crossrail Limited by the Department for Transport and TfL in relation to the construction of Crossrail to the end of the period (22 July 2008 to 29 May 2019) £13,165,913,790

Expenditure incurred (including committed land and property spend not yet paid out) by Crossrail Limited in relation to the construction of Crossrail in the period (30 May 2018 to 29 May 2019) (excluding recoverable VAT on Land and Property purchases) £1,481,243,170

Total expenditure incurred (including committed land and property spend not yet paid out) by Crossrail Limited in relation to the construction of Crossrail to the end of the period (22 July 2008 to 29 May 2019) (excluding recoverable VAT on Land and Property purchases) £13,958,459,007

The amounts realised by the disposal of any land or property for the purposes of the construction of Crossrail by the Secretary of State, TfL or Crossrail Limited in the period covered by the statement. £143,778,674

I wonder what Network Rail will not fund in CP6 as a result of the cost overrun?
 

kevin_roche

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The cost overrun is already included in the additional funding announced later last summer after the 2018 Annual Update so is essentially reporting old news

Yes, there is nothing new here. I guess he might be clearing the deck on his last day.
 

hwl

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Yes, there is nothing new here. I guess he might be clearing the deck on his last day.
The annual Crossrail update (mandated as part of the parliamentary approval) is always published in the early 20somethingth of July.
Part of the thinking was that there had to be an easily digestible reporting / bad news capture to prevent burying bad news.
 

kevin_roche

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Part of the thinking was that there had to be an easily digestible reporting / bad news capture to prevent burying bad news.

Well they certainly didn't try to hide it. It is published in three separate places on government websites. Though there might well be other things happening today to take MPs minds off this subject.
 

RichardGore

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It’s great that they’re progressing, but how on earth did anyone ever think they would be ready in time for December 2018?
 

Mikey C

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It’s great that they’re progressing, but how on earth did anyone ever think they would be ready in time for December 2018?

A massive failure of management/communication to not "fess up" much earlier.
 

kevin_roche

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It’s great that they’re progressing, but how on earth did anyone ever think they would be ready in time for December 2018?

It is quite astounding! After watching these videos I re-read some of the reports to Mayor which have been posted on the London Assembly web site and they continue to be way too over optimistic right through until the last one on 19th December 2018. Some of what is said in the videos appears to repeat claims made early last year. I hope this time they are being more realistic.
 

kevin_roche

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Channel 5 on Saturday evening 8pm. (3rd August) New documentary about Crossrail and what went wrong.
 

RichardGore

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As far as I can tell 8pm on the 3rd of August is, at the time of writing, in the future.

Leaks and/or mysterious time travel shenanigans notwithstanding it’s probably a little early to know whether the programme is worth watching.
 
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