Crossrail opening delayed until sometime in 2021

Discussion in 'UK Railway Discussion' started by gavin, 31 Aug 2018.

  1. Class 170101

    Class 170101 Established Member

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    Jubilee Line will be a starter train at Stratford in the morning as where as the Crossrail trains coming from the west heading east will be busy already (at Whitechapel). The same reason as I noted above why The Liverpool Street High Level Starters will be busy in the evening peak with people thinking they can get a seat or a bigger piece of personal space.

    In the evening one might head west to Whitechapel on emptyish arrivals from Abbey Wood before joining the crowded trains at Whitechapel to head east but given that there will be more trains at Stratford to choose from to head east compared to Whitechapel I can't see much pressure relief for the Jubilee Line to be honest in either peak.
     
  2. Chris M

    Chris M Member

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    It will in part depend on where in the CW area people are travelling to - the south side of the main estate axis the Jubilee line will continue to win I think, north of that Crossrail will be preferred while those to the west, or heading towards Lewisham will continue to prefer the DLR.
     
  3. ijmad

    ijmad Established Member

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    The Jubilee Line beyond Canary Wharf in the mornings is pretty quiet a the moment so I suspect it'll cope with the extra flows.

    Personally I want to see what happens to Canada Water - it's regularly suffering from dangerous levels of overcrowding in the morning peaks now, to the extent that some Northbound Overgrounds are skipping it, and announcements are being made about avoiding it. A huge number of passengers alighting at CW just want to go one stop east to Canary Wharf. However it seems very unlikely we'll see many passengers willing to stay on the Overground to Whitechapel, unless their offices are much nearer the Crossrail station than the Jubilee. The Lizzie line should capture anyone from the southeastern Overground branches who wants to commute up to the Olympic Park, but there aren't that many of us. I suppose it will take some passengers off the Jubilee Line from central London so there is some hope for extra space on the trains.

    Interestingly I note there will be three different direct routes from Bond Street to Stratford when we add in the Elizabeth Line. A good future pub quiz question as excluding the shared sections between the Met/H&C/Circle that doesn't happen anywhere else I don't think!
     
  4. greatkingrat

    greatkingrat Established Member

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    Euston - Stockwell? Only two lines but essentially three seperate routes if you count via CX and via Bank as separate.
     
  5. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    Are you suggestion you run extra peak train from Shenfield and to Abbey Wood in the mornings and vice versa in the evenings, but not in the opposite directions? I don't think that will work very well - unless you are able to teleport trains to Shenfield once they've reached Abbey Wood ;)
     
  6. TommyL4

    TommyL4 Member

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    In the long run, indeed. But for like an hour or so, sticking to asymmetrical service patterns is feasible as long as some extra stabling space exists on both ends, and the service can be then gradually adjusted during the off-peak period.
     
  7. si404

    si404 Member

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    I did specifically point out that issue before I'd even described that proposal.

    Ideally you'd just up each branch by 4tph each way, which gives the same service levels on the branches but doesn't trap stock, though this would be the obvious intermediate stage if they get the line up to 28tph but not 32tph - put the extra trains where they'd be most used.
    Indeed. You could probably do it for an hour and a half (depending on how much space there is at Plumstead sidings), which would be enough.

    It would be relatively expensive in trains (one for each service), but people seem OK for there to be 3 or 4 trains used to provide the 4tph peak-direction-only Liverpool St High Level service, a service that quite a bit less than half the benefit.
     
  8. si404

    si404 Member

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    Sure, but 3 minutes standing on a busy train is tolerable - you'll be walking through crowds at cramped Stratford for that long. If you have a seat on the Liz, you'd probably stay on and use Whitechapel. It's about 5 minutes less on the train.

    There's all sorts of different things, but I can see the via Whitechapel route being quite popular.
    At the very least, via Whitechapel is something people will consider, and some will choose to use it instead of the Jubilee. Extra flows isn't what we're talking about really - it's whether a reduction will happen or not.
    Except these trains aren't busy now in the evening peak, with people preferring to stand on the rammed Central line and change cross-platform onto TfL Rail and perhaps stand until they are further out of London.
     
  9. jellybaby

    jellybaby Member

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    Seasons tickets are very different.

    Chadwell Heath to Liverpool Street is £1792. A zone 1-5 travelcard is £2468. Worth walking a stop or two for a lot of people.
     
  10. Taunton

    Taunton Established Member

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    Most certainly not on the westbound - it's common to be unable to get in for multiple trains at Canning Town, and worse at North Greenwich.

    The opposite direction in the evenings suffers from the reversal of about 1 in 4 at North Greenwich, leading to gross overcrowding on the next Stratford service and inability to get in at Canary Wharf, where there is what must be the best self-managed queueing at each door on the whole Underground. Unfortunately those in a North Greenwich train, which is sometimes advised en-route, are told to change at Canary Wharf for the following service, to do so on the same platform - whereupon they find they are joining a queue that will take a couple of trains to get them back to the front.

    Crossrail can't come too soon to overcome all this. Unfortunately the huge Canary Wharf expansion at Wood Wharf, now reaching completion, with much of both commercial and residential already leased, was wholly predicated in its planning approvals on Crossrail providing more access, which is now not going to happen in time. Wood Wharf - finished right on time. Crossrail - not. The fibs perpetrated by the Crossrail team about on time completion until the last second are particularly aggravating to those who had committed to here. I wouldn't be surprised if eventually there is legal action over it.

    Regarding the local service on the GEML, now TfL Rail, back in the 1960s with the larger 9-car 306 units, there were three trains per 10 minutes in the peak, with some clever skip-stopping which speeded journeys. Now, 50 years on, there are to be only two trains per 10 minutes all stopping everywhere. What a step back.
     
    Last edited: 12 Jan 2020
  11. Horizon22

    Horizon22 Member

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    As mentioned this really isn't the case although I presume you are actually talking about different directions.

    It is interesting to see this even in the off-peak on a LO service when half the train can spill out here trying to join an already busy eastbound Jubilee train. It's surprising / fascinating to see how well a station built brand new only 20 years now seems woefully under capacity. Southern services on the ELL to London Bridge are significantly quieter. I think recently there was also some uprorar as it's got political and a new development is planned around the area. As you say I doubt people are going to go several stops up to Whitechapel if they want to go East, but perhaps if they do West.

    Much like the vast numbers of people who have moved to new developments in Abbey Wood / Woolwich and are trundling in on already overcrowded SE services for a couple of years longer than they expected. In fact they've had a double whammy with the SE franchise delay and any new metro stock delayed.
     
  12. Class 170101

    Class 170101 Established Member

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    Except for this reason I think Liverpool Street starters will be busy they don't all use the Central Line or will divert to Crossrail. Some walk due to cost difference and to be honest walking to some of the surrounding areas its quicker to walk than use the tube. Others use the Circle and would probably prefer a starter than an already crowded train coming from Farringdon, Tottenham Court Road and Bond Street.
     
  13. PG

    PG Member

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    Does make you wonder that if the planning authorities had been aware earlier of the delay to Crossrail, if they would have been able to prevent lettings or occupation of premises at Wood Wharf?
     
  14. Taunton

    Taunton Established Member

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    There's no ability or powers for a planning authority (in this case jointly Tower Hamlets and The Mayor) to vary planning conditions retrospectively like this. Once the permission was given Canary Wharf Group, who own the whole thing, would have entered into all sorts of legal contracts to build and lease it.

    CWG, of course, were also the partners with building the Crossrail station, and would have had LADs (construction compensation damages) in the contract against CWG not completing their part on time and delaying the Crossrail project. There would have been something in there as well about Crossrail keeping their side of the bargain. LADs work both ways. Incidentally, it's understood the current attitude at the Wharf is "never trust TfL again".
     
  15. si404

    si404 Member

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    But as TfL Rail aren't busy now on the relevant section, why would the residual services become busy there when the destinations they serve also have direct services straight to/from the Crossrail core?
    Is there a Chadwell Heath - Z1&2 season ticket? Jumping from a specific point to point to a zonal season is always going to mean a big uplift in prices - because it also means a big uplift in validity.

    If the commute is going to be all you use it for (with other journeys rare) then it's absolutely worth walking a bit to avoid the extra cost, but "a lot of people" isn't that large a proportion currently using TfL Rail. And nothing is going to change that will tip more people towards going into Liverpool St terminus. I guess the reduced number of services to Liverpool Street HL might increase loadings per train, but they'd also put people off (being the bare minimum TUAG rate), lowering total take up.

    I guess a lot depends on ticket validity - if the NR route via Whitechapel between Chadwell Heath and Liverpool Street is allowed on point-to-point seasons that would be very different to if it isn't wrt loadings on the residual services into Liverpool St terminus (if it is, then those saving money with a Liverpool St only ticket can board any train, rather than wait for the specific ones). If it isn't, any off-peak/counter-peak travel would require a change at Stratford, which would be annoying! (incidentally, will Liverpool St be a valid London Terminal for services routed via Abbey Wood? I'd imagine that Paddington LL would be for services on the GWML).
     
  16. Class 170101

    Class 170101 Established Member

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    The residual services will be busy as there are fewer of them than there are now (16tph vs 4/6tph). Now some people that may walk towards Barbician may be persuaded to use Crossrail throughout but I doubt it will be all.
     
  17. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    I'd consider trying it as an experiment, but bear in mind changing to the jubilee at Stratford means you can leave it an extra 2 minutes and board an empty train for a seat. Joining the Elizabeth line at Whitechapel in the morning will likely be heaving - better perhaps to do it the other way round, use the jubilee from Stratford in the morning, then the Elizabeth via Whitechapel in the evening.
     
  18. si404

    si404 Member

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    True, but if you have a seat on the Liz already, it's only 3 minutes standing on the next train (which will be less busy than the one you get off of). You'll probably be walking in the crush at Stratford for nearly that long.

    And obviously if you'd happily wait 2 minutes for a seat, then you wouldn't care that the Jubilee will take longer than going via Whitechapel.
     
  19. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    Indeed, certainly for me coming from Brentwood I would bias my journeys to use Crossrail as far as possible before changing as I can reliably get a seat AM. PM seat loading remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised if it remains the case that it gets busier as you go further East until after Stratford.

    On the other hand, for me it's also sometimes quicker to use GA services (which are already quieter than TfL even before their new fleet is introduced) and turn back at Shenfield. The increased frequency of stopping services only makes that more attractive as there is no longer the risk of a 10 minute wait at Shenfield negating the benefit if you time it wrong.
     
  20. Steddenm

    Steddenm Member

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    Was on a Slough to Pad TfL service the other day and the announcements welcomed you aboard the "Elizabeth Line service". Thought that was a bit odd. Another passenger said this was common on some trains.
     
  21. matt_world2004

    matt_world2004 Established Member

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    Someone's programmed the pis wrong as there are recordings stating TfL rail.
     
  22. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    Yes we have the TfL Rail ones this side, even if they are shoddily recorded.
     
  23. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    The latest update on the delivery of Crossrail was given by Mark Wild to the TfL Board yesterday. I thought the verbal report by Mark Wild was quite positive and I have already added links to the recording of the meeting on the Class 345 progress thread.

    A couple of other websites have also highlighted other aspects, Building notes the statements from Mark Wild about the amount of work still to be completed in integration of the various part of the system.
    It seems strange to me that anyone is surprised by this. Every time you connect two things from different manufacturers that is always the unknown thing. It could work straight away or take weeks to debug.

    New Civil Engineer is more positive and says:
    I think they must have that wrong. I thought Trial Running was 9 to 12 months and Trial Operations was a much shorter time.
     
  24. daikilo

    daikilo Established Member

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    In the industry I previously worked in, we spent £millions breaking down problems into manageable packages then, where there remained a real risk, doing simulations either in reduced scale or full. If this was not done then I agree that unpredicted "bugs" or even incompatibilities will occur. In my opinion it is inadmissible for an £18B project and will be likewise for HS2. And, it is almost never too late to risk manage.
     
  25. Snow1964

    Snow1964 Member

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    There is a YouTube video issued last week, where it refers to the trial running as a 16 train per hour service starting in the Autumn

    So it seems term is being used for a full test service operating, trial operations must therefore be using a crowd of people to represent passengers

    I would guess the trial Operations is test people given specific tasks (everything from falling on escalators to getting bags caught in doors etc) to see how the staff react.
     
  26. kevin_roche

    kevin_roche Member

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    Thanks I'll watch the video again when I get chance this evening.
     
  27. D365

    D365 Established Member

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    What are the odds on Crossrail becoming a "British" Berlin-Brandenburg.

    Or have we already reached that stage?
     
  28. FelixtheCat

    FelixtheCat Established Member

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    I don't think so. I think that title may well be reserved for bits of HS2.
     

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