Crossrail opening delayed (opening date not yet known)

[matt_world2004]

It seems that different people got widely different messages from yesterday's TfL Board Meeting.

The Evening Standard says:



While shares magazine has a completely different headline:

Isnt George Osbournes spin wonderful.

 

[moggie]

WIth TPWS+ HEx 387s just need interiors stuff sorting (many have already been stripped of old seat cover /padding and had the seats moved etc. ETCS on the387s will take longer, but TPWS+ in the Heatrow tunnels is key to getting 345s and 387s working in there sooner rather than later.

Belatedly picked up on this; since when was it decided to fit TPWS+ in Heathrow Tunnel? I know about the ATP - ETCS system migration debacle and always considered Enhanced TPWS (TPWS+ is junction signalling protection method to be pedantic) would have been the logical bridge to the issues encountered but have never seen anything until your post suggesting they had adopted such a proposal. I thought they were still pinning their hopes on various software mods to overcome the alleged ATP generated EMI issues encountered during ETCS system tests. Is it fact Enhanced (i.e. fitted to all stop signals) TPWS is now proposed in the tunnel section?

 

[hwl]

Belatedly picked up on this; since when was it decided to fit TPWS+ in Heathrow Tunnel? I know about the ATP - ETCS system migration debacle and always considered Enhanced TPWS (TPWS+ is junction signalling protection method to be pedantic) would have been the logical bridge to the issues encountered but have never seen anything until your post suggesting they had adopted such a proposal. I thought they were still pinning their hopes on various software mods to overcome the alleged ATP generated EMI issues encountered during ETCS system tests. Is it fact Enhanced (i.e. fitted to all stop signals) TPWS is now proposed in the tunnel section?

Worth remembering that they still have the issue of getting ETCS working on the 387s too - it isn't all about Crossrail!

 

[JN114]

No plans to fit TPWS of any flavour in the Heathrow Tunnels. Given the very limited engineering access, and it being fully slab-tracked the installation time and cost would be astronomical - ETCS took a couple of years to drill the slab and install the balises; and they need less additional cabling and ancillaries vs TPWS.

345s have been testing down there overnight quite recently. The first ETCS-fitted 387s are still being done at Ilford at the moment so we’re a little way away from testing them yet.

 

[kevin_roche]

No plans to fit TPWS of any flavour in the Heathrow Tunnels. Given the very limited engineering access, and it being fully slab-tracked the installation time and cost would be astronomical - ETCS took a couple of years to drill the slab and install the balises; and they need less additional cabling and ancillaries vs TPWS.

345s have been testing down there overnight quite recently.

Yes! The plan is to use TPWS from Paddington to Airport Junction and ETCS from Airport Junction to Heathrow was confirmed to me by Paul Stanford Programme Director Network Rail Western Route at a recent IET meeting in Reading. Network Rail are planning to install ETCS all the way to Paddington by Easter 2020 but Crossrail are not planning to use it when they start running 345s from Paddington to Heathrow next year.

 

[moggie]

Yes! The plan is to use TPWS from Paddington to Airport Junction and ETCS from Airport Junction to Heathrow was confirmed to me by Paul Stanford Programme Director Network Rail Western Route at a recent IET meeting in Reading. Network Rail are planning to install ETCS all the way to Paddington by Easter 2020 but Crossrail are not planning to use it when they start running 345s from Paddington to Heathrow next year.

Yes, that fits with what I thought hence I questioned the earlier post from hwl. Indeed, this has been the technical plan for a considerable time although the ATP-ETCS system migration issues in Heathrow branch tunnel has obviously done for the original timescales. I note you state the plan is to install ETCS by Easter 2020. I wonder if the date the ETCS rail system becomes operation capable is the same! I understand the Heathrow ETCS system testing is ongoing but putting two and two together if cl.387 ETCS modifications are also in the mire then one wonders how effectively the track to train system integration testing is progressing?

 

[JN114]

The 387 mods themselves aren’t in the mire per se - there were some safety validation aspects of the ETCS install that GWR and Bombardier didn’t quite agree on; these are being addressed (if not already, it’s been a few weeks since we were last updated).

Work has backed up while this was thrashed out, but once the first unit is delivered and validated the rest can be done fairly quickly.

 

[Ethano92]

I know this thread appears to be more the construction side of things but I was just wondering if the sort of "big 6" advertising scheme will still go ahead when the Elizabeth line brand is launched. And is this the reason why the 345s currently only have TFL advertisements, in anticipation of this scheme?

Thanks in advance for any info

 

[ijmad]

Cheeky shot over the top of the metal barriers that have replaced the hoardings at Farringdon:

Wondering if these stairs might be opened to effectively restore the second set of stairs to the Northbound Thameslink platform, could certainly do with it.

 

[kevin_roche]

I know this thread appears to be more the construction side of things but I was just wondering if the sort of "big 6" advertising scheme will still go ahead when the Elizabeth line brand is launched. And is this the reason why the 345s currently only have TFL advertisements, in anticipation of this scheme?

At the recent TfL meeting the issue was raised that more normal advertising might raise more money. It seems that the Big 6 idea has been dropped. Perhaps considering the delay there are no longer suitable takers? I think it was Caroline Pigeon who asked the question and something about the station designs being all very clean, but where would the adverts go?

 

[samuelmorris]

At the recent TfL meeting the issue was raised that more normal advertising might raise more money. It seems that the Big 6 idea has been dropped. Perhaps considering the delay there are no longer suitable takers? I think it was Caroline Pigeon who asked the question and something about the station designs being all very clean, but where would the adverts go?

I can't blame them, preparing for an ad campaign that might not happen for three years is a bit brave. They may yet resurrect the idea in part, with some of the original proposed participants, if not all of them - in much the same way they lend large advertising spaces to companies now, e.g. the gin tunnel at Kings Cross.

 

[The Ham]

Slightly off thread, and so a new thread created (with a poll):

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/should-we-build-crossrail-2.192472/

Should we build Crossrail 2?

It's relevent to link from this thread given the problems there's been with the original, and dies this impact on people's thinking about the next one?

 

[JW16]

Purple TfL roundels are appearing on platforms now (eg Chadwell Heath, Goodmayes), with plain rectangular name signs being put on the mainline platforms not used by the TfL services.

 

[itfcfan]

A new article on this subject has been posted on London Reconnections:

Crossrail: Progressing but slipping
News on progress of existing TfL schemes has been in short supply during most of 2019. As if to make up for this, the 23rd October meeting of the Programmes & Investment Committee provided not only comprehensive background papers on a range of subjects but also a very informative discussion of the issues raised.

https://www.londonreconnections.com/2019/crossrail-progressing-but-slipping/

 

[samuelmorris]

A new article on this subject has been posted on London Reconnections:

https://www.londonreconnections.com/2019/crossrail-progressing-but-slipping/

Thanks for the link, so in other words work is carrying on as it was before, but still at a slower pace than everybody would like. Based on the comments in that article, I'd expect roughly the below timescale:

Phase 5a (PAD-RDG): December 2019 (7-car), May-August 2020 (9-car)
Phase 2 (PAD-Heathrow): May 2020
Phase 3 (ABX-PAD): May-September 2021
Phase 4 (SNF-PAD): December 2021 or May 2022 (7-car LST-GDP)
Phase 5b (RDG-ABX): May or December 2022
LST platform remodel: August 2022, 9-car LST-GDP services to follow Oct-Dec 2022

Overall, broadly 3 years behind schedule. May-Sep 2021 for the core is pessimistic based on those discussions but I think reasonable in the context of how that continues to slip day by day.

 

[hwl]

Thanks for the link, so in other words work is carrying on as it was before, but still at a slower pace than everybody would like. Based on the comments in that article, I'd expect roughly the below timescale:

Phase 5a (PAD-RDG): December 2019 (7-car), May-August 2020 (9-car)
Phase 2b (PAD-Heathrow): May 2020
Phase 3 (ABX-PAD): May-September 2021
Phase 4 (SNF-PAD): December 2021 or May 2022 (7-car LST-GDP)
Phase 5b (RDG-ABX): May or December 2022
LST platform remodel: August 2022, 9-car LST-GDP services to follow Oct-Dec 2022

Overall, broadly 3 years behind schedule. May-Sep 2021 for the core is pessimistic based on those discussions but I think reasonable in the context of how that continues to slip day by day.

Which is some what different to what the article actually says at tending towards a 2 year delay rather than 3 but 2.5 at risk of occurring.

 

[samuelmorris]

Which is some what different to what the article actually says at tending towards a 2 year delay rather than 3 but 2.5 at risk of occurring.

A bit more than that, the article does state "It seems that the expected delay is around two years and, in most cases probably slightly longer", but the current estimate is March to May 2021 and they don't seem particularly confident about that - May 2021 would already be very nearly 2 1/2 years from the original December 2018. Given that things are still slipping, combined with the statements made about wanting to keep a minimum of 6 months between phases, I think 3 years is more likely, even taking the article at face value without speculating.

 

[hwl]

A bit more than that, the article does state "It seems that the expected delay is around two years and, in most cases probably slightly longer", but the current estimate is March to May 2021 and they don't seem particularly confident about that - May 2021 would already be very nearly 2 1/2 years from the original December 2018. Given that things are still slipping, combined with the statements made about wanting to keep a minimum of 6 months between phases, I think 3 years is more likely, even taking the article at face value without speculating.

Which is 2-2.5 years not 3.

The slippage doesn't now necessarily run through to later stages as it originally would have, as many outstanding GW(ML) issues will be sorted by the end of next year (including surface station rebuilds) hence 5b is a bit more flexible timing wise as the big GWML timetable change needed is happening in 6 weeks anyway.

5b can easily be phased with running the 2b/5a services connected to the core before adding the rest of the additional new 4tph (that can't currently run because there isn't enough platform space at Paddington.) when through running has bedded in properly.

Bond Street readiness is now the key 5b driver

 

[Snow1964]

A bit more than that, the article does state "It seems that the expected delay is around two years and, in most cases probably slightly longer", but the current estimate is March to May 2021 and they don't seem particularly confident about that - May 2021 would already be very nearly 2 1/2 years from the original December 2018. Given that things are still slipping, combined with the statements made about wanting to keep a minimum of 6 months between phases, I think 3 years is more likely, even taking the article at face value without speculating.

And the could be delayed parts within the phases above
Seems to be some debate if Bond Street will open later, and some of the Western stations on phase 5a will not have their lifts ready by phase start date

 

[kevin_roche]

I see on the ITV News website:

London Paddington, which connects the capital with the south-west, will shut on Christmas Eve until December 27, and then a reduced timetable will be in place until the new year.
Part of the work, which will affect Great Western Railway, Heathrow Express and TfL Rail services, will enable the engineers to focus on delivering the heavily delayed Crossrail infrastructure.

Is this the installation of ETCS or something else? Anyone know?

 

[Trailfinder]

Replacement of Southall West junction.

 

[kevin_roche]

Replacement of Southall West junction.

Thank you.

 

[ijmad]

The official YouTube channel has put up a new video about signalling on Crossrail :

 

[kevin_roche]

The official YouTube channel has put up a new video about signalling on Crossrail :

You just beat me to it.

Is it just me that would like them to say something non trivial?

 

[Roger100]

You just beat me to it.

Is it just me that would like them to say something non trivial?

It tells the public how complex the task is, maybe preparing the way for more delay?

 

[gavin]

Crossrail won't be opening in 2020 owing to further delay's. It'll open as soon as "practically possible" in 2021

 

[ijmad]

Crossrail won't be opening in 2020 owing to further delay's. It'll open as soon as "practically possible" in 2021

The official line since April is that the opening will be between October 2020 and March 2021.

So technically, that wouldn't be an additional delay.

 

[iphone76]

The official line since April is that the opening will be between October 2020 and March 2021.

So technically, that wouldn't be an additional delay.

True. But if they are now saying as soon as practically possible, I would imagine it being past March 21.

 

[ijmad]

True. But if they are now saying as soon as practically possible, I would imagine it being past March 21.

I hadn't seen the full news story when I posted. Here's the IanVisits take:

https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/11/08/crossrail-warns-of-more-delays-and-cost-overuns/

 

[Searle]

The official line since April is that the opening will be between October 2020 and March 2021.

So technically, that wouldn't be an additional delay.

Perhaps they should just say it will open between October 2020 and December 2099 to avoid being accused of further delays