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Death rate revised down

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Ken H

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Winter routinely causes 30k excess deaths (average 39k over 5 years, defined as compared with previous/following quarter) so max 20k deaths can be attributed to flu
https://fullfact.org/online/Excess-winter-deaths-UK/

I presume by "closed" you mean "not offering face to face GP appointments?"
what use is a phone/video consultation? The doc cant observe the patient, listen to his chest, or check his abdomen, observe his demeanour. So vital diagnostic tools are lost.
I doubt my GP would have diagnosed my burst appendix via video link (standard test is to press lower right abdomen, and let go suddenly.) cant do that without the patient there. I could have ended up at A+E 6 hours later with sepsis.
 
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adc82140

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Slightly up, but this is what happens when they go mad with tests where they think it's about.
The ONS said as much last week. The recorded cases are going up, but in their random testing it has flatlined. You test more you find more. This is why the rate is staying high in areas with local lockdowns, but is falling in places like Swindon which was high, but not subjected to a testing blitz.
 

F Great Eastern

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what use is a phone/video consultation? The doc cant observe the patient, listen to his chest, or check his abdomen, observe his demeanour. So vital diagnostic tools are lost.
I doubt my GP would have diagnosed my burst appendix via video link (standard test is to press lower right abdomen, and let go suddenly.) cant do that without the patient there. I could have ended up at A+E 6 hours later with sepsis.

But there is a lot of things that can be done via phone and video conversations. Of course the things like you discuss cannot be done but people with such issues are being offered face to face appointments in my experience.
 

Bantamzen

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The ONS said as much last week. The recorded cases are going up, but in their random testing it has flatlined. You test more you find more. This is why the rate is staying high in areas with local lockdowns, but is falling in places like Swindon which was high, but not subjected to a testing blitz.

This is exactly what happened in Bradford, there was a testing blitz including a walk-in testing centre right in the middle of the city, and lo! More cases were found, leading to the additional restrictions we now have, meaning more testing, meaning more cases, meaning more restrictions....

Its a self fulfilling prophesy.
 

Ken H

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This is exactly what happened in Bradford, there was a testing blitz including a walk-in testing centre right in the middle of the city, and lo! More cases were found, leading to the additional restrictions we now have, meaning more testing, meaning more cases, meaning more restrictions....

Its a self fulfilling prophesy.
the number they should go on is not cases but cases found per tests done. The actual number of cases is a meaningless stat. But stats have been rubbish all through this. Whether on purpose or through incompetence I would not like to say.
 

DB

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the number they should go on is not cases but cases found per tests done. The actual number of cases is a meaningless stat. But stats have been rubbish all through this. Whether on purpose or through incompetence I would not like to say.

The main thing all these asymptomatic cases should do is highlight the fact that the hospitalisation rate / death rate as a percentage of infections is actually far lower than previously thought (i.e. the virus is less dangerous than portrayed). Somehow the government and media manage to ignore this, though!
 

Ken H

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The main thing all these asymptomatic cases should do is highlight the fact that the hospitalisation rate / death rate as a percentage of infections is actually far lower than previously thought (i.e. the virus is less dangerous than portrayed). Somehow the government and media manage to ignore this, though!
I could put my tinfoil hat on and say they are ramping up the fear so the vaccine is taken up widely.

but remember, the drug companies want indemnifying against any claims if it goes wrong. which suggests they have no faith in their testing.
Some of us remember Thalidomide.....
 

Bantamzen

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the number they should go on is not cases but cases found per tests done. The actual number of cases is a meaningless stat. But stats have been rubbish all through this. Whether on purpose or through incompetence I would not like to say.

Originally it was deaths that drove the decision making, but as demonstrated here as the numbers fell (none here in almost two weeks) new measures were needed to keep the proles under control. How long before the direction thee wind is blowing will become a factor?

I could put my tinfoil hat on and say they are ramping up the fear so the vaccine is taken up widely.

but remember, the drug companies want indemnifying against any claims if it goes wrong. which suggests they have no faith in their testing.
Some of us remember Thalidomide.....

It really wouldn't surprise me to find some ulterior motive here. Frankly nothing short of an alien lizard invasion would this year!
 

Ken H

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Originally it was deaths that drove the decision making, but as demonstrated here as the numbers fell (none here in almost two weeks) new measures were needed to keep the proles under control. How long before the direction thee wind is blowing will become a factor?



It really wouldn't surprise me to find some ulterior motive here. Frankly nothing short of an alien lizard invasion would this year!
You are David Ike and I claim my £5

:)
 
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