Decarbonisation - How Many Alternative-Traction Units Will We Need?

[Rhydgaled]

Does the Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy (TDNS) published by Network Rail say how many battery and hydrogen trains will be needed if and when the recommended electrification programme is completed? I had a very quick look and don't think it does, but maybe I missed it. Given the extensive electrification proposed, it doesn't look like the long-term market for hydrogen and battery trains in Great Britain is very large. But just how small is it?

I'm not sure whether this is the best place for this, but since I am essentially asking how many diagrams are needed to run various routes I thought it fit in this section.

Here's a list of all (I don't think I missed any, let me know if I did) routes not earmarked for full electrification in the TDNS. I have included electrified sections that hydrogen/battery stock will traverse as this mileage still influences the number of units required. I am being optimistic and assuming 3rd rail electrification is approved. Can you help fill in the blanks of how many trains are required to run each route?

Scotland (traction source not yet determined)

Route​	Journey Time​	Assumed Frequency​	Units Required​
Inverness - Kyle Of Lochalsh Inverness - Wick via Thurso	2hrs 40mins​ 4hrs 20mins​	6 trains per day​ 4 per day​	6​
Wick - Thurso	27mins​	Infill Shuttles​	1​
Glasgow - Oban	3hrs 15min​	Every 2hrs​	4​
Glasgow - Mallaig	5hrs 10min​	3 per day*​	3​
Glasgow - Stranraer	3hrs​	Every 2hrs​	3-4​

* plus one Fort William - Mallaig

Battery Trains

Route​	Journey Time​	Assumed Frequency​	Units Required​
Windermere Branch	19mins​	Hourly​	1​
Darlington - Bishop Auckland	26mins​	Hourly​	2​
Middlesbrough - Whitby	1hr 30mins​	Every 3hrs​	2​
Middlesbrough - Nunthorpe	15mins​	Hourly​	1​
Blackpool South - Preston	35mins​	Hourly​	2​
Leeds - Harrogate - York	1hr 15mins​	Every 30mins​	6​
Wrexham Central - Bidston	?​	Every 30mins​	4​
Hull - Scarborough	1hr 30min​	Hourly​	3​
Sheffield - Hull (Scarborough services)	Optional​	Electrified Route​	2​
Sheffield - Huddersfield via Penistone	1hr 20mins​	Hourly​	3​
Barton-On-Humber - Cleethorpes	52mins​	Hourly​	2​
Nottingham - Derby - Matlock	1hr 5mins​	Hourly​	3​
Chester - Manchester Piccadilly via Altrincham	1hr 30mins​	Hourly​	4​
Southport - Stalybridge	1hr 40mins​	Every 30mins​	8​
Marlow Branch	23mins​	Every 30min (peak)​	2 (peak)​
Henley-On-Thames Branch	12mins​	Every 30mins​	2​
Bristol Temple Meads - Weymouth	2hrs 25mins​	Hourly​	5​
Plymouth - Gunnislake	?​	?​	1​
Liskeard - Looe	?​	?​	1​
Truro - Falmouth Docks	?​	Every 30mins​	2​
St. Erth - St. Ives	?​	Every 30mins​	1​
Ebbw Vale Town - Cardiff Central	1hr 3mins​	Hourly​	3​
Ebbw Vale Town - Newport	55mins ?​	Hourly​	2​
Llandudno - Blaenau Ffestiniog	?​	Every 2hrs​	2​

Missing (initially) from the above (because I'm not sure what the full route would/should be) are:
Hull - Scarborough (now added above thanks to info from NoMorePacers)
Penistone Line (now assumed to be Sheffield - Huddersfield)
Ellesmere Port - Helsby
Wigan - Southport (now assumed to be Southport - Stalybridge)
Heysham branch (traction type TBA)

Hydrogen Trains

Route​	Journey Time​	Assumed Frequency​	Units Required​
Norwich - Great Yarmouth Norwich - Lowestoft Lowestoft - Ipswich	45mins​ 33mins​ 1hr 30mins​	Hourly + Peak Extras​ Hourly Service​	10​
Norwich - Sheringham	1hr​	Hourly + Peak Extras​	5​
Swansea - Llandrindod Wells - Shrewsbury	4hrs​	10 per day (mix of fast and slow)​	5​
Aberystwyth - Birmingham International	3hrs 11mins​	Hourly​	7​
Pwllheli - Birmingham International Holyhead - Birmingahm International **	5hrs 15mins​	Every 2hrs​	10​

** electrified throughout, but portion works with Cambrian services

I will try to return to this and add some more data when I have time, but would welcome any information you can add.

 

[PeterC]

** electrified throughout, but portion works with Cambrian services

Possibly a silly question but is there any technical reason why units using different power sources can't be designed to work in multiple?

 

[Rhydgaled]

Possibly a silly question but is there any technical reason why units using different power sources can't be designed to work in multiple?

Probably not; if the class 801 had been a pure electric rather than an underpowered bi-mode they would probably still be able to work in multiple with class 800s because it was in the IEP spec. However, if you want two trains to work in multiple these days you seem to have to order them at the same time. Even 196s apparently can't multi with 195s (not sure about 197s with 196s).

 

[markymark2000]

Does the Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy (TDNS) published by Network Rail say how many battery and hydrogen trains will be needed if and when the recommended electrification programme is completed? I had a very quick look and don't think it does, but maybe I missed it. Given the extensive electrification proposed, it doesn't look like the long-term market for hydrogen and battery trains in Great Britain is very large. But just how small is it?

I'm not sure whether this is the best place for this, but since I am essentially asking how many diagrams are needed to run various routes I thought it fit in this section.

Here's a list of all (I don't think I missed any, let me know if I did) routes not earmarked for full electrification in the TDNS. I have included electrified sections that hydrogen/battery stock will traverse as this mileage still influences the number of units required. I am being optimistic and assuming 3rd rail electrification is approved. Can you help fill in the blanks of how many trains are required to run each route?

Scotland (traction source not yet determined)

Route​	Journey Time​	Assumed Frequency​	Units Required​
Inverness - Kyle Of Lochalsh	2hrs 40mins​	?​	?​
Inverness - Wick via Thurso	4hrs 20mins​	4 per day​	?​
Glasgow - Oban	3hrs 15min​	Every 2hrs​	4​
Glasgow - Mallaig	5hrs 10min​	3 per day*​	3​
Glasgow - Stranraer	3hrs​	Every 2hrs​	3-4​

* plus one Fort William - Mallaig

Battery Trains

Route​	Journey Time​	Assumed Frequency​	Units Required​
Windermere Branch	?​	?​	?​
Darlington - Bishop Auckland	?​	?​	?​
Middlesbrough - Whitby	?​	?​	?​
Blackpool South	?​	?​	?​
Leeds - Harrogate - York	?​	?​	?​
Wrexham Central - Bidston	?​	Every 30mins​	4​
Barton-On-Humber - Cleethorpes	?​	?​	?​
Nottingham - Derby - Matlock	?​	?​	?​
Chester - Manchester Piccadilly via Altrincham	?​	?​	?​
Marlow Branch	?​	?​	?​
Henley-On-Thames Branch	?​	?​	?​
Bristol Temple Meads - Weymouth	?​	?​	?​
Plymouth - Gunnislake	?​	?​	?​
Liskeard - Looe	?​	?​	?​
Truro - Falmouth Docks	?​	?​	?​
St. Erth - St. Ives	?​	?​	?​
Ebbw Vale Town - Cardiff Central	?​	Hourly​	?​
Ebbw Vale Town - Newport	?​	Hourly​	?​
Llandudno - Blaenau Ffestiniog	?​	Every 2hrs​	2​

Missing from the above (because I'm not sure what the full route would/should be) are:
Hull - Scarborough (should this continue to run through from Sheffield)
Penistone Line
Ellesmere Port - Helsby
Wigan - Southport
Heysham branch (traction type TBA)

Hydrogen Trains

Route​	Journey Time​	Assumed Frequency​	Units Required​
Norwich - Great Yarmouth via Acle	?​	?​	?​
Norwich - Great Yarmouth via Berney Arms	?​	?​	?​
Norwich - Lowestoft	?​	?​	?​
Ipswich - Lowestoft	?​	?​	?​
Norwich - Sheringham	?​	?​	?​
Swansea - Llandrindod Wells - Shrewsbury	4hrs​	5 per day​	?​
Aberystwyth - Birmingham International	3hrs 11mins​	Hourly​	8?​
Pwllheli - Birmingham International	5hrs 15mins​	Every 2hrs​	?​
Chester / Wrexham General - Birmingahm International **	?​	?​	? ​

** electrified throughout, but portion works with Cambrian services

I will try to return to this and add some more data when I have time, but would welcome any information you can add.

Liskeard to Looe & St Ives Branch & Gunnislake are 1 uni (as that's all the lines could sustain)
Falmouth Docks is half hourly with 2 units
Manchester to Chester via Alt is currently hourly using 4 units. Plans are in to run it half hourly though which if all services ran all stops, would use 7 units.

 

[ABB125]

Probably not; if the class 801 had been a pure electric rather than an underpowered bi-mode they would probably still be able to work in multiple with class 800s because it was in the IEP spec. However, if you want two trains to work in multiple these days you seem to have to order them at the same time. Even 196s apparently can't multi with 195s (not sure about 197s with 196s).

Class 800s and 801s can work in multiple - see the most recent set of LNER Tyne Valley diversions

 

[NoMorePacers]

Missing from the above (because I'm not sure what the full route would/should be) are:
Hull - Scarborough (should this continue to run through from Sheffield)

5 units are allocated when running through to Sheffield - 3 when an hourly shuttle is run to and from Hull.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Liskeard to Looe & St Ives Branch & Gunnislake are 1 uni (as that's all the lines could sustain)
Falmouth Docks is half hourly with 2 units
Manchester to Chester via Alt is currently hourly using 4 units. Plans are in to run it half hourly though which if all services ran all stops, would use 7 units.

5 units are allocated when running through to Sheffield - 3 when an hourly shuttle is run to and from Hull.

Thanks both; data added to the table. I've also done a few more deductions myself.

I've done a few more deductions and now have most of the battery units done. Think I have got to a total of 65 battery units required in use each day. Just not sure what to do with Ellesmere Port - Helsby and the Heysham branch.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I've added some more deductions - I've given a few places quite a big uplift in service (one not entirely within the capabilities of the current infrustructure, but not far off) because I want to show the maximum likely requirement for self-powered vehicles if all the recommended electrification was done.

I am still stuck with two routes; Ellesmere Port - Helsby and the Heysham branch (traction type TBA). I'm just not sure what the likely service pattern for these routes could be. In the case of Ellesmere Port - Helsby, which of these would be most likely:

• Extension of Meresyrail services from Ellesmere Port to Helsby, making the service Helsby-Helsby via the Liverpool loop
• Regular hourly Northern Ellesmere Port - Manchester service via Newton-Le-Willows and Warrington Bank Quay
• Regular hourly Northern Ellesmere Port - Liverpool Lime Street service via Halton Curve and Runcorn
• Regular hourly Northern Ellesmere Port - Liverpool Lime Street service via Earlestown and Huyton

 

[markymark2000]

I've added some more deductions - I've given a few places quite a big uplift in service (one not entirely within the capabilities of the current infrustructure, but not far off) because I want to show the maximum likely requirement for self-powered vehicles if all the recommended electrification was done.

I am still stuck with two routes; Ellesmere Port - Helsby and the Heysham branch (traction type TBA). I'm just not sure what the likely service pattern for these routes could be. In the case of Ellesmere Port - Helsby, which of these would be most likely:

• Extension of Meresyrail services from Ellesmere Port to Helsby, making the service Helsby-Helsby via the Liverpool loop
• Regular hourly Northern Ellesmere Port - Manchester service via Newton-Le-Willows and Warrington Bank Quay
• Regular hourly Northern Ellesmere Port - Liverpool Lime Street service via Halton Curve and Runcorn
• Regular hourly Northern Ellesmere Port - Liverpool Lime Street service via Earlestown and Huyton

None should be done since the potential for the line is basically nil. Stanlow means nothing unless you work the trains for the shift times. Ince & Elton are small villages and have very limited scope for decent usage.

I think Merseyrail will take the service if they can get batteries in these new trains and I think the best way to run it would be peak extensions as current. Based on the December 2020 timetable for Merseyrail, 2 ECS trains arrive in Eport between 7 and 8am. 2 ECS trains leave Eport between 5 and 6pm. There will be something which can be done around these times to extend to Helsby using officially no extra units. If demand rises, the situation could be re-evaluated but until there is any demand, there should not be an increase in services.
There is no good reason as to why money should be wasted (yes wasted) on this line when there are areas which would gain a lot from an enhanced service which would actually be used.

 

[Rhydgaled]

None should be done since the potential for the line is basically nil. Stanlow means nothing unless you work the trains for the shift times. Ince & Elton are small villages and have very limited scope for decent usage.

I think Merseyrail will take the service if they can get batteries in these new trains and I think the best way to run it would be peak extensions as current. Based on the December 2020 timetable for Merseyrail, 2 ECS trains arrive in Eport between 7 and 8am. 2 ECS trains leave Eport between 5 and 6pm. There will be something which can be done around these times to extend to Helsby using officially no extra units. If demand rises, the situation could be re-evaluated but until there is any demand, there should not be an increase in services.
There is no good reason as to why money should be wasted (yes wasted) on this line when there are areas which would gain a lot from an enhanced service which would actually be used.

Thanks for this. It's Meresyrail or nothing then, which rules out doing something with DMUs in the interim (while waiting for battery trains) since Merseyrail doesn't allow DMUs in the central Liverpool tunnels.

Just Heysham left to go now. Does it make sense to retain through running to Leeds, or would Manchester or a shuttle to Lancaster or Barrow-In-Furness make more sense?