The rail industry's work on this suggests that the current pattern of four trains an hour from Brighton that serve both London Bridge and the Thameslink core will need to be replaced by two trains per hour to London Bridge (low level station) and two trains to the Thameslink core. There will be insufficient rolling stock and insufficient track capacity for all four trains (two from the Thameslink core and the two from London Bridge) to reach Brighton, so two trains per hour will have to turn back at Gatwick Airport or Three Bridges.*
However, achievement of this density of service on the Thameslink core route is an extremely demanding challenge and the decision has been taken that the service will only operate reliably if Automatic Train Operation (ATO)6 technology is deployed between St Pancras International low level and London Blackfriars. Development of ATO cannot begin until the new Thameslink trains are available, so it will not be possible to introduce the 24 trains per hour service until December 2018 at the earliest. Therefore, the build-up to the 24 trains per hour full service will be achieved progressively during 2018. There are likely to be incremental changes to the timetable during 2018 to achieve this. *
The services that are currently jointly operated between FCC and Southeastern will continue to be jointed operated until they transfer to the combined franchise in their entirety from 1 April 2014.
We have yet to confirm the exact scope of services that we will transfer from Southeastern in 2018 and we are seeking respondents' views as part of this consultation. Current thinking is that in addition to Thameslink core services serving Sevenoaks, these will be expanded to include Maidstone East. It is also possible that in peak hours this may include some services from Dartford and Orpington.
One particular conclusion has emerged from this work: if services between Kent and the Thameslink core route run via London Bridge it becomes physically impossible, within the envisaged infrastructure available at that time, for the present level of service to continue to run into and out of London Cannon Street. In view of the high demand for Cannon Street services, we believe it may be best for services between Kent and the Thameslink core to run only via Elephant & Castle. We are seeking respondents' views on this and the destinations in Kent that it would be appropriate for Thameslink core services to operate to and from.
The BML timetable pattern will be dictated by the timings of trains as they enter and leave the Thameslink core. We intend to specify the numbers of trains that run on the BML and each of its feeder routes to and from London, but to leave bidders to determine the best pattern of service, and calling patterns, south of Gatwick.
In order to ensure that a sensible pattern of services can be achieved for stations south of Gatwick both to and from Victoria, it may be necessary to make greater use of the practice of operating the non-stop Victoria-Gatwick services (Gatwick Express) as through trains to and from Brighton. This may be best achieved by restoring the practice of detaching (southbound) and attaching (northbound) a portion of the train so that airport passengers can have more time to alight from the train (southbound) and to join (northbound).*
The current FCC franchise includes all suburban services on the Great Northern route. This route serves destinations such as Peterborough, Cambridge, King's Lynn, Stevenage, Welwyn Garden City and Hertford into and out of London Kings Cross and London Moorgate. From 2018, up to eight trains per hour from the Great Northern route will run via the Thameslink core route. Work is currently underway to determine the optimal destinations for these trains. Whilst we do not have proposals as yet, we are considering whether or not it might be appropriate that services that are not serving the Thameslink core route should transfer to the new Intercity East Coast franchise.*
Many stakeholders are aware that Network Rail has recommended, in both the South London and London and South East Route Utilisation Strategies, that Wimbledon loop services should start and terminate at Blackfriars. Network Rail wishes to see trains presented to the Thameslink core punctually, and it sees the crossing moves that the Wimbledon loop trains have to make south of Blackfriars as potential conflicts with other trains, and thus a threat to punctuality. At peak times, from December 2018, it will be possible for up to 16 trains per hour to approach Blackfriars from the south route via Elephant & Castle, but for no more than eight of these to proceed through the Thameslink core. The other eight must terminate in the new platforms on the west side of Blackfriars station. All these trains will approach Blackfriars either from the Denmark Hill direction (including Catford loop trains) or from Herne Hill (including Wimbledon loop trains). The question to be decided is which six or eight trains (depending on whether 16 or 18 approach from London Bridge) go through the Thameslink core and which terminate. Trains that use these routes today come from Sutton, Wimbledon, Ashford (via Maidstone East), Rochester, Sevenoaks, Orpington, Beckenham Junction and Kent House. We are seeking respondents' views on which of these service groups should run through the Thameslink core and which should terminate at Blackfriars.