Divide and rule: how bad is it and how can it be resolved?

[brad465]

We already know from the whole Brexit situation that the country is divided and all the problems that come with that, but from experiences I've seen and heard, the whole pandemic is at least as equally divisive, but probably even more so.

The area I see this as most problematic is with regards to rule breaking: it's really easy for some just to blame the escalating cases on those not following the rules, when I'm confident they're not the biggest problem and anyone blaming them hasn't looked into it properly. I don't know how bad it is numerically, although from observations I've seen it cannot be anywhere near as much a virus spreading cause as schools being open, where across the UK around 10 million pupils and 500,000 teachers interact 5 days a week for at least 6 hours a day, plus all the interactions with their households. Then there's all the University interactions and related movements and businesses where working from home isn't possible. I also believe not all rule breaking is deliberate as for some self-isolation is unaffordable for some so to them the virus is the least of their worries if they get it. In any case I still believe rule breaking is in minority although higher than in the spring, but fatigue is ultimately going to be an issue we can't really allow to get worse any longer.

While criticism of Government handling is much more united (i.e. more criticism than support), it's on two different fronts: the opposition unsurprisingly is criticising doing everything late, and/or half hearted on one side and mixed/confusing messaging, then Government backbenchers, media outlets who normally support the current Government and groups of the population disapproving of the strategy on the grounds of being unsustainable and/or against civil liberties on the other side.

My thinking is a more sustainable strategy should be pursued, that in theory should greatly reduce the whole rule breaking issue, something many other users here from other threads appear to want as well. I'm hoping that with infection levels currently appearing to be declining right now in this wave that, should this hopefully continue, calls for a change in approach will increase and maybe the whole rule-breaking problems will subside with it, while in any case the longer this goes on the more there'll be questioning the whole approach, especially now we know of a vaccine (however effective it is) is out there.

What are others' thoughts and possible experiences on how much society is divided on this issue and how it can be rectified?

 

[johnnychips]

Where I work we have something like the Fight Club - the first rule of the COVID thing is we follow the rules but don’t talk about the efficacy or otherwise of them and just get on with our jobs. This works very well.

 

[bramling]

We already know from the whole Brexit situation that the country is divided and all the problems that come with that, but from experiences I've seen and heard, the whole pandemic is at least as equally divisive, but probably even more so.

The area I see this as most problematic is with regards to rule breaking: it's really easy for some just to blame the escalating cases on those not following the rules, when I'm confident they're not the biggest problem and anyone blaming them hasn't looked into it properly. I don't know how bad it is numerically, although from observations I've seen it cannot be anywhere near as much a virus spreading cause as schools being open, where across the UK around 10 million pupils and 500,000 teachers interact 5 days a week for at least 6 hours a day, plus all the interactions with their households. Then there's all the University interactions and related movements and businesses where working from home isn't possible. I also believe not all rule breaking is deliberate as for some self-isolation is unaffordable for some so to them the virus is the least of their worries if they get it. In any case I still believe rule breaking is in minority although higher than in the spring, but fatigue is ultimately going to be an issue we can't really allow to get worse any longer.

While criticism of Government handling is much more united (i.e. more criticism than support), it's on two different fronts: the opposition unsurprisingly is criticising doing everything late, and/or half hearted on one side and mixed/confusing messaging, then Government backbenchers, media outlets who normally support the current Government and groups of the population disapproving of the strategy on the grounds of being unsustainable and/or against civil liberties on the other side.

My thinking is a more sustainable strategy should be pursued, that in theory should greatly reduce the whole rule breaking issue, something many other users here from other threads appear to want as well. I'm hoping that with infection levels currently appearing to be declining right now in this wave that, should this hopefully continue, calls for a change in approach will increase and maybe the whole rule-breaking problems will subside with it, while in any case the longer this goes on the more there'll be questioning the whole approach, especially now we know of a vaccine (however effective it is) is out there.

What are others' thoughts and possible experiences on how much society is divided on this issue and how it can be rectified?

I think Britain was always fairly divided, this isn't a new thing simply that Brexit and Covid have amplified and highlighted this. How to solve such divisions is less clear - Blair tried devolution and that seems to have catalysed things.

 

[HSTEd]

Well its just an extension of the widening rift between generations that has been going on for years.

Even those young people who still fervently support the lockdown are going to be angry when they realise that they are the ones who will pay for this, whilst the elder generation continues to get richer.

The abolition of the triple lock and linking of state pension solely to prices would probably help, but that will never happen.

 

[Tracked]

A quick glance over Facebook suggests people are willing to pass on messages that are in fact a massive oversimplifications of blame, sometimes incorrectly suggesting reasons are mutually exclusive, the posts I usually see are;

- "It's not the government's fault, it's people breaking the rules"
- "I honestly can say I haven't broken any of the lockdown rules"
- "It's the government (Barnard Castle/Durham)"

But never something that's more comprehensively accurate, which would probably look like;

"The main causes of the spread of Coronavirus are:

(1) It's something that can easily be passed on, for example; by people unaware they've got it.
(2) Inconsistent behaviour and messaging from the Government.
(3) People breaking the rules.

In that order."

Another couple of things I'd say about "breaking the rules" posts is that - like me - a lot of people sharing posts of that nature are based in South Yorkshire, where we went through 4 different versions of rules in little over a month! No-one ever notes that when sharing stuff. The other thing is that the BLM protests have started being mentioned in the "breaking the rules" posts again recently. An interesting way of mentioning them would be based on the MD Coronavirus Page in Private Eye, which notes that they demonstrated that risk of transmission in the open air is tiny compared to indoor locations. I did think at the time that some peoples' (excessively repeated) condemnation of the protests might run the risk of people thinking their anger wasn't really about spreading Coronavirus (Particularly highlighted when a news story about illegal raves messing up beauty spots in the news a week later attracted no similar outrage, not even a mention; Indeed, a keen walker - from their regular photo's out walking in the country - among the people concerned was still on about their hitherto unknown love of statue preservation at that point).

 

[yorkie]

Very good opening post, and some good replies too. I don't have any answers, but...

Well its just an extension of the widening rift between generations that has been going on for years.

Perhaps in part, though primarily I think it's not so much a generational thing. There are a lot of other factors at play.

 

[yorksrob]

An interesting way of mentioning them would be based on the MD Coronavirus Page in Private Eye, which notes that they demonstrated that risk of transmission in the open air is tiny compared to indoor locations. I did think at the time that some peoples' (excessively repeated) condemnation of the protests might run the risk of people thinking their anger wasn't really about spreading Coronavirus (Particularly highlighted when a news story about illegal raves messing up beauty spots in the news a week later attracted no similar outrage, not even a mention; Indeed, a keen walker - from their regular photo's out walking in the country - among the people concerned was still on about their hitherto unknown love of statue preservation at that point).

The more interesting point is that given the likelihood of transmission outdoors is so small, why have Government slapped a ban on people from more than two households meeting outside.

It's no wonder the Government/SAGE have lost credibility.

 

[island]

The more interesting point is that given the likelihood of transmission outdoors is so small, why have Government slapped a ban on people from more than two households meeting outside.

• Something must be done
• this is something
• Therefore, we must do it

 

[yorksrob]

• Something must be done
• this is something
• Therefore, we must do it

Yes, that's pretty much my take on it.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

• Something must be done
• this is something
• Therefore, we must do it

Yes, that's pretty much my take on it.

Yes mine too. Politicians have an inherent need to be seen to be doing something.

 

[Yew]

The more interesting point is that given the likelihood of transmission outdoors is so small, why have Government slapped a ban on people from more than two households meeting outside.

It's no wonder the Government/SAGE have lost credibility.

In some ways, it feels like self-flagellation; if we all make sacrifices then the virus will go away. Perhaps Boris could try sacrificing a Goat in Westminster Abbey.

 

[Dent]

In some ways, it feels like self-flagellation; if we all make sacrifices then the virus will go away. Perhaps Boris could try sacrificing a Goat in Westminster Abbey.

It's not self-flagellation, because it's not people doing it to themselves but the government doing it to the people. Similarly all the talk of people "making sacrifices" is wrong since the people are not choosing to make sacrifices but are suffering restrictions unilaterally imposed on them by the government.

 

[brad465]

I think Britain was always fairly divided, this isn't a new thing simply that Brexit and Covid have amplified and highlighted this. How to solve such divisions is less clear - Blair tried devolution and that seems to have catalysed things.

A proportional representation voting system will help heal divisions in the sense Politicians won't be able to use divisive rhetoric to fire up their base in pursuit of power, as they would need to acquire votes from as broad a range as possible to stand a chance of Governing.

I do also believe the neoliberalist/capitalist system plays a part: when a mindset is imposed on the population of wanting more stuff and trying to complete an impossible climb up a ladder of wealth, the majority think for themselves and try to gain as much at others' expenses. The Covid-induced panic buying earlier this year was a perfect representation of this.

As you say these were all problems pre-Covid, but Covid has exposed and worsened them further.

Well its just an extension of the widening rift between generations that has been going on for years.

Even those young people who still fervently support the lockdown are going to be angry when they realise that they are the ones who will pay for this, whilst the elder generation continues to get richer.

The abolition of the triple lock and linking of state pension solely to prices would probably help, but that will never happen.

I'm of the belief the reason there is a generational divide is because the younger generation is taught about actions/beliefs/attitudes that are very different to what older generations were taught and viewed as acceptable when they were younger. This has been evident plenty this year with things like cancel culture and trying to boycott/shame actions that may have been acceptable decades or so ago but are not now.

 

[DB]

- "It's not the government's fault, it's people breaking the rules"

And that one is frequently accompanied by "if people followed the rules this would be over quicker" When it is pointed out to them that if the rules actually achieve anything (often debateable), it will be to slow down the spread, therefore making the situation drag on for longer if compliance is higher.

They never seem to have an answer to that.

 

[brad465]

Recently in two separate conversations with friends at work I was able to persuade them (by the sounds of their responses) to rethink/think deeper about the causes of Covid spreading and not to fixate on rule breakers as being wholly responsible, with the following statements/beliefs:

-Not all rule breaking is deliberate, as self-isolation is unaffordable for some.
-People are not born rule breakers, society will have made them behave as such, highlighting the role of our consumerism-driven society in making people think for themselves and always want more and more stuff. I used the analogy "pulling the weed out without the root" to sum up that just criticising them won't change anything, unless society (i.e. the root causes) are also changed.
-Explained other scenarios likely to help spread Covid, including highlighting the numbers involved in school environments (without fully blaming them).

While I wasn't trying to tell them the strategy is all wrong (despite believing it is), I did also make some arguments and raise points to try and ease them in that direction:

-I outlined my belief that by March if all the vulnerable people have been vaccinated all restrictions should go, saying how it should take the burden off hospitals and the apparent seasonal behaviour should become more favourable by then.
-For one of them I revealed some unfortunate suicide stats that have come out (namely when the London Ambulance service revealed it was now attending 37 suicides/attempted ones per day, up from 22 last year), and explained how the upcoming spring is the peak season usually for them and argued more needs to be done to prevent this becoming a pandemic in its own right, including the Government outlining a plan to end all restrictions.

 

[matacaster]

A proportional representation voting system will help heal divisions in the sense Politicians won't be able to use divisive rhetoric to fire up their base in pursuit of power, as they would need to acquire votes from as broad a range as possible to stand a chance of Governing.

I do also believe the neoliberalist/capitalist system plays a part: when a mindset is imposed on the population of wanting more stuff and trying to complete an impossible climb up a ladder of wealth, the majority think for themselves and try to gain as much at others' expenses. The Covid-induced panic buying earlier this year was a perfect representation of this.

As you say these were all problems pre-Covid, but Covid has exposed and worsened them further.

I'm of the belief the reason there is a generational divide is because the younger generation is taught about actions/beliefs/attitudes that are very different to what older generations were taught and viewed as acceptable when they were younger. This has been evident plenty this year with things like cancel culture and trying to boycott/shame actions that may have been acceptable decades or so ago but are not now.

The problem with proportional representation (any type) is that what you get is an anodyne set of policies that don't offend anyone, but tend to be somewhat ineffectual. Government by middle of the road does not tend to Promote innovation (see communist ideology)and resist change (unions). Businesses which sit on their laurels and don't innovate /respond to change die (kodak, woolworths etc). Stability is great, but every so often you need a disrupted (tesla, trump etc) to shake things up before return to new normal with stability.

 

[sjpowermac]

Explained other scenarios likely to help spread Covid, including highlighting the numbers involved in school environments (without fully blaming them).

I agree with most of your post, particularly that some people simply haven’t had the financial resources to ‘do their civic duty’ regarding isolation.


Do you have any figures to back up your claim about schools? I know you’ve said ‘likely’, so I’m definitely not picking fault, but on the Return to Education thread I was assured that schools were not a major source of spread.

 

[brad465]

I agree with most of your post, particularly that some people simply haven’t had the financial resources to ‘do their civic duty’ regarding isolation.


Do you have any figures to back up your claim about schools? I know you’ve said ‘likely’, so I’m definitely not picking fault, but on the Return to Education thread I was assured that schools were not a major source of spread.

In the latest infection survey from the ONS they give the different school ages the highest proportions of estimated infections, as much as 3% of the whole population within the different school age ranges, compared to 70+ still being <1%. Also the Government seemed to be concerned enough about prevalence in schools that they came up with that botched last minute proposal about mass testing school kids in a phased return after Christmas.

 

[sjpowermac]

In the latest infection survey from the ONS they give the different school ages the highest proportions of estimated infections, as much as 3% of the whole population within the different school age ranges, compared to 70+ still being <1%. Also the Government seemed to be concerned enough about prevalence in schools that they came up with that botched last minute proposal about mass testing school kids in a phased return after Christmas.

Yes, but others have pointed out that it doesn’t say where children were infected. For what it’s worth, my hunch is that schools have played a major role in the spread but it is hard to find information to back this up.

 

[Richard Scott]

Yes, but others have pointed out that it doesn’t say where children were infected. For what it’s worth, my hunch is that schools have played a major role in the spread but it is hard to find information to back this up.

As I've said before, and now having spoken to others, appears transmission within schools is minimal. Have asked quite a few people who work in schools in various different areas and all have similar patterns, mostly infected pupils got it from parents.

 

[UP13]

Regarding the 'its not the government cancelling Christmas, it's rule breakers' rhetoric on Facebook, I find the people I see posting it openly posted pictures of them breaking the rules earlier in the year. As far as I'm aware they are all Tory voters so are probably back tracking to stop their party being seen as the party that cancelled Christmas.

I know one guy who posted pics and bragged about how he was doing food deliveries to vulnerable people during the first lockdown, while also posting pics of him having dinner parties... He also posted videos of him at illegal lock-ins at pubs during the second lockdown with zero social distancing. He then posts about how rule breakers not the government cancelled Christmas...

Whether you agree with the rules or not, I personally can't stand the hypocrisy. Demanding others follow the rules while not doing so themselves.

 

[sjpowermac]

As I've said before, and now having spoken to others, appears transmission within schools is minimal. Have asked quite a few people who work in schools in various different areas and all have similar patterns, mostly infected pupils got it from parents.

Thank you for that, appreciated.

I’m not arguing for or against though, I just asked the poster if they could back up their claim. I have a hunch that schools are more involved that you say from your experience, but official figures remain hard to come by.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

What's the general consensus as to how the virus is actually still spreading? (Guessing that there may well be a spike in cases in January after yesterday's Christmas Day get-togethers!)

Lots of sectors (undoubtedly many with vested interests) still claiming "It's not down to us, Guv, we're COVID secure!"

 

[DB]

What's the general consensus as to how the virus is actually still spreading? (Guessing that there may well be a spike in cases in January after yesterday's Christmas Day get-togethers!)

Lots of sectors (undoubtedly many with vested interests) still claiming "It's not down to us, Guv, we're COVID secure!"

It's going to be a combination of many factors and situations - the basic fact is that it's going to spread, particularly at this time of year, and obsessive restrictions aren't going to stop it.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm still very suspicious that hospitality is being scapegoated.

An official on the radio mentioned it alongside transmission in the home and at work, but I wouldn't take such assertions on face value without seeing some data now.

 

[Richard Scott]

It's going to be a combination of many factors and situations - the basic fact is that it's going to spread, particularly at this time of year, and obsessive restrictions aren't going to stop it.

Probably made worse by asking/forcing (delete as you wish) people to stay at home. Almost everyone know who's had it contracted it from someone at home (I know they must have got it from somewhere so not saying all is home transmission) so these current restrictions are likely to be counter productive. We'll then be accused of not following the rules and gave even more restrictions. I expect it'll be because people didn't open their windows, it just gets more ridiculous as time goes on.

 

[brad465]

What's the general consensus as to how the virus is actually still spreading? (Guessing that there may well be a spike in cases in January after yesterday's Christmas Day get-togethers!)

Lots of sectors (undoubtedly many with vested interests) still claiming "It's not down to us, Guv, we're COVID secure!"

It's already shooting up according to recent studies, and I'd put that down to a combination of sources, and in particular this new variant said to be more transmissible will be ensuring of that, potentially more so in environments it was hard to transmit in before (like outdoors, but still not as much as indoors). For me the rapid increase at the moment is a double-edged sword, it will lead to more restrictions and blame, but the faster levels increase the sooner they peak and fall off. Given it's winter and we now have a more transmissible variant I don't think any new restrictions will control it, only slow it down at best. It will be increasing immunity via previous infection and vaccinations, plus an improving picture weather wise, that will control it more.

I'm still very suspicious that hospitality is being scapegoated.

An official on the radio mentioned it alongside transmission in the home and at work, but I wouldn't take such assertions on face value without seeing some data now.

Given how much of it is now closed they certainly shouldn't be scapegoating it: in Kent it's been closed since the start of November and that hasn't stopped rates going up here.

 

[yorksrob]

It's already shooting up according to recent studies, and I'd put that down to a combination of sources, and in particular this new variant said to be more transmissible will be ensuring of that, potentially more so in environments it was hard to transmit in before (like outdoors, but still not as much as indoors). For me the rapid increase at the moment is a double-edged sword, it will lead to more restrictions and blame, but the faster levels increase the sooner they peak and fall off. Given it's winter and we now have a more transmissible variant I don't think any new restrictions will control it, only slow it down at best. It will be increasing immunity via previous infection and vaccinations, plus an improving picture weather wise, that will control it more.

Given how much of it is now closed they certainly shouldn't be scapegoating it: in Kent it's been closed since the start of November and that hasn't stopped rates going up here.

The official in question was from Cornwall, so to be fair, hospitality has been open there, but I'm still a lot more sceptical than I would have been prior to this episode.

 

[Bantamzen]

What's the general consensus as to how the virus is actually still spreading? (Guessing that there may well be a spike in cases in January after yesterday's Christmas Day get-togethers!)

Lots of sectors (undoubtedly many with vested interests) still claiming "It's not down to us, Guv, we're COVID secure!"

I'd guess human to human? I still don't understand why we are still searching for the fabled "super spreader". Wherever humans interact, viruses will spread.

 

[DB]

I still don't understand why we are still searching for the fabled "super spreader".

Probably becase it has to be somebody's "fault". First they scapegoated hospitality, but there is no correlation between areas where cases are rising and areas where hospitality is closed - so those who like to play the blame game (whcih definitely includes politicians) are now lookig for someone else to blame.

The fact that on a UK and international scale there is no correlation between restrictive measures and number of cases ought to be a pretty clear indicator that restrictions don't work - but the politicians, and a sizeable part of the population, seems unable, unwilling, or determined not to see this.