Well the LO 172s will likely end up with either LM or Chiltern - despite the lack of gangways it would be nice if LM got them (unless Derby can fashion up some new cab ends to be retrofitted
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Would allow the withdrawal of the 153s (bar the trouble of the Bletchley line which can't take x2 23m carriages) or allow the Snow Hill line services to be bolstered for future growth. Of course the freed up LM 170s could strengthen some peak Snow Hill services, although don't know how hot their accleration is when in multiple with a 172?
Really if it came down to it, it would be more logical for Chiltern and LM to have a little swap round of 172s and 170s. I.e A few 170/5s move off to Chiltern in exchange for their 4 172s - the acceleration of the latter would be much more of value to LM than Chiltern considering the nature of services provided. Add in the LO 172s for LM and that would eliminate the 153s at LM, and means all 172s at LM (as well as Bombardier products at Tyseley, therefore far easier fleet management), and give Chiltern more ideal intercity stock. Chiltern already have to couple a 172 unit to a 168 on a Birmingham-London diagram; would be far more consistent to have a 168/170 than a commuter layout 172. That would be of more sense, however practically not simple I suspect!
The 153 situation is an interesting one with the 2020 DDA compliance. I could see some being reformed for 2 car operation if the financial case was there. The only issue I see is the cost of removing the small cab and also the sagging bodywork that seems to be inflicting the units.
Their flexibility in adding extra capacity is of value - perhaps remove the toilets full stop and couple up permanently to DDA compliant 150s at ATW to add extra capacity?
The 156s will have no problem finding a new home - decent units that with a good refurb will keep going on. East Mids, Anglia or Northern for them.
The 144s could have a future - I saw 144012 a few weeks ago and quite impressed by the work done on it actually. I personally find it short sighted that some of the CAF units on order are 2 cars with future forecasted growth. 144E units could still offer extra capacity if needed, particular in multiple with the 150s. The more realistic option though is Wales:
And with the Welsh Valley Electrification seemingly going nowhere modded Pacers could certainly be required by ATW. With the rates of electrification as they are, and no likely replacement DMUs available for the Pacers in Wales, there is an impending problem. Modded 144s could be a temporary solution, or reformed 153s (although their sluggish acceleration would not be ideal).
The 185s I can see ending up at Arriva North; the handy nature of the Siemens depot, and the ideal nature of some of the routes they operate. The only other is maybe the Wales franchise, freeing up 175s for other duties (freeing up 150s elsewhere in Wales for dispatching down to the Valleys?).
