Does HS2 benefit Northamptonshire?

[A0wen]

Mod Note: Posts #1 - #24 originally in this thread.

You forget that I live on the Calder Valley route and don't have much cause to go to Leeds. I don't see anything in this for me

I live in Northamptonshire which is being dug up to build the first phase of HS2 and from which we get precisely no benefit. No shiny new trains, no new faster service to London.

So I'd think very carefully about your complaint - HS 2 almost entirely benefits the North.

 

[Starmill]

I live in Northamptonshire which is being dug up to build the first phase of HS2 and from which we get precisely no benefit. No shiny new trains, no new faster service to London.

So I'd think very carefully about your complaint - HS 2 almost entirely benefits the North.

Where do you live in Northamptonshire? Northampton's rail services will be much improved by HS2. So it sounds like you're confused here.

 

[A0wen]

Where do you live in Northamptonshire? Northampton's rail services will be much improved by HS2. So it sounds like you're confused here.

I actually live in Northampton - but if you take each of the county's stations in turn:

Kings Sutton - unlikely to see much benefit, yet HS2 is being built on its doorstep.

Northampton - may see improved frequency, unlikely to see significant journey time improvement.

Long Buckby - as Northampton.

Corby, Wellingborough, Kettering - may see improved frequency from every 30 mins unlikely to see improved journey times.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Northampton - may see improved frequency, unlikely to see significant journey time improvement.

"Likely to see improved frequency, likely to see improved punctuality and reliability".

The WCML is crammed. Post HS2 it won't be. Resilience is a good thing and worth money on its own.

 

[Starmill]

It is - currently Chester services are only running to Crewe and that's also the case after timetable change as well.

The earliest Avanti from Chester gets into London at 9.40 am and the last leaves at 18.10 whereas the Runcorn's the first arrives at 7.43 and the last back leaves at 21.07.

So you're saying that the 0448 Holyhead to London Euston leaving Chester approx 0625, arriving approx 0835, and 1910 London Euston to Holyhead, arriving Chester approx 2120 and arriving Holyhead approx 2300, are never coming back? Really? How do you know?

 

[A0wen]

"Likely to see improved frequency, likely to see improved punctuality and reliability".

The WCML is crammed. Post HS2 it won't be. Resilience is a good thing and worth money on its own.

At best it will go from 3 to 4 tph. But the journey time won't improve - at best it'll still be circa an hour which is getting on for what London - Manchester will be on HS2.

In my experience the service is generally pretty reliable and punctual now. The bigger problem will be freight will eat up many of the spare paths - and the Northampton loop is still slow and won't be upgraded under any of these plans for a higher line speed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lime Street can largely be altered within the existing railway land - not heard that before.

Proposals for a new station would need to be funded locally - why?

Because it's totally unnecessary, and so would overall be negative because it would reduce the quality of connections. 2tph @ 200m will be plenty of capacity given that Lime St only serves the immediate hinterland due to the lay of the land and railway geography. If (and I don't believe it will be) the Edinburgh portion is binned from the Glasgow, you could send that to Liverpool too, giving a third, more capacity than can ever be conceived to be needed.

If Liverpool wants a separate station for the purposes of the city's pride, which is the only reason to build one, it's quite right that the full cost should be borne locally.

It's not like Curzon St. Ideally we wouldn't have Curzon St, it'd run into New St, but expanding that is too costly because it's underground.

 

[Starmill]

Northampton - may see improved frequency, unlikely to see significant journey time improvement.

Northampton will benefit from an enormous increase in capacity and a substantial increase in peak frequency post HS2. This is all laid out in the Full Business Case.

 

[Starmill]

At best it will go from 3 to 4 tph.

This is well off topic here but you need to reread the Phase One Full Business Case.

 

[A0wen]

This is well off topic here but you need to reread the Phase One Full Business Case.

Appreciated.

But to close this off -

3tph off peak, which is all it is today.

6tph peak - I think that at one point it was up to 5 on a pre Covid timetable BUT these HS2 Phase 1 services will be slow as there's no journey time improvement in there with the stopping patterns. All bar one stop at Wolverton, all stop at Leighton Buzzard, 3 of them will be semi-fast at best. Page 27 of the Business Case. Those services will struggle to be able to cover London - Northampton in sub 1 hour, let alone the 45 minutes which London - Birmingham will be on HS2.

So sorry, no I don't think Northampton or Northants gains from HS2, but has it running through the county.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Northampton - may see improved frequency, unlikely to see significant journey time improvement.

Why not? Northampton-London is currently at least an hour (just a few slightly faster trains).

BUT... Northamption-Milton Keynes is about 16-17 mins, and Milton Keynes-Euston is 30 minutes on Avanti. That would theoretically give a Northampton-London journey time of 47-ish minutes if you combined those times. Of course that doesn't happen at present because the fast Avanti trains don't go to Northampton, but I don't think there's any reason why that couldn't happen post-HS2. We just don't know at the moment.

 

[A0wen]

Why not? Northampton-London is currently at least an hour (just a few slightly faster trains).

BUT... Northamption-Milton Keynes is about 16-17 mins, and Milton Keynes-Euston is 30 minutes on Avanti. That would theoretically give a Northampton-London journey time of 47-ish minutes if you combined those times. Of course that doesn't happen at present because the fast Avanti trains don't go to Northampton, but I don't think there's any reason why that couldn't happen post-HS2. We just don't know at the moment.

BIB - stopping patterns.

MK - Euston Avanti is non stop, not with stops en route which is what the HS1 Business Case says for the Northampton services. And even then those that only stop once en route to MK will also be stopping at Wolverton on the other side. So there's 3 stops, assume a 3 minute impact for each stop (slowing down, dwell time, acceleration) and you've just added ~10 minutes to your 30 + 17 minutes.

 

[Horizon22]

I live in Northamptonshire which is being dug up to build the first phase of HS2 and from which we get precisely no benefit. No shiny new trains, no new faster service to London.

So I'd think very carefully about your complaint - HS 2 almost entirely benefits the North.

Northampton (and some surrounding areas) may well benefit from increased classic lines services after HS2, so I'm not sure "no benefit" is true.

 

[Starmill]

So sorry, no I don't think Northampton or Northants gains from HS2, but has it running through the county.

Well you're free to be wrong about a large rise in peak capacity in order to give yourself a large chip on your shoulder if you like

 

[A0wen]

Well you're free to be wrong about a large rise in peak capacity in order to give yourself a large chip on your shoulder if you like

When most of that capacity will come by having slower services, you'll forgive my scepticism about the "benefits" - particularly when the slower of those services will have a journey time which you could do London - Birmingham and back on HS2.

Northampton (and some surrounding areas) may well benefit from increased classic lines services after HS2, so I'm not sure "no benefit" is true.

I refer you (as I was referred) to the HS2 Phase 1 business case. Details are in there, you can then make your own mind up as to whether there are benefits for Northampton / Northants.

 

[Horizon22]

When most of that capacity will come by having slower services, you'll forgive my scepticism about the "benefits" - particularly when the slower of those services will have a journey time which you could do London - Birmingham and back on HS2.



I refer you (as I was referred) to the HS2 Phase 1 business case. Details are in there, you can then make your own mind up as to whether there are benefits for Northampton / Northants.

Which I am aware of and decided that extra capacity of any kind (even if that only includes more stopping services, which seems unlikely) is more than "no benefit".

 

[Starmill]

Which I am aware of and decided that extra capacity of any kind (even if that only includes more stopping services, which seems unlikely) is more than "no benefit".

It's almost as if someone has an agenda. Worth noting that Rugby and Milton Keynes Central also see more fast trains to London.

 

[A0wen]

It's almost as if someone has an agenda. Worth noting that Rugby anf Milton Keynes Central also see more fast trains to London.

Not an agenda per se. But when people sit there saying "HS 2 offers a load of benefits to Northamptonshire" when in reality the benefits are no journey time improvements and a swathe of the countryside being dug up, you do have to question the motives somewhat.

I accept that HS2 is needed if only for capacity purposes. But when Northampton ends up with an average journey time of over an hour at the end of it, which is no better than today, you do have to ask whether there really is a "benefit". And it's particularly galling when various other posters are bemoaning the fact that HS2 won't turn up in their town or city, yet will still see improved journey times from the other improvements which *are* happening.

 

[Mikey C]

Not an agenda per se. But when people sit there saying "HS 2 offers a load of benefits to Northamptonshire" when in reality the benefits are no journey time improvements and a swathe of the countryside being dug up, you do have to question the motives somewhat.

I accept that HS2 is needed if only for capacity purposes. But when Northampton ends up with an average journey time of over an hour at the end of it, which is no better than today, you do have to ask whether there really is a "benefit". And it's particularly galling when various other posters are bemoaning the fact that HS2 won't turn up in their town or city, yet will still see improved journey times from the other improvements which *are* happening.

But that's the nature of national infrastructure. Northampton might at least see more trains on the Classic WCML, whereas places further south such as Aylesbury and the Chilterns will see NO real benefits at all from HS1

Much of Kent or indeed East London around Dagenham/Rainham saw no benefit from HS1 etc

 

[Starmill]

Not an agenda per se. But when people sit there saying "HS 2 offers a load of benefits to Northamptonshire" when in reality the benefits are no journey time improvements and a swathe of the countryside being dug up, you do have to question the motives somewhat.

I accept that HS2 is needed if only for capacity purposes. But when Northampton ends up with an average journey time of over an hour at the end of it, which is no better than today, you do have to ask whether there really is a "benefit". And it's particularly galling when various other posters are bemoaning the fact that HS2 won't turn up in their town or city, yet will still see improved journey times from the other improvements which *are* happening.

Deliberately misinterpreteding the point is driven by your own agenda, which in this case is wanting to appear hard done to by the policy but show yourself as virtuous by supporting it anyway.

Your point about journey times is very dubious because currently peak journey times are hindered by the inability of Northampton services to access the fast lines. Unlikely to be the case in 15 years.

 

[A0wen]

Deliberately misinterpreteding the point is driven by your own agenda, which in this case is wanting to appear hard done to by the policy but show yourself as virtuous by supporting it anyway.

Your point about journey times is very dubious because currently peak journey times are hindered by the inability of Northampton services to access the fast lines. Unlikely to be the case in 15 years.

Fine. You're basically calling me disingenuous, which I contest.

There is a simple way to look at this - off peak the *fastest* MK - Euston services takes 33 minutes, that's Avanti using 125 mph stock and fast line running. So there you have a benchmark. LNW reckon Northampton - MK in 16 mins non stop. Add those together and you've got 49 mins with a single MK stop.

But the post HS1 proposals include *at least* 2 more stops (assume 3 min impact) plus dwell at MK, which wasn't counted - so a total of 7 mins.

That's 56 minutes *at best* - basically what the "fast" trains do today.

If you think there are better times on the table, you need to explain how, because there doesn't seem to be at present.

 

[Starmill]

Fine. You're basically calling me disingenuous, which I contest.

You are obsessed with journey times between Northampton and London in 10 - 15 years time. Today, there's no scope for improvement to journey times without capital spending, or someone else suffering. In the future there is scope. If the outworking is that times remain consistent I'll be surprised, but c'est la vie. It's not that bad currently. It's not going to get any worse. Northampton is not the centre of the universe.

You've already been proven incorrect with your initial assertion that there's no benefit at all, and then incorrect again with your assertion that 4tph would be the upper limit of frequency when it is in fact at least 6tph. When taken together with the virtual capacity increase provided by increased the Rugby to London fast trains this comes to an enormous capacity increase, at least 50% on 2019 levels, at no capital costs once the timetable has been recast. You described that as "nothing" just now, in order to make it appear that you personally are hard done to by HS2. So yes I contend that you are being thoroughly disengenous. What are you gonna do about it?

If you want to go into a minute-by-minute analysis you need to make a new thread to do it in.

 

[A0wen]

You are obsessed with journey times between Northampton and London in 10 - 15 years time. You've already been proven incorrect with your initial assertion that there's no benefit at all, and then incorrect again with your assertion that 4tph would be the upper limit of frequency when it is in fact at least 6tph. When taken together with the virtual capacity increase provided by increased the Rugby to London fast trains this comes to an enormous capacity increase, at least 50% on 2019 levels, at no capital costs once the timetable has been recast. You described that as "nothing" just now, in order to make it appear that you personally are hard done to by HS2. So yes I contend that you are being thoroughly disengenous. What are you gonna do about it?

Well, you haven't changed my mind.

I maintain Northamptonshire is being dug up for no benefit to the area.

And you've only focused on Norhampton. No improvements for King Sutton and West Northants which is being dug up for this.

And whether the capacity increase will be needed, given the drop in commuting and increase in remote working means that speed of journey is in many ways more important.

 

[Acfb]

Well, you haven't changed my mind.

I maintain Northamptonshire is being dug up for no benefit to the area.

And you've only focused on Norhampton. No improvements for King Sutton and West Northants which is being dug up for this.

And whether the capacity increase will be needed, given the drop in commuting and increase in remote working means that speed of journey is in many ways more important.

There are some noisy NIMBYs in South Northamptonshire although not that many and most of the fuss was around Greatworth IIRC. I don't see how it affects Brackley at all (with HS2 passing immediately to the north of the town). Kings Sutton could get more stopping services post HS2 as there won't be as much need for people to use it beyond Warwick with nearly everyone from Solihull going to Birmingham Interchange instead.

 

[Watershed]

No improvements for King Sutton

Do we know that for sure?

I'm not sure that Kings Sutton warrants much more than an hourly stopping service to London, but Chiltern will no longer need to be oriented as strongly towards the Birmingham market as the WCML "classic" trains will serve the budget market instead.

That will give them the flexibility to do things like increasing the number of calls at Kings Sutton in Birmingham semifasts.

which is being dug up for this

The same could be said about places like Castlethorpe and Roade, which suffer from the noise and inconvenience of having the WCML splitting their villages in two, but no station to benefit from it.

Yet I'm sure you quite enjoy making use of the WCML...

 

[Starmill]

I maintain Northamptonshire is being dug up for no benefit to the area.

I've set out facts based on the best available evidence at the moment. You've presented no alternative evidence and your initial statement is incorrect. If different evidence emerges in the future I will happily take that into consideration given we're discussing the long term. If you choose to ignore the best available evidence in favour of something else that's 100% your business not mine, but don't be too surprised if others take your contributions less seriously as a consequence. Why should I be bothered about changing your mind?

 

[The Planner]

Definitely work being done at what can be enhanced on the Northampton loop, whether that gets anywhere I can't say.

 

[NoRoute]

Reading this discussion, for me it is missing context, Northampton already has good services along the WCML, you can get to London, to Birmingham and the stations in between and onward from Birmingham upto the North West in a reasonable time with competitive journey times.

The major rail problem with Northampton is the lack of connectivity, look at it on the map, it is surrounded by towns and cities which you cannot get to by rail, or rather you can but the route involves so many changes and is so round-about it's not viable, that's the major issue with rail services at Northampton, rail just isn't viable for many journeys.

Does HS2 help Northampton? Well it might offer some minor improvements to an already good service to the existing destinations along the WCML, but it doesn't unlock any new journeys, it doesn't connect Northampton to the rest of the East Midlands, or any new towns or cities, or open up any new journeys, it is in no way transformational, it's a small and marginal impact at best.

For Northampton, it will be the M1 Motorway which continues to provide it with connectivity to the rest of the East Midlands.

 

[A0wen]

I've set out facts based on the best available evidence at the moment. You've presented no alternative evidence and your initial statement is incorrect. If different evidence emerges in the future I will happily take that into consideration given we're discussing the long term. If you choose to ignore the best available evidence in favour of something else that's 100% your business not mine, but don't be too surprised if others take your contributions less seriously as a consequence. Why should I be bothered about changing your mind?

Evidence for journey time improvements?

Can't see it. Yet I set out a clear explanation as to why the proposals in the HS2 Phase 1 Business Case don't offer any journey time improvements.

Reading this discussion, for me it is missing context, Northampton already has good services along the WCML, you can get to London, to Birmingham and the stations in between and onward from Birmingham upto the North West in a reasonable time with competitive journey times.

The major rail problem with Northampton is the lack of connectivity, look at it on the map, it is surrounded by towns and cities which you cannot get to by rail, or rather you can but the route involves so many changes and is so round-about it's not viable, that's the major issue with rail services at Northampton, rail just isn't viable for many journeys.

Does HS2 help Northampton? Well it might offer some minor improvements to an already good service to the existing destinations along the WCML, but it doesn't unlock any new journeys, it doesn't connect Northampton to the rest of the East Midlands, or any new towns or cities, or open up any new journeys, it is in no way transformational, it's a small and marginal impact at best.

For Northampton, it will be the M1 Motorway which continues to provide it with connectivity to the rest of the East Midlands.

It's been done to death on other threads why other destinations aren't what Northampton needs - but improved London and Birmingham journey times are.

 

[Starmill]

Evidence for journey time improvements?

You said there are "no benefits". You were wrong. Just accept it and move on.