Donald Trump and the aftermath of his presidency

[najaB]

This of course being almost the same choice they had in 2016 and that didn't quite go as we might have hoped!

Never forget: Hillary won the election by over 3 million votes.

 

[ainsworth74]

Never forget: Hillary won the election by over 3 million votes.

How can I? If nothing else it's a fun stick to beat Trump with

Still thought the reason that he won, the Electoral College, still exists and so the same undemocratic result could easily happen. I suppose would shouldn't be that surprised, after all, it's possible to win (if unlikely) with just 22% of the popular vote:

 

[najaB]

Still thought the reason that he won, the Electoral College, still exists and so the same undemocratic result could easily happen.

A simple reform that could make the process much, much more democratic would be to split the electors for a state based on that state's results rather than it being winner takes all. You'd still have the issue that votes in big states are "worth less" but at least the winning candidate would actually have to win with decent-sized majorities in the smaller states.

Our FPTP system has issues but the electoral college is so much worse.

 

[Typhoon]

Never forget: Hillary won the election by over 3 million votes.

So Biden may have to win by more!

 

[najaB]

So Biden may have to win by more!

Well, as the video @ainsworth74 posted above shows, it is possible to become president with just 22% of the popular vote. However, realistically speaking, Trump has to win the swing vote in the key midwest states that went for him in 2016. At the moment he's trailing in all of them. His campaign is seriously underwater and he has to change if he is going to turn it around.

However, "Trump" and "change" aren't words that go together often as far as I've seen.

 

[RichT54]

Well, as the video @ainsworth74 posted above shows, it is possible to become president with just 22% of the popular vote. However, realistically speaking, Trump has to win the swing vote in the key midwest states that went for him in 2016. At the moment he's trailing in all of them. His campaign is seriously underwater and he has to change if he is going to turn it around.

However, "Trump" and "change" aren't words that go together often as far as I've seen.

Yes, I think you are right. He'll just double-down on all his outrageous lies, insults, and far right rhetoric. No doubt it'll stir his fan base into a frenzy, but hopefully will turn off the undecided. However various groups, including the Russians, who benefit from having Trump as president, will no doubt be flooding social media with all the misinformation they can manufacture and that will distort the picture and mislead many. This campaign will be even more toxic and repulsive than the last, I just pray for all our sakes that he doesn't get elected again.

 

[Busaholic]

Well, as the video @ainsworth74 posted above shows, it is possible to become president with just 22% of the popular vote. However, realistically speaking, Trump has to win the swing vote in the key midwest states that went for him in 2016. At the moment he's trailing in all of them. His campaign is seriously underwater and he has to change if he is going to turn it around.

However, "Trump" and "change" aren't words that go together often as far as I've seen.

I was dismayed to hear on the BBC World Service last night that the Dow Jones Index had registered one of its highest ever monthly rises in April: dismayed because I thought that increased the chances of the Big Baby's re-election. That was at 1.30 a.m. London time, and may have been prerecorded, but by close in NY the index was down over 600 points on the day, which at least wiped out the week's gains.

 

[najaB]

I was dismayed to hear on the BBC World Service last night that the Dow Jones Index had registered one of its highest ever monthly rises in April: dismayed because I thought that increased the chances of the Big Baby's re-election.

Not really. It would take several months of record gains just to get back to where it was at the start of the year. Plus, I think that it's becoming clear to the average voter that stock market indicies have very little impact on their real economy. Now, if he manages to get the 20+ million newly unemployed workers back into jobs by November then we might have something to worry about.

 

[Cowley]

Quite pleasing to see Twitter taking a (albeit minor) stand against Trump...
Is there a chance he could get banned at some point for being abusive towards the platform?
I’ve never been on it so I’m not really sure how far you can push things. But I assume that they’d far rather he was using them than a competitor?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52815552

“A post by US President Donald Trump has been given a fact-check label by Twitter for the first time.

Mr Trump tweeted, without providing evidence: "There is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent."

Twitter put a warning label in the post and linked to a page that described the claims as "unsubstantiated".

President Trump responded by tweeting again, saying the social media giant "is completely stifling free speech".

For years, Twitter has faced criticism for not acting on the president's controversial tweets, which include personal attacks on political rivals and debunked conspiracy theories. This month the platform introduced a new policy on misleading information amid the coronavirus pandemic.”

 

[nlogax]

Trump's got a problem here. To reach his base and get his message out he needs Twitter a fair bit more than Twitter needs him. His reaction is pretty typical of course..biting the social media hand that feeds him.

 

[Darandio]

Not surprisingly Trump doesn't fancy going ahead with the November election.

Donald Trump suggests delay to 2020 US presidential election

The US president cites concern over mail-in voting, despite little evidence of widespread fraud.

www.bbc.co.uk

Donald Trump has called for November's presidential election to be postponed, saying increased postal voting could lead to fraud and inaccurate results.

He suggested a delay until people can "properly, securely and safely" vote.

There is little evidence to support Mr Trump's claims but he has long railed against mail-in voting which he has said would be susceptible to fraud

US states want to make postal voting easier due to public health concerns over the coronavirus pandemic.

In a tweet, Mr Trump said "universal mail-in voting" would make November's vote the "most inaccurate and fraudulent election in history" and a "great embarrassment to the USA".

Earlier this month, six US states were planning to hold "all-mail" ballot elections this November: California, Utah, Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon and Washington.

These states will automatically send postal ballots to all registered voters, which then have to be sent back or dropped off on election day - although some in-person voting is still available in certain limited circumstances.

About half of US states allow any registered voter to vote by post on request.

Critics of postal voting argue that people could vote more than once via absentee ballots and in person. Mr Trump has in the past said there was a risk of "thousands and thousands of people sitting in somebody's living room, signing ballots all over the place".

However, there is no evidence of widespread fraud, according to numerous nationwide and state-level studies over the years.

 

[ainsworth74]

I find myself in a rather bizarre state of shock that this is a real headline and something that's actually been said. But also not at all surprised that we now find ourselves here.

 

[najaB]

Not surprisingly Trump doesn't fancy going ahead with the November election.

That would require a constitutional amendment. Good luck getting two thirds of the States to agree to that. Before November.

 

[AM9]

I find myself in a rather bizarre state of shock that this is a real headline and something that's actually been said. But also not at all surprised that we now find ourselves here.

I wonder if Trump is not only getting worried about losing the election but more importantly, does he fear that he will be taken to court, (civil and criminal) for so many of his actions in the last four years. Maybe someone here with knowledge of what protection from prosecution an ex-president is afforded in the US constitution could inform us.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Hahaha! English translation: "Help! I don't wanna stop being president! No-one told me when I took the job that it wasn't a life-long position! *wail* *sob* And last time we had elections those nasty democrats stole some Congress seats *more wailing* Someone please find me an excuse to cancel all further elections.'

 

[Typhoon]

The Trumps don't seem to have got the hang of postal voting.

[First Lady Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump, and her husband (and presidential adviser) Jared Kushner applied to file absentee ballots in New York’s mayoral election on 7 November 2017, but their votes weren’t counted because of mistakes they made when filing, the New York Daily News has reported.

Citing officials at the New York City Board of Elections (BOE), the report said Melania Trump failed to sign the envelope containing her ballot as required, Ivanka Trump mailed in her ballot too late to be counted (per the instructions on the ballot application, it must be mailed no later than the seventh day before the election), and Jared Kushner never mailed his at all. Each of these errors is sufficient to render a ballot invalid, a Board of Elections official told the Daily News.

BOE spokeswoman Valerie Vazquez confirmed to NBC News on 12 December that Melania and Ivanka Trump’s ballots were “invalid and not counted.”

President Trump, who also voted by absentee ballot, properly signed the envelope and mailed it on time, but listed the wrong birthdate (July 14, 1946 instead of June 14), the Daily News said. It remains unclear whether this prevented Trump’s vote from being counted.

The Trump family’s votes weren’t crucial to the outcome of the election, which Democratic incumbent Bill de Blasio won by a substantial margin (with 66.9 percent of the vote) over Republican challenger Nicole Malliotakis. President Trump has been a vocal critic of de Blasio.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...rs-botched-nyc-mayor-votes-thrown-out-n828861

 

[John Hunt]

There is a lot of stuff about what a president can and cannot do, also what protection a president or ex-president has from prosecution.
Various sources including Congress (huge PDF), CNN, New York Times and Wikipedia.
Where does one start?

 

[najaB]

Maybe someone here with knowledge of what protection from prosecution an ex-president is afforded in the US constitution could inform us.

Short version: none. Unless he manages to get his successor to pardon him. President Pence at 11am, Jan 20th 2021?

 

[nlogax]

This keeps coming up, mainly because Trump is so predictable and many people saw this sort of tactic being posited months and months ago. The answer as to whether he can move the election is an almost universal 'nope'.

https://www.democracydocket.com/2020/07/no-trump-cannot-move-the-general-election/

"No, Trump Cannot Move the General Election
By Marc Elias on July 30, 2020
Originally Posted: March 31, 2020
We are three months into a major presidential election year and in the middle of a global pandemic. Not surprisingly, I am getting a lot of questions — from family, friends, reporters, political consultants, even from Members of Congress — about the impact that all of this may have on our elections. But there is one question that I get asked more than any other: is there any way—at all—that Trump can legally cancel or postpone the November General Election?

The answer is clearly no.

The president has no legal authority to change the date of federal elections — period. And though one court — one time — found that a congressional election, in part of one state, could be postponed by a few weeks, the circumstances under which the court found that was warranted does not apply in 2020 and could never apply to the office of the president."

 

[AM9]

Short version: none. Unless he manages to get his successor to pardon him. President Pence at 11am, Jan 20th 2021?

I was thinking that Trump might be an ex-president because he lost the 2020 Presidential election, - in which case it would be up to Biden to pardon him. Mmm, some hope.

 

[najaB]

I was thinking that Trump might be an ex-president because he lost the 2020 Presidential election, - in which case it would be up to Biden to pardon him. Mmm, some hope.

The scenario I was considering is that Biden wins, and Trump resigns an hour before the inauguration so that Pence can pardon him.

 

[brad465]

News today is US GDP dropped 32.9%, at the very least I suspect Trump has said this as a distraction from that news, regardless of how much he believes delaying the election can be achieved.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The scenario I was considering is that Biden wins, and Trump resigns an hour before the inauguration so that Pence can pardon him.

That would be worrying in a way. I wonder though how likely that is... after all, from a legal point of view, Trump hasn't yet been found guilty of any crimes, so there isn't (yet) anything to pardon him for. I'm sure Biden and the Democrats could subsequently launch investigations, and I'm pretty sure those would turn up a lot of evidence of corruption, but of course that would be too late for a Pence pardon. Also, Biden might be reluctant to do that because of wanting to be seen to be getting on with governing the country rather than tying up resources on what many would see as settling old scores.

Perhaps a more worrying (and much more plausible) scenario is that, if Trump loses in November, he then proceeds to spend the final two months of his presidency doing everything he can to wreck whatever plans Biden might have, deliberately working to leave the country in as bad a state as he can, while simultaneously getting his staff to destroy whatever records they can that might have incriminated him for crimes and mismanagement while he was President.

 

[najaB]

I wonder though how likely that is... after all, from a legal point of view, Trump hasn't yet been found guilty of any crimes, so there isn't (yet) anything to pardon him for.

Neither had Nixon.

 

[Busaholic]

A safe house in Moskva awaits him? He wouldn't be the first Donald to make the move there from Washington, either. cf Donald Maclean.

 

[ainsworth74]

A safe house in Moskva awaits him? He wouldn't be the first Donald to make the move there from Washington, either. cf Donald Maclean.

I do think that that might get quite good odds. I suspect, if he loses, he'll either spend the months afterwards spreading as much muck as possible about it being rigged before finally refusing to take part in the inauguration on 20 January and possibly camping out in the White House (necessitating his physical removal) or setting up some sort of "President in exile" in Mar-a-Largo (or similar) until he's finally arrested. But, I absolutely would not rule out him just jumping on a private jet at around 11am or so on the 20th and fly for Moscow (though how warm his welcome would actually be is anyone's guess).

 

[Busaholic]

I do think that that might get quite good odds. I suspect, if he loses, he'll either spend the months afterwards spreading as much muck as possible about it being rigged before finally refusing to take part in the inauguration on 20 January and possibly camping out in the White House (necessitating his physical removal) or setting up some sort of "President in exile" in Mar-a-Largo (or similar) until he's finally arrested. But, I absolutely would not rule out him just jumping on a private jet at around 11am or so on the 20th and fly for Moscow (though how warm his welcome would actually be is anyone's guess).

There have probably been very few spies/agents whose presence in the USSR, as was, or Russia now was genuinely welcomed, and many became disillusioned. Kim Philby was, as ever, possibly the exception to this rule, but then he was almost certainly a more complex character than most of the others put together.

 

[nlogax]

A safe house in Moskva awaits him? He wouldn't be the first Donald to make the move there from Washington, either. cf Donald Maclean.

One thing is almost certain; should he lose he's unlikely to appear at events which would usually include a clutch of ex presidents on the speaker list.. memorials, funerals, apolitical campaign launches. Invites may be extended to him out of tradition and courtesy but he's burned so many bridges with nearly everyone over the last four years and there's no way in hell he'd dare to show his orange face at anything. In terms of his legacy he'll surely be the President that History Conveniently Sidelined.

 

[Typhoon]

That would be worrying in a way. I wonder though how likely that is... after all, from a legal point of view, Trump hasn't yet been found guilty of any crimes, so there isn't (yet) anything to pardon him for. I'm sure Biden and the Democrats could subsequently launch investigations, and I'm pretty sure those would turn up a lot of evidence of corruption, but of course that would be too late for a Pence pardon. Also, Biden might be reluctant to do that because of wanting to be seen to be getting on with governing the country rather than tying up resources on what many would see as settling old scores.

If I was Biden, I wouldn't be looking at Trump; as you say, it looks like settling old scores. I would be tempted to quietly and surreptitiously see if there is dirt on Ivanka or Kushner, firstly because I don't think Trump is stupid (just pig-headed) so won't leave any dirt, but I think Kushner is. Secondly, it would hurt Trump more (as Biden would know after Trump made accusations about his own son).

 

[SteveM70]

If I was Biden, I wouldn't be looking at Trump; as you say, it looks like settling old scores. I would be tempted to quietly and surreptitiously see if there is dirt on Ivanka or Kushner, firstly because I don't think Trump is stupid (just pig-headed) so won't leave any dirt, but I think Kushner is. Secondly, it would hurt Trump more (as Biden would know after Trump made accusations about his own son).

And Eric Trump. Thick as mince