Driverless Cars - the future?

[Zoe]

And if the internet had been limited to libraries and internet cafes it probably wouldn't have taken off anything like as much as did because it was made available in your own home 24/7 (and now anywhere there is a mobile signal). You don't have to order access to the internet and then wait 5/10/15/20+ minutes (you've never really been clear on what sort of response time this central car system will have) before you can actually use it.

I would suggest that your comparison is flawed.

The point is that just as people are not used to the idea of it now and find it a strange concept, doesn't mean it isn't going to be the normal situation in the future. I don't think a short wait for a driverless car to turn up would be much of an issue, most people don't wait until they are out the door before deciding they are going to use a car.

 

[ainsworth74]

I don't think a short wait for a driverless car to turn up would be much of an issue.

How long will this wait be? 1 minute? 5 minutes? 10 minutes? 15 minutes? What if I want to travel at 0730 when everyone is going to work will it still be a short wait? Or how about 1700 when everyone is going home? Where will all these cars be stored when they're not being used? How many bases are there going to be to support them? Who is going to pay for this infrastructure to be developed and built (a negative that you ascribe to electric personal cars yet seemingly doesn't apply here)? Zoe you keep banging on about this point that driverless cars that you summon are the future but you continue to fail to provide any details at all about how such a system will work. You have yet to answer at all (let alone with certainty) how long I could expect to wait for one of these cars to arrive and take me to my destination (when remember I can be in my own car and driving in less than a minute).

 

[Zoe]

You have yet to answer at all (let alone with certainty) how long I could expect to wait for one of these cars to arrive and take me to my destination (when remember I can be in my own car and driving in less than a minute).

You would likely decide that you are going somewhere more than a minute before you do though. The length of time you would wait for a car to arrive would likely depend on demand at the time but even a fifteen minute wait is really not that bad when you consider the savings in resources to be had.

 

[ainsworth74]

You would likely decide that you are going somewhere more than a minute before you do though.

Perhaps but then there's times I realise I've run out of milk for example and the nearest open shop is the 24 hour Tesco which is definetly not a walk down the street away. So given the choice between either waiting 15 minutes (thanks for the estimate) or jumping in my car, well it isn't really a choice.

The length of time you would wait for a car to arrive would likely depend on demand at the time but even a fifteen minute wait is really not that bad when you consider the savings in resources to be had.

You see the problem here is that people don't give a damn about whether it's a good use of resources or not. We want convenience and your system with it's fifteen minute delays (maybe even longer at busy times) does not even approach that. And don't bother coming back with the whole 'well in the future perhaps you won't be allowed to drive' because as long as we live in a democratic society that is not going to happen (annoying I know, but unfortunately in democracies the majority tends to get what it wants).

 

[Zoe]

unfortunately in democracies the majority tends to get what it wants).

I don't think the majority wanted a war with Iraq in 2003, there are times when governments do things that are unpopular and where there may well be a case for doing just this where there are clear safety and environmental benefits. Even if there was no legislation, market forces may well make driving unaffordable for most people as we are starting to see now.

 

[43021HST]

Cars that arrive every fifteen minutes? Sounds like a glorified bus system, wouldnt it just be better then to invest in driverless buses and phase the car out.

 

[Zoe]

Cars that arrive every fifteen minutes? Sounds like a glorified bus system, wouldnt it just be better then to invest in driverless buses and phase the car out.

No, these would be called on demand. They wouldn't turn up if no-one had called one. It would be possible though to extend the concept so that if several people in the area wanted to go to similar destinations then a driverless bus could turn up.

 

[ainsworth74]

I don't think the majority wanted a war with Iraq in 2003, there are times when governments do things that are unpopular and where there may well be a case for doing just this where there are clear safety and environmental benefits.

Yes hence my use of the word "tends". You should also note that starting the 2003 War in Iraq was never likely to cause the Government to lose the next election. Banning people from driving however almost certainly would because people like driving (and all the convenience that goes with it) and as I've said before people don't give a damn about the best use of resources or if its better for the environment. A government that banned driving would almost certainly get hammered at the next elections (and the opposition would be stupid if they didn't campaign on reinstating that right).

Even if there was no legislation, market forces may well make driving unaffordable for most people as we are starting to see now.

As others have said there will almost certainly be alternatives developed to cars that run on fossil fuels that will enable most people to continue driving.

Also how about addressing some of the other points that have been raised by myself (and even some of those raised by others) rather than just picking and choosing.

 

[Zoe]

Also how about addressing some of the other points that have been raised by myself (and even some of those raised by others) rather than just picking and choosing.

People may well just have to get used to the idea that they can't press a button and have a car appear instantly. Demand is clearly going to be higher at certain times of the day but longer waits at these times may not be too bad as they would encourage people to use public transport or travel at less busy times. To minimize these waiting times there may well be some cars that sit around unused off peak but this still has to be a much more efficient use of resources than having almost all cars sitting outside houses or in car parks most the the time except when one specific person wants to use them. Cars could be stored at strategic locations when not in use so they could respond to a call without having to travel further than they need to. In large buildings elevators tend to idle on certain floors so they can best respond to a call.
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As others have said there will almost certainly be alternatives developed to cars that run on fossil fuels that will enable most people to continue driving.

See my post above on this, electric cars are not yet ready to fully take over and it seems it will be some time until they do. The cost of driving is also not just about fuel, insurance is very expensive these days.

 

[ainsworth74]

See my post above on this, electric cars are not yet ready to fully take over and it seems it will be some time until they do. The cost of driving is also not just about fuel, insurance is very expensive these days.

Yes because driverless cars are so much closer to being deployed on a wide scale. Tell my how many production driverless cars are there available on the market right now that I could buy? Will it take time for electric cars to mature? Yes. Will it be longer than driverless? I doubt it.

Which points exactly?

How about this one:

You would likely decide that you are going somewhere more than a minute before you do though. The length of time you would wait for a car to arrive would likely depend on demand at the time but even a fifteen minute wait is really not that bad when you consider the savings in resources to be had.

Perhaps but then there's times I realise I've run out of milk for example and the nearest open shop is the 24 hour Tesco which is definetly not a walk down the street away. So given the choice between either waiting 15 minutes (thanks for the estimate) or jumping in my car, well it isn't really a choice.

Your contention that people decide in advance when they want to go somewhere, my response is that not always. I've not seen a comment on that. Do you agree with my statement? In which case you must also agree that you system would likely be unpopular as it would remove convenience from the ordinary person? And seeing as people really do care about the freedom that driving gives them, you surely must realize that any government that tried to ban driving would be doomed?

Or how about these ones:

(like where they go when not in use, the fuel wasted to have them going backwards and forwards, what happens when they're vandalised, someone throws up in one etc etc)

Or another one by myself:

Who is going to pay for this infrastructure to be developed and built (a negative that you ascribe to electric personal cars yet seemingly doesn't apply here)?

 

[GB]

Zoe, how does the loss of £millions per year in road tax and VAT factor into your utopian world?

No government in their right mind will get rid of private vehicles in favour of complete automation on a demand by demand basis. Also, how does complete automation factor into the road haulage industry?

 

[Zoe]

Your contention that people decide in advance when they want to go somewhere, my response is that not always. I've not seen a comment on that. Do you agree with my statement? In which case you must also agree that you system would likely be unpopular as it would remove convenience from the ordinary person? And seeing as people really do care about the freedom that driving gives them, you surely must realize that any government that tried to ban driving would be doomed?

It may well not be as convenient as the private car is today but I really don't think a short wait for a car to turn up is much of a problem, certainly not when you consider there can be a 30 minute wait on some bus routes. It may well be an unpopular idea but when you consider the safety benefits it's quite clear that it would be a superior system.

 

[GB]

Safety benefits? The technology has not been proven...certainly not to any significant scale, so what evidence have you got that says it will be any safer?

How much automation do airliners have? Do they still crash?

 

[Zoe]

Zoe, how does the loss of £millions per year in road tax and VAT factor into your utopian world?

It would be possible to tax these journeys. It would be a charge at the point of use so may well help to level the playing field with public transport.

No government in their right mind will get rid of private vehicles in favour of complete automation on a demand by demand basis. Also, how does complete automation factor into the road haulage industry?

You may well think that now but times change. Back in the 1960s it was thought that the car was the future of transport and many motorways were built. Only now is it realized that you can't keep building your way out of congestion and that there should be a modal shift to public transport. As for the road haulage industry, driverless trucks are certainly a possibility but they may well need to be a member of staff on board for security reasons although they would not have to drive.
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Safety benefits? The technology has not been proven...certainly not to any significant scale, so what evidence have you got that says it will be any safer?

Just look how far technology has advanced in the last 25 years and consider how much better computers will likely be in 25 years time.

 

[jon0844]

You have yet to answer at all (let alone with certainty) how long I could expect to wait for one of these cars to arrive and take me to my destination (when remember I can be in my own car and driving in less than a minute).

Zoe also seems to think that these driverless vehicles don't need any energy to run. So, while someone with an electric car in the future won't be able to afford it because electricity prices will go up, they somehow won't be expected to pay for the electricity that powers the vehicle they just ordered (including the energy used to get the vehicle TO that person before they've gone anywhere).

Oh, and if you book that driverless car at 7am when everyone is off to work, how does it negotiate traffic? However clever it is, it isn't going to be able to fly over it. So you might find yourself waiting ages. A good excuse though 'Sorry, my car didn't turn up'...

 

[ainsworth74]

You know what I typed out a response but I'm not going to bother posting because it seems Zoe, that you are incapable of responding to the point's I and others have questioned you on. You either ignore them or evade them. I have better things to do with my time than argue with you about something that is not going to happen. I bid you a pleasant evening.

 

[starrymarkb]

My main concern would be about the loss of manual motoring and awareness skills among drivers operators. All modern passenger airliners are quite capable of flying themselves on autopilot and detecting problems, during most phases of flight. While this has brought about immense benefits in reducing human misjudgments and mistakes, systems can and will fail no matter how sophisticated they are. Several accidents and incidents have been officially attributed to or partially attributed to pilots relying too much on the automation and not using manual skills to detect and correct issues swiftly enough.

This has led to scrutiny from regulatory bodies and subsequent enhancement of manual skills training. Too much motoring automation could easily cause similar issues. Unless you're going to have dedicated segregated infrastructure and remote observation like the DLR (and similar) or PRT systems, it's questionable how far motor automation can go before drivers simply become passive occupants and cannot manually take control to urgently avoid crashing.

I sometimes wonder if the AF447 guys thought the Automation would have intervened to save them (but with unreliable airspeed readouts the full Alpha Floor protections would not have engaged).

Yet in the Hudson River the Automation helped immensely as it allowed the crew to search for a site and plan for a safe water landing

 

[jon0844]

I don't think the majority wanted a war with Iraq in 2003, there are times when governments do things that are unpopular and where there may well be a case for doing just this where there are clear safety and environmental benefits. Even if there was no legislation, market forces may well make driving unaffordable for most people as we are starting to see now.

Market forces may see driving becoming even more expensive (yet higher fuel prices is what is leading the development of ever cleaner and more efficient engines, electric power and other fuels) but people will still do it until it becomes illegal to do so. Just like they continue to drink and smoke.

And if a Government attempted to make it illegal, I think it's one thing that might spark a civil war in the UK, and other countries. I really do.

Go ahead hundreds of years and you might find people have no choice - but you've been talking about 10 years.

I also believe that you can forget about calling up a car; you'll simply own one yourself and use it just as you use a car now. Whether you drive it or it drives itself, most people won't be wanting to wait for a car to turn up that might even be damaged or dirty inside. What about if you had children and needed a child seat(s)? What about packing in a wheelchair, or suitcases.

Will these cars not only be all over the place to be no more than 15 minutes away but also with a fleet of different sized vehicles to cater for groups and so on?

BTW; you keep on saying insurance is so expensive these days, but is it? Maybe for a young driver, or for someone who has had an accident and lost their no-claims - but my premiums haven't shot up much in recent years. In fact, by shopping around I've managed to keep paying about the same every year. In any case, insurance is probably a tiny part of the running costs of a car (again, unless you're 17 and living in a dodgy area with a car parked on the street, and driving an ageing boy racer mobile with bodykits, alloys etc) compared to servicing, VED and fuel. How much would it cost to service a driverless car?

I'm also assuming at some point in time, the Government will legislate certain safety standards and require regular checks to ensure they're compliant. I doubt your mechanic mate is going to be able to service them either. Even if you don't own one of them yourself, you'll still be expecting to pay towards these costs.

 

[Zoe]

Oh, and if you book that driverless car at 7am when everyone is off to work, how does it negotiate traffic? However clever it is, it isn't going to be able to fly over it. So you might find yourself waiting ages. A good excuse though 'Sorry, my car didn't turn up'...

You are assuming people are all going to be commuting as they do now. Even if this is still the case there would be less likely be less delays as a driverless system would be more efficient. There is also the possibility that the system could easily arrange vehicle sharing and so reduce the number of vehicles on the road.
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You know what I typed out a response but I'm not going to bother posting because it seems Zoe, that you are incapable of responding to the point's I and others have questioned you on. You either ignore them or evade them. I have better things to do with my time than argue with you about something that is not going to happen. I bid you a pleasant evening.

I can't respond to everyone at the same time as many people are posting on this thread. I have actually responded to one of your points above.

 

[GB]

What exactly are you basing all this on? You seem to be arguing your opinion as tho it is a fact....sorry, but untill more substantial trials are done it is all supposition.

 

[Zoe]

I also believe that you can forget about calling up a car; you'll simply own one yourself and use it just as you use a car now. Whether you drive it or it drives itself, most people won't be wanting to wait for a car to turn up that might even be damaged or dirty inside. What about if you had children and needed a child seat(s)? What about packing in a wheelchair, or suitcases.

If people still owned the cars then some would still want to drive them although the very high cost of insurance could take car of that. With a call on demand system though there would be no choice. As for child seats and luggage, these could be included in the car and robotically moved into place when needed. Should a car by soiled then this could be detected and the car taken out of service to be cleaned and the users fined/prosecuted.

Will these cars not only be all over the place to be no more than 15 minutes away but also with a fleet of different sized vehicles to cater for groups and so on?

As I say, vehicles will be placed at strategic locations so they can best respond to the call. Different types of vehicles would be available.

 

[jon0844]

It may well not be as convenient as the private car is today but I really don't think a short wait for a car to turn up is much of a problem, certainly not when you consider there can be a 30 minute wait on some bus routes. It may well be an unpopular idea but when you consider the safety benefits it's quite clear that it would be a superior system.

How many vehicles are registered in the UK with the DVLA (excluding foreign vehicles).

Do we now need a company to build all of these, plus some spare for those who might now use them because they're there - when they either didn't travel before, or used a bus, taxi etc?

Will we get a 'ROSCO' to fund 10, 20 or 30 million of these? And given you need them quite close to people, probably a fair few extra million on top to have them nearby. As they're used and abused by the public, how long until they need to be replaced again? 10, 20, 30 years? Will they last as long as a well maintained train?

My goodness - I'm barely trying and I'm thinking of more and more flaws every few minutes. By the time I stop, we'll all be living on the moon anyway.

 

[Zoe]

What exactly are you basing all this on? You seem to be arguing your opinion as tho it is a fact....sorry, but untill more substantial trials are done it is all supposition.

The point here is that you can't assume driving will always be a right once alternatives are available and I think the possibility of these alternatives should seriously be considered.
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How many vehicles are registered in the UK with the DVLA (excluding foreign vehicles).

You would need less vehicles than this though as they wouldn't all be sitting around doing nothing most of the time.

 

[GB]

Car seats moved into place "robotically"?? Ive heard it all now. Good night.

 

[jon0844]

You are assuming people are all going to be commuting as they do now.

Even as someone who is now has a full time job working from home, I don't believe people will be doing that in the future in any significant numbers.

For one, employers are generally distrusting of staff and staff also get disconnected from colleagues and can feel isolated. Oh, and it only suits certain jobs too. People may choose to work from home for their own personal reasons, but most will still have to commute one way or another. The best we could hope for are more flexible working hours to lessen the crushing during the peaks, and make better use of the off-peaks.

Now you might think that in the future, nobody will need to work and they can sit in the park talking to their kids about how they used to actually drive cars themselves, while using their smartphones with holographic projectors, but I doubt that this is going to happen anytime soon.

 

[90019]

It may well not be as convenient as the private car is today but I really don't think a short wait for a car to turn up is much of a problem, certainly not when you consider there can be a 30 minute wait on some bus routes. It may well be an unpopular idea but when you consider the safety benefits it's quite clear that it would be a superior system.

You don't think waiting for a car to turn up is a problem. Plenty of us do.


Out of interest, how exactly do you justify the massive waste of energy as these driverless cars go from wherever they're kept to where the person is waiting for them and then back between journies?
What would the procedure be for when one is soiled by an occupant, and how would you know if they don't report it?
How many will you need to make sure there's an adequate supply for all times?
What about if you call up and there isn't one available, what do you suggest?
Who will pay for them in the first place?
What happens when one breaks down?
What happens when the computer system fails and one goes out of control? What failsafe systems will be in place and will there be an override?
What happens when they run out of fuel?
What do you do if there's a puncture? How would a computer deal with a high speed blow out?
How exactly can these cars interact safely at all times with the unpredictable nature of cities and the people and animals that inhabit them?
If something runs out in front of one, how does it decide whether to slam on the anchors and risk injuring the occupants or carry on going and risk injuring/killing a person/animal on the road? Computers are good, but they're not infallible.


All in all, out of the future systems that have been suggested, this has to be one of the worst I've come across.

 

[ralphchadkirk]

Even as someone who is now has a full time job working from home, I don't believe people will be doing that in the future in any significant numbers.

And there are vast amounts of jobs where it is impossible to work from home.

Commuting always has, and always will play a very large part in the work life.

 

[90019]

If people still owned the cars then some would still want to drive them although the very high cost of insurance could take car of that.

No it wouldn't. People would just drive without insurance, same as some people do already.

With a call on demand system though there would be no choice. As for child seats and luggage, these could be included in the car and robotically moved into place when needed.

So, you'd have to waste excessive space within them just so you could carry all of the extras you might possibly need for any one journey?

Should a car by soiled then this could be detected and the car taken out of service to be cleaned and the users fined/prosecuted.

How?

As I say, vehicles will be placed at strategic locations so they can best respond to the call. Different types of vehicles would be available.

So you'd not only need a vast number of them in the first place, but you'd have to duplicate that with every type, so you have enough to cater for any volume of possible journies, therefore meaning you would have huge amounts of resource wastage.

What exactly are you basing all this on? You seem to be arguing your opinion as tho it is a fact....sorry, but untill more substantial trials are done it is all supposition.

You won't get an answer.
It's like asking if Zoe actually has a driving licence - you'd be more likely to get an answer out of the nearest brick wall.

 

[jon0844]

If people still owned the cars then some would still want to drive them although the very high cost of insurance could take car of that.

Can I ask what car you drive, what insurance group it is and how much you pay?

I pay £350 a year on a car with a 2.5ltr turbocharged engine. I don't see that as expensive at all. The £240 VED isn't that much* either (except I do very low mileage, so it works out more per-mile than for someone using a car every day). However, the £1.49 I paid last week for Super Unleaded IS a lot.

Insurance is NOT the reason people will get rid of their cars!

With a call on demand system though there would be no choice. As for child seats and luggage, these could be included in the car and robotically moved into place when needed. Should a car by soiled then this could be detected and the car taken out of service to be cleaned and the users fined/prosecuted.

And if the person fined denies any involvement?

And if the robotically moving child seat malfunctions, or doesn't lock into place properly?

In fact, if anything at all goes wrong with the vehicle - how does the person(s) report this fact? Will it have voice recognition (Siri or HAL style) to respond instantly, or will it require making a phone call or using a smartphone app.. and then what, waiting for a replacement vehicle to turn up?

As I say, vehicles will be placed at strategic locations so they can best respond to the call. Different types of vehicles would be available.

How many vehicles do you envisage being needed nationally, of different types, for every eventuality?

* Actually it is a lot - it's the highest, but I chose to buy the car I have and know I could have bought a more efficient engine.

 

[Zoe]

You don't think waiting for a car to turn up is a problem. Plenty of us do.

You may well think that but the reality of the situation is that it is not a problem in general, just a personal inconvenience to some people.

Out of interest, how exactly do you justify the massive waste of energy as these driverless cars go from wherever they're kept to where the person is waiting for them and then back between journies?

This would be offset by the number of cars in total that would need to be produced and maintained.

What would the procedure be for when one is soiled by an occupant, and how would you know if they don't report it?

It could be detected by sensors and reported automatically. It would also be a possibility to have the doors lock and the car drive the offenders straight to the police station.

How many will you need to make sure there's an adequate supply for all times?

There would be enough vehicles to meet the demand but this would still be less vehicles in total than everyone having their own.

What about if you call up and there isn't one available, what do you suggest?

There would be times when demand is exceptionally high that the wait could be longer, in which case you should book in advance.

Who will pay for them in the first place?

I don't expect the investment to be from a single source but considering the clear safety and environmental benefits I would expect some government investment. The developers of the technology are also likely to invest as they are set to benefit from its use.

What happens when one breaks down?

It would be automatically reported and responded to.

What happens when the computer system fails and one goes out of control? What failsafe
systems will be in place and will there be an override?

It wouldn't be a single computer system. You would have several computers working with each other and if there is an error in one then the remaining computers can vote it out. The chances of all of the computers failing at the same time would be extremely low.

What happens when they run out of fuel?

The vehicles are not likely to run our of fuel just like that as when you call one you would request it for a specific journey and it would ensure that it was had the fuel for the journey before it arrived.

What do you do if there's a puncture? How would a computer deal with a high speed blow out?
How exactly can these cars interact safely at all times with the unpredictable nature of cities and the people and animals that inhabit them?
If something runs out in front of one, how does it decide whether to slam on the anchors and risk injuring the occupants or carry on going and risk injuring/killing a person/animal on the road? Computers are good, but they're not infallible.

Humans are certainly not infallible and it's likely in the future that computers will be much more reliable and able to deal with the situation better than a human driver could.