Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

[alxndr]

I had to travel from Glasgow to Reading late last night, the trains were busier than I'd expected, maybe marginally quieter but not so that you'd really notice. I'm not planning to travel again until this is done with though, so maybe others will similarly stop moving around once they get to their homes (I was away prior to this becoming an issue in the UK).

If trains get cancelled it'll be good for maintenance though, as long as those doing the maintenance don't fall ill. We don't yet know how long the virus can survive on surfaces, if it's as long as some think (three days) then I dread how it might spread between us with one shared vehicle and the knock on effect that will have on keeping things moving if there's no one to maintain or repair the railway.

 

[SteelWeelApeal]

Ticket seller at Theale said he sold 40 this morning, normally around 250

 

[Killingworth]

My litmus test for the railways is how many of the 35 car parking spaces on Warren Road on the approach to Purley station are occupied. On a normal Monday it would be around 30; today it was just 7.

Dore & Totley had 8 spaces at 12.00 this morning, out of 129. Normally rammed full and overflowing by 7.15 with over 100 parked nearby. Probably less than 50 nearby today, so possibly not quite as bad as at Purley. Not many going to Manchester Airport at present!

 

[Glenn1969]

Boris has just advised against all non essential travel and all non essential social contact and effectively banned mass gatherings. Take it train travel will suffer accordingly?

 

[Dave W]

I was travelling in the peak. Maybe the Victoria and Picc lines are more tourist orientated?

Quite. Imagine they’ll all be quieter as of tomorrow, but you never know.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Boris has just advised against all non essential travel and all non essential social contact and effectively banned mass gatherings. Take it train travel will suffer accordingly?

I'd imagine so given today's changed advice.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Quite. Imagine they’ll all be quieter as of tomorrow, but you never know.

Being as the Piccadilly line serves both a very major airport and the heart of the West End - serving major tourist destinations , a pretty obvious chance it will be much lighter , add into that the desire to work from home etc. This applies to all lines , which are around 20% down on patronage today and more to come ......

 

[Hadders]

My rail travels yesterday saw the trains much quieter than normal for a Monday. On the 07:20 from SVG to KGX the passengers were spread out more than normal along the 12 cars but I'd say about 25% fewer than normal. Same on the 18:12 return.

I suspect we'll see emergency timetables introduced pretty quickly - peak times into London with a very limited off peak service, for no other reason than to discourage people from travelling.

 

[SlimJim1694]

Boris has just advised against all non essential travel and all non essential social contact and effectively banned mass gatherings. Take it train travel will suffer accordingly?

He's telling people to avoid social contact but still keeping the schools open and not bothering to test anyone for Coronavirus even if they are showing symptoms, including people working in hospitals and care homes among the most vulnerable! With that in mind, any numbers given for infections in the UK are completely meaningless and all this guff about avoiding social contact means nothing when it's quite obviously being spread freely and unchecked in the UK anyway. With many healthy people around the world reporting none, or very mild, symptoms but still testing positive (actor Idris Elba for example), how can anyone possibly know what the reality is, or effectively stop it?

I can't visit my auntie in her care home because its locked down "to protect the residents" but the people that work there have kids still going to school and mixing with hundreds of other kids from hundreds of other homes (whose parents are still going to work) and then coming home and having close contact with their parents who are then going off to work in close contact with the most vulnerable - with absolutely zero testing in place for these staff whatsoever. When Boris said many loved ones are going to die he wasn't wrong!

How does this affect the railways? Well those who can work from home are obviously doing so, but for many people the option of working from home simply isn't there and the option of voluntarily taking unpaid leave will mean for some not eating and perhaps losing their home. Plus you also have to bear in mind that the UK does not have the resources to enforce any kind of lockdown and there will always be a significant number of the population who dont give a monkeys and wont follow the (contradictory) advice anyway. I've noticed a drop in passenger numbers but not as significant or of the doomsday proportions that some of the people on here seem to be reporting. I guess different areas of the country must be very different. Give it a couple of weeks and people will realise the whole business is unsustainable for anything more than the short term.

 

[MikeWM]

The 0948 Ely to London is quite a bit quieter today than on a usual Tuesday - though still a fair number of passengers on it.

(Probably will be one more down starting tomorrow, as I expect to be told to work from home from now on...)

 

[43066]

I think you would eliminate overtime and possibly need to cut working hours and by implication Pay - no different to the rest of the economy.

The idea that people can continue to be paid a full salary when the demand for services (not just transport) is falling across the economy is fanciful.

Common sense about mess rooms would be needed.

Unless I miss my mark they may not have a choice. As far as I'm aware if you're contracted to work, say, 35 hours per week then your employer pretty much has to either give you 35 hours of work or pay you for 35 hours of work. I am, of course, speaking in broad terms. If someone's contract makes provision for being laid off for a period of time or being given reduced hours for a period of time then those provisions could be used. Equally if you're on zero hours then clearly the employer doesn't have to give you work then either!

Sticking to the transport sector though I it was interesting that BA didn't tell it's staff "you will be taking unpaid leave" it asked them to take unpaid leave. I suspect that that's because BA don't have the choice as I rather suspect their staff contracts don't have provisions for them to force them to be laid off.

Obviously many contracts have variation clauses in them that allow an employer to change the contracted hours of work but that can take a bit of time to work through and in unionised industries like the railway or airlines isn't exactly a risk free option. Of course in an extreme you can obviously make staff redundant but that does then make it hard to ramp back up again on the other side of a temporary slow down as well as the industrial relations issues...

Agree with @ainsworth74 .

If we end up with a network-wide Sunday style timetable, which surely has to happen at some point, overtime will likely become unavailable (bad news for some!). But, if people report for work, they will expect to be paid their full basic salary according to their contracts - irrespective of whether there are services for them to drive.

These restrictions are only for a few months and at some point the full timetable (which needs MORE than the full complement of drivers to operate it, and relies heavily on overtime) will resume.

It’s a completely different situation to BA, or any other airline, which are commercial businesses. If a TOC goes bust the OLR will step in to operate it (and continue pay the staff, keep the lights on).

I expect quite a few traincrew to be sitting around spare over the next few months.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I understand that the decleration of WW2 in !939 led immediately to the closure of cinemas , theaters , football grounds etc , and the imposition of a national emergency passengers service on all 4 main line companies. (but not I think on the LPTB)

Both reversed fairly quickly , but the main line companies were not allowed to increase passenger services above the 1939 base for the duration. Bar of course many thousands of extra services run for the services.

We have sort of been here before.

 

[Tetchytyke]

the people that work there have kids still going to school

If the kids weren't in school then the care home staff would be at home looking after the kids instead!

 

[Killingworth]

I understand that the decleration of WW2 in !939 led immediately to the closure of cinemas , theaters , football grounds etc , and the imposition of a national emergency passengers service on all 4 main line companies. (but not I think on the LPTB)

Both reversed fairly quickly , but the main line companies were not allowed to increase passenger services above the 1939 base for the duration. Bar of course many thousands of extra services run for the services.

We have sort of been here before.

In 1939 there wasn't a virus quite likely to be caught by every single one of us within weeks. Some businesses were closed down immediately. Others over a longer period.

As an example, my father worked at the Lloyds Bank branches in Richmond and sometimes at Catterick Camp. Lloyds soon closed at Richmond (never to reopen) and Barclays closed their branch at Catterick Camp (reopened about 1968 and now closed again) in what seems to have been a reciprocal move. I know a lot of other small bank branches closed about that time.

As far as I can see railways were kept running with longer passenger trains on long distance routes - and probably less frequent on many services. Lines were needed not least because most homes and businesss were heated by coal that had to be taken to station goods yards across the nation - and most big factories were rail connected for raw materials in and finished goods out. Not like today where road transport can deal with most freight and passenger traffic.

Whatever, Dore & Totley total car parking today is probably down to about 80/90 against a normal of approaching 250. If it stays anything like that it will have severe repercussions for accounting purposes - and before long for capital projects as well as TOCs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

before long for capital projects as well as TOCs.

For all I'm in favour of HS2 generally, if the homeworking genie stays out of the bottle maybe we won't actually need it and the money will be better spent on economic stimulus?

 

[Killingworth]

For all I'm in favour of HS2 generally, if the homeworking genie stays out of the bottle maybe we won't actually need it and the money will be better spent on economic stimulus?

Goodbye Heathrow 3rd runway, and probably several smaller airports too. Some rebalancing of priorities all round.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Goodbye Heathrow 3rd runway, and probably several smaller airports too. Some rebalancing of priorities all round.

Indeed. It'll be painful for staff, but in my view a significant retrenchment of air travel would be a good thing for the environment.

 

[JonathanH]

For all I'm in favour of HS2 generally, if the homeworking genie stays out of the bottle maybe we won't actually need it and the money will be better spent on economic stimulus?

As you know the HS2 money is for HS2 or it doesn't exist (as some of it is from fare revenue or tax take from associated revenue etc) but I understand the point you are making.

 

[Purple Orange]

For all I'm in favour of HS2 generally, if the homeworking genie stays out of the bottle maybe we won't actually need it and the money will be better spent on economic stimulus?

I don’t know what type of work you do, but regular home working is obviously only feasible for those who work in an office, but even then it doesn’t properly work as a concept. Bringing people together to share ideas, discuss their work, develop new answers to problems is very important. Working from home is very inefficient compared to getting people face to face, or in an environment where video conferencing can take place, such as 5 people in a Manchester office on a VC with 5 people in the Birmingham and London offices. These type of meetings work very well.

 

[Triumph]

Being as the Piccadilly line serves both a very major airport and the heart of the West End - serving major tourist destinations , a pretty obvious chance it will be much lighter , add into that the desire to work from home etc. This applies to all lines , which are around 20% down on patronage today and more to come ......

TFL are changing over to a Saturday TT in the next few days, mind you that's not much different to a M-F just no peak hour extras.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What I find astonishing is that with the nation entering a period of unprecedented societal disruption which will severely affect the transport sector, this thread tucked away in "Allocations, Diagrams and Timetables" is all that the forum has to say about the matter.

Meanwhile, airlines, cruise ships, public events, entertainment, hospitality, tourism and sports (which all feed the railway), are all staring at an existential threat to their livelihoods.
Manufacturing faces supply chain issues (Vauxhall has already stopped work), and the retail side will take a big hit with nobody buying for many weeks.
The railway can hardly be immune.
Unlike other public services, it sailed through the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent austerity, protected by the long-term franchise agreements and NR's 5-year CP budgets.
This time it may not be so easy.
This isn't about juggling train formations to save a few bob here and there, it's about protecting the funding of the entire railway for the long term.

The whole tenor of government has changed in the last day or two.
Until now, it has been calm and measured, and working within the rules.
It is now in panic mode, and there will be unintended consequences.
Vast sums will be thrown at the public health issue, maybe to the detriment of public transport funds.
Some big announcements supporting the economy are apparently imminent.

I didn't think Grant Shapps was very reassuring on Sunday, when all he could say was that the government is "talking to" the TOCs about their franchise agreements, and "considering" what action it needed to take.
He does, of course, also have the air industry on his books, where for example Virgin Atlantic has cut 80% of services and placed many staff on unpaid leave for 3 months (to be funded over 6 months of reduced pay), plus a pay freeze and a reduction in pension contributions.
Airport staff and catering services will have little to do.
Airlines are cutting capital spend and deferring/cancelling orders where they can, impacting the manufacturers and their supply chains.
Is the railway ready for even a fraction of real world impact from the coronavirus?

 

[Killingworth]

Is the railway ready for even a fraction of real world impact from the coronavirus?

I sense we all know the answer, and that applies almost everywhere else, globally. That maybe why there's a shortage of bog rolls! But it's very far from funny.

 

[yorkie]

What I find astonishing is that with the nation entering a period of unprecedented societal disruption which will severely affect the transport sector, this thread tucked away in "Allocations, Diagrams and Timetables" is all that the forum has to say about the matter.....
?

Just to be clear there are loads of threads on the impact of the Coronavirus on this forum; this thread is specifically to discuss the timetable changes.

If you ever feel that you need to expand beyond the scope of a particular thread, please do create a thread yourself, except if one (or more!) already exists.

• Coronavirus.
  
• Coronavirus: government advice (currently against non-essential travel and gathering)
• Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?
• Emergency timetable to deal with coronavirus: what would you propose?
• TOC plans regarding advance tickets if destinations become no-go (Coronavirus)?
• Coronavirus ..the effect on train travel in Lombardy and Milan
• Coronavirus virus fears causing panic buying
• Could mandatory allocated seating be deployed during coronavirus outbreak?
• Coronavirus virus effect on Heritage lines Summer 2020
  

 

[mmh]

TFL are changing over to a Saturday TT in the next few days, mind you that's not much different to a M-F just no peak hour extras.

A big incentive for TFL doing that is no doubt their financial situation. Cutting any costs will be welcome to them, crisis or no crisis.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

As far as I can see railways were kept running with longer passenger trains on long distance routes - and probably less frequent on many services. Lines were needed not least because most homes and businesss were heated by coal that had to be taken to station goods yards across the nation - and most big factories were rail connected for raw materials in and finished goods out. Not like today where road transport can deal with most freight and passenger traffic.

An early victim was the withdrawal of both refreshment / dining cars and the few sleepers left running were only for "select" users , i.e the forces and senior civil servants and approved "managers" - strictly rationed. Some huge trains were run , one of our now deceased training officers as a very young LNER fireman had 20 bogies behind an A3 from Kings Cross to Leeds , a journey that took twice the timetabled schedule , and despite him working incredibly hard with a tender full of poor coal , stalled on the River Bridge at Peterborough , rescued by the station pilot and told to carry on ! .....Off topic , but worth recalling.

 

[bramling]

A big incentive for TFL doing that is no doubt their financial situation. Cutting any costs will be welcome to them, crisis or no crisis.

I’m not sure it will actually have that much impact on costs. In reality it will be necessary as staff numbers reduce.

Having said that it isn’t just a simple case of declaring a Saturday service is going to run on a given day. The duty schedules don’t match up, and with LU drivers not doing overtime that’s a significant issue to resolve.

I’m hearing they’re coming up to 10% of a depot known to me now off isolating. Clearly that’s going to start having a big effect on service. Interestingly my source comments that the list of names correlates *very* closely with those people who are notorious for having dubious attendance.

 

[Bald Rick]

A big incentive for TFL doing that is no doubt their financial situation. Cutting any costs will be welcome to them, crisis or no crisis.

Whilst reduce dservice will not do much to reduce costs, every little helps, as TfL are in trouble financially, very quickly.

 

[Class 170101]

It may well help the Central Line where the Stock is currently being re-tractioned isn't it?

In terms of freight may it help I wonder. One driver can move several containers unlike a lorry.

 

[Bald Rick]

It may well help the Central Line where the Stock is currently being re-tractioned isn't it?

In terms of freight may it help I wonder. One driver can move several containers unlike a lorry.

Freight is an absolute priority in these (unprecedented) circumstances.

 

[AndrewE]

Not being on a suburban (i.e. mainly commuter) line I am puzzled why people think a "Sunday timetable" is a suitable option. On Sundays the WCML has almost no trains in the morning but a full timetable for people going home after the weekend.
I imagine we will see a thinned-out weekday timetable posted at some stage, but Avanti's webpage just invites me to either buy a ticket or download a timetable which commenced 15th December!
NRE just says that there is currently "Major disruption to / from London Euston" but absolutely nothing about any amended timetable.
I can only conclude that the booked / advertised timetable is running tomorrow (apart from consequences of the current disruption.)