Drop in passenger numbers sees train services cut

[43055]

Robert Peston on the 5pm Downing Street conference has asked about the proposed increases of services come 11 to 18th May. Based of this letter that he has been sent from TSSA. Dominic Raab did not recognise this so who knows if this is true. All images are from Robert Peston's twitter.

 

[chris11256]

Will be interesting to see what happens this this. Obviously if true there'd need to be behind the scenes planning for a while before anything would be made public.

The timeline would put this within range of some kind of lockdown restriction changes come the next review.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Of course the railway will be planning for the possibility of this whether the Government have told them to or not.

Peston really is a fool.

 

[Meerkat]

I assume that if the unions think it is unsafe to work they will be happy for their members to be put on furloughed 80% pay, as per decisions on most of the rest of the British workforce?

 

[bramling]

I assume that if the unions think it is unsafe to work they will be happy for their members to be put on furloughed 80% pay, as per decisions on most of the rest of the British workforce?

I don't think any of the unions wish for their members not to work on the grounds of safety, however equally they rightly expect safeguards to be implemented with the aim of reducing any risk to as low as reasonably practicable.

It may well already be the case that those people off as a result of shielding will be furloughed.

 

[chris11256]

Tweet from RailBusiness UK that 'industry sources' have confirmed plannig for a significant increase of service from the 18th May.

https://twitter.com/RailbusinessUK/status/1253361173824704512

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UK: Despite an explicit denial of any proposals to increase passenger rail services when First Secretary of State Dominic Raab was questioned at the government’s daily coronavirus press briefing on April 22, industry sources confirm that train operating companies have been asked to prepare to reinstate a significant number of services from the 18th May

 

[westv]

Tweet from RailBusiness UK that 'industry sources' have confirmed plannig for a significant increase of service from the 18th May.

https://twitter.com/RailbusinessUK/status/1253361173824704512

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That could be 18/5 but extending further out if plans change.

 

[The Planner]

That could be 18/5 but extending further out if plans change.

You either do it or you don't for a specific date. You cannot start trying to implement something like that to stop half way without a lot of hassle.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You either do it or you don't for a specific date. You cannot start trying to implement something like that to stop half way without a lot of hassle.

Unfortunately that is how things will be and the railway will have to adapt, perhaps by designing timetables where adding/removing diagrams is workable, like the south WCML contingency plan, which means keep it simple, keep it clockface and keep everything non-interrelated (e.g. keep the WCML local service split at Northampton), as well as maxing out train lengths. Lockdown measures will have to be added and removed at very short notice over the coming months.

That simplicity may also add benefit by putting people off using trains if they don't need to, as that will still be needed for some time, by making the timetables a bit less attractive than normal.

For similar reasons I'd suggest that Advances should not be sold other than on the day of travel, otherwise a massive problem of changes and refunds is created.

 

[Meerkat]

How practical is a full service in the near future? Won’t dwell times be much longer as people aren’t so keen to crush round doors, and will be backing up onto the platform waiting for those annoying people who can’t just sit down then sort themselves out later?

 

[baz962]

How practical is a full service in the near future? Won’t dwell times be much longer as people aren’t so keen to crush round doors, and will be backing up onto the platform waiting for those annoying people who can’t just sit down then sort themselves out later?

Dwell times have improved. I have been early everywhere lately. People generally are spacing out along the platforms , although the other day I still had quite a few people using one door near the exit . but as it is still a lot less people , it didn't hold me up.

 

[bramling]

How practical is a full service in the near future? Won’t dwell times be much longer as people aren’t so keen to crush round doors, and will be backing up onto the platform waiting for those annoying people who can’t just sit down then sort themselves out later?

I think a full service will be out of the question for as long as there are large numbers of people shielded.

Dwell times I can’t see being an issue as I’d still expect numbers to be down, and hopefully we’ll see train lengths maxed out where possible.

One issue could be that any operating issues which happen to arise could take longer to resolve with social distancing considerations, reduced staff numbers and the like. For example, normally staff would assist an unwell person off a train, but they now won’t be able to do that as it means coming into too close contact.

Another difficulty is how things are managed with staff who need to travel on the cushions as part of their duty. No doubt middle and rear cabs will be used, but this isn’t always enough.

One final problem - we all need to remember that the current coterie of operating staff have been going flat out for a number of weeks now, in many cases doing extra work or working extra shifts in order to cover for those who are unavailable. Fatigue and energy-drain is already starting to be an issue in places, and whilst this is manageable when only running a skeletal service which isn’t stretching the infrastructure, a full service would be another matter entirely. For example, with the current level of service it might be possible to work around a failure without causing any noticeable impact, but a full service will often depend on all infrastructure being available. Likewise we haven’t had many train or asset failures nor passenger-related issues, all of which can probably be attributed to the reduced service and lightweight usage over the last few weeks.

An uplift in service is certainly achievable, but we’re nowhere near the point when a full weekday service could be brought back in overnight. There are a lot of issues which would need to be worked through, I’ve touched on a few of them above.

 

[Bletchleyite]

An uplift in service is certainly achievable, but we’re nowhere near the point when a full weekday service could be brought back in overnight. There are a lot of issues which would need to be worked through, I’ve touched on a few of them above.

Fortunately it's unlikely the lockdown will be released in one big bang. Indeed, I suspect the Government are watching the effect of recent voluntary reopenings (notably B&Q and some building sites) which of course they can't be blamed for

 

[bramling]

Fortunately it's unlikely the lockdown will be released in one big bang. Indeed, I suspect the Government are watching the effect of recent voluntary reopenings (notably B&Q and some building sites) which of course they can't be blamed for

There’s certainly been a big increase in road traffic these last couple of days. The motorway was not far short of normal traffic levels today, and it certainly didn’t look like key workers.

Is there any enforcement of the lockdown actually going on now?!

This is something to watch on the railways, as increased road use is one thing, but increased public transport usage for non-essential journeys is going to continue to be a problem.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This is something to watch on the railways, as increased road use is one thing, but increased public transport usage for non-essential journeys is going to continue to be a problem.

Agreed. That said, things like free parking, no congestion charge and a low oil price (as well as the Government having packed in saying not to drive) are going to mean that almost everyone who can drive to wherever they're going will do, I reckon.

 

[chris11256]

Agreed. That said, things like free parking, no congestion charge and a low oil price (as well as the Government having packed in saying not to drive) are going to mean that almost everyone who can drive to wherever they're going will do, I reckon.

I was talking about this with my wife earlier. Given the collapse in the cost of petrol it wouldn't be surprising if initially trains are avoided with people preferring the safety of their own cars, with passenger numbers going up relatively slowly.

 

[Meerkat]

Dwell times I can’t see being an issue as I’d still expect numbers to be down, and hopefully we’ll see train lengths maxed out where possible.

numbers won’t have to rise much before leaving and joining the train in two metre spaced lines becomes a dwell time isssue.
Plus there will be loads of “after you...” - are they distancing or waiting for me to go first?!

This is something to watch on the railways, as increased road use is one thing, but increased public transport usage for non-essential journeys is going to continue to be a problem.

Could they start off by requiring employer letters to use public transport to keep the numbers down and see how it goes?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could they start off by requiring employer letters to use public transport to keep the numbers down and see how it goes?

Not really, as some have to use it to shop.

 

[Meerkat]

Not really, as some have to use it to shop.

OK, so just say words to effect of “essential - work (as per employer’s letter or key worker ID) or other essential Activity without more local alternative“.

 

[JamesT]

There’s certainly been a big increase in road traffic these last couple of days. The motorway was not far short of normal traffic levels today, and it certainly didn’t look like key workers.

Is there any enforcement of the lockdown actually going on now?!

This is something to watch on the railways, as increased road use is one thing, but increased public transport usage for non-essential journeys is going to continue to be a problem.

There is no requirement that only Key Workers travel. If your employer hasn't been required to close and you can't work from home, then travelling to work is still a legitimate thing to do.

 

[bramling]

numbers won’t have to rise much before leaving and joining the train in two metre spaced lines becomes a dwell time isssue.
Plus there will be loads of “after you...” - are they distancing or waiting for me to go first?!

Could they start off by requiring employer letters to use public transport to keep the numbers down and see how it goes?

I don’t think that would work unfortunately, as it would prove hard to enforce. Thinking out of the box, I suppose you could do something outlandish like issue everyone with a special ID card to present when buying tickets, but this would only work at a proper ticket office window. With self-service machines off that would work as you could have a simple policy that no ID card = no ticket = can’t get through gatelines, which would dissuade your casual chancers enough to probably keep things manageable.

Problems though would be how this would work in areas where there are large numbers of unmanned or ungated stations, or for example on London Underground where there’s now a finely tiled wall where the ticket window used to be! Also there’s the further problem of how you cater for people doing essential non-work journeys. Whilst currently the publicity is intimating that provision is for key workers only, in reality there will be people using transport to get to things like hospital appointments. In some areas it may be necessary for essential shopping, for example to get to the next town.

How one differentiates (when more things are open) between Gladys going one stop into town to do some essential shopping and the stir-crazy Smith family taking the train for a day of retail therapy at somewhere like Meadowhall will be a difficult problem to reconcile.

 

[Meerkat]

I don’t think that would work unfortunately, as it would prove hard to enforce. Thinking out of the box, I suppose you could do something outlandish like issue everyone with a special ID card to present when buying tickets, but this would only work at a proper ticket office window. With self-service machines off that would work as you could have a simple policy that no ID card = no ticket = can’t get through gatelines, which would dissuade your casual chancers enough to probably keep things manageable.

Problems though would be how this would work in areas where there are large numbers of unmanned or ungated stations, or for example on London Underground where there’s now a finely tiled wall where the ticket window used to be! Also there’s the further problem of how you cater for people doing essential non-work journeys. Whilst currently the publicity is intimating that provision is for key workers only, in reality there will be people using transport to get to things like hospital appointments. In some areas it may be necessary for essential shopping, for example to get to the next town.

How one differentiates (when more things are open) between Gladys going one stop into town to do some essential shopping and the stir-crazy Smith family taking the train for a day of retail therapy at somewhere like Meadowhall will be a difficult problem to reconcile.

Firstly if you make the rule then most will follow it.
The family are going to really stand out - if there are two adults then one could have stayed home with the kids.
As with most Covid rules there will be little enforcement - just enough to keep the “essential only” message going - and most offenders will stand out.

 

[yorksrob]

If you think that whilst the general population are allowed to visit friends and family, those of us reliant on public transport are going to meekly sit in isolation for months on end, you're living in a dreamworld.

It ain't gonna happen.

 

[Meerkat]

If you think that whilst the general population are allowed to visit friends and family, those of us reliant on public transport are going to meekly sit in isolation for months on end, you're living in a dreamworld.

It ain't gonna happen.

Thinking about it the tightest restrictions should only be necessary in the peak.
You are of course assuming that long distance visits will be allowed for anyone.

 

[Bletchleyite]

OK, so just say words to effect of “essential - work (as per employer’s letter or key worker ID) or other essential Activity without more local alternative“.

That is I think still not great. There's no sense in taking the mick (e.g. me going to Wolverton Tesco by train when I could go to Bletchley on my bike, say[1]) but people are not restricted to, e.g., shop in Waitrose in their own town when a short train ride to Aldi may be more financially appropriate.

The requirements surrounding the use of public transport have to reflect the general advice for being out of the home, with the exception that if you've got a car and drive you really should use it.

[1] I actually have a car so in either case I'd drive, but let's hypothesize that I didn't.

 

[Meerkat]

That is I think still not great. There's no sense in taking the mick (e.g. me going to Wolverton Tesco by train when I could go to Bletchley on my bike, say[1]) but people are not restricted to, e.g., shop in Waitrose in their own town when a short train ride to Aldi may be more financially appropriate.

The requirements surrounding the use of public transport have to reflect the general advice for being out of the home, with the exception that if you've got a car and drive you really should use it.

[1] I actually have a car so in either case I'd drive, but let's hypothesize that I didn't.

I disagree that shopping a bit cheaper is an essential need to travel.
I also disagree about public transport - its risk level is such that the options for non-drivers travel have to be restricted.

 

[Carlisle]

If you think that whilst the general population are allowed to visit friends and family, those of us reliant on public transport are going to meekly sit in isolation for months on end, you're living in a dreamworld.

It ain't gonna happen.

I agree, we either need to keep the lockdown essentially in its present form for a bit longer , or get on and restore freedom of movement., whilst of course understanding a significant second wave may require it to be re imposed at some point for a limited period

 

[yorksrob]

I agree, we either need to keep the lockdown essentially in its present form for a bit longer , or get on and restore freedom of movement., whilst of course understanding a significant second wave may require it to be re imposed at some point for a limited period

I suppose we might well have the present lockdown a bit longer - but people will have to be able to move around at some stage soon.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I disagree that shopping a bit cheaper is an essential need to travel.

The price difference between Aldi and Waitrose is not "a bit". It's something like twice the price for a similar large shop. People simply can't afford that vs. taking the bus or train to the nearest German discounter.

I get a feeling of a bit of "I'm all right Jack" here?

 

[Meerkat]

The price difference between Aldi and Waitrose is not "a bit". It's something like twice the price for a similar large shop. People simply can't afford that vs. taking the bus or train to the nearest German discounter.

I get a feeling of a bit of "I'm all right Jack" here?

I take your point but...
how many people have a Waitrose nearby and not a Tesco/Morrison’s/etc.
it’s not going to be a boot full of shopping if you are getting the bus, and most have to pay the fare
your example is extreme and would get waived through by a copper on explanation (they are only really going to bother with busy buses (particularly during peak) and only query those who look out of place.