East Cost Franchise Retender

[fhs man 2]

Well the government east coast company will cease next year, so I was wondering when will they start discussing the handover ? and who do you think will bid for this currently brilliant franchise ?

Hopefully we get a good company that will not ditch the free first class meal service.

 

[BrianTheLion]

Well the government east coast company will cease next year, so I was wondering when will they start discussing the handover ? and who do you think will bid for this currently brilliant franchise ?

I'm not too bothered who gets it as long as its not a First group franchise we end up with!

Im fed up with my twitter being full of delay information or cancellations relating to Scotrail. Most of the problems are probably not down to first but I do get the impression that theyre a little jinxed up here in Scotland.. I dread to think what would happen if they were allowed to run even more trains north of Edinburgh!

 

[fhs man 2]

I'm not too bothered who gets it as long as its not a First group franchise we end up with!

Im fed up with my twitter being full of delay information or cancellations relating to Scotrail. Most of the problems are probably not down to first but I do get the impression that theyre a little jinxed up here in Scotland.. I dread to think what would happen if they were allowed to run even more trains north of Edinburgh!

If First get it then that would mean north of Edinburgh First would have a monopoly.

 

[Tomonthetrain]

National Express will win!1

 

[fhs man 2]

National Express will win!1

Now that would be funny, personally I am hoping on Ariva or Virgin.

 

[DaveNewcastle]

If First get it then that would mean north of Edinburgh First would have a monopoly.

Did you read this thread : Scotland Cross Border Plans Shelved or this thread East Coast Board of Directors on board! ?

Whoever is unlucky enough to be encumbered with the EC contract will apparently have the same stock, highly vacant 1st Class accom and highly variable loadings over he times of day (weekdays).

I'm happy to be proved wrong, but if I was engaged by First with the evidence available at present, and had to assess the viability, liability and profitability of the EC franchise, then my advice would not be encouraging.

 

[jon0844]

National Express will win!1

And what makes you think that?

 

[syorksdeano]

Personally I can see Virgin winning it and losing the West Coast franchise, hence the 'testing' the other week

 

[MidnightFlyer]

I doubt those two are corralated.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There is a possible scenario where First wins West Coast this year and East Coast next, plus already having TPE and Scotrail. Oh, and GW.
I'm sure the other TOCs, notably Virgin and Arriva for EC, will try and stop this happening.
It's called competition.

 

[Stats]

In the new franchise system who would be responsible for designing the service pattern. The last I read was that in a post IEP world DfT planned for the IEP to be used on semi-fast services and MkIVs to be used on reducing journey times on fast Edinburgh and Leeds services. Under the new franchise system could a new franchisee over-rule as long as they met the minimum calling requirements per station?

 

[swt_passenger]

Well the government east coast company will cease next year, so I was wondering when will they start discussing the handover ?

InterCity East Coast Franchise:

OJEU notice published August 2012;
invitation to tender issued January 2013;
award announced summer 2013;
contract starts December 2013.

 

[paul1609]

My bid for the East Coast would be: leeds services to be formed of 110 mph class 377s of 8 to 12 car length with portions splitting at Leeds for hourly for Bradford FS and 3 to 4 times per day to Skipton. Catering limited to trolley.
Hull, Lincoln and Harrogate services provided by dragged EMUs. Hull to get hourly EMU portion after TP electrification complete
1 TPH (mk 4) Kings Cross to Berwick upon Tweed calling at most stations north of Doncaster.
1 TPH (mk 4) Kings Cross to Edinburgh calling at Stevenage, York, Newcastle, Berwick.
Services to beyond Edinburgh Dropped.
All EC services to call at Stevenage, line speed to be reduced to 110 south of Hitchin to improve capacity.

 

[Wath Yard]

My bid for the East Coast would be: leeds services to be formed of 110 mph class 377s of 8 to 12 car length with portions splitting at Leeds for hourly for Bradford FS and 3 to 4 times per day to Skipton. Catering limited to trolley.
Hull, Lincoln and Harrogate services provided by dragged EMUs. Hull to get hourly EMU portion after TP electrification complete
1 TPH (mk 4) Kings Cross to Berwick upon Tweed calling at most stations north of Doncaster.
1 TPH (mk 4) Kings Cross to Edinburgh calling at Stevenage, York, Newcastle, Berwick.
Services to beyond Edinburgh Dropped.
All EC services to call at Stevenage, line speed to be reduced to 110 south of Hitchin to improve capacity.

A good job you won't be bidding then. Outer suburban EMUs for InterCity services, do you work for the DfT?

As for the bidders, I doubt there will be many surprises. Virgin and FirstGroup for certain, though a Virgin bid will have nothing at all to do with the recent Pendolino test. Stagecoach won't bid as they are shareholders in Virgin, and I doubt NX will either. As for Arriva, that will be an interesting one as they are trying to mount a number of ORRCATs raids through GC and Alliance on the ECML. The rest of the bidders will be made up of foreign state railway companies.

 

[Yew]

I don't think virgin or stagecoach will get it, after all EC compete with EMT on a fair few routes. However in all honesty I don't mind too much, I can't see any company changing much more than the paint and uniforms.

 

[tbtc]

Can anyone give evidence of the notion that one company cannot own adjacent TOCs? Or was barred from bidding for one because they held a neighbouring one?

There are plenty of examples of one company having a "monopoly" in an area (Virgin owning XC and West Coast, NX owning Central Trains and MidlandMainline, Prism owning Valley Lines and W&W, First owning Great Eastern and Anglia...) yet the "one company cannot have a monopoly" argument keeps getting trotted out.

 

[shinkansen1966]

InterCity East Coast Franchise:

OJEU notice published August 2012;
invitation to tender issued January 2013;
award announced summer 2013;
contract starts December 2013.

So we have until the end of next year to use our East Coast rewards points.

Do you really think any new company is going to honour these points by giving out free tickets ?

 

[Stats]

I don't think virgin or stagecoach will get it, after all EC compete with EMT on a fair few routes.

And your point being? Authorities are not concerned at competition within the railway industry. They take into account competition with all other forms of transport.

 

[Bellwater]

As long as its not First.

 

[swt_passenger]

Can anyone give evidence of the notion that one company cannot own adjacent TOCs? Or was barred from bidding for one because they held a neighbouring one?

There's no evidence yet, AFAICS. But I've always suspected it wouldn't be an issue unless/until ECML and WCML were held by the same franchisee, and then only for Scottish services - because that's the only significant area of competition between the routes. But the process is manageable because there is no real overlap between the competitions. By the time thay come to sort out the shortlist for ECML, they'll already know who has the WCML - so they can deal with any competition issues then.

Back when Stagecoach were bidding for South Central, people were saying they couldn't possibly be shortlisted, or they'd have a 'monopoly' in that area, yet at the same time GoVia already had two of the three 'Southern' franchises.

 

[Zoe]

As long as its not First.

Why? First have shown they are quite good at running an intercity TOC.

 

[tbtc]

There's no evidence yet, AFAICS. But I've always suspected it wouldn't be an issue unless/until ECML and WCML were held by the same franchisee, and then only for Scottish services - because that's the only significant area of competition between the routes. But the process is manageable because there is no real overlap between the competitions. By the time thay come to sort out the shortlist for ECML, they'll already know who has the WCML - so they can deal with any competition issues then.

Back when Stagecoach were bidding for South Central, people were saying they couldn't possibly be shortlisted, or they'd have a 'monopoly' in that area, yet at the same time GoVia already had two of the three 'Southern' franchises.

AFAIK London - Scotland (including every Scottish station) is still a smaller market than London - Manchester, and its fine for one TOC to have a "monopoly" on that route.

 

[WillPS]

Can anyone give evidence of the notion that one company cannot own adjacent TOCs? Or was barred from bidding for one because they held a neighbouring one?

There are plenty of examples of one company having a "monopoly" in an area (Virgin owning XC and West Coast, NX owning Central Trains and MidlandMainline, Prism owning Valley Lines and W&W, First owning Great Eastern and Anglia...) yet the "one company cannot have a monopoly" argument keeps getting trotted out.

It is nonsense.

 

[Wath Yard]

If anything the DfT actively discourages competition. Reading and Ipswich are 2 places that had competition on London services which was removed as part of franchise remapping. Competition can only benefit the passenger and the DfT is interested in what it can get in terms of premium payments.

 

[Zoe]

In the case of Reading there were large benefits in not having two separate companies running the services as First were able to use HSTs on semi-fast commuter services. This isn't something Thames would have been able to do. Back in 2004 when Thames was a separate franchise it was still awarded to First (for two years until the start of the Greater Western franchise in 2006) even though it was clearly going to reduce competition.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If anything the DfT actively discourages competition. Reading and Ipswich are 2 places that had competition on London services which was removed as part of franchise remapping. Competition can only benefit the passenger and the DfT is interested in what it can get in terms of premium payments.

It only gets complicated if the rail franchise winner has other (non-rail) interests.
First did get scrutinised by the Competition Commission when they originally won Scotrail because of their Scottish bus interests, but the deal was quickly cleared.
On the airline forums there is debate as to whether Virgin (Atlantic) will start London-Scotland services with the LHR slots freed up by the BA takeover of BMI.
If they did (I'm sure they won't) it could give Virgin Trains a problem with WC or EC bids.
DfT wants strong competition at the franchise bid stage but isn't interested below that.

 

[HSTEd]

And your point being? Authorities are not concerned at competition within the railway industry. They take into account competition with all other forms of transport.

I do thought that competition within the industry was the whole point.

 

[Zoe]

I do thought that competition within the industry was the whole point.

There is competition within the industry. The companies compete against each other for the franchises.

 

[Stats]

There's no evidence yet, AFAICS. But I've always suspected it wouldn't be an issue unless/until ECML and WCML were held by the same franchisee, and then only for Scottish services - because that's the only significant area of competition between the routes.

You're looking at the wrong franchises. The issue isn't between ECML and the WCML as there is significant competition by other modes of transport, notably air, but also coach services. The OFT's judgement on Virgin's bid for the East Coast franchise in 2004 was

In relation to the rail routes from London to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Dundee, the evidence suggests that even where there is a clear overlap between an ICEC rail service and an existing Virgin rail service, as on London to Glasgow, there is every prospect for continued vigorous competition from airlines which transport the vast majority of passengers on these flows. Any overlaps with Megabus do not raise concerns, in part because of the differentiation in the price and service offering between Megabus and the ICEC franchise and in part because Megabus will also face continued competition from National Express. Similarly, any overlaps with Scotair do not raise concerns because of the limited overlap and proximity of strong airline competition at Edinburgh airport.

The issue is more in relation to the overlap between East Coast and CrossCountry where competition by other modes is not provided. Notably the OFT would have required Virgin to some undertakings had they won the East Coast franchise in 2005 because they would have a near, or total, monopoly on some flows. The OFT's judgement in 2004 was

There are four flows between Edinburgh and Doncaster however where there is a realistic prospect that the merger would result in a substantial lessening of competition. On these flows, the available evidence indicates real scope for adverse effects from the merger. On the one flow (Edinburgh-York) where there are substantial unregulated, dedicated fares, competition will be eliminated by the merger. On other routes where fares are interavailable or unregulated fares are only a low proportion of total fare revenue on the route, there may still be some prospect of a substantial lessening of competition emerging from changes in the availability or mix of ticket types. The risk of these adverse effects is not mitigated by the prospects of air or rail new entry.

Consequently, the OFT believes that it is or may be the case that the merger may be expected to result in a substantial lessening of competition within a market or markets in the United Kingdom in particular on the flows between Edinburgh to York, Doncaster to York, Newcastle to Berwick and Berwick to Edinburgh

So, assuming nothing has changed Arriva may be at a disadvantage in the East Coast competition.

First have had to abide by some undertakings to operate ScotRail as they are the main player in the Scottish bus market.

 

[Aictos]

National Express will win!1

I hope not especially after the cock up they did last time, let Virgin or First win the East Coast