East Midlands Franchise 2019-

[ivanhoe]

You’d have thought that upgrading the 125’s, with electric door opening and retention tanks, would be an option , but that would have to be done pretty soon, as far as planning is concerned. There’d be little objections from the punters if they did that and give a further 5-10 years of decent rolling stock. Could they be biomode for example?,given the electrification in place soon from Kettering to St Pancras.

 

[duffield]

For 1 nobody knows, however the HSTs provide a significant proportion of the EM IC services.
So it would be a complete disaster if the HSTs had to be withdrawn before 2020 without a suitable replacement

So, what are the options:

1. New rolling stock - too late
2. Cascaded PRM compliant stock - is *anything* vaguely suitable likely to be available (apart from item 4 below)?
3. PRM mods to HST MK3s (or PRM mods to some other cascaded stock) - too late?
4. HSTs + MK4s (there were suggestions by someone on this board a while back that a power converter module to allow this was being designed, but I've seen nothing more about this since) - probably too late?
5. That leaves derogation while one of 1-4 is worked on - but that will cause an almighty row.

Are there any options I've left out (apart from the presumably totally unacceptable massive service cuts)? Any opinions on what actually will happen? Time is running out!

 

[cactustwirly]

So, what are the options:

1. New rolling stock - too late
2. Cascaded PRM compliant stock - is *anything* vaguely suitable likely to be available?
3. PRM mods to HST MK3s (or PRM mods to some other cascaded stock) - too late
4. HSTs + MK4s (there were suggestions that an power converter to allow this was being designed, by someone on this board a while back but I've seen nothing more since) - probably too late?
5. That leaves derogation while one of 1-4 is worked on - but that will cause an almighty row.

Are there any options I've left out (apart from the presumably totally unacceptable massive service cuts)? Any opinions on what actually will happen? Time is running out!

I think option 5 and either 3 or 1 is most likely!

 

[Meerkat]

Barring gauge issues (are there any?) surely modifying power cars (they still have that ‘guard’ space don’t they) to pull Mk4s is much simpler than modifying the mk3s?
By the sound of it the Wabtec issues are largely due to the source coaches and therefore production is always going to be slow.
Will the Mk4s be released in time?

 

[duffield]

Barring gauge issues (are there any?) surely modifying power cars (they still have that ‘guard’ space don’t they) to pull Mk4s is much simpler than modifying the mk3s?

Should be a lot simpler than modifying MK3s but the fact that it's apparently not happening or planned yet make me think it's too late. However, it may be there is a detailed plan but it's just not public at present.

Will the Mk4s be released in time?

Yes, of course I'd forgotten to add that - it seems increasingly unlikely.

I guess a short-term derogation would be grudgingly accepted *if* there was a clear dated plan to end it quickly.

 

[atraindriver]

I guess a short-term derogation would be grudgingly accepted *if* there was a clear dated plan to end it quickly.

I suspect that the choice will be derogation or wholesale withdrawal (leading to mass cancellations) so therefore in reality derogation is what it will be, regardless of how much shouting there is from pressure groups - and I'd say it's almost guaranteed that the shouting will be from pressure groups rather than actual users.

Is there any chance of the EM franchise actually being let by the PRM deadline?

 

[Burgerstahl]

It’s gone very quiet since the ITT.
What with Brexit, Mml electrification cancelled, Liverpool-Nottingham moving out of franchise and the 2019 prm date, I suspect a derogation for the hst fleet and another direct award to Stagecoach to keep it going as is, for another couple of years.

 

[Kneedown]

It’s gone very quiet since the ITT.
What with Brexit, Mml electrification cancelled, Liverpool-Nottingham moving out of franchise and the 2019 prm date, I suspect a derogation for the hst fleet and another direct award to Stagecoach to keep it going as is, for another couple of years.

It will have gone quiet as the winning bid isn't due to be announced until April.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Should be a lot simpler than modifying MK3s but the fact that it's apparently not happening or planned yet make me think it's too late. However, it may be there is a detailed plan but it's just not public at present.



Yes, of course I'd forgotten to add that - it seems increasingly unlikely.

I guess a short-term derogation would be grudgingly accepted *if* there was a clear dated plan to end it quickly.

The Mark 4 plan always had 3 issues
- would the carriages be available in time
- can gauging issues be cost-effectively resolved
- can the timetable manage the performance hit? (a Mark 4 is ~5 tonnes heavier than a Mk 3, so a 2+8Mk4 HST would probably have performance more like a 2+9HST), and HSTs already have a significant deficit in acceleration compared to 222s and 700s that they mix with.

Assuming the franchise announcement is in April 19, and a train order is made, then that provides rationale for a clearly time-bound exemption*. This feels like the least-worst way to brush the impacts of appallingly incompetent rolling stock policy under the carpet.

*Subject to new trains being in service on time

 

[Skymonster]

Derogation (within the context of an established plan for compliance including a fixed end date even if it is beyond the deadline) is the only logical solution for the mainline fleet. It's too late to start modifying the HSTs, Mk IVs won't fit, and new stock could not be built in time now. The only real alternative to a derogation will involve a substantial downgrade of the route from Sheffield / Derby / Nottingham / Leicester to London. I fully support the idea of making our trains more accessible and easier for everyone to use, but it would be absolutely rediculous to to allow the interests of minority pressure groups to have a severe impact on (and take priority over) the interests of the vast majority of passengers who travel between the Midlands and London.

 

[Killingworth]

The East Midlands franchise was announced in June 2007 to begin on 1st November 2007 and was originally due to end in March 2015. It has had short term extensions until August 2019.

Such short term arrangements are no basis for getting sound longer term capital investments in place, be it in rolling stock or stations. It should be no surprise that much of the rolling stock is not fit for use by the successful bidder after December 2019. I understand the best answers to my questions in post 653 above are;

1. HSTs will be kept in service as they would cost too much to bring up to modern standards before bi-modes arrive. There isn't time to do all the upgrade work needed, and the fleet's too small to release the units for such major work. There isn't capacity in workshops to do it anyway. Work on GWR and Scotrail units prove it's not such an easy job as some may have imagined. Sliding doors and retention toilets both require a lot of work. A dispensation for the life of the units seems likely to be agreed.

2. The split of the Liverpool - Norwich route could happen any time, but the availability of more 185s by TPE to allow 6 coaches may be the trigger.

 

[hooverboy]

could DfT not pull rank and say "you have not completed PRM so are not permitted to lease said stock" to the ROSCO's?.
you have 6 months to complete remedial work or find substitute stock of required quality,otherwise tender is forfeit.

let's face it, they have had the best part of 10 years to get their house in order,and have let it run to the wire.
time to call their bluff.

 

[SPADTrap]

could DfT not pull rank and say "you have not completed PRM so are not permitted to lease said stock" to the ROSCO's?.
you have 6 months to complete remedial work or find substitute stock of required quality,otherwise tender is forfeit.

let's face it, they have had the best part of 10 years to get their house in order,and have let it run to the wire.
time to call their bluff.

They were told modifying wasn't needed because of electrification which the government stopped. If anyone can pull rank and ask for compensation it will be the TOC.

 

[Alfie1014]

.

let's face it, they have had the best part of 10 years to get their house in order,and have let it run to the wire.
time to call their bluff.

It’s longer than that the deadline was set around the turn of the century 2000-1, at the time the industry was lobbying for closer to 30 years whereas the accessibility lobby wanted something like 10. A compromise between the two of around 20 years was settled on.

 

[edwin_m]

could DfT not pull rank and say "you have not completed PRM so are not permitted to lease said stock" to the ROSCO's?.
you have 6 months to complete remedial work or find substitute stock of required quality,otherwise tender is forfeit.

let's face it, they have had the best part of 10 years to get their house in order,and have let it run to the wire.
time to call their bluff.

The problem there is that there is no suitable substitute stock available, and it's probable that there isn't enough slack in the fleet to allow for the modifications. So regardless of the contractual niceties this approach would result in shortformed or cancelled services.

If the ramifications of Thameslink hadn't resulted in a less efficient timetable for EMT that needed more stock to deliver it, then perhaps the GC units taken on for that purpose could instead have provided cover for accessibility mods to the core fleet. Although there is still the issue that the HSTs would have to be modified for only a couple of years service before replacement by bi-modes.

 

[43096]

could DfT not pull rank and say "you have not completed PRM so are not permitted to lease said stock" to the ROSCO's?.
you have 6 months to complete remedial work or find substitute stock of required quality,otherwise tender is forfeit.

let's face it, they have had the best part of 10 years to get their house in order,and have let it run to the wire.
time to call their bluff.

But it has to be paid for - the ROSCOs are not going to make those changes without it being funded through lease rental increases. Any changes to leases with a TOC have to be approved by DfT. So it all comes back to DfT incompetence. They were told many years ago that this needed to be properly planned and funded. They have ignored that advice.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Grayling has just stated at Transport Questions in the Commons, that the delay in awarding the new Franchise is down to Rail Pensions.

 

[SPADTrap]

Grayling has just stated at Transport Questions in the Commons, that the delay in awarding the new Franchise is down to Rail Pensions.

Can you elaborate more on this? Doesn't sound good..

 

[Aictos]

Grayling has just stated at Transport Questions in the Commons, that the delay in awarding the new Franchise is down to Rail Pensions.

Which is just him putting the blame elsewhere and not on his doorstep,

The only reason there is a delay is simply down to the stupidity of his department and it's leadership nothing else!

 

[SPADTrap]

Which is just him putting the blame elsewhere and not on his doorstep,

The only reason there is a delay is simply down to the stupidity of his department and it's leadership nothing else!

Sounds a lot like a Grayling anti staff special!

 

[HH]

There is a problem around railway pensions, but DfT solved it on Southeastern. Eventually.

 

[Robertj21a]

Which is just him putting the blame elsewhere and not on his doorstep,

The only reason there is a delay is simply down to the stupidity of his department and it's leadership nothing else!

Do you know that for certain ?

Are the pensions actually all ok ?

 

[Meerkat]

...none of those is the case with EMT - it's a franchise bang in the middle of the country and bang in the middle of the spreadsheet - not lucrative enough to warrant massive private investment, no so subsidy-dependent to require generous public sector funds. That'll be the same for whoever wins it - I don't think it'll be enough of a political "hot potato" to get much attention - it's not "London" enough to get London amounts of money thrown at it and it's not far enough away to generate the kind of "local pride" that you'd get in a franchise serving the west country/ wales/ north/ scotland.

My answer to that would be to split EM.
A Midlands Express Service which I am guessing would be profitable, and an East Midlands local which could be a concession devolved to the local authorities.

 

[LowLevel]

My answer to that would be to split EM.
A Midlands Express Service which I am guessing would be profitable, and an East Midlands local which could be a concession devolved to the local authorities.

You could wave goodbye to Skegness's rail service along with possibly others - the local authorities would never be able to afford to maintain the rolling stock for the seasonal service so it would be a pointless exercise.

It works relatively well as it is. Adding the Birmingham services would have helped the local side black line but West Midlands politicising kyboshed that.

It's not an exciting operation but it provides a fairly solid and well regarded service within it's limitations most of the time.

 

[clagmonster]

Grayling has just stated at Transport Questions in the Commons, that the delay in awarding the new Franchise is down to Rail Pensions.

Is this answer recorded anywhere online, preferably in transcript form? I am having a little trouble finding it.

 

[mde]

Is this answer recorded anywhere online, preferably in transcript form? I am having a little trouble finding it.

It is indeed - the question is put by Anna Soubry and then answered in Grayling's imitable style.

Anna Soubry (Broxtowe) (Con)
Can the Secretary of State give us an update on the midland main line delayed franchise? As he knows, I am very grateful for the conversation we have had. Stagecoach has taken out £35 million of profit, and it appears to be running down an otherwise excellent system. Can he tell us when the franchise will be awarded?

Chris Grayling
The slight delay to the issuing of the new franchise is for complex reasons related to rail pensions. I have noted the issues that my right hon. Friend has raised. I am concerned about it. It would be unacceptable for any current franchisee to run down the franchise in the run-up to renewal, and a strong message is being sent to the company that, if that is happening, it has to stop right now.

 

[clagmonster]

Thanks very much Mde.

 

[Qwerty133]

You could wave goodbye to Skegness's rail service along with possibly others - the local authorities would never be able to afford to maintain the rolling stock for the seasonal service so it would be a pointless exercise.

It works relatively well as it is. Adding the Birmingham services would have helped the local side black line but West Midlands politicising kyboshed that.

It's not an exciting operation but it provides a fairly solid and well regarded service within it's limitations most of the time.

I stand by my view that is was a total mistake for the EMT local services to be placed in a separate franchise to the diesel west midlands commuter services and that the service levels in the east midlands have suffered as a result. CT used to be able to use west midlands stock in the east on weekends and school holidays meaning the seasonal east midlands services actually had sufficient capacity.

 

[43096]

I stand by my view that is was a total mistake for the EMT local services to be placed in a separate franchise to the diesel west midlands commuter services and that the service levels in the east midlands have suffered as a result. CT used to be able to use west midlands stock in the east on weekends and school holidays meaning the seasonal east midlands services actually had sufficient capacity.

We must have all dreamt the use of EMT HSTs for the likes of Summer Saturdays to Skegness and Lincoln Christmas Market, then!

 

[LowLevel]

We must have all dreamt the use of EMT HSTs for the likes of Summer Saturdays to Skegness and Lincoln Christmas Market, then!

Which is all good until you split the London route away again

There's still chronic overcrowding on Skegness services (and the consequent shortformed Matlock and Liverpool services) even with 2 HSTs per Saturday to Skegness and it doesn't help the heavy Friday and Monday loadings either. The WM 150s were excellent people and luggage shifters - you could fill the parcel area with cases.