East Midlands franchise won by Abellio

[hwl]

'New 125mph trains' for the mainline dictates Bi-mode I imagine. I can't see DfT signing off on high-speed express DMUs for a route that's electrified for that much of its length. The question is whether it's an adaptation of the IEP, a 125mph Bi-mode version of the 745 or something else entirely. Given Abellio's approach to Anglia I think the former is probably unlikely.
'Refurbished modern 12-car express trains' - so not 125mph and not new build, suggests 379, 360/1 or 350/2 I imagine. Unless heaven forbid they transfer the 321 Renatus fleet instead! December 2020 does tie in with the (original) proposed withdrawal date of the Anglia fleet.

No mention of change of stock for what's left of Norwich - Liverpool, so I imagine the 158s are staying put, which makes sense.
The smaller routes all list 'refurbished modern trains' - make of that what you will but I suspect inclusion of the term modern excludes 153s and 156s. What's left for them to use, 175s? ex-LNWR 170s?

125mph Bi-mode also add Bombardier to the list.
modern refurbished ex LNWR 170s and ex TfW 158s

 

[TheBigD]

Some concerns that spring to mind:

- Why are we seeing so many more services between Derby and Nottingham that have to make a reversal. Is it not the case that the Matlock, new Derby - Norwich and half-hourly Cross Country is enough for this market place and therefore enough before we stuff in more paths and add points for punctuality loss?

Nottingham - Derby will see 5 trains per hour.
2 x Nottingham - Birmingham.
1x Newark - Matlock.
1 x Nottingham - Crewe.
1 x Norwich - Derby.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well the thing is even with the current long turn arounds, it’s a maximum of 8 diagrams. Unless they’re all going to be 6 coaches, why would they want 22 (?) units? Unless, of course, they will use them on other routes such as Nottingham - Crewe and Nottingham - Grimsby.

They do all need to be 6 coaches. 185s are so low density that to do otherwise will mean serious overcrowding.

 

[samuelmorris]

125mph Bi-mode also add Bombardier to the list.
modern refurbished ex LNWR 170s and ex TfW 158s

Ah yes, forgot about the extra 158s - that would make more sense as they can presumably be harmonised with EMT's existing fleet.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Hourly services between Grimsby and Nottingham are welcomed!!

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Nottingham - Derby will see 5 trains per hour.
2 x Nottingham - Birmingham.
1x Newark - Matlock.
1 x Nottingham - Crewe.
1 x Norwich - Derby.

It would be great if the Cross Country could be diverted along the Castle Donnington line to speed up journey times between Nottingham and Birmingham. Probably won't happen till Cross Country is re-let though.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

Do we know how many diagrams there are on Liverpool-Norwich? Would replacement of the 158s by 185s (even if, say, only on one of the new eastern or western portions) be feasible, with cascading down of 158s to replace 153s and 156s on the regional routes?

 

[59CosG95]

It would be great if the Cross Country could be diverted along the Castle Donnington line to speed up journey times between Nottingham and Birmingham. Probably won't happen till Cross Country is re-let though.

Not sure how that would work, unless more XC services call at Burton to allow a change for Derby passengers. All academic as you say, anyhow.

 

[Failed Unit]

Nottingham - Derby will see 5 trains per hour.
2 x Nottingham - Birmingham.
1x Newark - Matlock.
1 x Nottingham - Crewe.
1 x Norwich - Derby.

I guess we may see other changes.

For example we could see Norwich - Crewe?

 

[TheBigD]

It would be great if the Cross Country could be diverted along the Castle Donnington line to speed up journey times between Nottingham and Birmingham. Probably won't happen till Cross Country is re-let though.

Wouldn't speed them up much. Fastest time you'd manage is around 1hr05, and that's assuming a decent path. The xx19 Birmingham - Nottingham already does it in around 1hr09 most hours. I remain to be convinced that missing out the big pot of revenue from Derby would be made up from the extra revenue from a slightly faster Birmingham - Nottingham journey.

 

[centraltrains]

Nottingham - London
Benefits include:
tables at all seats

In the world where most seem to want to avoid all possible interaction with others; I don't see how this is a benefit!

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the world where most seem to want to avoid all possible interaction with others; I don't see how this is a benefit!

I doubt this means all facing - could it involve things like the half-tables you get in VTWC 1st? Traditional airline seats are useless for laptop use - it's good that this is being considered.

 

[hwl]

In the world where most seem to want to avoid all possible interaction with others; I don't see how this is a benefit!

That include fold down ones on the seat back infront.

 

[sprinterguy]

That's quite a nice little portfolio Abellio are building across the UK.

Their star does seem to be in the ascendant at present.

It seems to me that there is always a dominant group in rail franchising: National Express did well out of the first round of franchising, then it was First Group, and in more recent years Arriva. Superficially at least it would seem that it's Abellio's turn in the sun.

 

[TheBigD]

I guess we may see other changes.

For example we could see Norwich - Crewe?

Currently the times on the two separate routes are way out of alignment and don't match anywhere near enough to be able to join them up. That's not to say either or both can't be retimed but on an increasely busy railway that's unlikely.

 

[Glenn1969]

Won't Nottingham to Crewe almost certainly be a stopper anyway? Would have thought there was more chance of it being extended at the Crewe end to Man Airport

 

[Ianno87]

Currently the times on the two separate routes are way out of alignment and don't match anywhere near enough to be able to join them up. That's not to say either or both can't be retimed but on an increasely busy railway that's unlikely.

And I'm not sure that there's any particularly big flows that would make joining up worth it - with seperate services both Derby and Nottingham (the main markets) get links both east and west, with the side benefit of an extra train per hour betwewn Derby and Nottingham themselves.

 

[Nick Nation]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to confirm that the only trains to serve Wellingborough will be the Corbys...so if you want to go from W'bro to Nottingham, a change at Kettering will now be required.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Their star does seem to be in the ascendant at present.

It seems to me that there is always a dominant group in rail franchising: National Express did well out of the first round of franchising, then it was First Group, and in more recent years Arriva. Superficially at least it would seem that it's Abellio's turn in the sun.

Except they always seem to be on a final warning at Scotrail, and reportedly are losing money on their UK rail portfolio.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

I know Abellio have said the entire InterCity fleet will be replaced but to save decoupling and coupling at Nottingham, couldn't the 7-coach Class 222's be cascaded onto the Liverpool / Norwich routes? They're only around 15 years old, are less polluting and more reliable*. Only trouble is they're heavier which I guess means they can't go on that route.

*As regards the miles per technical incident, the 222's are almost 47,000 - 15x and HST's, altogether, are almost 10,000 to 12,000 roughly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to confirm that the only trains to serve Wellingborough will be the Corbys...so if you want to go from W'bro to Nottingham, a change at Kettering will now be required.

That (and Bedford) is rather an issue on the MML at present. There could really do with being a half hourly St P-Leicester EMU service and a few more wires...

 

[krus_aragon]

I know Abellio have said the entire InterCity fleet will be replaced but to save decoupling and coupling at Nottingham, couldn't the 7-coach Class 222's be cascaded onto the Liverpool / Norwich routes?

They've also said that that route is cut back to Derby-Norwich.

The 222s are surely earmarked by the DfT for the next CrossCountry franchise.

 

[mushroomchow]

Well well - all change. Good luck to Abellio - who have done a good job all told with the Greater Anglia franchise so far - but I have my reservations.

I'm concerned that there have been no suggestions of regional stock upgrade commitments - presumably, cascading of stock from elsewhere is in their plans? The 153s and 156s can't surely be planned for retention as far into the future as 2027? Even the 158s are becoming long in the tooth. At least Abellio have shown their willingness to replace in the Anglia franchise, but that was a bid commitment - I'd love to see FLIRTS show up on the EMR network, but I doubt it.

Gonna be sad to see Stagecoach go - they've done a good job in the face of being continually shafted by the DfT, particularly by route change consultations and electrification cancellations, so I wouldn't be surprised if the pensions complaint is a bit of a smokescreen to force them out of the running in favour of franchisees more willing to tow the DfT line - namely, working around electrification abandonment with bi-modes, DOO and "all roads lead to London".

I'm sure the guards will be delighted by Abellio's openness to DOO as well, for what it's worth - unions on EMT are amongst the most active on the network but Stagecoach kept them sweet for the most part, largely because they've maintained the status quo for the most part of the franchise. Abellio will not find it so easy and I would not be surprised to see multiple strikes over the coming years as they try to change practices.

That said, there are positives. I'm very interested to see the outcome of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell trials - the MML is a perfect test bed for proving the concept in intercity travel, and the HSTs need replacing fairly soon. I just don't want the rest of the network to be ignored while the main London - Derby spine gets all the investment, which this bid really sounds like it's going to do - again, in line with the DfT's track record (not that you could even argue the investment there has been acceptable over the past 15 years).

 

[ainsworth74]

I know Abellio have said the entire InterCity fleet will be replaced but to save decoupling and coupling at Nottingham, couldn't the 7-coach Class 222's be cascaded onto the Liverpool / Norwich routes?

Liverpool - Norwich is split at Nottingham with Liverpool - Nottingham going to a different franchise and Norwich - Nottingham being extended to Derby. I would suggest that that remaing stub within the EMR franchise is well suited to 158s and the new service in a different franchise is well suited to the twenty-two 185s that are soon to be homeless. Meanwhile the 222s are probably far more useful to a future XC franchise...

 

[sprinterguy]

Except they always seem to be on a final warning at Scotrail, and reportedly are losing money on their UK rail portfolio.

Yeah, more a case of quantity of franchises rather than quality. Their bids must surely be good quality, it's their ability to deliver that seems dubious.

The 222s are surely earmarked by the DfT for the next CrossCountry franchise.

The DfT rarely earmarks existing stock for one franchise or another. They can limit the field somewhat by specifying certain requirements in the ITT (And it almost goes without saying that the Crosscountry inter-city services will require 125mph capable self-powered stock in order to maintain current schedules), but it's usually up to individual bidders as to how they meet the specification.

 

[krus_aragon]

The DfT rarely earmarks existing stock for one franchise or another. They can limit the field somewhat by specifying certain requirements in the ITT (And it almost goes without saying that the Crosscountry inter-city services will require 125mph capable self-powered stock in order to maintain current schedules), but it's usually up to individual bidders as to how they meet the specification.

Perhaps I'm reading too much into the fact that even when schedules slipped, the EM franchise was always to be awarded before the XC one. (If they were the other way around, no XC bid could assume the availability of the 222s for their franchise.)

 

[LowLevel]

350/2? A service like the LNR Birmingham service would seem entirely suitable and will be the low-cost, high-capacity, basic but comfortable service that is needed. It doesn't need a "true" InterCity service any more than Northampton does.

All Class 350s are now 110mph units, by the way. I'd imagine the same mod could be done to any other 20m OHLE Desiro easily enough.

Or are the StanEx Electrostars (an easy Abellio-Abellio transfer) 4x20m?

The 379s would have my bet with a quality interior etc. Fares are set on an Intercity basis from the Northants stations on the MML and are higher than the corresponding stations on the WCML. Consequently you'll never get away with providing suburban spec rolling stock without large fares cuts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Liverpool - Norwich is split at Nottingham with Liverpool - Nottingham going to a different franchise and Norwich - Nottingham being extended to Derby. I would suggest that that remaing stub within the EMR franchise is well suited to 158s and the new service in a different franchise is well suited to the twenty-two 185s that are soon to be homeless. Meanwhile the 222s are probably far more useful to a future XC franchise...

Yes, I would agree this is a sensible thing to do.

On the other hand, the railway has not taken the likely path very often of late!

Another option for Liv-Notts would be for TPE to extend the Class 800 order and use the LHCS on it, as unlike the rest of TPE electrification is not likely any time in the foreseeable future.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The 379s would have my bet with a quality interior etc. Fares are set on an Intercity basis from the Northants stations on the MML and are higher than the corresponding stations on the WCML. Consequently you'll never get away with providing suburban spec rolling stock without large fares cuts.

As I've mentioned on the thread about Corby, if they want to grow use from there (a very poor town) they are going to need fares like those from Northampton, not outrageous IC fares as charged from Market Ketteringborough etc.

And for all I love Class 350s (2+2 seated variety), to the point that I sometimes use the LNR service from Crewe even on an Any Permitted ticket, they or other 20m EMUs with doors at thirds do not give an InterCity feel for the InterCity fares.

 

[NoMorePacers]

Market Ketteringborough? Wonder where that is.