Economic Case for the Far North Line

[Esker-pades]

By the way, on a slightly different note, I just had a closer look at the timetable. Looks to me like every Monday-Saturday, 12 trains depart Inverness in the general direction of Dingwall/etc. And every Monday-Saturday, 14 trains return to Inverness! Uh? How does that work? Well OK, I can guess, there must be some empty workings from Inverness, but - why? That doesn't sound an efficient way of giving a good train service.

As a bonus, every Friday and Saturday night, an extra service leaves Inverness for Tain. But on its return journey, it only gets as far as Muir of Ord. Maybe there's a whole ghostly pile of DMUs at Muir of Ord, and another train gets added every Friday and Saturday, and if someone thought to use them, the national DMU shortage would be over in an instant

ECS moves are quite important to check.

Nope, just that unstaffed stations are a lot cheaper to run than staffed and that 5 miles of track costs a lot less to maintain than 100 (can't get the actual mileage at the moment).

At least one service splits at Dingwall for Wick and Kyle.

Sunday only, the 17:54 from Inverness.

 

[mailbyrail]

I've just compared services back in 1977 and 1987 with today.
There were three trains each way then, all of them calling at all stations, splitting at Georgemas.
Journey time Inverness - Wick was generally 4 hrs 35mins in 1977 and 4 hrs 12 mins in 1987, Inverness - Thurso was between 2 and 5 mins shorter than to/from Wick.
The only Sunday train in 1977 was Inverness-Lairg and return but there were two trains along the whole route in 1987.
Inverness-Wick is 5 mins slower than in 1987 but Thurso is about 20 mins faster.
Wick would seem to be the only place that is worse off today than 30/40 years ago

 

[Esker-pades]

I've just compared services back in 1977 and 1987 with today.
There were three trains each way then, all of them calling at all stations, splitting at Georgemas.
Journey time Inverness - Wick was generally 4 hrs 35mins in 1977 and 4 hrs 12 mins in 1987, Inverness - Thurso was between 2 and 5 mins shorter than to/from Wick.
The only Sunday train in 1977 was Inverness-Lairg and return but there were two trains along the whole route in 1987.
Inverness-Wick is 5 mins slower than in 1987 but Thurso is about 20 mins faster.
Wick would seem to be the only place that is worse off today than 30/40 years ago

Wick passengers now don't get the dividing service. They have a 30 minute round trip to Thurso before. That's a big problem.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Wick passengers now don't get the dividing service. They have a 30 minute round trip to Thurso before. That's a big problem.

The local service between Thurso and Wick might be useful though.

 

[Esker-pades]

The local service between Thurso and Wick might be useful though.

If one had an extra unit which was used as a connection to Inverness to Thurso services, it could easily be used to provide Wick-Thurso local services between times.

I'm currently trying to come up with a timetable that uses the currently available rolling stock, with "additional" services when/if extra rolling stock becomes available. Extra services would include a unit to provide additional services right at the top. I'll share it once I've finished.

 

[Bald Rick]

However they are still far more expensive then basic Petrol or Diesel models and until that changes, Electric vehicles won't make much of a difference apart from maybe taxis or buses in city centres.

As to driverless vehicles, the concept might work on motorways and town centres etc but in rural areas such as Scottish Highlands and Welsh Valleys I doubt it.

As to rubbishing people because they oppose closures due to a social need let me remind you of the Transport Act 1968 Section 39 which introduced the first Government subsidies for railways which were unremunerative for British Rail but deemed socially necessary.

Which I believe the Far North Line meets all 3 requirements and so is still in use today and why it isn't going to be closed anytime soon.

Providing three conditions were met, a subsidy could be granted to the running of the line which were:

1. The line was unremunerative.
2. It is desirable for social or economic reasons for the passenger services to continue
3. It is financially unreasonable to expect British Rail to provide those services without a grant.

Unless you like to repeal such act, we will still see lines supported by it.

A few points here.

1) electric vehicles are fast becoming competitive with petrol / diesel, both in terms of up front cost and range. The whole life cost is already on a par fro those who do high mileage. Some commercial fleet buyers are thinking about going electric - indeed I saw my first electric police car last week. In a decade’s time I expect a majority of cars to be electric.

2) autonomous vehicles, if they happen, are far more suited to rural areas than city centres. City centres have much unpredictability - how it would deal with a busy zebra crossing or minor obstruction in the road that requires tight manoeuvring (perhaps using a bit of pavement) is beyond me. Much less of an issue in rural areas.

3) re the Act. If alternatives are available, better and (much) cheaper to provide, it may not remain “desirable for social or economic reasons for the passenger services to continue”. Clearly it will be a brave politician who takes that decision.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

2) autonomous vehicles, if they happen, are far more suited to rural areas than city centres. City centres have much unpredictability - how it would deal with a busy zebra crossing or minor obstruction in the road that requires tight manoeuvring (perhaps using a bit of pavement) is beyond me. Much less of an issue in rural areas.

Interesting. I'd have said almost the opposite - that autonomous cars will appear first in city centres. I think you are correct to the extent that unexpected events (like a pedestrian dashing out) will typically happen much more often in city centres. However, the potential difficulty of the decisions that the autonomous car would have to be able to cope with would remain much the same: Whether you're in the city or the country, you equally have to be able to cope with something running out in front of you, or something blocking your path, or an icy patch of road threatening a skid, and so on. So you have to have the same ability to cope and reliability. It's just that many of those things will happen more often in a city centre. On the other hand, speeds will often be higher in the country.

My expectation therefore would be that autonomous cars would become able to safely drive on country roads at the same time as they can on roads in urban areas. My only reason for thinking that it may be that they appear in city centres first is a suspicion that, before the technology is completely mature, we may have autonomous vehicles that are trusted to drive but only on specially adapted low-speed roads - and if that's the case, the first place that those roads will appear is in city centres (because that's where such roads would see the greatest use).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

If one had an extra unit which was used as a connection to Inverness to Thurso services, it could easily be used to provide Wick-Thurso local services between times.

I'm currently trying to come up with a timetable that uses the currently available rolling stock, with "additional" services when/if extra rolling stock becomes available. Extra services would include a unit to provide additional services right at the top. I'll share it once I've finished.

Yes, that's something like what I was thinking when I suggested a shuttle. My thought was to run the through train to Wick, and the shuttle to Thurso - that's because of the shorter Georgemas-Thurso journey time, which would imply longer turnaround times, giving the shuttle more resilience against delays to help ensure it can reliably connect with the through train - because guaranteeing that connection is essential if you want passengers to use the shuttle. And also because it saves reversing the through train.

I imagine it would work like:

1. Shuttle leaves Thurso as Wick-bound train is 10 mins or so from Georgemas. So both shuttle and through train arrive at Georgemas about the same time, to allow Thurso-Wick journeys.
2. Through train leaves Georgemas for Wick at the same time as the shuttle leaves for Thurso - this time carrying Inverness-Thurso passengers.
3. Shuttle leaves Thurso a few mins after return through train leaves Wick - again so they arrive at Georgemas about the same time. Shuttle will be carrying Thurso-Inverness passengers.
4. Through train leaves Georgemas for Inverness about the same time as the shuttle leaves for Thurso again - now carrying Wick-Thurso passengers.
5. Shuttle waits at Thurso for the next train from Inverness.

You'd possibly need some works at Georgemas to allow both trains to run to the platform there.

 

[47271]

I know this thread isn't about autonomous vehicles but, slightly back on topic, I'd love to see how one would cope with a fastish Scottish single track road such as the one between Helmsdale and Forsinard. I can anticipate and judge passing places and adjust my speed as can the oncoming driver, sometimes at as much as a mile's distance, and you can often make crosses at surprisingly high speed.

When will an autonomous vehicle be able to do that? I've got visions of two of them in nose to nose stand off in the middle of the road...

 

[Bletchleyite]

TBH if you were going to do work at Georgemas, a curve to allow the through train to serve Thurso would be of more value, it's much busier than Wick.

At the same time build a station at Halkirk, it's nuts that it doesn't have one at the largest settlement for miles around. Should be a fairly cheap job for a single platform.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

TBH if you were going to do work at Georgemas, a curve to allow the through train to serve Thurso would be of more value, it's much busier than Wick.

At the same time build a station at Halkirk, it's nuts that it doesn't have one at the largest settlement for miles around. Should be a fairly cheap job for a single platform.

Fair points.

Is Thurso busier than Wick mainly because of the catchment area it serves, or mainly because it offers 30-minute quicker journeys to Inverness, despite being further away from Inverness by road?

 

[najaB]

When will an autonomous vehicle be able to do that?

I'd say within 10 years. The general public doesn't appreciate (a) how much work has been done in the field of image recognition in recent years; or (b) just how money the big automakers are investing in autonomy. (Hella lot in both cases). If we assume that M2M communications technology continues to develop at the same rate as it has over the last decade or so, it's not inconceivable that the ARVs could coordinate their arrival at the passing points such that neither vehicle even needs to come to a stand.

Is Thurso busier than Wick mainly because of the catchment area it serves, or mainly because it offers 30-minute quicker journeys to Inverness?

Mainly the former - there's more employment in Thurso and its environs, plus the ferries.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Yes, that's something like what I was thinking when I suggested a shuttle. My thought was to run the through train to Wick, and the shuttle to Thurso - that's because of the shorter Georgemas-Thurso journey time, which would imply longer turnaround times, giving the shuttle more resilience against delays to help ensure it can reliably connect with the through train - because guaranteeing that connection is essential if you want passengers to use the shuttle. And also because it saves reversing the through train.

I imagine it would work like:

1. Shuttle leaves Thurso as Wick-bound train is 10 mins or so from Georgemas. So both shuttle and through train arrive at Georgemas about the same time, to allow Thurso-Wick journeys.
2. Through train leaves Georgemas for Wick at the same time as the shuttle leaves for Thurso - this time carrying Inverness-Thurso passengers.
3. Shuttle leaves Thurso a few mins after return through train leaves Wick - again so they arrive at Georgemas about the same time. Shuttle will be carrying Thurso-Inverness passengers.
4. Through train leaves Georgemas for Inverness about the same time as the shuttle leaves for Thurso again - now carrying Wick-Thurso passengers.
5. Shuttle waits at Thurso for the next train from Inverness.

You'd possibly need some works at Georgemas to allow both trains to run to the platform there.

This would tie up a unit for 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for 8 x 12 ? mile shuttles a day (two on Sundays). Even if we had spare units hanging around, would it be worth the assets and crews hanging around?

Seriously, is there any Wick-Thurso-Wick local traffic, apart from a few tourists in the summer - that take the train?

Even if you provided an hourly shuttle each way between Wick and Thurso, for free, subsidised by the Scottish govt, how many passengers would the service attract?

 

[70014IronDuke]

TBH if you were going to do work at Georgemas, a curve to allow the through train to serve Thurso would be of more value, it's much busier than Wick.

At the same time build a station at Halkirk, it's nuts that it doesn't have one at the largest settlement for miles around. Should be a fairly cheap job for a single platform.

Not to say the above is not a good idea, but I suspect putting the dosh into creating the Lentran loop would give far more benefit all round, including to Wick and Thurso passengers.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Or perhaps they'll levy a tax of their own to cover it? Either way, a pretty crass remark and no, I'm not a Scottish Nationalist.

If the Scottish parliament decide to levy a tax, and it's transparent, and the Scots are prepared to pay for it - then fine by me. The problem all too often seems to be that people in here seek to push rail subsidies and forget that the taxpayers need to be persuaded that this is a good service to spend it on. I'm not saying we should ignore the social and other benefits of rail - far from it - but the costs have to be evaluated versus the returns. And some campaigns, eg the outcry against closing Kildonan, seem just way, way OTT to me.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not to say the above is not a good idea, but I suspect putting the dosh into creating the Lentran loop would give far more benefit all round, including to Wick and Thurso passengers.

It's a proper shame we're not a low platform country, it'd cost little more than a bus stop then.

 

[70014IronDuke]

It's a proper shame we're not a low platform country, it'd cost little more than a bus stop then.

Well, yes, the platform could then be cheap - the direct chord to the Thurso line would still cost money!

 

[InOban]

This would tie up a unit for 24 hours a day, seven days a week, for 8 x 12 ? mile shuttles a day (two on Sundays). Even if we had spare units hanging around, would it be worth the assets and crews hanging around?

Seriously, is there any Wick-Thurso-Wick local traffic, apart from a few tourists in the summer - that take the train?

Even if you provided an hourly shuttle each way between Wick and Thurso, for free, subsidised by the Scottish govt, how many passengers would the service attract?

For heaven's sake. There's a bus every hour from before 6 until 10 at night!

 

[AndrewE]

If the Scottish parliament decide to levy a tax, and it's transparent, and the Scots are prepared to pay for it - then fine by me. The problem all too often seems to be that people in here seek to push rail subsidies and forget that the taxpayers need to be persuaded that this is a good service to spend it on...

Don't forget that the Swiss actually voted for a road fuel tax (and I think a levy on HGVs going through the country) to fund investment in their railways - that were already pretty good compared to those in a lot of Europe.

 

[Steamysandy]

Going back briefly to electric vehicles -- How many charging points will you have to install between invernInv and Wick to cover the route and inland where are you going to place them?
Colin Campbell (a local comedian)suggested many years ago that if they buried the waste from Dounreay in the Moors and planted trees on top they could eventually harvest self illuminating Christmas Trees! Could they do the same with charging points?

 

[Bald Rick]

Going back briefly to electric vehicles -- How many charging points will you have to install between invernInv and Wick to cover the route and inland where are you going to place them?

None. It’s 102 miles.

 

[47802]

For heaven's sake. There's a bus every hour from before 6 until 10 at night!

But you forgot only Trains are acceptable public transport on here, even though buses may be a more suitable solution for the traffic and route on offer.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Don't forget that the Swiss actually voted for a road fuel tax (and I think a levy on HGVs going through the country) to fund investment in their railways - that were already pretty good compared to those in a lot of Europe.

The Swiss? Bully for them. The Swiss are an amazing lot, a nation that speaks four languages that manages to hang in there for the common good. Probably an example to the world, but what's this got to do with the subject matter? (I won't put in here what my Scottish pal Tom - a nationalist in the 1970s - says about the current SMP because I'd be banned if I did.)

 

[70014IronDuke]

For heaven's sake. There's a bus every hour from before 6 until 10 at night!

I truly apologise for my ignorance. I dare say 99.999% of the UK and Northern Ireland population are fully conversant of the Thurso-Wick transport crisis (no doubt the subject of international conferences in New York, Tokyo, Moscow, etc) - but I am in the miserable minority that doesn't fully understand what you mean here.

Are you saying there is desperate need for a more intensive, high-speed public transport service between Wick and Thurso (and, presumably, via Georgemouse Jct?) - which could be achieved by an enhanced train service?

Or no need whatsoever (because the buses do the job)?

Or something in between?

 

[Steamysandy]

None. It’s 102 miles.

So electric cars will be expected to run on fresh air if the batteries go flat North of Inverness!

 

[Esker-pades]

I truly apologise for my ignorance. I dare say 99.999% of the UK and Northern Ireland population are fully conversant of the Thurso-Wick transport crisis (no doubt the subject of international conferences in New York, Tokyo, Moscow, etc) - but I am in the miserable minority that doesn't fully understand what you mean here.

Are you saying there is desperate need for a more intensive, high-speed public transport service between Wick and Thurso (and, presumably, via Georgemouse Jct?) - which could be achieved by an enhanced train service?

Or no need whatsoever (because the buses do the job)?

Or something in between?

The biggest passenger flows would be Thurso-Halkirk-Wick and Thurso/Wick/Halkirk to Inverness. What is suggested is that an extra unit is used for a number of reasons, but kept at the far north end for the whole day.
A: Shuttle between Wick and Georgemas Junction to cut the extra half hour Wick passengers currently have due to the detour via Thurso.
B: In between the 4 services per day that run in each direction, it could be used to provide a useful Thurso to Wick shuttle. Buses take ~45 mins whilst the train takes under 30. That would attract a reasonable passenger flow.

 

[47802]

So electric cars will be expected to run on fresh air if the batteries go flat North of Inverness!

My friends Tesla could probably just about get there and back without a recharge, but looking at Zap Map there are already chargers around Thurso, Wick, Scabster, John 'o Groats etc plus others out towards and beyond Dounreay, and some intermediate points down the A9 so it shouldn't be a problem even now, and expect there will be many more charging points in a few years time, Shell and BP are intending to install them on their forecourts, public building may get them my local hospital has some, retail parks may get them, in more remote areas such as larger one stop shops may get them. after all putting a charging station in is likely to be easier than building a Petrol Station. It will become a non issue.

 

[47802]

The biggest passenger flows would be Thurso-Halkirk-Wick and Thurso/Wick/Halkirk to Inverness. What is suggested is that an extra unit is used for a number of reasons, but kept at the far north end for the whole day.
A: Shuttle between Wick and Georgemas Junction to cut the extra half hour Wick passengers currently have due to the detour via Thurso.
B: In between the 4 services per day that run in each direction, it could be used to provide a useful Thurso to Wick shuttle. Buses take ~45 mins whilst the train takes under 30. That would attract a reasonable passenger flow.

And how much are you going to increase the subsidy by to achieve this, in an area with a limited population that is already reasonably well catered for by the Bus service.

As is frequently the case on here fantasy land economics with a bottomless pit of money.

 

[InOban]

A viable public transport service depends on frequency as much as speed. The bus also stops at the supermarket in each town, the hospital in each town, the technical college, etc. And remember that every Scot 60+ travels free.

 

[Esker-pades]

And how much are you going to increase the subsidy by to achieve this, in an area with a limited population that is already reasonably well catered for by the Bus service.

As is frequently the case on here fantasy land economics with a bottomless pit of money.

That would be a single class 158 unit. It really won't cost that much money.