No He didn't say anything of the sort, try reading it again (or maybe read it properly for the first time. Here is what I said:
So, where did I say the bulk of new cars being electric?
You stated that electric cars would be comparable in price to IC vehicles with the range characteristics you have suggested.
This means they will dominate the market, because there would be no downsides to buying them.
What is more likely to happen if manufacturers can't produce enough cars to dominate the market, is they will increase the price of the cars to choke off demand - they will charge what the market will bear.
ny reference to the grid collapsing is drivel, as is comparing prices today, because today isn't 5-6 years away.
As someone who is
literally paid to do research on the decarbonisation of the UK energy system, I am somewhat qualified to speak on this topic.
The
average car does something like 7800 miles per year, which is 21 miles per day or so.
The
stated consumption of this new "ID.3" is about 240Wh/mile - which translates into 5040Wh per day.
5kWh per vehicle per day.
This is an absolute minimum charging power of 210W per car, even if they are all magically charged evenly over the day.
With a more realistic Economy 7 charge scale, you are looking at 720W per car.
This doesn't sound like a lot.
But for every million cars that is 720MWe of extra load. And given availability and the fact that that energy tends to get used on weekdays and it is likely that people will keep their cars near topped off since they will get into the habit of plugging in every night, you will want more than that.
But nevermind that.
There are ~30 million cars in the UK, t
he average lifespan of a British light vehicle ~8 years
That implies a replacement rate of nearly 4 million vehicles per annum.
So even 25% market share of new car will look at an extra ~700MWe CCGT unit per annum at the minimum.
The diurnal demand swing will let you get away with this for a while.
But it is only a few gigawatts these days and it has been getting smaller for years.
Very rapidly you will exhaust it - and the grid planners have not made any allowance for the massive demand electric cars will place on it.
And if they really can deliver the specs they are saying at the price they are saying, it will probably rapidly grow beyond 25%, assuming IC car manufacturers do nothing in response.
Oh and assuming people don't celebrate the very low cost of driving their electric cars by driving way more! Which we all know they will. (Americans drive twice what we do)
You will be lucky to get a CCGT operational in much less than 10 years from a standing start today, these projects take a long time, and then there are investments in distribution upgrades and all the governance issues that will arise when Economy 7 becomes peak time because of people charging cars.
The asymptotic electricity demand for the current car fleet would be expected to be in the region of 20GWe charging power!
Even workplace charging doesn't help
that much in this case
And that doesn't even have a proper set of standards or payment infrastructure concieved of yet, yet alone ready for roll out.
And whilst workplace charging reduces total peak charging demand, it also removes any residual nightime off-peak effect.
Why will the prices be as competitive or better than an equivalent IC vehicle in 5+ years? For a start, once production of EV components ramps up, they are much simpler to produce, i.e., a motor package, probably 3 phase PM motors will be the norm, power electronics packages will have works costs of 10s of pounds, the natural development of car management processor/interfaces will be no more expensive than current engine management processors. The battery pack will be then have higher power density and recyclable such that lithium can be recovered. The body will be about the same but have more flexible space. There will of course be no engine, gearbox, fuel tank or exhaust system, so all in all much simpler to manufacture, and for the buyer, much cheaper to run.
But engines, gearboxes, fuel tanks and exhaust systems (and you will still have to have a final drive!)
are not the expensive parts in modern cars.
Things like the Volkswagen Up! demonstrate just how cheap they are to make. Cars that cost well under £10,000 have all these things.
Engines and gearboxes are made with tooling that the companies have already developed, qualified and procured.
The cost of these things is the marginal cost of making them and will be for many years - Internal Combustion cars will get cheaper.
To 'persuade' take-up of EVs, I would imagine car tax to remain lower or non-existent, with road pricing or mileage based levies applied.
As Norway demonstrates, such things will be reduced rapidly as takeup increases, otherwise the Government will blow all it's money subsidising cars that will have been purchased anyway
With children in Greenwich suffering above normal levels of asthma and other respiratory ailments, the benefit of a ban on certain gross polluters will quickly start improving things. The money won't stop tomorrow anyway because as everybody here has said (ene you) that there won't suddenly be a majority of EVs on the roads, it will take a few years.
Unfortunately people who have Asthma and other respiratory ailments tend to have them pretty much for life, with varying severity.
All those people will require a lot more money spent on their healthcare for years and years.
Whilst the number of new cases might be expected to drop off, the problem with these chronic ailments is that they never really go away.