EMR (ie EMT) HSTs to be replaced by class 180s...?

[yorksrob]

From my experience of EMT HST's, most people are on/off at Leicester and points North thereof.

 

[43096]

Not huge enough to prevent it being a complete balls up, unfortunately.

Too few resources which are too unreliable and too thinly spread.

I agree it is a huge gamble/risk. But it is a plan as to how they might do it, which the vast majority on this thread are ignoring as a way of eliminating the HST fleet.

Looking at the fleet currently, EMT have:
9 x 8-car HST: 72 vehicles (ignoring spares)
3 x 6-car HST: 18 vehicles
6 x 7-car 222: 42 vehicles
17 x 5-car 222: 85 vehicles
4 x 4-car 222: 16 vehicles
Total 233 vehicles.

Post Dec 2020, EMR possible fleet is:
6 x 7-car 222: 42 vehicles
17 x 5-car 222: 85 vehicles
4 x 4-car 222: 16 vehicles
21 x 4-car 360: 84 vehicles
Total 227 vehicles

 

[43096]

From my experience of EMT HST's, most people are on/off at Leicester and points North thereof.

And that's the point: do Abellio understand the passenger flows?

They are taking a huge gamble on it, even more so when you consider that Derby is still an important railway town and there are several senior railway people who use the route regularly. It's the local route for Modern Railways' Ian Walmsley, for instance.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree it is a huge gamble/risk. But it is a plan as to how they might do it, which the vast majority on this thread are ignoring as a way of eliminating the HST fleet.

Looking at the fleet currently, EMT have:
9 x 8-car HST: 72 vehicles (ignoring spares)
3 x 6-car HST: 18 vehicles
6 x 7-car 222: 42 vehicles
17 x 5-car 222: 85 vehicles
4 x 4-car 222: 16 vehicles
Total 233 vehicles.

Post Dec 2020, EMR possible fleet is:
6 x 7-car 222: 42 vehicles
17 x 5-car 222: 85 vehicles
4 x 4-car 222: 16 vehicles
21 x 4-car 360: 84 vehicles
Total 227 vehicles

I'd just prefer it if the didn't gamble with the train service for the sake of political expediency.

Plus a lot of those trains are electric. A comparatively small proportion of the MML will be.

What annoys me is that there's clearly a more sensible plan to withdraw a small number of HST's and modify the rest as much as possible, yet it seems like someone may be trying to go above and beyond what is sensible to suck up to the powers that be.

 

[yorksrob]

And that's the point: do Abellio understand the passenger flows?

They are taking a huge gamble on it, even more so when you consider that Derby is still an important railway town and there are several senior railway people who use the route regularly. It's the local route for Modern Railways' Ian Walmsley, for instance.

I suppose we shall see !

 

[43096]

I'd just prefer it if the didn't gamble with the train service for the sake of political expediency.

Plus a lot of those trains are electric. A comparatively small proportion of the MML will be.

What annoys me is that there's clearly a more sensible plan to withdraw a small number of HST's and modify the rest as much as possible, yet it seems like someone may be trying to go above and beyond what is sensible to suck up to the powers that be.

It's about PRM compliance, the artificial deadline for it and DfT's failure to do anything about it on some franchises. I can see why Abellio have ended up with this plan, but really the problem is the DfT.

 

[yorksrob]

It's about PRM compliance, the artificial deadline for it and DfT's failure to do anything about it on some franchises. I can see why Abellio have ended up with this plan, but really the problem is the DfT.

Undoubtedly so. The DfT needs to guarantee that passengers won't be disadvantaged in terms of either reliability or capacity during the transition to the new trains, and if that means issuing sensible derogations to do it, so be it.

 

[tbtc]

The DfT needs to guarantee that passengers won't be disadvantaged in terms of either reliability or capacity during the transition to the new trains

The DfT have previously permitted a timetable change that meant no departures from London to Sheffield between 17:00 and 18:00 on weekdays (as well as slowing services from London to the East Midlands down) because Thameslink is more important. So worrying about a six coach HST being replaced by a five coach 180 isn't going to have them sweating, sadly! The franchise isn't as important as the ECML/WCMNL franchises, fair enough, but the Thameslink changes have made it even less important. Things will probably get even worse before they start getting better (apart from Corby; Corby is getting some nice modern twelve coach electric trains - lots of floating voters in Corby!).

 

[yorksrob]

The DfT have previously permitted a timetable change that meant no departures from London to Sheffield between 17:00 and 18:00 on weekdays (as well as slowing services from London to the East Midlands down) because Thameslink is more important. So worrying about a six coach HST being replaced by a five coach 180 isn't going to have them sweating, sadly! The franchise isn't as important as the ECML/WCMNL franchises, fair enough, but the Thameslink changes have made it even less important. Things will probably get even worse before they start getting better (apart from Corby; Corby is getting some nice modern twelve coach electric trains - lots of floating voters in Corby!).

I said that the DfT "needs to", although I share your concern that it won't.

Replacing a six carriage HST with a 5 carriage 180 could probably be glossed over, but an 8 carriage one ?

I understand why the Thameslinks need to be prioritised, although it still feels like putting the Golden Arrow behind the Orpington stopper, but the aquisition of the GC HST's has shown that such things can be overcome with enough rolling stock. They won't be able to smooth over such things with an over-stretched fleet.

 

[whhistle]

How can they only replace some HST's, yet have a "fully compliant" fleet by 2020 ?

Because half of the HSTs will be replaced by 222s (from the Corby service) and 180s.
The other half could be replaced by East Coast HSTs, which apparently are as "fully compliant" within the criteria set down. This doesn't mean they have automatic doors, just whatever the differences are between EC HSTs and MML HSTs means they are compliant enough to tick that box.

 

[yorksrob]

Because half of the HSTs will be replaced by 222s (from the Corby service) and 180s.
The other half could be replaced by East Coast HSTs, which apparently are as "fully compliant" within the criteria set down. This doesn't mean they have automatic doors, just whatever the differences are between EC HSTs and MML HSTs means they are compliant enough to tick that box.

That could be the plan, although even EC HST's wouldn't be "fully compliant" by a long chalk. 1st class will no longer have an accessible type toilet, as an example.

 

[InTheEastMids]

That could be the plan, although even EC HST's wouldn't be "fully compliant" by a long chalk. 1st class will no longer have an accessible type toilet, as an example.

Think the word for all this clusterfudge is "compliantiness*". Neither EC nor MML HST coaches are fully compliant, but the EC ones may have greater compliantiness.

*Ie 'compliant' and 'compliance' are pretty binary conditions - something either is or isn't compliant. The reality of the railway seems to be that it's a more analogue, sliding scale type of thing. I felt that English needed a bit of an update to bring it into compliance with the railway.

 

[swt_passenger]

It's a rumour that does seem to keep resurfacing from various quarters though. One can only hope that if EMR are pondering this idea, they think again soon.

I’m surprised this actually resulted in a new thread, it’s been discussed regularly for the last couple of months in the existing “new trains for the East Midlands” thread... The consensus of that thread was that the 180s will replace the former GC HSTs, wasn’t it?

 

[yorksrob]

I’m surprised this actually resulted in a new thread, it’s been discussed regularly for the last couple of months in the existing “new trains for the East Midlands” thread... The consensus of that thread was that the 180s will replace the former GC HSTs, wasn’t it?

I don't think there was a consensus. We never really get the full truth from EMR as to what they are planning.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Think the word for all this clusterfudge is "compliantiness*". Neither EC nor MML HST coaches are fully compliant, but the EC ones may have greater compliantiness.

*Ie 'compliant' and 'compliance' are pretty binary conditions - something either is or isn't compliant. The reality of the railway seems to be that it's a more analogue, sliding scale type of thing. I felt that English needed a bit of an update to bring it into compliance with the railway.

I think there has to be a level of pragmatism here. Delays in introducing new stock have meant that it's going to be a case of either give derogations and flexibility provided the TOC is working towards full compliance on a reasonable timescale, or you're going to have to cut capacity and bustitute to the extent it'll be near impossible for a wheelchair user to travel at all for a couple of years. Which is better?

Clearly actually complying is best, but then a concrete, realistic plan to compliance is better than just throwing your arms up and saying can't.

 

[yorksrob]

I think there has to be a level of pragmatism here. Delays in introducing new stock have meant that it's going to be a case of either give derogations and flexibility provided the TOC is working towards full compliance on a reasonable timescale, or you're going to have to cut capacity and bustitute to the extent it'll be near impossible for a wheelchair user to travel at all for a couple of years. Which is better?

Clearly actually complying is best, but then a concrete, realistic plan to compliance is better than just throwing your arms up and saying can't.

Which is presumably what EMT have been contemplating with smaller scale alterations to their HST's.

 

[Robinson102]

I’m surprised this actually resulted in a new thread, it’s been discussed regularly for the last couple of months in the existing “new trains for the East Midlands” thread... The consensus of that thread was that the 180s will replace the former GC HSTs, wasn’t it?

That is what I suspected back in April when I saw the Rail article.

However in the article I quoted from this months Railway Magazine, it states that EMR are intending to withdraw all their HSTs by December 2020 - but gives no clue as to what they are intending to replace them with.

Hence I started this conversation to see if anyone knew anything else with regards to EMRs "plan".

 

[InTheEastMids]

I think there has to be a level of pragmatism here. Delays in introducing new stock have meant that it's going to be a case of either give derogations and flexibility provided the TOC is working towards full compliance on a reasonable timescale, or you're going to have to cut capacity and bustitute to the extent it'll be near impossible for a wheelchair user to travel at all for a couple of years. Which is better?

Clearly actually complying is best, but then a concrete, realistic plan to compliance is better than just throwing your arms up and saying can't.

Don't think many are saying "let's not be pragmatic and withdraw all non-compliant stock", I'm not. However, the 'realistic plan to compliance' is something the railway has manifestly failed to plan or deliver, and everybody just seems to have shrugged their shoulders and nobody has taken any accountability (yet).

 

[whhistle]

I don't think there was a consensus. We never really get the full truth from EMR as to what they are planning.

EMR have confirmed internally they are bringing in the 180s.

 

[yorksrob]

EMR have confirmed internally they are bringing in the 180s.

It's not that bit that's in doubt.

What we all want to know is when they plan to withdraw all the HST's, and if this is earlier than the introduction of the new fleet, how they intend to stretch a much smaller fleet to provide similar capacity and reliability to today, for two years. This is the missing bit.

 

[whhistle]

What we all want to know is when they plan to withdraw all the HST's, and if this is earlier than the introduction of the new fleet, how they intend to stretch a much smaller fleet to provide similar capacity and reliability to today, for two years.

I don't see anyone else wondering this...

Not sure how many 222s are on the Corby route each day.
EMT have 15 HST sets. Not sure how many are in daily use. Bearing in mind doesn't one sit at Cricklewood all day? And if one has been with East Coast for ages, that's clearly not really needed either.

5 class 180s mean only 10 HSTs need replacing.
Not a huge amount really and considering what they're planning for Greater Anglia (IE: high stock utilisation), the fact one HST set has been out on the East Coast and perhaps others sitting around all day. It's really not that difficult.

Either that or they'll cancel services, or they didn't mean the 2020 date.
I'm sure the plan will come to light in the near future.

 

[222001]

Not sure how many 222s are on the Corby route each day.

They diagram share with the Nottingham stoppers - but it would account for around 4 sets.

 

[Bikeman78]

It's about PRM compliance, the artificial deadline for it and DfT's failure to do anything about it on some franchises. I can see why Abellio have ended up with this plan, but really the problem is the DfT.

What is the current end date for the lease on the 360s? I'll be surprised if anything is available to replace them by the end of the year. I would have thought that removing the 321s would be the priority on the GEML.

 

[cactustwirly]

I don't see anyone else wondering this...

Not sure how many 222s are on the Corby route each day.
EMT have 15 HST sets. Not sure how many are in daily use. Bearing in mind doesn't one sit at Cricklewood all day? And if one has been with East Coast for ages, that's clearly not really needed either.

5 class 180s mean only 10 HSTs need replacing.
Not a huge amount really and considering what they're planning for Greater Anglia (IE: high stock utilisation), the fact one HST set has been out on the East Coast and perhaps others sitting around all day. It's really not that difficult.

Either that or they'll cancel services, or they didn't mean the 2020 date.
I'm sure the plan will come to light in the near future.

There's 3 4 car diagrams for Corby services and 8 HST diagrams the 8 cars on Weekdays, 1.5 diagrams for the 6 car sets, of which 3 8 cars sit at Cricklewood between the peaks, and the .5 6 car HST doesn't come out until 7pm.
There is room for tweaking the diagrams to remove a few sets.

 

[43096]

I don't see anyone else wondering this...

Not sure how many 222s are on the Corby route each day.
EMT have 15 HST sets. Not sure how many are in daily use. Bearing in mind doesn't one sit at Cricklewood all day? And if one has been with East Coast for ages, that's clearly not really needed either.

5 class 180s mean only 10 HSTs need replacing.
Not a huge amount really and considering what they're planning for Greater Anglia (IE: high stock utilisation), the fact one HST set has been out on the East Coast and perhaps others sitting around all day. It's really not that difficult.

Either that or they'll cancel services, or they didn't mean the 2020 date.
I'm sure the plan will come to light in the near future.

EMT have 12 HST sets, not 15. 8 from 9 diagrammed for 8 car sets, 2 from 3 6 car. The 6 car sets are not intensively used though and 3 of the 8 cars sit at Cricklewood between the peaks.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't see anyone else wondering this...

Not sure how many 222s are on the Corby route each day.
EMT have 15 HST sets. Not sure how many are in daily use. Bearing in mind doesn't one sit at Cricklewood all day? And if one has been with East Coast for ages, that's clearly not really needed either.

5 class 180s mean only 10 HSTs need replacing.
Not a huge amount really and considering what they're planning for Greater Anglia (IE: high stock utilisation), the fact one HST set has been out on the East Coast and perhaps others sitting around all day. It's really not that difficult.

Either that or they'll cancel services, or they didn't mean the 2020 date.
I'm sure the plan will come to light in the near future.

It's more or less what we've all been speculating on over the whole thread.

The "either that or they'll cancel services" is precisely the problem for those of us who use the line regularly.

That's why I'm looking for answers.

 

[A0wen]

But that doesn't help you if you're traveling on an ex HST service from Leicester, and you're crammed in a 4 car 222

Speaking from personal experience - several times over the last couple of years I got on one of the evening peak (pre the last TT change) stoppers from St Pancras which would be standing room only to either Luton or Bedford and then half empty thereon.

The 12 car 360s will more than cope with the Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough traffic and probably still have seats at Luton.

The Leicester and beyond may be busy with a 4 car Meridian but are unlikely to be standing room only on leaving Leicester - it's only the stops from Kettering onwards which are filling such services up at present - and since they won't have those stops in the future, it will be less of an issue.

 

[cactustwirly]

Speaking from personal experience - several times over the last couple of years I got on one of the evening peak (pre the last TT change) stoppers from St Pancras which would be standing room only to either Luton or Bedford and then half empty thereon.

The 12 car 360s will more than cope with the Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough traffic and probably still have seats at Luton.

The Leicester and beyond may be busy with a 4 car Meridian but are unlikely to be standing room only on leaving Leicester - it's only the stops from Kettering onwards which are filling such services up at present - and since they won't have those stops in the future, it will be less of an issue.

I was talking about the HST services which don't normally stop at stations south of Market Harborough on weekdays.
These load pretty well throughout the day, probably around 75-80% full.
A 4 car Meridian only has 132 standard class seats, whereas which is about 1/3 of the capacity of a HST.

Many existing Meridian services run very full as well, it's not uncommon to stand from Nottingham to Leicester, and I've seen the stopper full and standing from Leicester running south as well.

 

[A0wen]

I was talking about the HST services which don't normally stop at stations south of Market Harborough on weekdays.
These load pretty well throughout the day, probably around 75-80% full.
A 4 car Meridian only has 132 standard class seats, whereas which is about 1/3 of the capacity of a HST.

Many existing Meridian services run very full as well, it's not uncommon to stand from Nottingham to Leicester, and I've seen the stopper full and standing from Leicester running south as well.

You don't see that many 4 car Meridians as a rule - particularly in the peaks, they tend to be linked up with a 5 car - which gives 324 seats in standard - a TSO has about 80 seats, so if you've got 5 x TSO that's 400, 75% full = 300.

 

[cactustwirly]

You don't see that many 4 car Meridians as a rule - particularly in the peaks, they tend to be linked up with a 5 car - which gives 324 seats in standard - a TSO has about 80 seats, so if you've got 5 x TSO that's 400, 75% full = 300.

You see a lot in the off peak.
The Corby electrification only releases 3 units, so they don't have enough 222s to replace every HST for a double unit, even with the 180s