England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Bletchleyite]

I have to say I’m not entirely convinced we’d have had such good results as Sweden, as we just don’t seem to have the mentality they have there.

This, I think, is key. It's said that if you compare their natural altruistic thinking and our relative lack of it, we actually ended up in a similar level of lockdown (at least so far as is consequential) - them voluntarily, us through legislation.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Looking like T2 in Greater Manchester. Reasonable given cases there are generally quite high, but have increased gradually in most regions unlike Nottingham and Liverpool where they came seemingly almost out of nowhere.

 

[takno]

And yet it hasn't been adopted by one single other country in the world. Why not, we can ask ourselves?

In a chunk of the world the government ordering people to "lock down" doesn't effectively mean anything because they don't have enough day-to-day control of what's going on to enforce a lock-down, or too little of the population has the ability to conduct their day-to-day affairs from their sofa. Doing this sort of thing for more than a month and without an actual pressing very-deadly disease to justify it is really a very decadent proposition that only applies to richer nations in the last ten years or so.

There's also a lot of countries with suspiciously low figures who "don't need to lock down", just because they've had the good sense to not obsessively count, and don't have alarmingly high numbers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Looking like T2 in Greater Manchester. Reasonable given cases there are generally quite high, but have increased gradually in most regions unlike Nottingham and Liverpool where they came seemingly almost out of nowhere.

"out of the students" you mean

 

[johntea]

Brilliant when you find out a Nightingale hospital you're involved in (from an IT point of view) has been asked to prepare to be available again from the scientists on a news conference before you hear it 'first hand'!

 

[radamfi]

I have to say I’m not entirely convinced we’d have had such good results as Sweden, as we just don’t seem to have the mentality they have there. We also have the disadvantage of a very high population density (though Scotland is considerably less dense, and they don’t seem to be deriving much benefit from that?). On balance however whilst we might not have got as good a result as Sweden it would almost certainly have been better than the current “worst of all worlds” approach we seem to have here.

The most densely populated country in Europe got a bit of flak initially for its "intelligent lockdown" (for example keeping shops open) but didn't get much publicity because of Sweden. Everyone was puzzled how they managed to get the virus down to such low levels so quickly. But now they are getting a lot of flak for having a particularly bad second wave.

Not sure what density has to do with it. If everyone lived in Tokyo-style pod hotels it would make no difference as long as people were 2 metres apart. If anything, the impersonal nature of cities could be an asset. The virus is being transmitted more by socialising between people who know each other, not so much between strangers.

 

[adc82140]

Brilliant when you find out a Nightingale hospital you're involved in (from an IT point of view) has been asked to prepare to be available again from the scientists on a news conference before you hear it 'first hand'!

The Nightingales should be used in the same way as the Exeter one is: A one stop cancer centre to free up space in the hospitals for Covid. Otherwise where are the ITU staff for a Covid Nightingale going to come from?

 

[ChrisC]

Looking like T2 in Greater Manchester. Reasonable given cases there are generally quite high, but have increased gradually in most regions unlike Nottingham and Liverpool where they came seemingly almost out of nowhere.

"out of the students" you mean

Nottingham is an interesting one. Right through from the beginning virus levels have remained lower in Nottingham than in most similar sized and types of city. Throughout the original lockdown Nottingham never saw the same level of cases as in neighbouring Derby and certainly not as in Leicester. The number of cases in many of the more rural areas of Nottinghamshire have been no higher than parts of neighbouring rural Lincolnshire.

Now Nottingham suddenly has the highest level of infection in England. Strangely it doesn’t seem to be getting the same amount of media coverage as areas further north like Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle.
Numbers have certainly rocketed up during the last 3 weeks and this has been especially so in the council wards of the city where most of the students live. I hope that the new 3 tier system can focus directly in a more localised way than previous lockdowns but I don’t think that will not be the case. The whole,of Nottingham could be put in tier 3 and it’s even looking like the county will also face the same restrictions, despite a number of newly elected Conservative MPs in previous Labour areas, arguing strongly for this not to happen.

I live in a rural area of Nottinghamshire but I fear that a walking holiday I have planned for next week staying at a hotel in the Cotswolds will have to be cancelled, because I will not be able to travel out of Nottinghamshire and overnight stays will be banned because of my postcode.

 

[radamfi]

Nottingham is an interesting one. Right through from the beginning virus levels have remained lower in Nottingham than in most similar sized and types of city. Throughout the original lockdown Nottingham never saw the same level of cases as in neighbouring Derby and certainly not as in Leicester. The number of cases in many of the more rural areas of Nottinghamshire have been no higher than parts of neighbouring rural Lincolnshire.

Nottingham's boundaries lead to distorted statistics, because so much of "Nottingham" is outside the city boundary. Even Nottingham Forest don't play in Nottingham.

 

[Trackman]

Looking like T2 in Greater Manchester. Reasonable given cases there are generally quite high, but have increased gradually in most regions unlike Nottingham and Liverpool where they came seemingly almost out of nowhere.

I certainty hope so, but from the MEN:

Greater Manchester will reportedly be placed in the highest category - Tier 3 - along with Liverpool and Newcastle, where infection rates are also soaring.

 

[ChrisC]

Nottingham's boundaries lead to distorted statistics, because so much of "Nottingham" is outside the city boundary. Even Nottingham Forest don't play in Nottingham.

That’s always been the problem with Nottingham. Large parts of the city conurbation, which many consider to be part of the city are outside the city boundary and are actually in the county council area. For example, West Bridgford is in Rushcliffe, Beeston in Broxtowe and the whole of Arnold, Carlton and Netherfield are in Gedling. Therefore small villages in very rural areas, at the other end of these council areas, which may be 10 or more miles from the the City of Nottingham, could be included with the city. There has only been one recorded death, from Coronavirus, in my rural ward of Gedling Borough, but we are likely to be included with Nottingham in a Tier 3 lockdown.

 

[C J Snarzell]

There was suggestion Greater Manchester would be put in Tier 2 but I reckon we are doomed for Tier 3 with our neighbours in Merseyside.

Effectively we are back to the grim days at the end of March, only this time the clocks are about to go back instead of forward. This new wave of restrictions will definately have more of an impact on everyone than the original lockdown.

CJ

 

[kristiang85]

Effectively we are back to the grim days at the end of March, only this time the clocks are about to go back instead of forward. This new wave of restrictions will definately have more of an impact on everyone than the original lockdown.

CJ

Indeed; we were blessed with a very unusually warm and sunny spring, and I seem to remember only about two days of rain in the first two months of lockdown. That made it so much easier.

Restriction fatigue, plus darker nights and colder days, plus a lot of people beginning to feel the financial pinch (markedly in the areas primed for lockdown measures), means it's going to be an incredibly grim winter for some, especially on the mental health side.

The festivities and atmosphere around Christmas usually make this time of year far more bearable, but given all that is being banned this year, the 'January depression' will probably kick in for early November for many.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Indeed; we were blessed with a very unusually warm and sunny spring, and I seem to remember only about two days of rain in the first two months of lockdown. That made it so much easier.

Restriction fatigue, plus darker nights and colder days, plus a lot of people beginning to feel the financial pinch (markedly in the areas primed for lockdown measures), means it's going to be an incredibly grim winter for some, especially on the mental health side.

The festivities and atmosphere around Christmas usually make this time of year far more bearable, but given all that is being banned this year, the 'January depression' will probably kick in for early November for many.

And last until the clocks go forward. Maybe GMT should be banned this winter; mind you the mornings will be darker. But does that matter so much when so many people WFH for the foreseeable?

Nottingham is an interesting one. Right through from the beginning virus levels have remained lower in Nottingham than in most similar sized and types of city. Throughout the original lockdown Nottingham never saw the same level of cases as in neighbouring Derby and certainly not as in Leicester. The number of cases in many of the more rural areas of Nottinghamshire have been no higher than parts of neighbouring rural Lincolnshire.

Now Nottingham suddenly has the highest level of infection in England. Strangely it doesn’t seem to be getting the same amount of media coverage as areas further north like Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle.
Numbers have certainly rocketed up during the last 3 weeks and this has been especially so in the council wards of the city where most of the students live. I hope that the new 3 tier system can focus directly in a more localised way than previous lockdowns but I don’t think that will not be the case. The whole,of Nottingham could be put in tier 3 and it’s even looking like the county will also face the same restrictions, despite a number of newly elected Conservative MPs in previous Labour areas, arguing strongly for this not to happen.

I live in a rural area of Nottinghamshire but I fear that a walking holiday I have planned for next week staying at a hotel in the Cotswolds will have to be cancelled, because I will not be able to travel out of Nottinghamshire and overnight stays will be banned because of my postcode.

I hope you don't get penalised for being in rural Notts. At least the whole of Greater Manchester is urbanised. Nottinghamshire has swathes of open countryside and small villages.

 

[kristiang85]

And last until the clocks go forward. Maybe GMT should be banned this winter; mind you the mornings will be darker. But does that matter so much when so many people WFH for the foreseeable?

I thought there was a plan to get rid of the winter clocks change at some point (I think it was mentioned last year); but yes now would be a sensible time to implement it.

 

[MikeWM]

I thought there was a plan to get rid of the winter clocks change at some point (I think it was mentioned last year); but yes now would be a sensible time to implement it.

That's a European Union thing - they're intending to require all its member states to stop changing, starting next October. (I think the original plan was earlier than that, but like all such things, it has been delayed somewhat).

Of course we don't therefore *have* to do that now. I'm not aware that the government has a policy on it, either way.

 

[radamfi]

That's a European Union thing - they're intending to require all its member states to stop changing, starting next October. (I think the original plan was earlier than that, but like all such things, it has been delayed somewhat).

Of course we don't therefore *have* to do that now. I'm not aware that the government has a policy on it, either way.

Surely it would be impractical to have different time between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland?

 

[island]

Surely it would be impractical to have different time between Northern Ireland and the rest of Ireland?

There are a great many things impractical about Brexit.

 

[Howardh]

Prof Van Tam on TV today -

UK coronavirus: Chris Whitty warns tier 3 measures alone 'not enough to get on top' of spread — as it happened

Boris Johnson says national lockdown now ‘would do immediate harm’ as he sets out England’s new three-tier lockdown restrictions

www.theguardian.com

• Van-Tam implicitly backed plans to close pubs in places with very high rates of infection.

  This has been contentious because critics of the plans says there is no medical evidence to justify this policy. Asked about the scientific evidence to justify hospitality closures, Van-Tam said he did not want to pre-empt what the PM might say. But he quoted Japanese government advice saying people should avoid the three-Cs: closed spaces, crowded places and close contact. Van-Tam said he would add two other risk factors: the duration you spend in a place, and the volume at which you talk. All of which sounded like a roundabout way of saying pubs pose a risk.
  [*]

Pub? He's basically just described a classroom.

 

[Peter Sarf]

There was suggestion Greater Manchester would be put in Tier 2 but I reckon we are doomed for Tier 3 with our neighbours in Merseyside.

Effectively we are back to the grim days at the end of March, only this time the clocks are about to go back instead of forward. This new wave of restrictions will definately have more of an impact on everyone than the original lockdown.

CJ

I am afraid so. I can see Covid will be a big threat right through winter. Unlike the last lockdown it will coincide with long dark winter evenings. The time is approaching when viruses usually do their worst. Everyone cooped up indoors - in rooms with no ventilation. I would like to go for windows open and the heating on but her indoors won't have it !.

I thought there was a plan to get rid of the winter clocks change at some point (I think it was mentioned last year); but yes now would be a sensible time to implement it.

If they got rid of the clock changes it would logically be to get rid of British Summer Time. So we would be on GMT all year round. It has always seemed to me that most people view the clocks going back in October as what they want to avoid. The clocks would not go back in October because they would not have gone forward in Spring !. So it would get dark an hour early all year round. Although the secret is to get up earlier.

 

[takno]

Prof Van Tam on TV today -

UK coronavirus: Chris Whitty warns tier 3 measures alone 'not enough to get on top' of spread — as it happened

Boris Johnson says national lockdown now ‘would do immediate harm’ as he sets out England’s new three-tier lockdown restrictions

www.theguardian.com

Pub? He's basically just described a classroom.

I haven't seen a crowded pub in months, or had to raise my voice in one, or had close contact in one with people outside my group. Did he have anything to add that related to the actual real world?

 

[Peter Sarf]

I haven't seen a crowded pub in months, or had to raise my voice in one, or had close contact in one with people outside my group. Did he have anything to add that related to the actual real world?

I wouldn't know. I have not been to the pub since this all started but apparently the atmosphere just is not the same so I guess rather quiet.

But then I have been trying to reduce shopping to as few trips as possible. Easily achieved by going on my own as I buy more quicker. Without the missus chopping and changing, picking things up and putting them back. Then going shopping a few days later for what she originally rejected anyway !.

I am just trying to avoid enclosed spaces and close encounters as much as possible. But then, for me, I get plenty of social interaction at work. If you are losing your job and getting cut off that would be hell. For me I get my exercise on the cheap by going or walks - does not matter about the cold but rain stops me.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

BBC and Sky both reporting that travel restrictions will be guidance and not law. This appears to have particularly angered the Welsh Government who appear to be suggesting some new legal restrictions or border closures to prevent the English coming in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

BBC and Sky both reporting that travel restrictions will be guidance and not law. This appears to have particularly angered the Welsh Government who appear to be suggesting some new legal restrictions or border closures to prevent the English coming in.

Who bets that's so they don't have to pay hotel owners off?

 

[Peter Sarf]

BBC and Sky both reporting that travel restrictions will be guidance and not law. This appears to have particularly angered the Welsh Government who appear to be suggesting some new legal restrictions or border closures to prevent the English coming in.

Does irk me that there is not a consistent approach across the UK. Would prefer it if the only differences were for badly affected regions.

Who bets that's so they don't have to pay hotel owners off?

One way or another this Covid-19 is going to cost. I just wonder which is the least worst- burying the NHS or bankrupting business. My fear is burying the NHS probably leads to bankrupting business anyway !.

 

[Chester1]

Who bets that's so they don't have to pay hotel owners off?

It will be partly that and because many people will just travel abroad instead. If they tried to stop people the fines would amount to little more than an exit tax that many would be happy to pay.

 

[Peter Sarf]

It will be partly that and because many people will just travel abroad instead. If they tried to stop people the fines would amount to little more than an exit tax that many would be happy to pay.

Lets not underestimate how many will just ignore the rules anyway. Rules have to be enforceable !.

 

[packermac]

Brilliant when you find out a Nightingale hospital you're involved in (from an IT point of view) has been asked to prepare to be available again from the scientists on a news conference before you hear it 'first hand'!

What is so unusual about that. If you work for FTSE 500 company most important announcement have to be made to the stock exchange around 08:00 before staff are told, so you heard it on the news going into work, just the way things are.

 

[Trackman]

BBC and Sky both reporting that travel restrictions will be guidance and not law. This appears to have particularly angered the Welsh Government who appear to be suggesting some new legal restrictions or border closures to prevent the English coming in.

I've read different for T3 areas, but hey-ho we'll have to wait until 3.30.

I wouldn't know. I have not been to the pub since this all started but apparently the atmosphere just is not the same so I guess rather quiet.

I've not either, and my local pub only opened last Thursday so unlikely to last a week.
I feel guilty not going in supporting them, but the atmosphere would definitely not be same plus I cannot sit or stand at the bar- my usual haunt with friends. Table service only so I could be stuck on my own or near someone I'd rather not.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lets not underestimate how many will just ignore the rules anyway. Rules have to be enforceable !.

Banning travel abroad is about the easiest thing to do.