England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Bletchleyite]

You mean you can't get "Aaarnfnaarf" down South?? Well that's me staying up North forever!

Well, obviously you can buy rice and chips and do it yourself with some spare. But you do get funny looks if you order it!

 

[scrapy]

...but gyms can apparently stay open so out of the window goes the supposedly simple to understand tier system anyway!

Yes soft play centres and car boot sales have to close in Lancashire but can remain open in Liverpool though! Madness.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes soft play centres have to close in Lancashire but can remain open in Liverpool though! Madness.

The stupidity is the local sop. There should be 5 standard stages (1 = something like the summer, max group 30, 5 = full lockdown as per March or even stricter) and no local variation at all, with clear definitions of when they kick in and back out, either based on cases per 100,000 or based on percentage of hospital capacity used.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

...but gyms can apparently stay open so out of the window goes the supposedly simple to understand tier system anyway!

So they're basically actually in tier 2½ then...?

 

[Bletchleyite]

So they're basically actually in tier 2½ then...?

I've heard it described as "tier 2.9", and it's ridiculous.

Actual standardisation is needed.

 

[duncanp]

The stupidity is the local sop. There should be 5 standard stages (1 = something like the summer, max group 30, 5 = full lockdown as per March or even stricter) and no local variation at all, with clear definitions of when they kick in and back out, either based on cases per 100,000 or based on percentage of hospital capacity used.

I agree with this, and also for the various "circuit breaker" lockdown proposals, as there is no clear criteria for when they will be lifted, nor is there any suggestion as to what will happen afterwards.

The criteria for moving up an down a level should also include how fast the infection rate is rising, and particularly the age distribution of new cases. If most of the new cases are amongst young people, which would be the case in student areas, then the expected number of hospitalisations will be lower then if the new cases are largely among older people.

The government actuary's department should really be analysing the new case data continually, to predict the effect on the NHS, so that resources such as medical staff and testing capacity can be allocated accordingly.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I've heard it described as "tier 2.9", and it's ridiculous.

Actual standardisation is needed.

I agree. I thought the whole point of the tier system as to have a single standard set of rules in each level so it would be easier to understand? While I didn't expect the system to last long - none of the others have - I didn't expect it to effectively collapse after just four days!

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair to the system designers (not that I'm advocating all aspects of it) they did say from the start that tier three would have localised variations. One and two have standardised rules (not that it makes much difference since we all seem to be heading towards tier 3 anyway !).

 

[Bletchleyite]

To be fair to the system designers (not that I'm advocating all aspects of it) they did say from the start that tier three would have localised variations. One and two have standardised rules (not that it makes much difference since we all seem to be heading towards tier 3 anyway !).

I know, though not having localised variations is essentially the whole point, and so the tiers become meaningless.

 

[jtuk]

Lancashire is moving to tier 3, with Johnson due to make a formal announcement shortly according to Sky and BBC News.

I hope the locktivists at the council are happy.

They got a £42m bribe in the process, so I'd say they'll be alright

 

[yorksrob]

I know, though not having localised variations is essentially the whole point, and so the tiers become meaningless.

Indeed, although I feel that the tier 3 restrictions are more meaningless than most - given that their ineffectiveness has seemingly been acknowledged by the health experts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed, although I feel that the tier 3 restrictions are more meaningless than most - given that their ineffectiveness has seemingly been acknowledged by the health experts.

To be fair what Whitty said was that the base level 3 is meaningless, it only has meaning with locally added measures chosen from a menu (pick any 5, sort of thing).

 

[MikeWM]

Oh, this is preposterous. They went to the effort of producing extensive SIs for each level to 'standardise' and 'simplify' understanding of the law - which given the state the legislation had got into was a fairly good idea, whether you agree with the concept or not - and within *4 days* they're complicating it.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1131/regulation/3/made

Liverpool City Region
1. The businesses and services in this paragraph are restricted businesses and restricted services in those areas listed in Schedule 2 in relation to Liverpool City Region—
(a)betting shops and adult gaming centres;
(b)casinos;
(c)indoor gyms, fitness and dance studios;
(d)indoor sports facilities.

Lancashire
2.—(1) The businesses and services in this paragraph are restricted businesses and restricted services in those areas listed in Schedule 2 in relation to Lancashire—
(a)betting shops and adult gaming centres;
(b)casinos;
(c)bingo halls;
(d)soft play areas;
(e)car boot sales.

So gyms are fine in Preston but not in Liverpool, but car boot sales are ok in Liverpool but not in Preston?

Every time you think it has got as ridiculous as possible, they find another level of stupidity.

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair what Whitty said was that the base level 3 is meaningless, it only has meaning with locally added measures chosen from a menu (pick any 5, sort of thing).

I suppose that once you get beyond stoping households mixing indoors, the remaining measures are either chicken feed (in terms of effectiveness) or full lockdown.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I suppose that once you get beyond stoping households mixing indoors, the remaining measures are either chicken feed (in terms of effectiveness) or full lockdown.

The problem is perhaps more that people ignore that because it's difficult to enforce it bar having the Police go knocking randomly at doors, and there isn't a willingness to do that. Only "project fear" worked, but we're past that now.

Only other thing I think might work is a mandatory prison sentence.

 

[yorksrob]

The problem is perhaps more that people ignore that because it's difficult to enforce it bar having the Police go knocking randomly at doors, and there isn't a willingness to do that. Only "project fear" worked, but we're past that now.

Only other thing I think might work is a mandatory prison sentence.

Well, I can't see that getting very far either TBH.

 

[Domh245]

Only other thing I think might work is a mandatory prison sentence.

There are non-mandatory prison sentences?

 

[MDB1images]

So the Government experts & scientists studied the evidence in great detail and put London in Tier 1 and Lancashire in Tier 2.
Within days both have moved out of the Tiers allocated.
Did the scientists and experts get it so badly wrong(and if so I presume we are not using them anymore)or is this now based on Mayor's/Local leaders realising the higher the Tier the more (of our)money they get can out the Government?

Amazing though that these same experts thought around 4 or 5 weeks ago we'd need restrictions/lockdowns in place for half term and for large parts of the country that's come true.......

 

[bramling]

A dire performance from Boris on this afternoon's press conference. Looks very under the weather, and some very shifty answers - not on top of the brief at all, even by his standards.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are non-mandatory prison sentences?

Some offences carry a mandatory prison sentence, which means a judge cannot give a penalty that does not include a prison sentence. Murder is an (extreme) example. Some carry an optional one, which means a judge can choose whether to impose prison or a fine. Some cannot carry a prison sentence, e.g. railway fare evasion contrary to the RoRA, such offences only carry a prison sentence if any fine imposed is not paid - a judge can't choose to impose one otherwise.

A dire performance from Boris on this afternoon's press conference. Looks very under the weather, and some very shifty answers - not on top of the brief at all, even by his standards.

Yes, I'm unimpressed too. Boris out!

Well, I can't see that getting very far either TBH.

Well, we're going to have to do something to stop people meeting in homes, as this is causing most of the problem.

Perhaps opening pubs and encouraging people to meet there, as they are COVID secure, would be better?

 

[yorksrob]

Well, we're going to have to do something to stop people meeting in homes, as this is causing most of the problem.

Perhaps opening pubs and encouraging people to meet there, as they are COVID secure, would be better?

Well, now there's a policy I could get behind

 

[bramling]

Well, we're going to have to do something to stop people meeting in homes, as this is causing most of the problem.
Perhaps opening pubs and encouraging people to meet there, as they are COVID secure, would be better?

I think this is akin to trying to push back an incoming tide. We need to accept that people just aren't complying with these sorts of measures. Allow people to meet up in pubs and no matter how "Covid secure" they claim to be people are going to mix, especially where alcohol is involved. Close the pubs and people will simply meet in homes, and even if we decide to make it illegal with the risk of harsh fines there simply aren't the police resources to enforce it, plus it introduces snitching which leaves a long-term negative legacy which we could do without. Even during the last lockdown this mixing was clearly happening, which may well have contributed to it taking quite a time for infection rates to drop down.

Especially now this has been going on for so long, people are going to be people, and there's probably not a lot that can be done about that.

 

[Yew]

Oh, this is preposterous. They went to the effort of producing extensive SIs for each level to 'standardise' and 'simplify' understanding of the law - which given the state the legislation had got into was a fairly good idea, whether you agree with the concept or not - and within *4 days* they're complicating it.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1131/regulation/3/made


So gyms are fine in Preston but not in Liverpool, but car boot sales are ok in Liverpool but not in Preston?

Every time you think it has got as ridiculous as possible, they find another level of stupidity.

It almost feels like they're making a hash of it on purpose, to put people off the idea of restrictions. If it wasn't that I don't think Bojo is such an astute political thinker, I'd seriously consider it as an idea.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It almost feels like they're making a hash of it on purpose, to put people off the idea of restrictions. If it wasn't that I don't think Bojo is such an astute political thinker, I'd seriously consider it as an idea.

The problem is that they have blood on their hands as a result. Their cack-handedness is literally killing people.

Crikey, if you're going to do such a bad job, you might as well beef up the NHS and unleash the floodgates, as if we think immunity is short then that way it might die out itself! (I don't want this done, but it'd be better than a half-job).

 

[yorksrob]

I think this is akin to trying to push back an incoming tide. We need to accept that people just aren't complying with these sorts of measures. Allow people to meet up in pubs and no matter how "Covid secure" they claim to be people are going to mix, especially where alcohol is involved. Close the pubs and people will simply meet in homes, and even if we decide to make it illegal with the risk of harsh fines there simply aren't the police resources to enforce it, plus it introduces snitching which leaves a long-term negative legacy which we could do without. Even during the last lockdown this mixing was clearly happening, which may well have contributed to it taking quite a time for infection rates to drop down.

Especially now this has been going on for so long, people are going to be people, and there's probably not a lot that can be done about that.

Perhaps I go to fairly conformist pubs, but in most of them, people seem to be following the rules !

It almost feels like they're making a hash of it on purpose, to put people off the idea of restrictions. If it wasn't that I don't think Bojo is such an astute political thinker, I'd seriously consider it as an idea.

No, I don't think so. I think it's more the impossibility of trying to satisfy the lockdown brigade, without completely destroying the social and economic life of the country.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Yes soft play centres and car boot sales have to close in Lancashire but can remain open in Liverpool though! Madness.

When I found that out I immediately thought - so Lancashire must have very few soft play centres and car boot sales. Wonder how many gyms Liverpool has ?.

So they're basically actually in tier 2½ then...?

No... Teeewananeeeerf.

Indeed, although I feel that the tier 3 restrictions are more meaningless than most - given that their ineffectiveness has seemingly been acknowledged by the health experts.

My question is - how do we know how much worse things would have been without controls ?. The three tier system is never going to bring success unless we understand how bad it could have been without it.

Oh, this is preposterous. They went to the effort of producing extensive SIs for each level to 'standardise' and 'simplify' understanding of the law - which given the state the legislation had got into was a fairly good idea, whether you agree with the concept or not - and within *4 days* they're complicating it.

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1131/regulation/3/made


So gyms are fine in Preston but not in Liverpool, but car boot sales are ok in Liverpool but not in Preston?

Every time you think it has got as ridiculous as possible, they find another level of stupidity.

I would love to know how vague/precise the controls like tiers are in other European countries. Also I would like to see how well their governments are carrying their population with them.

I can imagine Germany being very strict and precise about rules etc and the population adhering to them. Apparently Sweden has a population that have responded with caution without much demand from their government to do so.

A dire performance from Boris on this afternoon's press conference. Looks very under the weather, and some very shifty answers - not on top of the brief at all, even by his standards.

Furthermore I saw Bojo's earlier meeting on TV about the Brexit negotiations. To me he seemed to be almost giggling. It was very very obvious to me how strange he was. He is either cracking up (quite reasonable) or is champing at the bit for a no deal brexit. He seemed more together for the Covid brief this afternoon. The battering the three-tier system is taking must be taking its toll though.

Perhaps we need a coalition to address Covid, the three tiers and whatever evolves next. Then let the Tories carry on with Brexit ?.

You cannot negotiate with a virus......

 

[Bletchleyite]

Perhaps we need a coalition to address Covid, the three tiers and whatever evolves next. Then let the Tories carry on with Brexit ?.

I'm very much in support of a Government of National Unity. We should have had one for Brexit as well.

You cannot negotiate with a virus......

No, but the upside is that it doesn't change its approach based on what it hears you say.

 

[Peter Sarf]

........

No, but the upside is that it doesn't change its approach based on what it hears you say.

you are saying no bluff calling then.
Um - just a mask then

Croydon goes Tier-2 tonight. This means half the population of the UK are under some tier or more stringent.

 

[Bletchleyite]

you are saying no bluff calling then.
Um - just a mask then

Croydon goes Tier-2 tonight. This means half the population of the UK are under some tier or more stringent.

What I'm saying is that "secret squirrelling" is not appropriate in the way it is in wartime, because it's not like the virus can listen in and change its plan. All debate should be public and evidenced.

 

[radamfi]

Croydon goes Tier-2 tonight.

Why just Croydon? I thought it was the whole of London.