Enhanced Passenger Speeds/Service WCML post HS2

[edwin_m]

You could do it after HS2 but run the pendolinos for longer than expected, just like the exhausted HST. That said, the Pendolinos are probably the wrong type of train for the WCML post HS2. On the legacy routes currently served by Avanti on the WCML I think it should see 8-car 350s or AT200s in 2+2 formation, running with several more stops and doors at thirds.

It depends what the concept is for these services, and I don't think anyone knows yet. But there's a risk that if the Pendolinos can't use EPS, they may end up slower than the new 80x or any future unit, which can't use EPS either but has better performance.

 

[Purple Orange]

It depends what the concept is for these services, and I don't think anyone knows yet.

Quite true and I guess it is the answer to that question that will determine the answer to the OP’s question. Running Avanti & Manc-Brum XC services as they are now would be too close to duplicating the HS2 services, or providing too much capacity for the demand required. Plus it goes against the ethos of being able to run more trains as a result of trains running at a uniform speed.

 

[Bald Rick]

I imagine that a 390 with tilt isolated long term (a la XC 221s) is much cheaper to maintain than one without.

It’s marginal. The tilt doesn’t need much maintenance.

You could do it after HS2 but run the pendolinos for longer than expected, just like the exhausted HST. That said, the Pendolinos are probably the wrong type of train for the WCML post HS2. On the legacy routes currently served by Avanti on the WCML I think it should see 8-car 350s or AT200s in 2+2 formation, running with several more stops and doors at thirds.

There will still be a need for some intercity quality, fast services on the WCML. Serving Wolverhampton, Coventry, the Potteries, and of course the non-London intermediate flows. MK is going to be increasingly important.

I still can’t see how journey times north of Lancaster can be maintained without tilt, without major works or bending the laws of physics.

 

[Purple Orange]

There will still be a need for some intercity quality, fast services on the WCML. Serving Wolverhampton, Coventry, the Potteries, and of course the non-London intermediate flows. MK is going to be increasingly important.

I still can’t see how journey times north of Lancaster can be maintained without tilt, without major works or bending the laws of physics.

A 350 or an AT200 can still be Intercity quality, certainly in terms of passenger comfort. TPE managed this when they had 350s on the WCML. I know this is getting in to speculative territory, but a service from Wolverhampton to Euston calling at Sandwell & Dudley, New Street, Bham Intl, Coventry, Rugby, MK, Watford & Euston would be a good fit, with 110 mph stock.

 

[edwin_m]

It’s marginal. The tilt doesn’t need much maintenance.

It was claimed the XC 221s showed a noticeable jump in miles per technical incident when the tilt was isolated. But perhaps the Pendolino tilt is more reliable (IIRC it's electric rather than hydraulic and a newer technology).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It would be better if we knew the scope of the "work in progress" funded by Avanti for their classic WCML services.
I suspect it is evaluation/design of a new speed profile south of Crewe/Weaver Jn/Preston, for the 80x units coming next year.
If anything more than re-signing is needed, I suspect that will be pricey and take longer to implement, and will require DfT approval (under ERMA or the new direct award now being negotiated).
TPE was/is interested in running 397s at higher speeds north of Preston.
But even though it is still First Group, I doubt they have any money to fund an upgrade of MU speeds on the northern WCML.

Then we have HS2, in which Avanti and NR are involved, but driven by HS2 Ltd and wider political issues.
HS2 will not be interested in anything south of Crewe, or doing anything much before opening to Crewe which might be around 2030.
I'm sure a lot of thought will be put in to operation of HS2 non-tilt trains (not yet ordered) on the northern WCML, maybe with significant works including deviations.
Plus maybe resignalling with ETCS.
But none of this will be decided and be "shovel ready" in less than, say, 5 years from now and NR's CP8.

So in the short term I'd expect a modest programme of MU line speed increases south of Crewe/Weaver Jn, without changing the EPS speed profile.
Everything else will be on an HS2 timescale.

But there's quite a list of full-tilt EPS locations on the southern WCML where I doubt the MU speed will match the EPS one.
They would be: Berkhamsted, Linslade, Weedon, Rugby, Atherstone, Lichfield, Armitage-Rugeley, Queensville, Whitmore, Weaver Jn (towards Liverpool).
There are other locations which might just escape an MU restriction - eg Wolverton, Norton Bridge.

Colwich-Stoke-Cheadle Hulme is an EPS route too, with no plans to change for HS2.
Conversely, Crewe-Cheadle Hulme, which will see 3tph HS2 services under HS2a, is not an EPS route and is limited to 110mph PS.

 

[edwin_m]

It would be better if we knew the scope of the "work in progress" funded by Avanti for their classic WCML services.
I suspect it is evaluation/design of a new speed profile south of Crewe/Weaver Jn/Preston, for the 80x units coming next year.
If anything more than re-signing is needed, I suspect that will be pricey and take longer to implement, and will require DfT approval (under ERMA or the new direct award now being negotiated).

There may be a capacity reason to do this, if an 80x on standard speeds is sufficiently slower than a Pendolino to start costing paths. But this may depend on whether post-Covid demand falls enough that the WCML can afford to lose a path or two. There may also be a timetabling solution, such as running the 80x following a Pendolino but in front of a 350.

But there's quite a list of full-tilt EPS locations on the southern WCML where I doubt the MU speed will match the EPS one.
They would be: Berkhamsted, Linslade, Weedon, Rugby, Atherstone, Lichfield, Armitage-Rugeley, Queensville, Whitmore, Weaver Jn (towards Liverpool).

Better acceleration away from the restriction will compensate for this to some extent.

 

[seagull]

It was claimed the XC 221s showed a noticeable jump in miles per technical incident when the tilt was isolated. But perhaps the Pendolino tilt is more reliable (IIRC it's electric rather than hydraulic and a newer technology).

The 390 Pendolino tilt is streets ahead in reliability compared to the 221 Super Voyager tilt, quite rare to have it fail: in part because Voyager tilt stops working if more than one engine shuts down on a set, but also it just seems a more reliable setup. 390 tilt is pneumatic: it uses a lot of air too which appears to be the reason why there is an instruction to temporary isolate tilt if working through a high-speed coasting section (no power from OHLE and therefore compressors not running).

 

[Bald Rick]

Better acceleration away from the restriction will compensate for this to some extent.

Very marginally. Perhaps a second or two at each one.

 

[The Planner]

It would be better if we knew the scope of the "work in progress" funded by Avanti for their classic WCML services.
I suspect it is evaluation/design of a new speed profile south of Crewe/Weaver Jn/Preston, for the 80x units coming next year.
If anything more than re-signing is needed, I suspect that will be pricey and take longer to implement, and will require DfT approval (under ERMA or the new direct award now being negotiated).
TPE was/is interested in running 397s at higher speeds north of Preston.
But even though it is still First Group, I doubt they have any money to fund an upgrade of MU speeds on the northern WCML.

Then we have HS2, in which Avanti and NR are involved, but driven by HS2 Ltd and wider political issues.
HS2 will not be interested in anything south of Crewe, or doing anything much before opening to Crewe which might be around 2030.
I'm sure a lot of thought will be put in to operation of HS2 non-tilt trains (not yet ordered) on the northern WCML, maybe with significant works including deviations.
Plus maybe resignalling with ETCS.
But none of this will be decided and be "shovel ready" in less than, say, 5 years from now and NR's CP8.

So in the short term I'd expect a modest programme of MU line speed increases south of Crewe/Weaver Jn, without changing the EPS speed profile.
Everything else will be on an HS2 timescale.

But there's quite a list of full-tilt EPS locations on the southern WCML where I doubt the MU speed will match the EPS one.
They would be: Berkhamsted, Linslade, Weedon, Rugby, Atherstone, Lichfield, Armitage-Rugeley, Queensville, Whitmore, Weaver Jn (towards Liverpool).
There are other locations which might just escape an MU restriction - eg Wolverton, Norton Bridge.

Colwich-Stoke-Cheadle Hulme is an EPS route too, with no plans to change for HS2.
Conversely, Crewe-Cheadle Hulme, which will see 3tph HS2 services under HS2a, is not an EPS route and is limited to 110mph PS.

I have mentioned it on other threads before. Avanti are funding effectively speed board changes from Euston to Weaver on the main WCML, none of the branches. Plan is to have the speed boards up early/mid next year. HS2 will still have a vested interest in south of Crewe as it isn't confirmed 2A will open at the same time as Phase 1. The train order is this summer from what I am hearing. No plans for any deviations in the short to medium term. Crewe, Warrington, Preston and Carlisle are due for re-signalling, with Winsford and Coal Yard being the problem children at the moment. Ignoring Crewe, don't be surprised to see at least one of them get started before the end of CP7. Crewe Independent lines re-signalling starts next year.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Thanks for the detail, particularly about Crewe.
Presumably Steel Works is in the mix for resignalling, and the long block towards Chester?
Sorry, bit off topic, but it's still 805 territory...

 

[The Planner]

Thanks for the detail, particularly about Crewe.
Presumably Steel Works is in the mix for resignalling, and the long block towards Chester?
Sorry, bit off topic, but it's still 805 territory...

Not that I know of, but there was an aborted scheme to get rid along with Beeston a good few years back.

 

[Bald Rick]

Avanti are funding effectively speed board changes from Euston to Weaver on the main WCML, none of the branches. Plan is to have the speed boards up early/mid next year.

But no changes to SRTs before December 22 at the very earliest.