Ertms

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OwlMan

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ATOC Operations standard department have released in their planning department that the dates for will be ERTMS Introduction as below

Scheme From To
Cambrian 2010
Blackriars & London Bridge T/L 2015
ECML Kings Cross Panel to Welwyn + loop 2018
ECML Peterborough Panel + to Decoy 2019 2020
Peterborough - Bingham via Sleaford 2019
Cornwall 2020
Skegness branch 2020
Ely (excl) - Kings Lynn 2020
Peterborough - Ely (excl) 2020
Llandudno - Holyhead & branches 2020
Carlisle - Newcastle 2020
Cumbrian Coast N 2020
Harrogate line 2020
MML to Loughborough 2021 2022
Coalville freight line 2021
ECML Alnmouth & Tweedmouth 2021 2029
Blyth & Tyne 2021
Gloucester Panel except Bromsgrove 2021
Cumbrian Coast S 2021
Highland line 2021
Stranraer - Ayr 2021
Dunblane (excl) - Dundee (excl) 2021
East Suffolk Line 2022
Norwich - Ipswich (excl) 2022
Ipswich - Harwich - Colchester 2022 2044
Malago - Bridgwater 2022
Plymouth Panel 2022
Fidlers Ferry Freight Line 2022
Yoker Panel 2022
ECML Grantshouse - Monktonhall 2022
Ely (excl) - Bury St Edmunds 2023
Cambridge Panel 2023
Glasgow & South Western 2023
N Notts coalfield / Robin Hood 2024 2027
Chester area 2024 2025
Northenden - Mickle Trafford 2024 2025
Cowlairs panel 2024
Edinburgh West 2024
Aberdeen - Nairn 2024
Dundee (excl) - Aberdeen (excl) 2024
ECML York - Northallerton 2024
Doncaster area 2025
Scarborough & Beverley lines 2025
Hull - Goole/Selby 2025 2051
Hungerford - Woodborough 2025
Merseyrail 2025 2033
Buxton lines 2025
Larbert/Dalmeny - Dundee 2025
West Highland 2025 2040
GWML signals removed 2025 2026
Westbury panel 2026
Exeter panel & Devon Branches 2026
Manchester Piccadilly Panel 2026 2032
Copy Pit - B'pool / Ormskirk & Preston 2026 2029
Sheffield panel + 2027 2032
most of Tyneside panel & Shildon 2027
Ilford - Felixtowe - Colchester (excl) 2027
Settle & Carlisle 2027
Carlisle Panel 2027
Skipton & Ilkley 2028
Chilterns 2028
South Manchester 2028
Barnsley/Huddersfield - Guide Bridge 2028
Leeds & Hambleton area 2029 2035
Wakefield - Knottingley 2029 2031
Cromer branch 2030
WCML Euston - Roade 2030 2035
Aston - Lichfield 2030
WCML Stafford - Weaver Junction 2030 2055
Calder Valley 2030 2031
Manchester North 2030
Southport - Kirkby - St Helens 2030
WCML most of Warrington Panel 2030
Paisley panel 2030 2037
Castleford - Oakenshaw 2031
Wakefield - Halifax 2031
Bedford - Bletchley 2032
Liverpool - Warrington 2033 2050
Upminster LT&S 2034
Guildford panel 2034
Wolverhampton - Shrewsbury 2034 2050
most of Derby Panel + 2035
Ashford panel - North area 2035 2063
Woking panel 2035
Farncombe - Portsmouth 2035 2051
Banbury - Stratford - Snow Hill 2035 2043
Far North 2035 2040
Pelaw & Sunderland 2037
Liverpool St - Hertford 2038
Dorking - Arundel - W Sussex coast 2040 2057
WCML Stoke Panel - Edgeley 2040
Edinburgh station & Haymarket 2040
Basingstoke ASC 2042
Three Spires - Coventry - Stetchford 2042
Hope Valley line 2042 2057
Ashburys 2042
Carstairs - Glasgow Central 2042 2055
Glasgow Central Panel West 2042
Nottm - Newark 2043
Durham Coast 2043
Vale of Glamorgan 2043
Port Talbot Panel (to Port Talbot) 2043
Colchester & Clacton 2044
Cardiff Valleys 2044
WCML Northampton - Colwich 2044
most of Trent + EMCC + 2045 2043
Lincoln area 2045
Gainsboro' - Wrawby - Market Rasen 2045
Barnetby - Scunthorpe 2045
West Burton - Worksop 2045
Feltham - Reading 2045 2056
Heart of Wales Line 2045
North London Line + 2046
Victoria East 2046
Victoria Central 2046
Salisbury - Honiton 2046 2053
Ely - Norwich 2047
N&E Kent Manual 2047 2064
Newport Panel & Branches 2047
Cotswold Line 2047
Malvern Line 2047
Crewe - Shrewsbury 2047
Saltley Panel 2047 2051
Stourbridge - Worcester 2047
Tonbridge - Hastings - Rye 2048 2053
E Sussex Coast 2048
Alton line 2048
Brockenhurst - Dorchester - Yeovil 2048 2057
Birmingham New St & Walsall Panel 2048 2053
Cathcart & Busby 2048
London Bridge 2049
Cardiff Panel GWML 2049
Chester (excl) - Rhyl 2049
Derby - Stoke 2049
Wolverhampton Panel 2049
Bromsgrove - Blackwell 2050
Motherwell Panel - Mossend area 2050 2052
Teesside 2051 2052
Wherry Lines 2051
Leicester - Peterborough 2052
Barnetby - Immingham 2052
Marches Line 2052
Lockerbie - Abington 2052
West Wales 2053
Wimbledon panel 2055 2056
Port Talbot Panel W, N&B 2055
ECML Morpeth Panel 2056
Brighton - Norwood Jn 2058
Liverpool St - Forest Gate 2059
West London Line 2060
Eastleigh Panel 2060
Ashford panel - IECC A & B 2063
 
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Metroland

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What a strange list:

Peterborough - Ely 2020, but Leicester - Peterborough 2052? Yet, the principle service both freight and passenger wise originates beyond the section done in 2020.

The south part of the ECML to be done almost first, but north of Newcastle you have to wait another 30 odd years.

Large parts of the SR have to wait for another 40 odd years, yet branch lines in Wales and Scotland get done years before.
 

DaveNewcastle

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The south part of the ECML to be done almost first, but north of Newcastle you have to wait another 30 odd years.
Its even odder I think, in that most of the ECML sections between Newcastle and Edinburgh appear to be scheduled for completion by 2024 - its just the Morpeth Panel that is delayed until 2056. Perhaps that won't affect the ECML through Morpeth in some way due to the linking of the adjoining Tyneside and Alnmouth panels?

But on the WCML that delay seems to be exactly what is planned with Carstairs to GLC being held back until 2055.

That busy mile between Edinburgh Waverley and Haymarket has to wait until 2040 and some equally busy sections in the South East of England until the 2060's. How many of us will be here to verify this schedule's delivery?
 

OwlMan

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Three Spires - Coventry - Stetchford 2042

What is the point of splitting at Three Spires?. Now that Coventry Prologis Park is closed it does not even have a purpose it is just a intermediate point between Coventry & Nuneaton.
 

ushawk

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2048 down here - so thats only another 36 years away.

East Coastway is due to be resignalled with higher linespeeds soon anyway to move signalling to Three Bridges. Brighton Main Line (as far as Norwood anyway) has to wait until 2058 !!!

Would have thought a lot of those lines will need some sort of resignalling before that though, considering a lot have a wait of over 20 years.
 

The Planner

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Three Spires - Coventry - Stetchford 2042

What is the point of splitting at Three Spires?. Now that Coventry Prologis Park is closed it does not even have a purpose it is just a intermediate point between Coventry & Nuneaton.
Is it the fringe between Rugby and the Cov panel in Saltley ? Makes sense if It is.
 

jopsuk

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Driverless (or at least ATO) trains are possible within the upper levels of ERTMS- once you've got a signalling system that gives a target speed for the train then the automatic part is potnetially a seperate function. using that information.
 

ushawk

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I can't see any trains having drivers in 50 years.
They will, bit like ATO on the Underground i would have thought where a driver still has the controls, that might happen. Wont ever be "driverless" trains on the network, too much of a safety risk as there is more chance of an incident happening on the National Rail network, than say the Underground.
 

Metroland

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I would have thought driverless trains would have object detectors on board, so they could probably react better than a human driver. The technology is already there to have trains drive themselves in terms of speed and braking. Whereas I don't think trains will be unmanned (until we develop some sort of robot) I can see a situation where a driver presses stop and start, and the train does the rest. The job would them be one of a 'train captain', aka DLR where the staff perform customer service/emergency duties.

I think driverless cars will start to become the norm in 20 years time, buses and maybe trucks will follow. I can't see the railway would have any choice but to follow suit.

ERTMS has ATO functions, so there is an upgrade path as it were.
 

michael769

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They will, bit like ATO on the Underground i would have thought where a driver still has the controls, that might happen. Wont ever be "driverless" trains on the network, too much of a safety risk as there is more chance of an incident happening on the National Rail network, than say the Underground.
Given that Google have just been granted a license to run driverless cars on a US freeway I feel you are overly pessimistic about the capabilities of driverlesss trains in the immedate future.

I expect that within 10 years the safety case will be solved, but I suspect a combination of long lead times for adoption of new kit and public acceptance will delay it for many years probably closer to 25-30 years.

Public resistance to the idea will quickly evaporate once we have units technically capable of driving themselves out there - it will just take 1 major strike and the public will turn on drivers, and demand that the auto system is used keep trains running. Once that step is taken the prospect of cutting the wage bill will mean the money to convert the rest of the network and rolling stock will be quickly found.
 

Zoe

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I would expect there to still be a member of staff on board though even if they are not in a cab.
 

Johnuk123

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They will, bit like ATO on the Underground i would have thought where a driver still has the controls, that might happen. Wont ever be "driverless" trains on the network, too much of a safety risk as there is more chance of an incident happening on the National Rail network, than say the Underground.
You may well be right, 50 years though is simply massive in terms of technology.

Saying all that I remember teachers telling me in the late 60's that by the year 2000 nobody will have to work as robots will do it all for us.
 

IanXC

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Given that Google have just been granted a license to run driverless cars on a US freeway I feel you are overly pessimistic about the capabilities of driverlesss trains in the immedate future.
The technology is certainly there, Volvo have undertaken a test on Spanish public roads of a convoy of self driven cars - admittedly with a convoy following a car driven by a professional driver. The difference to completely driverless is not that great from there.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18248841
 

WatcherZero

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It raises some interesting questions if mass rolled out though, for example making way for traffic to join the motorway and if theres a big long convoy only 6 metres apart how do other cars cross the lane to get off the road or join the convoy?
 

HSTEd

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You need some sort of supercomputer to make cars shuffle arounda nd so on.... It would certainly be interesting to watch although it might be a bit scary for the passengers.

As to ATO it is definately the future, it appears that HS2 will be ATO from opening (it gets you a precious extra path thanks to not having to wait for the driver to do something before the computer kicks in).
 

Metroland

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It raises some interesting questions if mass rolled out though, for example making way for traffic to join the motorway and if theres a big long convoy only 6 metres apart how do other cars cross the lane to get off the road or join the convoy?
Or what if someone drops a concrete block from a bridge or a tree falls down on a road, do they all pile up together?

In a recent poll 60% don't mind the idea of driverless trains - although technically those of the Victoria and Central lines are already ATO have have been for years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2011/oct/25/tube-lines-transport
 

John55

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Or what if someone drops a concrete block from a bridge or a tree falls down on a road, do they all pile up together?

In a recent poll 60% don't mind the idea of driverless trains - although technically those of the Victoria and Central lines are already ATO have have been for years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2011/oct/25/tube-lines-transport
Isn't the Jubilee the same now as well?

So London has 4 lines with ATO (at least some of the time).
 

WatcherZero

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Or what if someone drops a concrete block from a bridge or a tree falls down on a road, do they all pile up together?

In a recent poll 60% don't mind the idea of driverless trains - although technically those of the Victoria and Central lines are already ATO have have been for years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2011/oct/25/tube-lines-transport
Thats actually the one thing catered for, if the first car has to stop suddenly the following cars slow down and stop too, their always kept braking distance apart, though braking distance for a computer not a human, as their speed increases the distance between them also increases to reflect stopping distance.
 

Tiny Tim

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It's not possible to predict the development of technology even ten years in advance. Many of the advances we enjoy today were considered impossible (or not considered at all) less than a decade before. Controlled, powered flight, radio, television, radar, home computing and the internet were all just theoretical until very shortly before they actually happened. Many inventions have also failed to make any significant mark: Atmospheric railways, airships, hovercraft, laserdiscs, novelty ringtones and monorails may well be seen as developmental dead ends by future generations. (Although I'm not predicting that). We have zero chance of knowing what will be available as an alternative to ERTMS in the future, the timetable for it's introduction is a fantasy. By 2022 it will be an amusing curiosity, superceded by....well, who can tell?
 

The Snap

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Please excuse my ignornace, but why it is going to take 50 years to implement this system accross the country?!

I just think planning so far in advance to implement a system that could have changed tenfold in that time is just ridiculous. Are ATOC serious with 50 years or is this some kind of joke? ATOC might not even exist then!
 

NSEFAN

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Rich said:
Please excuse my ignornace, but why it is going to take 50 years to implement this system accross the country?!

I just think planning so far in advance to implement a system that could have changed tenfold in that time is just ridiculous. Are ATOC serious with 50 years or is this some kind of joke? ATOC might not even exist then!
I wonder how much of it is to avoid political fallout from mass job losses from closing all of those signal boxes. At least with a gradual program, natural wastage will help absorb some of the job cuts.
 

John55

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Please excuse my ignornace, but why it is going to take 50 years to implement this system accross the country?!

I just think planning so far in advance to implement a system that could have changed tenfold in that time is just ridiculous. Are ATOC serious with 50 years or is this some kind of joke? ATOC might not even exist then!
ERTMS and ETCS are going to be implemented over 50 years because that is how long it will be before some of the existing signalling centres need to be replaced. I expect this list that ATOC have put out is based on Network Rail's signalling road map for the replacement of all signalling control into the 12 new control centres (or what ever this years plan is).

ETCS requires not only the infrastructure to be modified but also the trains. If you recall the Cambrian route is a trial installation and in all the reports on it I have seen the big message is "don't modify old trains" as shoehorning the train based equipment into the Class 158s had been extremely difficult and a source of many problems. So one aspect of ATOCs list is the message that trains will need to be able to accommodate the train based equipment in some sort of timescale. In time it will be a factor in train cascades.

The fact that a technical standard for ECTS/ERTMS exists at issue XX.YY does not freeze the technology used to implement it. That will certainly change over the years but as long as the requirements are met it doesn't matter. I don't suppose the train based AWS equipment in use today is the same that was fitted to steam locos in 1954 but it still works to the same requirements.
 

jopsuk

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Please excuse my ignornace, but why it is going to take 50 years to implement this system accross the country?!

I just think planning so far in advance to implement a system that could have changed tenfold in that time is just ridiculous. Are ATOC serious with 50 years or is this some kind of joke? ATOC might not even exist then!
As said, it could technically be done much, much quicker. I'd reckon if they did a big push, you could possibly have the network done in 5-10 years.

But resignalling is a rolling program. Some signalling equipment is very new- crazy to replace that. Plus you'd have mass redundancy as you implement it, whereas a gradual roll out can be done with less pain.
 

The Planner

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I am waiting with interest to see how they implement it on a more complicated line than the Cambrian, even with lessons learnt from that farce it will be a completely different kettle of fish.
 

The Snap

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ERTMS and ETCS are going to be implemented over 50 years because that is how long it will be before some of the existing signalling centres need to be replaced. I expect this list that ATOC have put out is based on Network Rail's signalling road map for the replacement of all signalling control into the 12 new control centres (or what ever this years plan is).

ETCS requires not only the infrastructure to be modified but also the trains. If you recall the Cambrian route is a trial installation and in all the reports on it I have seen the big message is "don't modify old trains" as shoehorning the train based equipment into the Class 158s had been extremely difficult and a source of many problems. So one aspect of ATOCs list is the message that trains will need to be able to accommodate the train based equipment in some sort of timescale. In time it will be a factor in train cascades.

The fact that a technical standard for ECTS/ERTMS exists at issue XX.YY does not freeze the technology used to implement it. That will certainly change over the years but as long as the requirements are met it doesn't matter. I don't suppose the train based AWS equipment in use today is the same that was fitted to steam locos in 1954 but it still works to the same requirements.
As said, it could technically be done much, much quicker. I'd reckon if they did a big push, you could possibly have the network done in 5-10 years.

But resignalling is a rolling program. Some signalling equipment is very new- crazy to replace that. Plus you'd have mass redundancy as you implement it, whereas a gradual roll out can be done with less pain.
Thanks for the explanations chaps, they seem like reasonable reasons for the lengthy roll-out programme.
 
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