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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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radamfi

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The optimism on here might be misplaced.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42279408

UK citizens who move elsewhere in the EU before Brexit day will have the right to stay in that country.

However after the UK withdraws, the freedom of movement principles will not be the same for UK citizens living in the EU as EU citizens living in Britain.

As Jon Worth, a UK citizen living in Germany, said: "I can still go and take a day trip to (Poland), or go on holiday to (Italy) unrestricted, after Brexit day.

"But I could not move to live in Italy or Poland without restriction."

So for people like Mr Worth, the only way to keep this freedom of movement would be to apply for a passport in the European country they are currently residing in.
 
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AM9

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Interesting that Gove says people can use the next general election vote to influence the government if they don't like the conditions of brexit. Of course they can, they can even ask to revert to something that gives us the benefit of membership. It cuts both ways, - the power of democracy. :)
 

Domh245

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Interesting that Gove says people can use the next general election vote to influence the government if they don't like the conditions of brexit. Of course they can, they can even ask to revert to something that gives us the benefit of membership. It cuts both ways, - the power of democracy. :)

Given that the next G.E. is supposed to be in 2022, I'm not sure what point he's so made here. That brexit will be drawn out well past then (as it is, Mrs May's proposed 2 year transitional deal will expire in 2021) or that we'll be having another election sooner than we think
 

Howardh

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Given that the next G.E. is supposed to be in 2022, I'm not sure what point he's so made here. That brexit will be drawn out well past then (as it is, Mrs May's proposed 2 year transitional deal will expire in 2021) or that we'll be having another election sooner than we think
A lot depends how the hard-cases feel about May's Brexstay. They could collude to give Gove a run, either against May or against a remainer. But looking ahead, what would a new leader gain, sure the hard-case voters might be onside, but if 48% or remainers are happy with Brexstay, and just a touch over 4% of those who voted leave are happy, then May is in the majority.
But it would be a bit two-faced fro all the leavers who didn't want a second referendum because they would lo...it was undemocratic can't now turn round and say they want one because they didn't get what they though they were gonna get. If they wanted a hard Brexit they should have put it on the ballot paper.
 

AM9

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A lot depends how the hard-cases feel about May's Brexstay. They could collude to give Gove a run, either against May or against a remainer. But looking ahead, what would a new leader gain, sure the hard-case voters might be onside, but if 48% or remainers are happy with Brexstay, and just a touch over 4% of those who voted leave are happy, then May is in the majority.
But it would be a bit two-faced fro all the leavers who didn't want a second referendum because they would lo...it was undemocratic can't now turn round and say they want one because they didn't get what they though they were gonna get. If they wanted a hard Brexit they should have put it on the ballot paper.

Can't help think that all this schadenfreude is a great christmas gift to the remainers. I almost feel sorry for some of the leavers, especially those whose vote will end up costing them.
 

EM2

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Can't help think that all this schadenfreude is a great christmas gift to the remainers. I almost feel sorry for some of the leavers, especially those whose vote will end up costing them.
I'm not so sure. Yes, there's no 'no deal Brexit' but there's also now no chance of 'no Brexit'.
 

Howardh

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Can't help think that all this schadenfreude is a great christmas gift to the remainers. I almost feel sorry for some of the leavers, especially those whose vote will end up costing them.
I have a problem. As a remainer, if this Brexstay goes well - Brexit will be wanting to take the praise, and if it goes badly then we'll be blamed for it not being hard enough! But I think business will be able to calm down and start to plan a fairly seamless passage from the EU into Virtual EU. And in that Virtual EU we should be able to slide back in as and when.
 

AM9

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I have a problem. As a remainer, if this Brexstay goes well - Brexit will be wanting to take the praise, and if it goes badly then we'll be blamed for it not being hard enough! But I think business will be able to calm down and start to plan a fairly seamless passage from the EU into Virtual EU. And in that Virtual EU we should be able to slide back in as and when.

If it doesn't go well, I doubt the electorate at large will blame those who didn't think it was a good idea. If the incompetance of the leave team couldn't forsee and deal with the Ireland land border issue, there must be plenty of trade negotiation difficulties that their naïve optimism is also blinding them to. The referfendum vote was closer than 52:48 of those who voted in favour of getting into this mess. The demographics of over 18 months may already swing a new vote the other way. If there was a body of MPs that admitted that things were getting worse, and the older 'couldn't care' voters who thought that any real worsening wouldn't affect them were beginning to see the impact, even they might see that we were better off before. The incentive of giving us back equal control of EU laws rather than having to follow them might also persuade some. Even those leavers for whom immigration was the big problem, the continuing need and supply of them would push many except the most xenophobic to shift their allegiance.
 

317 forever

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Yes quite. It was a cynical ploy by the arrogant, out-of-touch political establishment to squash once and for all the anti EU sentiment felt by a great many people in this country. Oh, how it has backfired on them.

And as much people may loath Nigel Farage, he has certainly achieved what he set out to achieve, in a way most politicians could never hope to.

He even remarked smugly a few months after the referendum "You don't necessarily need Westminster representation to achieve your aspirations"
 

317 forever

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Don't assume all Brexiteers want to be out of the single market. One of the most prominent "leave" bloggers wants to keep the single market and free movement.

http://eureferendum.com/

Even if just 1 in 50 of Leave voters want to stay in the single market, if you assume all Remainers want to stay in the single market, that means a majority of voters want to stay in the single market.

Your point here is sufficient to demonstrate that there is a majority united behind a Soft Brexit. Leave voters prefer it to no Brexit, and Remain voters prefer it to Hard Brexit.
 

317 forever

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Indeed. While it could be argued the Lib Dems got policies through between 2010 and 2015 they did at least have over 50 seats and I genuinely believe if we had the Alternative Vote system that Lib Dems could have been the second choice for the majority of voters. I don't know about others but if I had to rank all the parties from most to least favourite then the DUP would be competing with the likes of UKIP for my least favourite.

Same here. Much as I dreaded a Leave outcome, at least the Conservatives are on balance cautious Eurosceptics and offered us a referendum. In contrast, UKIP wanted to take us out of the EU on hard Brexit terms without any referendum first.
 

317 forever

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So - if the Irish Border is staying open, that means we can't revert to WTO rules so it's no hard Brexit.

So now the EU can demand anything and everything and we will virtually have to accept it, sure there'll be bits and pieces where we can go our own way, but if the border's open then nothing can get into the EU that isn't regulated by them - so (for example) those US chickens covered in chlorine might well not be allowed into the UK in the first place to stop them getting into the EU.

So as a commentator said this morning, in the CU and SM in everything but name, and even worse - £50bn cost no say at the end of it.

Well done Brexit, five stars!!

EDIT I see that that nice Mr. Farage (and the whole of leave.eu) is a tad displeased. Good. You can't have a second referendum because you don't want one, you don't have an answer to the border problem anyway. Now go away and take your pension with you.

Given that Northern Ireland - including all border constituencies - voted Remain, it was never morally right for a hard border to be proposed never mind implemented.

With the fact that future trade laws and deals will be aligned with some single market and customs union rules where necessary for the Good Friday Agreement, it means we shall have to align ourselves with such rules but with no say on their creation. We will still have independence in other areas of legislation though.

Just a thought. Irish independence came about in 1922 after most of the area which became the Irish Republic voted Sinn Fein in the 1918 General Election. A handful of areas of what became Northern Ireland voted Sinn Fein but many such areas voted for other protestant or unionist parties. Suppose the government had let the whole of Ireland go independent with a majority of seats Sinn Fein. Then we would not have had the Irish question following the Brexit referendum, and potentially a hard Brexit.
 

Domh245

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Looks like David Davis' remarks have been noted by Brussels. Just as it all appeared to be going so well not-quite-as-badly-as-they-had-been previously

Guy Verhofstadt said:
Remarks by David Davis that Phase one deal last week not binding were unhelpful & undermines trust. EP text will now reflect this & insist agreement translated into legal text ASAP #Brexit
 

najaB

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Government loses key Brexit bill vote after Tory rebellion
The government has been narrowly defeated in a key vote on its Brexit bill after a rebellion by Tory MPs.

In a blow to Prime Minister Theresa May, MPs voted to give Parliament a legal guarantee of a vote on the final Brexit deal struck with Brussels.

The government had argued this would jeopardise its chances of delivering a smooth Brexit.

The amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill tabled by ex-Attorney General Dominic Grieve was backed by 309 to 305.
Strong and stable, strong and stable.
 

Domh245

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This is where it gets really interesting. The hardline leavers are probably already foaming at the mouth. Tomorrow's Telegraph should make entertaining reading.

No idea why they should be - I thought they were all about bringing back parliamentary sovereignty?
 

Senex

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No idea why they should be - I thought they were all about bringing back parliamentary sovereignty?
Not if it’s a choice between parliamentary sovereignty and getting the hard Brexit they want!
 

Howardh

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Well well, our soveriegn Parliament has just voted Theresa May down, by four votes. Meaning a hard Brexit is now further away than ever, and even (according the the Sky news commentator) those Labour MP's supporting Brexit are murmouring out loud "EFTA", "EEA", "Norway model" and "Swiss Model".

Arguably this has been the result of the "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal" policy May shouted at us before the recent general election, scaring the voters witless (after all, were all the 17m are in favour of a cliff-edge hard-as-nails Brexit??) and instead of having a whopping majority to do what she liked, it's a very frayed tightrope.
 

Tetchytyke

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Given that Northern Ireland - including all border constituencies - voted Remain, it was never morally right for a hard border to be proposed never mind implemented.

It's the Unionists who are really caught between a rock and a hard place here. They don't want a hard border because they know most people in Northern Ireland just want a quiet life, and these days would rather join the South than have a difficult life. But they don't want a soft border because that's moving towards what the Republicans want.
 

Dave1987

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The Tories have most definitely confirmed they are the nasty party. Anna Soubry has received messages that she should be hanged for voting against the Government. Other pro Brexit MPs have demanded those that voted against the Government are all deselected and dismissed from the Tory party. I see those rebels as the most principled people in Parliament! Not a whisper of condemnation of their treatment from the PM. Ow the Tories are really showing their true nasty colours at the moment.

Hurray for Democracy! Absolutely loved seeing the cabinet squirming on TV after the defeat.
 

trash80

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Death threats eh? Nothing non-Tory remainers haven't received since the referendum (myself included). The problem with Brexit is that it became the national religion over night and anyone who veers from orthodoxy is seen as a non-conformist (at best) and a heretic who needs to be burned (at worst).
 

Dave1987

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Death threats eh? Nothing non-Tory remainers haven't received since the referendum (myself included). The problem with Brexit is that it became the national religion over night and anyone who veers from orthodoxy is seen as a non-conformist (at best) and a heretic who needs to be burned (at worst).

Brexit has and remains to be the most divisive thing that has ever happened to this country. It has definitely brought out the worst in people not helped at all by the likes of the Daily Fail inciting hatred towards all who oppose Brexit. May has finally admitted it seems that the country is bitterly divided as she has stopped harping on about the country “coming together”. Some of us will never support Brexit and will always long for us to rejoin which we undoubtedly will in the future once the consequences really start to take their toll on people’s lives.
 

fowler9

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Brexit has and remains to be the most divisive thing that has ever happened to this country. It has definitely brought out the worst in people not helped at all by the likes of the Daily Fail inciting hatred towards all who oppose Brexit. May has finally admitted it seems that the country is bitterly divided as she has stopped harping on about the country “coming together”. Some of us will never support Brexit and will always long for us to rejoin which we undoubtedly will in the future once the consequences really start to take their toll on people’s lives.
It has brought out a weird kind of exceptionalism in some people who seem to think they are better than others because of where they were born. It completely baffles me.
 

Tim R-T-C

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The fact that people are sending death threats, because of a vote that was merely to ensure that parliament got a vote on Brexit, just makes no sense. It wasn't stopping, or delaying Brexit, just allowing Parliament to vote on any agreements made.

Is this going to be the future the Brexiters want, MPs being threatened with hanging every time they vote against the Daily Mail's opinions page?
 

nlogax

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I feel a lot of this lies at Paul Dacre's door. Johnathan Harmsworth can't or won't keep a tight rein over him, not while he's making cash hand over fist from Mail's daily output of bile. A huge swathe of the UK gulps this stuff down without a second thought. Seems to me that the Mail wants some sort of middle class anarchy while directing the operation from way above everyone's heads.
 

Dave1987

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Well if it wasn't so serious this whole Brexit pantomime would be comical. Brexiteers say UK does not need to pay a divorce bill, with our glorious foreign secretary saying the EU can "go whistle". Brexit supporting MPs urge May not to give into the EU. May has to give in to the EU at the eleventh hour to the divorce bill and concede that the UK will stay inline with the EU regs to prevent a hard border with Northern Island. Then there is a load of mutual back slapping by the Government saying they have "proven critics wrong" blah blah blah. And now today Davis says he wants a Canadian type deal but with financial services included. EU negotiators say financial services including passporting cannot be included in any trade deal and that you must be part of the single market to get the perks of the single market.

Apparently May conceded on the divorce bill etc because some businesses said they could not wait any longer for progress and would start moving jobs out of the UK. Davis seems to believe he can get the perks of the single market without being in the single market. No deal has become an even more serious possibility today. Tory Brexit MPs would never let the UK stay in the single market and would rather harm the UK economy than concede anything to the EU. What a bloody pantomime!
 

Tim R-T-C

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I think the biggest mistake was not having a second referendum - not to vote again on the question, but to allow people to have a say on what "Brexit" should actually mean.

After the initial vote, they should have spent a year researching and debating four possible alternatives, from very soft to very hard, then allowed the public a chance to vote on which of the four they believed was best for Britain.

As it is, people voted to leave, but no-one asked them what exactly they were leaving, when and why. Only the Tory elites got to decide what exactly Brexit meant and even they can't agree, which has led to the absurd situation we are in where we have different people negotiating different agreements, with no idea of what will actually result.
 

AM9

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Well if it wasn't so serious this whole Brexit pantomime would be comical. Brexiteers say UK does not need to pay a divorce bill, with our glorious foreign secretary saying the EU can "go whistle". Brexit supporting MPs urge May not to give into the EU. May has to give in to the EU at the eleventh hour to the divorce bill and concede that the UK will stay inline with the EU regs to prevent a hard border with Northern Island. Then there is a load of mutual back slapping by the Government saying they have "proven critics wrong" blah blah blah. And now today Davis says he wants a Canadian type deal but with financial services included. EU negotiators say financial services including passporting cannot be included in any trade deal and that you must be part of the single market to get the perks of the single market.

Apparently May conceded on the divorce bill etc because some businesses said they could not wait any longer for progress and would start moving jobs out of the UK. Davis seems to believe he can get the perks of the single market without being in the single market. No deal has become an even more serious possibility today. Tory Brexit MPs would never let the UK stay in the single market and would rather harm the UK economy than concede anything to the EU. What a bloody pantomime!

I'm still not convinced that there will be a hard break from the EU. If the extremists politicians tried it the Conservatives government would probably implode, denying them any power for decades (or as long as it took to restore a viable economy and peace in NI). The EU would undoubtedly accept a retraction of the government's myopic behaviour even when the economy started nosediving. Those who voted for leaving would be feeling far too much pain to stand in the way (apart from the wealthy rightwingers who would be using their cash to speculate on our difficulties, and the racists/xenophobes who would see it as a missed opportunity to realise their obscene wishes).
With the EU telling the government (yet again) that they will not allow any cherry picking of single market privileges by those outside of it, round one of the great British jobs exodus begins after Christmas. Large chunks of the financial world will dust off their contingency plans and up sticks and move into financially secure cities within the EU, and their high-income tax paying employees will go with them. That will leave a big hole in HMRC's tax take. Never mind, at least 'democratic rights will have been served the slightly reduced number of seats on 8-car class700s will then be adequate for the number of passengers.
 
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