EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[trash80]

I've given up underestimating the stupidity of the mob

 

[najaB]

I've given up underestimating the stupidity of the mob

Yeah, many are guilty of misunderestimating people.

 

[pemma]

Nigel Farage has had his MEP's salary docked by £35,500 after claims he misspent EU funds, the BBC understands.

The ex-UKIP leader was investigated by the European Parliament over claims his office assistant had not been working on EU matters.

Half of his salary has been withheld to recoup the money the Parliament says it is owed.

The move was condemned by a spokesman for the European Parliament group which Mr Farage heads.

"There is a vindictive campaign by the European Parliament of selective persecution of Eurosceptic MEPs, parties and groups," said the spokesman for the European Freedom and Direct Democracy group.

"This allegation is all part of their politically motivated assault."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42669293

 

[yorksrob]

It's strange that most of the things that you mention that may change when the UK leaves the EU are to do with border and travel restrictions yet you don't seem concerned with rising prices, unemployment, shortage of trained workers for key jobs etc., which will affect you far more than holidays and cheap alcohol.

A lot of these issues at least partially reflect underlying economic issues, such as an over-reliance on imports, expatriation of profits/multinationals denominating products made in the UK in foreign currencies, unwillingness of business to invest in training etc.

Some of these issues are facilitated/exacerbated by the common market and free trading arrangements in general.

One would hope that to a limited extent, business might be forced to undertake some training and some alternative products fully sourced in the UK might increase in popularity, compared to those of companies denominated in other currencies.

 

[najaB]

One would hope that to a limited extent, business might be forced to undertake some training and some alternative products fully sourced in the UK might increase in popularity, compared to those of companies denominated in other currencies.

So you're happy with an increased cost of living as a consequence of Brexit?

 

[yorksrob]

So you're happy with an increased cost of living as a consequence of Brexit?

Not really. But neither am I happy with an increased cost of living due to products such as Marmite (for example) being manufactured by companies who don't operate primarily in sterling.

 

[317 forever]

He may be deluded on that score. If there was an opportunity to wipe that Stonehenge-toothed smile from his face then I'd take it for that reason alone.

However, I do also have a sneaking suspicion is the UK has had it up to -here- with referendums and associated fallout. I wonder how much that would skew any vote? Are Leavers and Remainers equally sick of this stuff?

It sounds nice and democratic to give the public a new referendum when the final terms of Brexit are known. Leaving aside that I would be encouraged if it leads to a Remain vote, I have 2 concerns. The first as you say is that the public may well be sick of all these votes. Secondly, there are plenty of people who will not see the difference between this and the 2016 referendum.

 

[AM9]

It sounds nice and democratic to give the public a new referendum when the final terms of Brexit are known. Leaving aside that I would be encouraged if it leads to a Remain vote, I have 2 concerns. The first as you say is that the public may well be sick of all these votes. Secondly, there are plenty of people who will not see the difference between this and the 2016 referendum.

There are parts of the electorate that vote the same way whatever the situation, those who vote for reasons that have nothing to do with the election/referendum, those who try and game the system and thos of course who don't vote. There's no reason why those voters will behave any different in a future referendum, but the fact is the demographic will have changed in as much as about 250,000 voters over 50 are no longer able to vote, similarly, a number of young people can vote for the first time. Aside from any change in voters views over the past 2 years, the demographic change adds young voters who are more likely to vote remain to the ratio 3:1 and removes leaver voters in the ratio 6:4 so the already slim majority is being eaten away before the worsening economic situation changes any minds.
It's also worth remembering that about 700,000 additional 18-24s registered to vote in the 2017 general election following the referendum result, so it can be presumed that they would vote in the same way as the already registered voters within that age group.

 

[bramling]

So you're happy with an increased cost of living as a consequence of Brexit?

I suspect that for a lot of people the answer is no, but also that they are not happy with continued freedom of movement (i.e. mass uncontrollable immigration) as a consequence of continued EU membership. So it comes down to the lesser of two evils - many may see a few extra pounds on the price of a new tv as a price worth paying.

 

[bramling]

There are parts of the electorate that vote the same way whatever the situation, those who vote for reasons that have nothing to do with the election/referendum, those who try and game the system and thos of course who don't vote. There's no reason why those voters will behave any different in a future referendum, but the fact is the demographic will have changed in as much as about 250,000 voters over 50 are no longer able to vote, similarly, a number of young people can vote for the first time. Aside from any change in voters views over the past 2 years, the demographic change adds young voters who are more likely to vote remain to the ratio 3:1 and removes leaver voters in the ratio 6:4 so the already slim majority is being eaten away before the worsening economic situation changes any minds.
It's also worth remembering that about 700,000 additional 18-24s registered to vote in the 2017 general election following the referendum result, so it can be presumed that they would vote in the same way as the already registered voters within that age group.

This all sounds like an extremely slippery slope to me. Worryingly close to gerrymandering in fact.

 

[AlterEgo]

There are parts of the electorate that vote the same way whatever the situation, those who vote for reasons that have nothing to do with the election/referendum, those who try and game the system and thos of course who don't vote. There's no reason why those voters will behave any different in a future referendum, but the fact is the demographic will have changed in as much as about 250,000 voters over 50 are no longer able to vote, similarly, a number of young people can vote for the first time. Aside from any change in voters views over the past 2 years, the demographic change adds young voters who are more likely to vote remain to the ratio 3:1 and removes leaver voters in the ratio 6:4 so the already slim majority is being eaten away before the worsening economic situation changes any minds.
It's also worth remembering that about 700,000 additional 18-24s registered to vote in the 2017 general election following the referendum result, so it can be presumed that they would vote in the same way as the already registered voters within that age group.

This supposes, in my view incorrectly, that in general the population don't become more right wing as they age.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I don't think the result would change either.

The rhetoric since the vote has led to most people's positions becoming even more entrenched so few people will change there mind - but a few will:
* Presumably the remain campaign a 2nd time would be better (it could hardly be worse!), trying to highlight positives of staying instead of focussing solely on negatives of leaving, and talking about some areas other than just the economic impact.
* Also there'd be some yiung voters who were ineligible to vote last time, who're statistically more likely to be remainers than those who voted last time but are sadly no longer with us.
*Howeve I think these two factors will be balanced out by some remainers feeling that revisiting it so soon is failing to respect the first vote and therefore voting leave on principle (I have a friend who voted remain and wishes the country had too, but who'd vote leave in a rerun for this reason) and some others being sick to the back teeth of it and staying at home.

I voted remain but would not want another in/out referendum now. I would have liked a a "what type of 'leave' would you like" referendum, and I wouldn't object to a "this is the type of 'leave' we've managed to negotiate it, do you want this or would you rather remain" one

Same here, I voted remain, but I am a Brexiteer at heart. If I had another chance to vote, I would vote leave. Why? Because I don't think Britain should ever have joined the EU, because it fundamentally misunderstood the basis of the Project to begin with, and time and time again throughout history our political leaders have mishandled our relationship with Europe. We have gone from Prime Minister blindingly in love with Europe-causes mistrust and disdain with the public, to Prime Minsiter who is emphatically against Europe but not quite enough to pull us out. Harold Macmillian wanted us to join the EC in the '60s because he thought it would make a nice replacement to the British Empire-not understanding that it was the European Project that was meant to be the Empire-of sorts. Major and Blair were wedded to the idea of the European Project. Cameron and Thatcher were not. Sir Ivan Rogers made an interesting lecture recently, which you can read online, in which he described the road to Brexit as an extension of the hysteria of the signing of the Lisbon Treaty. He said that, David Cameron did not want us to leave the EU-purely for economic reasons, but otherwise was so fed up and antagonistic about it, that his negotiations failed because he essentially wanted to carve a deal with the EU that prima facie it would seem Britain wasn't in the EU at all-only being in so for the security of the City. Naturally, this aroused the suspicions of the Franco-German alliance who brought down his plans for such an exceptional membership for Britain. If it takes Britain, to be unanimously comfortable to be in the EU after decades and for the decades ahead, that we would need to be so far detached from it, then clearly bar the economical reasons, Brexit makes perfect sense.

I think the idea that it is the bashing of the evil Daily Mail readers that voted for Brexit, and everyone else who is sensible, kind and generally not racist voted to remain is dangerously misguided.

 

[pemma]

According to the UKIP leader's girlfriend (also a UKIP member)

Ms Markle would taint the Royal Family, that she had a "tiny brain" and that black people were ugly.

...

UKIP has confirmed Ms Marney has been suspended but some members have called for her permanent removal from the party.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42679187

 

[najaB]

I suspect that for a lot of people the answer is no, but also that they are not happy with continued freedom of movement (i.e. mass uncontrollable immigration)...

In logic, if you start an argument with a falsehood then the entire argument is false. Freedom of movement means that people move where there are available jobs - the simple way to control immigration is to get UK nationals off benefits and into jobs.

 

[AlterEgo]

In logic, if you start an argument with a falsehood then the entire argument is false. Freedom of movement means that people move where there are available jobs - the simple way to control immigration is to get UK nationals off benefits and into jobs.

British people have been indoctrinated for a couple of generations now that picking potatoes in the Fens is no life for them. Everyone thinks they’re above that.

 

[najaB]

British people have been indoctrinated for a couple of generations now that picking potatoes in the Fens is no life for them. Everyone thinks they’re above that.

Well, someone is going to have to pick them post-Brexit!

 

[AM9]

This all sounds like an extremely slippery slope to me. Worryingly close to gerrymandering in fact.

These are facts based on the results of the referendum:
most younger voters prefer a future within the EU
most older voters prefer the UK to not be a member of the EU
These are facts of voting eligibility under UK law that has been in effect since in 1970:
people can vote from the age of 18 and until they die with the exceptions of certain mental health conditions and criminal convictions
That which was stated in my post #8228 was extrapolated from the laterst year's population and death figures (2016)

So the trend is that without of any change in the voting intentions of those voted in the 2016 referendum, the slim majority that there was for leaving is gradually being reduced by natural demographic causes. The only counter argument to that is that when existing reamain voters reach a certain age (50, maybe 60?) they flip to being confirmed leave voters. Counting any change in the view of all voters following the exit process up to the point of a new vote, cannot be regarded as a natural demographic cause.
Gerrymandering is a deliberate act to fix the results of a vote. Perhaps you could explain how any of the above is even loosely connected with gerrymandering.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

These are facts based on the results of the referendum:
most younger voters prefer a future within the EU
most older voters prefer the UK to not be a member of the EU
These are facts of voting eligibility under UK law that has been in effect since in 1970:
people can vote from the age of 18 and until they die with the exceptions of certain mental health conditions and criminal convictions
That which was stated in my post #8228 was extrapolated from the laterst year's population and death figures (2016)

So the trend is that without of any change in the voting intentions of those voted in the 2016 referendum, the slim majority that there was for leaving is gradually being reduced by natural demographic causes. The only counter argument to that is that when existing reamain voters reach a certain age (50, maybe 60?) they flip to being confirmed leave voters. Counting any change in the view of all voters following the exit process up to the point of a new vote, cannot be regarded as a natural demographic cause.
Gerrymandering is a deliberate act to fix the results of a vote. Perhaps you could explain how any of the above is even loosely connected with gerrymandering.

What about the generation after the millenials? Who either never lived in the EU or lived in it at a time during their childhood in which they were too young to either care or understand.

By the time they reach their 20s, millenials wll be middle aged and would have spent their entire (or at least a larfe part) of their adult lives outside of the EU. I don't think the call to remain in the EU will remain in perpetuity. I think it will die out in a decade or so.

 

[trash80]

If we leave we'll be back in by 2030, with the Euro.

I'll post next week's lotto numbers later.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

If we leave we'll be back in by 2030, with the Euro.

I'll post next week's lotto numbers later.

Why do you think that?

I'm 22, most of the young people I've spoken to about Brexit, apart from the ones from the academic Universities who are wedded to the project itself, all voted remain but just want it to go well rather than not at all. I think if Brexit did go reasonably-lukewarm-okay then I think people would move on from EU membership to the next big issue that effects peoples lives in the 20s. World War Three perhaps?

 

[Domh245]

I'm 22, most of the young people I've spoken to about Brexit, apart from the ones from the academic Universities who are wedded to the project itself, all voted remain but just want it to go well rather than not at all. I think if Brexit did go reasonably-lukewarm-okay then I think people would move on from EU membership to the next big issue that effects peoples lives in the 20s. World War Three perhaps?

I think that's an important point you've picked up on there. Despite what politicians of all persuasions make it sound like, I don't think that vast swathes of the population are actually all that bothered about the minutiae of the EU, how it operates, the complexities of trade agreements, etc. They want local services, healthcare, pensions, etc - they aren't particularly bothered whether or not that is done inside or outside the EU. I'm still not convinced that the a large number of Brexit voters voted that way for any other reason that it being anti-status quo, instead of anger over a lack of democratic accountability or whatever else pro-brexit campaigners are saying. Does anyone really think that the (eg) middle aged mothers of this country considered the structure of the EU and decided that they disliked the way in which the commission isn't voted for by the electorate and decided to vote leave accordingly? Or did they just think "whatever it is we are doing now isn't working for me personally, so I'll vote against it"

As you say, if Brexit goes reasonably well (ie no massive recession,no job losses, no industry grinding to a halt on Brexit Day, etc) then I don't think that there will be too many people clamouring to rejoin. Obviously, the odds of this government making a reasonable success of Brexit is another matter!

 

[najaB]

As you say, if Brexit goes reasonably well (ie no massive recession,no job losses, no industry grinding to a halt on Brexit Day, etc) then I don't think that there will be too many people clamouring to rejoin.

Agreed, though I think the real impact (if any) won't be felt for 12 to 18 months out.

 

[fowler9]

Why do you think that?

I'm 22, most of the young people I've spoken to about Brexit, apart from the ones from the academic Universities who are wedded to the project itself, all voted remain but just want it to go well rather than not at all. I think if Brexit did go reasonably-lukewarm-okay then I think people would move on from EU membership to the next big issue that effects peoples lives in the 20s. World War Three perhaps?

What about the people who went to the unacademic Universities (What is an Academic University?). You think if it went well people wouldn't mind? Of course they wouldn't mind if it went well. Its the fact that a lot of people really don't think it is going to go well that is the problem. It isn't like the quid I just bet on the Liverpool v Man City game.

 

[trash80]

Why do you think that?

Well my comment was partially tongue-in-cheek but only partially. To be honest i voted remain though my favoured status would be for us to have a Norwegian or Swiss relationship with the EU and to be in EFTA (i have nothing against the EU but i don't see the point of us being in it unless we take it seriously). Unfortunately i had little faith in politicians being able to achieve that so elected for the status quo.

Events since the referendum have done nothing to restore my faith in the ability of our political class, far from it. Thus i fear (and half expect) our leaving the EU to be cataclysmic to this country and we'll be forced to beg to rejoin.

 

[furnessvale]

It's also worth remembering that about 700,000 additional 18-24s registered to vote in the 2017 general election following the referendum result, so it can be presumed that they would vote in the same way as the already registered voters within that age group.

An approximate equal number of older voters have also died off, so remain is home and dry!

What this logic misses is the fact that an approximate equal number of voters have moved upwards through the age groups. There is every likelihood that life experience has modified the views held by those voters, just as it modified the views of those who went before them.

 

[fowler9]

An approximate equal number of older voters have also died off, so remain is home and dry!

What this logic misses is the fact that an approximate equal number of voters have moved upwards through the age groups. There is every likelihood that life experience has modified the views held by those voters, just as it modified the views of those who went before them.

It doesn't work like that though. House prices are currently way above and beyond the means of many and have been for decades. There isn't suddenly a number of people getting gradually older who will suddenly change their mind to leave because they are already pretty much sorted out.

 

[furnessvale]

It doesn't work like that though. House prices are currently way above and beyond the means of many and have been for decades. There isn't suddenly a number of people getting gradually older who will suddenly change their mind to leave because they are already pretty much sorted out.

I thought we were talking about membership of the EU. I can't quite see what house prices have got to do with it, unless you are suggesting that Brexit will result in such an economic boom as to further inflate house prices.

 

[trash80]

I think he means the idea is that people get older and settled with their home, car blah blah are more likely to become conservative and hence anti-EU. I think its a bit of a myth to be honest.

 

[fowler9]

I think he means the idea is that people get older and settled with their home, car blah blah are more likely to become conservative and hence anti-EU. I think its a bit of a myth to be honest.

Exactly. I thought it was pretty obvious. Hey ho.

 

[furnessvale]

Exactly. I thought it was pretty obvious. Hey ho.

Which did you think, the idea that people become more conservative, or the idea that this is a myth?