To install physical checkpoints along the border would instantly undermine a hard-won peace, and the psychological impact alone would be catastrophic. A return of those barricaded towers and armed checkpoints will stir up emotional memories for many Northern Irish people who witnessed years of violence in border towns such as Newry, Omagh and Derry, and there is a very real fear that they may lead to a resurgence of dissident activity.
Let’s not be naive – terrorism still exists across the province, and the paramilitaries are just waiting for an excuse to relaunch their bitter campaigns. Just last month, Theresa May raised the threat level from Northern Ireland to Great Britain from
moderate to severe, and in the past few weeks there have been police raids on a number of
secret arms stores. Perhaps this is why the latest polls show that Northern Irish voters will
vote remain on 23 June. The risks are simply too high, and the province has come too far to allow this progress to be undone by a few checked boxes on a ballot paper.
In the absence of a cohesive plan, Sinn Fein has already begun proposing a new referendum for the
unification of Ireland – a move that has the potential to undo all the hard work of the peace process, regardless of the result.
For residents of Northern Ireland, the possibility of a return to conflict overshadows every other possible benefit or drawback of a Brexit. This vote could change everything, and the Northern Irish people will ultimately have very little say in the result.
With just over a million people eligible to vote, Northern Irish votes are unlikely to make much of a difference to the overall result. On Thursday, the future of Northern Ireland will essentially be decided by people who don’t live there. Great Britain may be able to weather a Brexit, but Northern Ireland simply cannot.
