EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[bnm]

The institutions and the democracy we have are fine. Its just the people who want to run them that are the problem.

Sortition is the answer.

 

[furnessvale]

The return doesn't have to be purely financial. Stop deliberately missing the point.

Strange that the "financial consequences" of brexit seem to form the main plank of remain opposition.

 

[furnessvale]

What i find depressing is the poor way the UK is run that it does require the EU to supervise it.

AS long as people are as happy remaining in the EU as it lurches to the right as it will inevitably do.

 

[AlterEgo]

The institutions and the democracy we have are fine. Its just the people who want to run them that are the problem.

Sortition is the answer.

Finally someone gets it!

 

[Bromley boy]

The institutions and the democracy we have are fine. Its just the people who want to run them that are the problem.

Sortition is the answer.

Fully agreed with the first two sentences! I also agree with some of your earlier comments about MPs treating the job as part time etc.

How would sortition work in practice, though?

 

[bnm]

How would sortition work in practice, though?

Well, the first hurdle is overthrowing the politicians. They won't go quietly. And they certainly won't legislate for sortition. That's turkeys voting for Christmas.

How will it work in practice? That's too big a question to answer in a few paragraphs. Try the book Against Elections. The Case For Democracy by David Van Reybrouck. I read it last year and it opened my eyes to the possibilities and opportunities sortition could bring. A flavour of it can be had from The Guardian's Long Read column.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/why-elections-are-bad-for-democracy

And Google is there to help you with the case for and against, if reading The Guardian is unpalatable.

 

[NSEFAN]

Well, the first hurdle is overthrowing the politicians. They won't go quietly. And they certainly won't legislate for sortition. That's turkeys voting for Christmas.

I guess we could have rioting and/or civil war, as this is ultimately how various rights were won and fundamental political change has been effected over time.

 

[bnm]

Gavin Esler hitting the nail on the head. Project fantasy indeed:

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/gavin-esler-changed-my-mind-on-brexit-1-5644402

In 2016 as I travelled around our country I was appalled by the worst British political campaign I had ever witnessed. Remain was rightly ridiculed for inept scaremongering. Voters lacked positive reasons to understand why a trading bloc of two dozen rich nations is a good idea. Instead we got ‘Project Fear’.

The Leave campaign was more effective, but shameless, offering a delusional ‘Project Fantasy’ – an easy Brexit, a future British Wonderland of advantageous trade treaties with grateful foreigners, controlled immigration and no serious economic dislocation.

The Leave disinformation campaign included the nonsensical idea that Turkey was about to join the EU, as if 75 million Turks, plus Iraqi and Syrian refugees, were moving in next door. Despite the lies, I accepted the result and hoped that British common sense might make Project Fantasy somehow work. It hasn’t. That’s because it can’t. Leave’s delusional pain-free Brexit is coming apart not because people oppose it but because it is simply impossible.

Why, given the background of leading Brexiteers, could it be anything else? Nigel Farage has served almost 20 years in the European Parliament – yet he has never implemented any significant policy, anywhere, ever. Boris Johnson is what the Americans call ‘all sizzle and no steak’. His Fantasy Projects are endless. Literally. He has repeatedly backed taxpayer-funded bridges to nowhere, a doomed Garden Bridge, imaginary bridges to France and Ireland, and a mudflats London airport somewhere in the ocean.

Johnson’s most notorious Project Fantasy is the post-Brexit extra £350 million a week bonus to the NHS. His colleagues Liam Fox and David Davis promised “easy” trade deals, but only Wakanda and Narnia appear ready to sign up. And then there is Jacob Rees-Mogg, who the German newspaper Die Zeit dismisses as ein lebendes Fossil, “a living fossil”. German humour is directed towards a United Kingdom once seen as a vital European partner, now the butt of jokes and seen as irrelevant.

Worse: here’s how the shameless Brexit Bunch plan to survive the mess they have created – by going overseas. John Redwood has recommended investors consider opportunities abroad. The Living Fossil Rees-Mogg is part of a financial operation expanding in EU-affirming Ireland. Lord Lawson, when not offering his expert opinions on climate change, premenstrual tension, or whatever else he claims to know about, is seeking French residency. Nigel Farage has been looking for German passports for his family. And Lord Ashcroft recommends that investors consider opportunities in Malta. How many of the 17 million Brexit voters have the same opportunities?

The Project Fantasy clichés have become simply inane. ‘Brexit means Brexit’ was never a policy. Now it’s merely a gag-line for topical comedians. ‘No deal is better than a bad deal’, is nonsensical. No deal is such a very bad deal that it is now useless even as a negotiating position. A more accurate slogan would be that ‘No Brexit is better than a bad Brexit’.

The more slow-witted Brexiteers do not even notice they are drowning in their own verbal human waste. The Conservative MEP David Campbell Bannerman suggested that any Briton strongly supporting the EU was committing treason and linked ardent Remainers to jihadi terrorists. The Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns suggested that we must have a post Brexit “vision”. It’s a pity she didn’t think of this before we voted blindly for a visionless future in 2016.

Jenkyns also urged Brexiteers to “keep the faith”. What with her faith and her visions, clearly Brexit – always an incoherent policy – has now become an incoherent religion. As the former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt put it, a person who has ‘visions’ should go and see a doctor.

And then there’s the cheating. The Electoral Commission is clear. Vote Leave broke electoral law. Not an allegation. A fact. And yet in what once claimed to be the party of law and order a former Conservative government minister, Priti Patel, tried to organise a whip-round to help pay the legal fees of one of the lawbreakers. The Patel charity applies only to pro-Brexit lawbreakers, not Ordinary Decent Criminals.

In all this Theresa May is the scapegoat-in-waiting. Farage speaks of Brexit being “betrayed”, with May the betrayer-in-chief. Remarkably, Farage and others on the far right who speak of Brexit ‘betrayal’ sound like those on the far left who claim that communism is a brilliant idea, if only it had ever been tried properly and not ‘betrayed’ by the people who ever tried it.

All this marks an existential crisis for journalism too.

What is the purpose of truth and facts and news in a world of disinformation, where lying at the top has become normalised? The slippery concept of ‘balance’ needs to be rethought. Serious politicians and real experts cannot be ‘balanced’ by obscure talking heads whose main qualification is a university degree in blarney.

Take, for instance, the ubiquitous antipodean, an Australian called Chloe Westley. She was formerly with Vote Leave and is now a rising star in the so-called TaxPayers’ Alliance. Spokesmen and women from obscure pressure groups maybe occasionally worthwhile guests on television and radio, but Westley is now a regular fixture.

The clear message is that what she has to say must somehow be important and authoritative. But is it? Curiously for someone who knows everything there is to know about the golden post-Brexit future for 65 million of us, Westley claims not to know key details about who actually funds her salary.

When challenged on Radio 4 by the impressive Conservative MP Dr Sarah Wollaston about corporate and big business donations, the otherwise omniscient Westley was unable to confirm if, say, her opposition to a sugar tax is encouraged by funding from the sugar lobby or other big financial interests.

Private organisations are entitled to keep their funding secret. But when the TPA spokeswoman repeatedly comes into your home and mine on the public airwaves, their source of funding is a vital public interest matter. Organisations in our Disinformation Age need to come clean, or not be invited to come on television and radio programmes except very occasionally. ‘Come Clean Or Don’t Come On’ is a good principle for other supposedly ‘independent’ think tanks too, including the pro-Brexit Institute of Economic Affairs.

The IEA was recently exposed in a sting operation offering access for wealthy US potential donors to right-wing British politicians. Every dog should have a chance to howl. But since those who howl repeatedly on television are rewarded by broadcasters with a veneer of credibility, they need to come clean to deserve it.

So what can we do to minimise the damage?

First, continue to expose the Brexit fantasies, accurately and fairly assessing whether any of them are ever likely to work. Second, compare the promises of the Brexit Bunch with what they actually do with their own lives and finances. Third, we need to follow the money – the Leave campaign money, the money behind the curiously-funded Leave-supporting “think tanks”, and other organisations. And fourth, we need to keep an eye on those speculators for whom a chaotic few months until the Brexcrement hits the fan could prove remarkably profitable.

One final thought.

Hold journalists to account, sure. But most journalists – even ones you dislike – seek to debunk disinformation and expose lies. Instead of bashing decent journalists for the contortions demanded by the impossible ‘balancing’ act some are supposed to perform, let us encourage a re-think.

In the post-Trump post-Brexit world, how can we re-build trust unless we can point out lies when they occur? Broadcasters, especially, need to reflect a wide range of opinions. But confronting expert opinion and elected representatives on television with articulate know-nothing non-experts of dubious provenance financed by who-knows-what, is not ‘balance’. It is a disservice to our people, our country, and to facts, accuracy and fairness.

As for me, I have never joined any political party or any political campaign. But this is different. If – when – Project Fantasy finally falls apart, the sour atmosphere of the Brexit mess threatens to makes this great country of ours an even more divided and poorer place.

If that happens, at least I can look my children in the eye and say, “you know that pile of Brexcrement you’re saddled with? Some of us tried to clean it up."

Getting rid of David Cameron was my hope when voting Leave, but there was also a part of me that bought the arguments sold by brexiteers of a bright positive future. I now know I was sold a pup, and it saddens me that a bunch of con-artists won the day.

 

[fowler9]

Gavin Esler hitting the nail on the head. Project fantasy indeed:

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/gavin-esler-changed-my-mind-on-brexit-1-5644402



Getting rid of David Cameron was my hope when voting Leave, but there was also a part of me that bought the arguments sold by brexiteers of a bright positive future. I now know I was sold a pup, and it saddens me that a bunch of con-artists won the day.

You voted leave to get rid of Cameron? Jesus. I guess you thought once that happened some kind of more socially aware society would pop in to existence. Cheers mate.

 

[bnm]

You voted leave to get rid of Cameron? Jesus. I guess you thought once that happened some kind of more socially aware society would pop in to existence. Cheers mate.

You're welcome.

You did read the rest where I was sold on the brexit arguments at the time. Like the result it was a close run decision for me. I had, and have, no particular loyalty to either side, I went with what I thought was best at the time. I now realise the brexit arguments were fantasy. I now realise the brexiteers hadn't, and still haven't, got a clue how to leave the EU without causing long term pain to the country.

I thought long and hard, look at all the available evidence, listened to both sides, tried my best to wade through the hyperbole from both sides. Ultimately I deeply resented the fact David Cameron had used the electorate to fight a proxy war on behalf of the tories. He was too scared to lead his party with a decisive manifesto pledge of "in". He forgot that the UK is a representative democracy, not a plebiscite one.

With such a even split on what I thought was best for the country at the time, I had to find a USP to decide either way. So my vote was very narrowly in favour of brexit at the time of the ballot, but very strongly a message to David Cameron.

 

[peri]

Possibly off-topic but if Cameron had not called a referendum would he have survived? I believe leaders of coalitions usually get it in the neck from their own party.

 

[najaB]

Possibly off-topic but if Cameron had not called a referendum would he have survived?

If he hadn't put it in the manifesto then I think he would still be PM. Once it was in the manifesto he had to follow through.

 

[Intercity 225]

Possibly off-topic but if Cameron had not called a referendum would he have survived? I believe leaders of coalitions usually get it in the neck from their own party.

The coalition was over by the time of the referendum, the Conservatives had a majority - albeit a small one.

And to answer your question I believe he would still be in power now, I also think that it’s likely that the Tories would’ve won their small majority in 2015 regardless of having the referendum pledge in their manifesto or not.

Reasons being the UKIP vote was as much a threat to Labour as it was the Conservatives (especially in the former industrial heartlands of Northern England), the Lib Dem vote had collapsed and Ed Miliband wasn’t seen as Prime Ministerial by significant swathes of the electorate - myself included.

I also don’t think Cameron should’ve resigned following the referendum, I even think it’s tantamount to a dereliction of duty. He was responsible for calling it and should’ve seen the whole process through to its conclusion, even though he was on the losing side he still had a valid mandate to continue as PM for another four years. It was a shame to see him behave so pathetically at the end of his tenure because prior to that point he’d been a good PM in my personal opinion.

What he should’ve done is create a special cross-party Brexit cabinet (separate to the governmental cabinet of ministers) made up entirely of leavers and tasked them with putting together a proper comprehensive plan for Brexit that would fulfil the promises made by the leave campaign and refuse to trigger Article 50 until it was completed and presented to the public. It’s likely that the 2020 general election would’ve then been based on Britain’s future in Europe and the electorate could choose to go with the Brexiters’ manifesto or choose to remain by voting for a party/parties that pledged to abandon Brexit. If he’d done that we wouldn’t be in this terrible mess we are in at the moment.

Then again he should’ve had the balls to stand up the Brexiters in the Conservatives in the first instance and not subjected the country to what was essentially a party issue. Regardless of the result, the referendum was always going to be divisive and damaging.

 

[rdeez]

"More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to stay in the EU", as reported by The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain

More than 100 Westminster constituencies that voted to leave the EU have now switched their support to Remain, according to a stark new analysis seen by the Observer.

In findings that could have a significant impact on the parliamentary battle of Brexit later this year, the study concludes that most seats in Britain now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.

The analysis, one of the most comprehensive assessments of Brexit sentiment since the referendum, suggests the shift has been driven by doubts among Labour voters who backed Leave.

Interestingly, constituencies switching to a remain majority according to the analysis include the seats of Brexit champions Boris Johnson and Michael Gove.

 

[mmh]

"Major new analysis"... "15,000 people"

I thought we'd given up believing opinion polls.

 

[AlterEgo]

Is that 15,000 overall? So that’s about 23 people per constituency?

 

[bnm]

We always give up on opinion polls when we don't like the answer they're giving. Particularly when the predicted outcome is very close.

However, this latest analysis shows strong swings. Likely to get stronger as we get closer to March 2019. Likely to get stronger if the Government doesn't stop infighting and doesn't start better communicating its plans for the brave new world. That should be worrying for the brexiteers. The battle for hearts and minds is being lost. The tide is turning.

To arrest that the government needs to be telling the public what the plan is. For all aspects of UK society. There isn't a defined plan yet and there's less than a year to go.

The Tory party continues its infighting, with a rudderless leader focusing on party unity ahead of doing what's best for the country. On that point... plus ça change?

 

[rdeez]

It should honestly be no surprise to anyone that the tide is turning against brexit as time goes on.

The so called "Project Fear" from the remain side was matched by "Project Blind Optimism" from the leave side. It swung the vote but mostly consisted of exaggerations and lies that glossed over the harsh realities of the process and the outcomes. As it becomes clear that actually, things aren't that easy and there is an awful lot at stake - coupled with the absolute ineffectiveness and bickering of the Tories - people are getting worried. And rightly so, IMO.

 

[bramling]

It should honestly be no surprise to anyone that the tide is turning against brexit as time goes on.

The so called "Project Fear" from the remain side was matched by "Project Blind Optimism" from the leave side. It swung the vote but mostly consisted of exaggerations and lies that glossed over the harsh realities of the process and the outcomes. As it becomes clear that actually, things aren't that easy and there is an awful lot at stake - coupled with the absolute ineffectiveness and bickering of the Tories - people are getting worried. And rightly so, IMO.

I don’t doubt that people are getting more and more doubtful of the ability of the current government to deliver anything competently - including Brexit. Likewise the opposition inspires no more confidence, in fact less to most people.

“I’m Theresa May and I think I’m the best person for the job” should never in a million years have got her to where she is, but being the none-of-the-above candidate in the right time at the right place has put her where she is now.

However the impression I get is people still very much want to leave the EU. The current lack of political talent is a major issue for this country, Brexit or no Brexit. Any failure to deliver that wish will just make this crisis quite a lot worse - we could see a generation of complete disdain for the political system, which is not a good prospect.

The sooner we just get out of the EU, without a deal if that’s what it takes, the sooner we can hopefully get back to a domestic agenda, which this country desperately needs. One of the many reasons for my leave vote was the fact that Britain’s relationship with the EU has been a major distraction and source of upset to our political system for pretty much my whole adult life - one which will clearly not cease whilst we are still members. I’ve grown increasingly sick of this over the years and will be glad when we have finally left.

 

[NSEFAN]

However the impression I get is people still very much want to leave the EU. The current lack of political talent is a major issue for this country, Brexit or no Brexit. Any failure to deliver that wish will just make this crisis quite a lot worse - we could see a generation of complete disdain for the political system, which is not a good prospect.

The sooner we just get out of the EU, without a deal if that’s what it takes, the sooner we can hopefully get back to a domestic agenda, which this country desperately needs. One of the many reasons for my leave vote was the fact that Britain’s relationship with the EU has been a major distraction and source of upset to our political system for pretty much my whole adult life - one which will clearly not cease whilst we are still members. I’ve grown increasingly sick of this over the years and will be glad when we have finally left.

Do you feel that, by being in the EU, this has allowed our own politicians to become lazy? One thing I'd like to see is the end of the career politician, instead having people who are more experienced in the "real" world and have had "real" jobs before going into politics. I'm not sure if/how leaving the EU would help, other than putting us into a dire situation, requiring a better calibre of politician to get us out of the mess.

 

[Howardh]

Do you feel that, by being in the EU, this has allowed our own politicians to become lazy? One thing I'd like to see is the end of the career politician, instead having people who are more experienced in the "real" world and have had "real" jobs before going into politics. I'm not sure if/how leaving the EU would help, other than putting us into a dire situation, requiring a better calibre of politician to get us out of the mess.

As we insist on paying MP's considerably less than their position within finance or industry would attain, we are either gonna get people who are not up to the job in said employment, or those who already heve made their fortune and can treat being an MP as a little hobby on the side, or those having jobs on top of being an MP.
All are dangerous, but it's what the country wants, Poundland Parliament. Now we will be whittling them down to 600 (eventually) maybe we could pay those left a bit more and attract a better/more qualified person?

 

[Senex]

Do you feel that, by being in the EU, this has allowed our own politicians to become lazy? One thing I'd like to see is the end of the career politician, instead having people who are more experienced in the "real" world and have had "real" jobs before going into politics. I'm not sure if/how leaving the EU would help, other than putting us into a dire situation, requiring a better calibre of politician to get us out of the mess.

I'd be very interested to know how far the same thing has happened in other EU countries. When I was young the majority of Labour MPs seemed to have a background of actually working in industry or having worked there before becoming trades union officers, and people like Harold Wilson with a purely academic background were very much the rarities. On the Tory side it was larger or smaller-scale businessmen and the inevitable brigade of lawyers before going into politics. The people who'd been members of their university Labour or Conservative Clubs, gone straight away to be political advisers and/or local councillors, and then into parliament with no experience of the worlds in which most of the rest of us work(ed) were very much the exceptions, as were the hereditary political families (in the Commons, of course, and with the exception of such as the Wedgewood-Benns and the Hoggs). Politicians have changed within a couple of generations from being people like us who after some normal life offer themselves to represent us to being people who think they are born to be politicians and have a divine right to rule over us. Can this possibly have been a change for the better?

 

[Senex]

As we insist on paying MP's considerably less than their position within finance or industry would attain, we are either gonna get people who are not up to the job in said employment, or those who already heve made their fortune and can treat being an MP as a little hobby on the side, or those having jobs on top of being an MP.
All are dangerous, but it's what the country wants, Poundland Parliament. Now we will be whittling them down to 600 (eventually) maybe we could pay those left a bit more and attract a better/more qualified person?

What is an MP worth? If they're just to be glorified ombudsmen for their constitutents because the system that should like after problems is failing, then they're vastly overpaid at the moment. especially when all that most of them do on policy issues is troop through the lobbies just as their whips tell them to, shewing not the slightest trace of any independence of mind of their own. If they are to consider policy on the grand scale and have a major say, free from the party whips, in the future of the state, then probably not nearly enough—but then would we need so many of them?

 

[fowler9]

You're welcome.

You did read the rest where I was sold on the brexit arguments at the time. Like the result it was a close run decision for me. I had, and have, no particular loyalty to either side, I went with what I thought was best at the time. I now realise the brexit arguments were fantasy. I now realise the brexiteers hadn't, and still haven't, got a clue how to leave the EU without causing long term pain to the country.

I thought long and hard, look at all the available evidence, listened to both sides, tried my best to wade through the hyperbole from both sides. Ultimately I deeply resented the fact David Cameron had used the electorate to fight a proxy war on behalf of the tories. He was too scared to lead his party with a decisive manifesto pledge of "in". He forgot that the UK is a representative democracy, not a plebiscite one.

With such a even split on what I thought was best for the country at the time, I had to find a USP to decide either way. So my vote was very narrowly in favour of brexit at the time of the ballot, but very strongly a message to David Cameron.

Apologies mate, that was a bit snide of me. At least you made the effort to vote.

 

[Howardh]

What is an MP worth? If they're just to be glorified ombudsmen for their constitutents because the system that should like after problems is failing, then they're vastly overpaid at the moment. especially when all that most of them do on policy issues is troop through the lobbies just as their whips tell them to, shewing not the slightest trace of any independence of mind of their own. If they are to consider policy on the grand scale and have a major say, free from the party whips, in the future of the state, then probably not nearly enough—but then would we need so many of them?

The one's we have are worth sod all. But if we could get someone of quality as, say, Transport Secretary, or Health Secretary etc and they could do the job properly they'd be worth twice the pay and more. Just look at who you had as lead negotiator for Britain's biggest transition since the war, what a complete and utter waste of a pair of underpants he was.

 

[muddythefish]

The sooner we just get out of the EU, without a deal if that’s what it takes, the sooner we can hopefully get back to a domestic agenda, which this country desperately needs. One of the many reasons for my leave vote was the fact that Britain’s relationship with the EU has been a major distraction and source of upset to our political system for pretty much my whole adult life - one which will clearly not cease whilst we are still members. I’ve grown increasingly sick of this over the years and will be glad when we have finally left.

Major distraction for the Tory party - no one else. They deserve to be out of government for a generation for the damage they have caused to this country.

 

[Groningen]

Andy Pardy had time on his hand. Source: Daily Telegraph

 

[najaB]

Andy Pardy had time on his hand. Source: Daily Telegraph

For context: Man quits job to spell out 'Stop Brexit' across Europe with GPS tracker

A consultant gave up his job to spell out the words "Stop Brexit" with his van after driving it across Europe with a GPS tracker.

Passionate pro-remainer Andy Pardy, 28, spent £6,000 on the VW Transporter and a further £5,000 on his trips to 32 countries.

The entire trip took four weeks to plan, and has seen him undertake tens of thousands of miles.

He told the New European: "I’ve always wanted to do something like this around Europe and I’ve been frustrated with the debate and the way Brexit’s been going over the last couple of years.

 

[Bromley boy]

For context: Man quits job to spell out 'Stop Brexit' across Europe with GPS tracker

What a waste of time (and what untidy handwriting).

When he finished his passport should have been revoked. Then he’d have been doomed to drive his white van around his beloved Europe forevermore.

 

[Groningen]

Leaving the EU is much more waste of time.