EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Mag_seven]

I've been waiting for this all evening! Can't believe it's taken so long to get through the irrelevant guff earlier.

The minister has just mentioned that TPE will be getting three new fleets! How many of those will be stopping at C-L-S.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Rational and reasonable debate there .

I don't think he's a plonker, but I do fear he's too far left (not dissimilar to Kinnock, say) to win a General Election.

Another Blairite (minus the cheesy grin and phony wars) would have a good chance of trouncing the Tories in an election.

 

[VioletEclipse]

While the Brexit debate is important, it is currently getting a lot more attention than the climate crisis, which will ultimately affect everyone on the planet, who isn't already affected, in a short space of time unless action is taken basically right now, while Brexit can be kicked into the long grass if need be, and TBH that's exactly what's happened in the last 2 years.

 

[Howardh]

Has she been asked to follow-on?

 

[DarloRich]

We need to stop all the silliness and immaturity and listening to clueless, stupid people who have no idea what they are talking about beyond meaningless slogans. We need to stop all the fantasy world stuff and the suggestions that X or Y could get a better and be honest about where we are and the depth of the brown stuff we have thrown ourselves into. We need to be honest about how negotiations work, where the power lies in negotiation and be realistic about what we can expect to receive as part of a deal and understand where the other side are prepared to give ground and where they are not. We need all the self serving, lying egotists to shut up and work to try and overcome these issues and we need Parliament and executive to sit down and sort out what they can agree one and try to persuade the EU to give some concessions. It is very easy to say what you don't want. Lets try and see what we DO want.

Time is running out and stupidity is running rampant. it is a complete shambles.

Oh and people, especially on the leave side, need to to educate themselves and stop reveling in ignorance. It was stupid to vote leave with no plan and on no intelligence but having cut our foot off I would prefer we saved the rest of the leg! The problem is we have wasted 2 years fannying about and there is no time left to fix this mess.

 

[krus_aragon]

Has she been asked to follow-on?

Yes, tomorrow (in the motion of no confidence).

 

[fowler9]

We need to stop all the silliness and immaturity and listening to clueless, stupid people who have no idea what they are talking about beyond meaningless slogans. We need to stop all the fantasy world stuff and the suggestions that X or Y could get a better and be honest about where we are and the depth of the brown stuff we have thrown ourselves into. We need to be honest about how negotiations work, where the power lies in negotiation and be realistic about what we can expect to receive as part of a deal and understand where the other side are prepared to give ground and where they are not. We need all the self serving, lying egotists to shut up and work to try and overcome these issues and we need Parliament and executive to sit down and sort out what they can agree one and try to persuade the EU to give some concessions. It is very easy to say what you don't want. Lets try and see what we DO want.

Time is running out and stupidity is running rampant. it is a complete shambles.

Oh and people, especially on the leave side, need to to educate themselves and stop reveling in ignorance. It was stupid to vote leave with no plan and on no intelligence but having cut our foot off I would prefer we saved the rest of the leg! The problem is we have wasted 2 years fannying about and there is no time left to fix this mess.

Just give up mate. We are s*****d. There is no better deal. There never was.

 

[Ianno87]

Time is running out and stupidity is running rampant. it is a complete shambles.

Oh and people, especially on the leave side, need to to educate themselves and stop reveling in ignorance. It was stupid to vote leave with no plan and on no intelligence but having cut our foot off I would prefer we saved the rest of the leg! The problem is we have wasted 2 years fannying about and there is no time left to fix this mess.

Nah, the latest nonsense being spouted by Brexiteers (in obviously increasing desparation) is "Well, NOBODY voted to leave with a deal anyway, did they?!"

 

[Mag_seven]

Oh and people, especially on the leave side, need to to educate themselves and stop reveling in ignorance.

I wish the BBC/Sky etc would stop seeking the opinion of beer swilling idiots down the Dog and Duck who keep advocating leaving on WTO rules when its clear they don't have a clue what they are talking about.

 

[bramling]

Corbyn just wants to be in government whatever the cost, whatever the facts of the negotiation position the UK holds. Since the last election he's been giving the impression of someone that feels entitled to power, regardless of the fact that Labour didn't actually win. Total shambles of a politician.

At work just now the general theme from everyone in the room is “we don’t want to vote for either party”. That is deeply worrying.

 

[ainsworth74]

I wish the BBC/Sky etc would stop seeking the opinion of beer swilling idiots down the Dog and Duck who keep advocating leaving on WTO rules when its clear they don't have a clue what they are talking about.

I wish the media at large would knock it off with vox pops in general to be quite honest. If I wanted Betty or Ernie of Generic High Street Four's point of view I'd talk to people I know! When I watch or read the news I want analysis, comment and opinion from people who are actually either experts in the field (or a tangental field) or are directly involved in the matter.

 

[Esker-pades]

There was an excellent point made in an introductory lecture I had today on a course regarding British Politics which was "we are here for reasoned scholarly debate, not a chat down the pub". Some journalists would do well to follow that advice.

 

[LAX54]

If....big IF, there was another referendum, would the result be the same ? would it be more in favour of leaving or less ? The public know a lot more now than they did 2 years ago, and of course 2 years ago, NEITHER side told the whole truth and nothing but the truth !
Would the new result be different ?

 

[Esker-pades]

If....big IF, there was another referendum, would the result be the same ? would it be more in favour of leaving or less ? The public know a lot more now than they did 2 years ago, and of course 2 years ago, NEITHER side told the whole truth and nothing but the truth !
Would the new result be different ?

Literally nobody knows. The BBC coverage this evening had both Nigel Farage and Alastair Campbell advocating a second referendum. Both sides could well win it IF it happened. Caroline Lucas (one of the few competent remain campaigners in my opinion) has published an article saying that the remain campaign cannot repeat the same mistakes that it made before. A remain vote is far from certain, and the assumption that it is very dangerous.

There will be people on both sides who have not changed their opinion (the vast majority). There will then be leavers who either voted leave for reasons other than the EU (there are several people who voted leave to "put a bomb under the Tory party" as one person I know put it) or leavers who have been convinved over the past 2.5 years that leaving is a bad idea. There will then be remainers who switch to leave either on a point of democratic principle or because they have been convinced that leaving is better than remaining. It really is anybody's game. Plus, this massive remain youth vote which apparently exists could well not turn up (I look at my fellow young people in disgust). Add in the people who didn't vote, and the people who really cannot be bothered with any more Brexit (there are quite a few of those), we are left with far too many variables to properly predict anything.

 

[krus_aragon]

If....big IF, there was another referendum, would the result be the same ? would it be more in favour of leaving or less ? The public know a lot more now than they did 2 years ago, and of course 2 years ago, NEITHER side told the whole truth and nothing but the truth !
Would the new result be different ?

My suggested approach would be to ask the electorate to choose from three options (remain, accept withdrawal agreement, no-deal exit), and rank them in order of preference. That would let the public vote in as informed a manner as possible (as compared with the previous referendum) on a list of existing options, and also give an outright majority through an instant runoff. No room to say "this isn't what people voted for", etc.

The trouble is that it's a more complicated voting method than has been used before for referenda, and the Alternative Vote system wasn't exactly welcomed with open arms in 2011.

 

[Cowley]

I wish the media at large would knock it off with vox pops in general to be quite honest. If I wanted Betty or Ernie of Generic High Street Four's point of view I'd talk to people I know! When I watch or read the news I want analysis, comment and opinion from people who are actually either experts in the field (or a tangental field) or are directly involved in the matter.

Couldn't agree more. It's one of the worst aspects of the way news is put together these days.
They should all be shuffled off to a modern version of 'That's Life'...

 

[DarloRich]

I wish the BBC/Sky etc would stop seeking the opinion of beer swilling idiots down the Dog and Duck who keep advocating leaving on WTO rules when its clear they don't have a clue what they are talking about.

I wish the media at large would knock it off with vox pops in general to be quite honest. If I wanted Betty or Ernie of Generic High Street Four's point of view I'd talk to people I know! When I watch or read the news I want analysis, comment and opinion from people who are actually either experts in the field (or a tangental field) or are directly involved in the matter.

agreed - do they seek out simpletons or do only simpletons take part?

Just give up mate. We are s*****d. There is no better deal. There never was.

That is my point - we need to be honest and stop listening to chancers and liars about how they would do better.

 

[Esker-pades]

agreed - do they seek out simpletons or do only simpletons take part?

What kind of person is in the pub at 11am on a Tuesday? That appears to be the target market for vox-pops.

 

[EM2]

If....big IF, there was another referendum, would the result be the same ?

What would the question be?
May Deal or Remain?
No Deal or Remain?
May Deal or No Deal?
Or one or more of the multiple other Brexit possibilities?

 

[Ianno87]

I am not, and have never been pro-Brexit but I didn't think it would become what it is now, which is a joke for the rest of the world to tease the UK by.

After June 2016, a small part of me was open minded and thought there was a small chance we might, just might, get our act together and make a success out of Brexit. I think there's virtually no chance now due to the credibility we've lost.

At work just now the general theme from everyone in the room is “we don’t want to vote for either party”. That is deeply worrying.

I honestly wouldn't have the faintest idea who I'd vote for right now if a GE was called. Even as a Remainer, I find the LibDems 'Stop Brexit' vibe naive and overly simplistic (you can't just ignore the fact that Leave won in 2016, and probably would still perform well if there were a 2nd Referendum)

To be honest, a party that did offer a 2nd Referendum to re-verify public attitude to Brexit, but an absolutely clear proposal for what exactly they would do in any outcome, would get my vote. Specifically if (I suspect it would) the result falls in or near the 50/50 'Grey Area' and how the Leave/Remain tension would be addressed in this case. And also a commitment to No 'No Deal' in any cicumstance, even if that meant revoking Article 50 and trying again when there's a proper plan and consensus as to what we actually want. But then pigs might fly.

 

[nidave]

Never seen any facts to back up a disaster, it's all project fear. I did post some time ago the food goods that would be cheaper.

You mean the article in the sun they had to issue a retraction from as it was all lies???
My personal favorite part...

The article also stated that we pay trade charges on more than 13,000 items from outside the EU.

In fact, for many of these goods, no tariffs or charges are payable.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/uncategorized/5897269/clarification-vote-for-bargains/

 

[nidave]

Let's remind ourselves of what we were told about brexit shall we...
"Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market" - Daniel Hannan MEP

"Only a madman would actually leave the Market" - Owen Paterson MP, Vote Leave backer

"Wouldn't it be terrible if we were really like Norway and Switzerland? Really? They're rich. They're happy. They're self-governing" - Nigel Farage, Ukip leader

"The Norwegian option, the EEA option, I think that it might be initally attractive for some business people" - Matthew Elliot, Vote Leave chief executive

"Increasingly, the Norway option looks the best for the UK" - Arron Banks, Leave.EU founder

 

[Esker-pades]

It is fairly amazing how much the leave position has changed in the intervening period. That is the biggest point of suspicion for me.

 

[Ianno87]

If....big IF, there was another referendum, would the result be the same ? would it be more in favour of leaving or less ? The public know a lot more now than they did 2 years ago, and of course 2 years ago, NEITHER side told the whole truth and nothing but the truth !
Would the new result be different ?

I think it would be a swing towards Remain, but only to a very slight overall majority. Slight enough such that it'll be difficult to say the result was any more valid or democratic than in 2016 (knowledge gained aside). Hence my other post as to an absolutely clear plan as to what would happen if this were the case, if there indeed was a 2nd ref, that would satisfy and recognise both sides. Somehow.

 

[nidave]

It is fairly amazing how much the leave position has changed in the intervening period. That is the biggest point of suspicion for me.

I suspect rich people will become even richer by no a deal brexit and people will suffer but still think it's a good thing.

 

[Esker-pades]

I suspect rich people will become even richer by no a deal brexit and people will suffer but still think it's a good thing.

It is the defference to big business that I worry about. If a no-deal Brexit happens, that will be the position we find ourselves in and the vast majority of people will be worse off.

 

[bramling]

After June 2016, a small part of me was open minded and thought there was a small chance we might, just might, get our act together and make a success out of Brexit. I think there's virtually no chance now due to the credibility we've lost.



I honestly wouldn't have the faintest idea who I'd vote for right now if a GE was called. Even as a Remainer, I find the LibDems 'Stop Brexit' vibe naive and overly simplistic (you can't just ignore the fact that Leave won in 2016, and probably would still perform well if there were a 2nd Referendum)

To be honest, a party that did offer a 2nd Referendum to re-verify public attitude to Brexit, but an absolutely clear proposal for what exactly they would do in any outcome, would get my vote. Specifically if (I suspect it would) the result falls in or near the 50/50 'Grey Area' and how the Leave/Remain tension would be addressed in this case. And also a commitment to No 'No Deal' in any cicumstance, even if that meant revoking Article 50 and trying again when there's a proper plan and consensus as to what we actually want. But then pigs might fly.

The LibDem position I can sort of understand as to be fair they’ve always been very consistently pro-EU, although as you in my view rightly say it’s simplistic. Their position is also ultimately irrelevant.

The other two parties have massive problems. One has made a mess of things, and have a leader who simply doesn’t connect well with people. The other party has also been like a bull in a china shop, flip flops from one position to another, and has a top team many would consider unelectable. Corbyn shrieking his head off in the Commons just doesn’t cut it - all it does is make him look silly.

Due to all the above I don’t think a general election can seriously be considered to be a workable solution, I think many people would really struggle with who to vote for. This could produce a highly arbitrary result, which I don’t think is in anyone’s interest. Likewise a second referendum wouldn’t resolve the issue unless the result was very decisively one way or other - and I don’t think that will happen.

One wonders what would happen if we didn’t have this red line over the NI border. What do we think would happen if that red line wasn’t there?

 

[nidave]

I see the daily mail is gloating that the £ is moving after saying a weak £ was a good t

The LibDem position I can sort of understand as to be fair they’ve always been very consistently pro-EU, although as you in my view rightly say it’s simplistic. Their position is also ultimately irrelevant.

The other two parties have massive problems.
One has made a mess of things, and have a leader who simply doesn’t connect well with people. The other party has also been like a bull in a china shop, flip flops from one position to another, and has a top team many would consider unelectable.

Due to all the above I don’t think a general election can seriously be considered to be a workable solution, I think many people would really struggle with who to vote for. This could produce a highly arbitrary result, which I don’t think is in anyone’s interest. Likewise a second referendum wouldn’t resolve the issue unless the result was very decisively one way or other - and I don’t think that will happen.

One wonders what would happen if we didn’t have this red line over the NI border. What do we think would happen if that red line wasn’t there?

I do agree with a lot of what you have said. An election is probably going to result in a hung parlement.
I think a 2nd vote could work. N. Ireland is going to be Intresting. Remember Sinn Fein could still take up thier seats in Westminster.

I wonder if the conservatives were not so desperate and reliant on the dup if they would just abandon n. Ireland as too hard. They did vote against the good Friday agreement referendum and the devolution referendums. So Thier "will of the people" is flexible.

 

[bramling]

I see the daily mail is gloating that the £ is moving after saying a weak £ was a good t

I do agree with a lot of what you have said. An election is probably going to result in a hung parlement.
I think a 2nd vote could work. N. Ireland is going to be Intresting. Remember Sinn Fein could still take up thier seats in Westminster.

I wonder if the conservatives were not so desperate and reliant on the dup if they would just abandon n. Ireland as too hard. They did vote against the good Friday agreement referendum and the devolution referendums. So Thier "will of the people" is flexible.

If we work on the basis that the biggest issue seems to be the backstop, and the sticking point behind the backstop is the border. Is there *any* prospect of the three sides (ROI, UK and NI political parties) finding a solution? Surely it should be possible to have a border which allows unchecked travel for those entitled?

 

[Howardh]

If....big IF, there was another referendum, would the result be the same ? would it be more in favour of leaving or less ? The public know a lot more now than they did 2 years ago, and of course 2 years ago, NEITHER side told the whole truth and nothing but the truth !
Would the new result be different ?

Well, we do now know what we'll lose, and we know what we'll gain.

The LibDem position I can sort of understand as to be fair they’ve always been very consistently pro-EU, although as you in my view rightly say it’s simplistic. Their position is also ultimately irrelevant.

The other two parties have massive problems. One has made a mess of things, and have a leader who simply doesn’t connect well with people. The other party has also been like a bull in a china shop, flip flops from one position to another, and has a top team many would consider unelectable. Corbyn shrieking his head off in the Commons just doesn’t cut it - all it does is make him look silly.

Due to all the above I don’t think a general election can seriously be considered to be a workable solution, I think many people would really struggle with who to vote for. This could produce a highly arbitrary result, which I don’t think is in anyone’s interest. Likewise a second referendum wouldn’t resolve the issue unless the result was very decisively one way or other - and I don’t think that will happen.

One wonders what would happen if we didn’t have this red line over the NI border. What do we think would happen if that red line wasn’t there?

Right at the start I said the Ireland border would ultimately prevent any kind of hard or even medium Brexit. Looks like I was on the right lines and if a few mps had listened to a mere pleb like me, we could heve saved ourselves £bs in prep and spent it in the, oh, I dunno....NHS....just a thought?