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EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

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Giugiaro

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The Lib Dems would be better if they just stuck to the norm. It's not the EU that's going to solve the Brexit shambles, either they like Brexit or not.

Don't exactly want the EU to come to a political standstill because of Brexit like the House of Commons.
 
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bramling

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To be fair you aren't anywhere near the type of voter they are trying to attract, so offending you is very much water off a duck's back to them. Their position on the "democratic" nature of the dodgy mass market research the government did a couple of years ago is very clear, and entirely consistent with the "bollocks" message.

In terms of the t-shirts I thought it looked a bit like a rubbish stag-do, and were pretty rubbish. They didn't remind me of the tactics of the Nazi party though, so that's something they have over the Brexit party's display of backgammon

It does seem to me to be a daft strategy. Assuming there’s no general election in the immediate future, which there won’t be unless (1) the issue is forced in some way or (2) there’s a “Boris bounce” over the next few months, it *is* looking increasingly likely that Britain will be out of the EU at some point within the next year, probably on some rehashed version of May’s deal, with NI having a different setup to GB.

Once that happens, any traction gained on the back of bollocks’d off remain votes is highly likely to be lost, especially in what would probably be a traditional close-run Labour versus Conservatives election. One assumes remain sentiment in Scotland will continue to be hoovered up by the SNP.
 

takno

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It does seem to me to be a daft strategy. Assuming there’s no general election in the immediate future, which there won’t be unless (1) the issue is forced in some way or (2) there’s a “Boris bounce” over the next few months, it *is* looking increasingly likely that Britain will be out of the EU at some point within the next year, probably on some rehashed version of May’s deal, with NI having a different setup to GB.

Once that happens, any traction gained on the back of bollocks’d off remain votes is highly likely to be lost, especially in what would probably be a traditional close-run Labour versus Conservatives election. One assumes remain sentiment in Scotland will continue to be hoovered up by the SNP.
I admire the optimism in the belief that the nation's indifferent elderly can force us into a Brexit that most of the population don't want and a massive proportion actively despise, and that if it happens we will somehow be back to business as usual.

In fact the first order of business for a massive proportion of the population will be to get back in, and that will be far more important than a tribal battle between a comically outdated Tory party and a comically outdated Labour party. We're done with that now - Cameron broke it.
 

bramling

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I admire the optimism in the belief that the nation's indifferent elderly can force us into a Brexit that most of the population don't want and a massive proportion actively despise, and that if it happens we will somehow be back to business as usual.

In fact the first order of business for a massive proportion of the population will be to get back in, and that will be far more important than a tribal battle between a comically outdated Tory party and a comically outdated Labour party. We're done with that now - Cameron broke it.

Does anyone *seriously* believe re-entry is viable let alone sensible?
 

Bantamzen

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Does anyone *seriously* believe re-entry is viable let alone sensible?

Sorry, when did UK politics go back to being sensible? Ever since the referendum was called politics here has been descending into playground spats, culminating it the turning of backs and stupid tee-shirts on display this week. The EU would never have us back when we leave, and frankly I wouldn't blame them. Brexit has destroyed our political system, is destroying any confidence in the UK, and made us one of the biggest laughing stocks on the globe. Were it not for the giant Umpa Lumpa over the pond, we would have the laughing stocking number one position.

We haven't left yet. We can revoke Article 50 at any point and retain all our opt outs etc. as the European Court of Justice ruled.

We could technically draw it to a halt, but Parliament would be even more chaotic than now if this happened. We are way too far collided with the iceberg, we now have to try an organise ourselves into what lifeboats there are whilst the Brexiteers continue to move deck chairs & play on
 

Intercity 225

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Does anyone *seriously* believe re-entry is viable let alone sensible?

Yes, I've made a few assumptions below but nothing outlandish and think the following is really quite possible:

1. The UK leaves the EU on the 31st October and moves onto a transition period without a fixed end date whilst a new free trade agreement is negotiated. A transition period is essential, no deal with no transition period would lead to the return of customs posts on the NI/ROI border and absolute chaos not only at Dover but all our major port towns and cities. There would be similar disruption across the EU too, particularly at Calais and Rotterdam. In a nutshell, everybody loses with no deal and no transition so it's unlikely to ultimately happen.

2. Both candidates to be PM are espousing a technology-led solution to the Irish border problem, realistically this is going to take at least a decade to design>develop>test>roll out. Both candidates are also pledging to ditch the Irish backstop, the only way to do this without creating border controls is to keep the whole of the UK in the single market/customs union whilst the new technology-led border solution is completed.

3. There will be at least one election during this period when the whole Brexit debate will remain a major talking point. Public opinion will ever increasingly start to see Brexit as a mistake as we'll still be subject to EU regulations without any say in shaping them. During this period it'll be easier for us to rejoin than to continue with the technology-led solution and a major party will commit to reentry as a policy.
 

takno

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Does anyone *seriously* believe re-entry is viable let alone sensible?
What makes you think it isn't? I mean obviously we'd be better off not leaving, but there's very little reason to believe life outside the EU would be better - very substantially worse looks like the most likely state of affairs. In that environment why would we not want to rejoin? Sure, we might have to give up the rebate and join Schengen, and possibly consider joining the Euro, but none of those are actually the dramatic steps that they are currently painted as being. The rebate is nothing compared to what Brexit has already cost, joining Schengen would frankly make everybody's life easier, and the pound could well be a crumbling pile of rubble within a year anyway
 

bramling

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What makes you think it isn't? I mean obviously we'd be better off not leaving, but there's very little reason to believe life outside the EU would be better - very substantially worse looks like the most likely state of affairs. In that environment why would we not want to rejoin? Sure, we might have to give up the rebate and join Schengen, and possibly consider joining the Euro, but none of those are actually the dramatic steps that they are currently painted as being. The rebate is nothing compared to what Brexit has already cost, joining Schengen would frankly make everybody's life easier, and the pound could well be a crumbling pile of rubble within a year anyway

Joining the single currency is a complete no-no for a start, it’s rare to hear even the most pro-EU people advocating that. For a country which has relied on monetary policy for the last generation, I don’t think losing the ability to control that would be viable. It would only work if our economy was completely and permanently in step with the rest of Europe. This has hardly been a resounding success thus far in the single currency’s history.

And from a political perspective, having to sign up to Schengen or losing the rebate is hardly going to be attractive to people.
 

Esker-pades

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[QUOTE="bramling, post: 4089964, member: 14132"]Joining the single currency is a complete no-no for a start, it’s rare to hear even the most pro-EU people advocating that. For a country which has relied on monetary policy for the last generation, I don’t think losing the ability to control that would be viable. It would only work if our economy was completely and permanently in step with the rest of Europe. This has hardly been a resounding success thus far in the single currency’s history.[/QUOTE]
My emphasis.

This is one of the most common myths. New member states do not have to join the Euro immediatley. Instead
European Commission said:
The Treaty does not specify a particular timetable for joining the euro area, but leaves it to Member States to develop their own strategies for meeting the condition for euro adoption. Seven of the 13 Member States who joined the EU since 2004 have already joined the euro area, most recently Lithuania on 1 January 2015.
(Source: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-...nlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en )

Only Denmark and the UK have specific opt-outs from ever joining the Euro, but 7 other member states currently do not have the Euro as their currency, and are only "expected to" (IE: they won't actually have to).
 

edwin_m

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I really find it hard to take the Lib Dems seriously. Who’s the leader and what’s the bandwagon this week?! ;)
Unlike the two "main" parties the Lib Dem position has been consistent all the way through. And a bit of Anglo-Saxon anatomy is pretty mild when the other side has produced the likes of a candidate who said a rape threat was a joke, not to mention inspring the actual murder of an MP.
 

takno

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Joining the single currency is a complete no-no for a start, it’s rare to hear even the most pro-EU people advocating that. For a country which has relied on monetary policy for the last generation, I don’t think losing the ability to control that would be viable. It would only work if our economy was completely and permanently in step with the rest of Europe. This has hardly been a resounding success thus far in the single currency’s history.

And from a political perspective, having to sign up to Schengen or losing the rebate is hardly going to be attractive to people.
Monetary policy has always been a pretty useless lever for us at the best of times, and has reached the point of virtual irrelevance over the last 10 years, with near zero interest rates and billions in hapless quantitive easing being powerless to stimulate a fairly moribund economy while inflation has been an ever-present threat which we have no ability to react to.

Whilst Greece has taken a battering, they may actually have been in a lot more trouble with a floating currency, since the rest of Europe would have had less incentive to bail them out, and some (in the case of Greece) quite badly-needed structural improvements to government finances would have happened later. We wouldn't have had any of these issues at all, since we've been running much more closely to what the Euro requires anyway.

Most people don't push the Euro because, as has been rightly pointed out by others, it's fairly easy to avoid if you don't want to join, and because it's an argument that's not worth having. Pointing out that joining the Euro isn't actually a problematic thing to do isn't particularly controversial though, and wouldn't cause most informed people to lose sleep.

In the case of Scotland, if you think Schengen, the Euro, rebates or anything else would stop us from joining then you don't really understand Scotland.

On the question of whether the EU would accept a rejoining UK or a newly independent Scotland, that isn't something anybody can predict with any certainty. A large country on the edge of the block that hasn't diverged significantly from European standards though would seem to me like it was worth making a special case for, and in the case of an independent Scotland it would be worth doing just to further rub in the costs of leaving. Either way there is nothing that would damp down demands in the UK to get the ball rolling and rejoin.
 

EM2

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After Mr. Johnson's latest wibble:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49065490
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Mr Johnson insisted a deal could be reached by 31 October if the country "rediscovers its sense of mission".

"We can come out of the EU on 31 October, and yes, we certainly have the technology to do so," he wrote.

"What we need now is the will and the spirit."
...a thought occurs.
If he has the technological solutions to solve the Northern Irish border question...why is he so fearful of the backstop when those same technological solutions would automatically get you out of it?
 

Bletchleyite

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Well, a deal could be reached today, by accepting the one on offer. It may not be ideal, but what it does do is make the soundbite factually correct if not quite how it seems.
 

Carlisle

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If he has the technological solutions to solve the Northern Irish border question...why is he so fearful of the backstop when those same technological solutions would automatically get you out of it?
He’s probably aware an internationally agreed technological solution alone doesn’t exist, & mightn’t do for a while if ever in many of our lifetimes , but feels the UKs status & history is significant enough to try & push for a bespoke solution in these circumstances.
 
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Xenophon PCDGS

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As something of a brief aside, I now wonder as to the age of the male (who seems to be aware when TV discussions are in progress between a presenter and a politician take place outside the area of the Houses of Parliament) who is often heard issuing forth with unearthly banshee-type moans that in the old days would have guaranteed him a place in a Hammer horror film.
 

mmh

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As something of a brief aside, I now wonder as to the age of the male (who seems to be aware when TV discussions are in progress between a presenter and a politician take place outside the area of the Houses of Parliament) who is often heard issuing forth with unearthly banshee-type moans that in the old days would have guaranteed him a place in a Hammer horror film.
Steve Bray, he's 50:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bray_(activist)

He managed to interrupt a pause in Theresa May's farewell address today with his "Stop Brexit" drone, which was handled nicely.

Phillip May: "That wasn't me!"
Theresa May: "I think the answer to that is 'I don't think so!'"
 

mmh

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Nothing wrong with him

Nothing wrong with protest, sure, but I wouldn't say that means there's nothing wrong with him. Have you watched or read anything by him? He comes across as a touch unhinged.

“I fell out with all my friends,” he says. “They were all leavers and I binned the lot of them. They turned out to be racist and xenophobic. Lifelong friends, gone.”

(From https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...full-time-job-for-activist-1.3845903?mode=amp )

That's tragic, not heroic.
 

takno

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Nothing wrong with protest, sure, but I wouldn't say that means there's nothing wrong with him. Have you watched or read anything by him? He comes across as a touch unhinged.



(From https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...full-time-job-for-activist-1.3845903?mode=amp )

That's tragic, not heroic.
I agree that my immediate reaction is probably more sympathy than anything else.

His form is protest feels rather dignified and quaint in an era of bullying and intimidation, but at the same time he's dedicating his whole life to a lonely protest which is unlikely to make any difference. But then who knows, maybe it gets him out of the house and he's having a whale of a time meeting new people. There are certainly more boring things people have to do full time to earn a living
 

bramling

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I agree that my immediate reaction is probably more sympathy than anything else.

His form is protest feels rather dignified and quaint in an era of bullying and intimidation, but at the same time he's dedicating his whole life to a lonely protest which is unlikely to make any difference. But then who knows, maybe it gets him out of the house and he's having a whale of a time meeting new people. There are certainly more boring things people have to do full time to earn a living

To be honest, I wish he would be arrested and taken away (although I realise the implications this has for free speech / democratic protest). I'm sick of hearing his moronic rubbish every time I watch the news.
 

Bantamzen

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To be honest, I wish he would be arrested and taken away (although I realise the implications this has for free speech / democratic protest). I'm sick of hearing his moronic rubbish every time I watch the news.

Arrested for what? Being slightly annoying? That's a bit extreme don't you think?

Watching the news over the last couple of days I'm already sick of new cabinet members happily chirping on about leaving on 31/10 as if it were some party we were going to, instead of one of the most critical political and economic decisions this country has ever made. Perhaps they too should be arrested under the "Being Annoying In Public Bill 2019".... ;)
 

edwin_m

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Does anyone *seriously* believe re-entry is viable let alone sensible?
In the six months or so I've been following this thread I've *never* seen anyone put forward a credible justification why leaving is sensible, so it's a bit rich to be asking the other side to provide evidence to support their view. Honouring the "will of the people" isn't a credible reason if that decision was based on lack of clarity on the details and consequences, and on a large degree of outright deception. So yes we'd be far better in than out, but leaving and re-entering is a much more difficult path than remaining.
 

takno

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To be honest, I wish he would be arrested and taken away (although I realise the implications this has for free speech / democratic protest). I'm sick of hearing his moronic rubbish every time I watch the news.
It's hardly his fault the news broadcasters have decided to do so much of their coverage from an environment they can't control. People like Steve aren't new, it's the broadcasters camped out on parliament Square who are.

To be honest I've found TV news a struggle to watch news on any channels for a few years now. The vox pops relentlessly parroting whatever line the producer wants to represent as "the voice of the public", politicians being interviewed openly spouting lies and the interviewers seeming like they haven't got the knowledge or possibly confidence to call them out on it. Steve in the background barely even registers.
 
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